Random Thoughts: 2018 Playoff Edition

I’m sitting on a bus full of 8th graders, on my way to the District of Columbia. That’s right, I’m chaperoning my oldest on her class trip to the nation’s capital. After staying up to watch the Dubs knock out the Spurs, I thought I could catch some shut-eye this morning, but all the kids are screaming at each other wondering who has a working WiFi hot-spot or who just killed who in Fortnight. Since sleep isn’t happening, what better time to pen some random NBA thoughts?

What was I thinking doing this in the midst of a Cavalier playoff run? I guess I thought the Cavs would be wrapping up the first round tonight, but the Pacers have proven a tougher matchup than many of us thought. Still, George Hill’s back aside, the Cavs are rounding into form, and the defense has improved markedly. They just need to make a few adjustments.

First, the Cavs need to run more high post offense. They look great when Larry Nance does it, and we all know how good Love is at the elbows too. This should be the basis of the o, especially when James is on the bench. Hell, Miami runs 2/3 of their bench offense through ridiculous human being, Kelly Olynyk, and a never ending array of dribble hand-offs. The Cavs should be able to do the same and use Love and Larry to set up the wings and run a lot of hi-lows.

Of course, I don’t trust Jordan Clarkson to be able to get the Cavs into this offense, which is why if George Hill can’t go, he should be starting. Calderon has pretty much been a disaster as a starter, mainly because the Cavs can’t hide him on anyone in a series that has featured much more D than O.

Stats by BasketballReference.com

Clarkson has been playing decent defense at times and his length can help the Cavs’ trap schemes. He can also get out on the break and will defer enough with the starters to not try to make so many yolo plays with the ball. Also, he’s a solid catch-and-shoot guy.

Also if George Hill can’t go, this game is screaming for some Cedi minutes. The dude can’t be any worse as a ball handler than Rodney Hood has been, and he can’t be any worse in net rating than Calderon has been.

Why won’t Cedi get minutes? I think we all know the answer. This playoffs has pretty much blown up the notion that rookies can’t play in the offs. Utah, Boston, and Philly are being led by their rookie stars. And Osman and Zizic aren’t Hugh schoolers or even college freshmen. They’ve been pros in Europe for years too. Their experience is probably analogous to the dozen or or so second year NBA-ers getting serious run in these playoffs: Jaeylen  Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, DeJounte Murray, Jakob Poeltle, Fred Vanvleet, and Paskal Siakam. There’s no reason other than stubbornness that the Cavs’ rookies can’t play. Of course, they’ve sat for so long, who knows what kind of rhythm they’d be in. I know that I might as well be wishing for peace in the middle East when it comes to Lue finding minutes for Zizic, but I’d like to think there’s at least an opportunity for Osman.

Speaking of Malcolm Brogdon… Former CtB EIC Kevin Hetrick penned an interesting tweet the other day.

Alternate timeline…Cavs back out of Kyrie trade after IT hip medical report, and the Brogdon, Korver, Middleton, Lebron, Love Cavs destroy the NBA. The rest of the league forfeits and the Cavs are named NBA champs before the end of April.

— Kevin Hetrick (@hetrick46) April 23, 2018

It’s certainly entertaining to think about alternate time lines. Personally, I don’t think that offer was ever actually on the table. Middleton has been especially awesome for the Bucks dropping 25 a night in the playoffs on 68 TS%. Long term though, would we rather have Ante, Larry, whoever the Cavs take with the 3rd pick (see what I did there?) and Rodney Hood? The answer, of course, all depends on if LeBron stays this summer. I’m not rehashing the LeXit discussion, but there’s some long term talent there.

Rodney Hood though.. is there a worse game face in the NBA? His expression vacillates between “my Mom just dropped me off for my first day of kindergarten” and “I’m scheduled to die in the next scene of this horror movie.” The dude needs a snarl in the worst way. He also needs some consistent sets to get him going.

Why the heck isn’t Larry Nance playing more? He is second on the team in net rating this series yet fourth in minutes at 22 a night: a full 12 minutes behind JR and Kevin Love. Yes, his foul rate is still a little high, but he’s only averaging 2.3 a night. He’s got a couple more to give. We saw Larry shine in the second quarter of game three, by igniting the D, starting the break, running the floor and finishing. It’s not complicated and he does it well.

The Cavs have been barely surviving the Jeff Green experience. He’s -14 in net rating, second worst on the team (I don’t count TT and Cedi as they’ve hardly played). His 35 TS% is abysmal and a large part of why the Pacers have won two games, and his defense has been meh. If Lue insists on playing him, let’s let him run some at the guard. At least when he’s initiating the offense, he tends to get to the rim and the ball doesn’t come back to him much. That’s, I guess, the best you can ask for.

The Cavs would probably be up 3-1 if they could shoot. Long minutes for LeBron, stagnant late offense, and Indy defense all contribute, but the Cavs focus and energy on the defensive side of the ball is also part of the equation. It’s taking away from their shooting, and that’s OK. The Cavs haven’t been giving a crap for 2/3 of the regular season. It’s taken them some time to tune up to be able to shoot and defend. Still some pump and jumps and maybe some pump and drives or give’n’goes could definitely work against Indy’s kamikaze closeouts.

Everyone worried about LeBron’s minutes: the extended minutes early in the playoffs are good. It’ll get him ready for the wars to come. If he can keep pitching in games with just one turnover, it’ll help even more. Can’t wait for the other guys to get into playoff shape too.

Rebounding  wise, the Cavs are mostly hanging with Indy but they sure could use some help, and when the wings crash for o-boards  it usually ends up in Indy fast breaks. One guy they could use is the greatest defensive rebounding guard in the NBA whose teams always improve their rebounding when he’s on the floor because he always boxes out someone. Yeah, it’s been a pleasure to watch Delly running with the Bucks. Even though neither Boston nor Milwaukee can win on the others’ floor, and Boston will ultimately prevail, I still love watching plays like this.

https://youtu.be/L-I2SPbkW7E

Out West, it looks wide open. If Steph isn’t healthy, the Warriors are no lock to beat New Orleans, and Utah is going to give the rockets all they can handle. Donovan Mitchell will be an MVP candidate as soon as next year.

Add Ettore Messina’s name to the list of hot coaching candidates. The Spurs looked quite poised in their game four victory and game five loss. Messina wore the moniker “best coach in Europe” even before David Blatt, and two years under the best in the biz will prepare him to deal with NBA egos far better than David Blatt did in his first year. While I’d like to see David Fizdale if the Cavs don’t win it all and Bron stays, Ettore would be a nice choice if Bron leaves.

The other thought on the blog: do the Blazers blow it up? McCollum and a few other Blazers would be a nice fit in Cleveland. That doesn’t really seem like Paul Allen’s style though.

Well, we’re almost to DC, where I can’t believe the Wizards have tied it up with Toronto. The absolute worst thing the Wiz could do is a win this one and make their ownership think they’re in anything other than NBA no man’s land.

As for the Cavs I’d like to see them blow this one open tonight, but I’ll settle for a healthy win any way I can get it.