Zhaire Smith: Zhaire Who?

I’ll be the first to admit, I don’t watch college basketball. Over the past couple of years, there has been no need to. The Cavs haven’t had a meaningful draft pick since they traded away Andrew Wiggins in 2014. Fortunately, the world loves me and my first draft feature is on Zhaire Smith.

I don’t live under a rock, I know some of the big names like Mo Bamba, Colin Sexton, and Trae Young. Zhaire wasn’t a player I’d heard of at all before just a few days ago. It makes sense though. Sone people have had him going as low as the number eight pick. Some have had him going at the end of the first round. And, when he was being recruited out of high school, he was ranked 15th in the state of the Texas. He still ended up at Texas Tech though and was able to lead them to an Elite Eight appearance.

In The Raw

He wasn’t the lead scorer on his team, but he still contributed 11.3 points, 5 boards, 1.8 assists, 1.1 blocks, and 1.1 steals. He shot 57.4% from 2-land and 45% from beyond the arc hitting .5 per game. He really shines on the defensive end. He allowed just .444 per isolation possession. That’s in the 92nd percentile according to synergy sports.

At the NBA combine, he measured 6’4” in shoes and weighed in at 199 pounds. His vertical was 41.5 inches, which tied with several other players for second best in the combine. His wing span measured out at 6’9”. He has NBA length for sure. He might not have the size yet, but he did just turn 19.

Websites have thrown out several comparisons for Zhaire, such as J.R. Smith and Gerald Green. To me, he is a more defensive minded George Hill or a more off-ball version of Patrick Beverly. Hill is an inch shorter and about ten pounds lighter. Their wingspans are roughly the same. While Hill is undoubtedly a better play maker and shooter right now, Zhaire is much more explosive and has more of an ability to make highlight plays. Beverly is a better defender and can run an offense better, but Smith isn’t too far off defensively.

Strengths

A note on the video: For all videos, assume the only part being talked about is the very first possession that is shown. Youtube no longer lets you rip just one section of the video when linking to them. If anyone knows of a way to do this, please reach out to me on twitter @nothingwood.

1.  Zhaire is extremely high flying and exciting, but I’ll save that stuff for last. To start, let’s look at his shot. He can obviously shoot the ball a little. The stats are good. Now, he shot about a 3-pointer per game, 40 total during the season, but he hit 45% of them. He’s a selective shooter. However, he has a decent stroke in that it’s very  consistent. He’s not changing what he does every time. The mechanics are there too for the most part. He rises in one motion and then releases the ball. It’s a bit of an old school shot style compared to the new Curry-type rise and gun in one motion style. It is also a little slow; nonetheless, it’s repeatable. The first 3-pointer in the video below is very representative of what his shot looks like.

2. He’s a defensive force. He covers a ton of ground and can make a weakside block. His highlight videos show him coming from behind and getting LeBron James style chasedown blocks almost regularly. That’s not what’s exciting about him though. He knows how to contest without fouling, and he can still get blocks going up vertically.

At the start point of the video above, Zhaire makes a nice read. He sees his assignment isn’t a threat to dive for a layup, so he goes in and gets a block from behind on an unsuspecting guy.

At the start point of this upper clip, Smith does a great job of staying in front of the man driving against him and then rises up veritcally to contest the shot without fouling.

3.  He’s also a terror on the ball. His long wingspan let’s him rip balls most guys don’t have a chance of getting. In the video below, watch him force his assignment to pass the ball away and then struggle to get free to get the ball back. Zhaire isn’t falling alseep when he is covering a guy off-ball.

He’s able to get around screens very efficiently too. He goes around them tightly to keep his man from getting too much space, and his angles are on point to prevent a drive while still being able to contest a jumper.

4. This man knows how to cut off the ball. He can’t create his own shot, but he has a knack for getting close to the basket and finishing, almost like a big man. He goes to the paint when his man isn’t watching, and forces defenses to make decisions. He takes advantage of ball watching defenders and can finish through contact. See the videos below.

5. Lastly, he’s just an athletic freak. He will jam putbacks with ease and dunk over nearly anybody. He finishes through contact very well for being so thin. He is probably the most athletic guard/forward in the draft. He uses his physical gifts. He’s diving and chasing the ball whenever it’s on the floor.

Weaknesses

1.  Zhaire isn’t a great dribbler yet. He can’t create his own shot, which is an issue when you’re his size. He had just 1.8 assists per game in his one season at Texas Tech, and he’s the size of a guard in the modern NBA. A lot of the scouting reports on him say he will play small forward in the NBA, but I highly doubt that.

2. 58.7% of his shots at the rim were assisted on and 94.1% of his 3s were assisted on. He’s almost a stretch big in a guards body.

3.  Smith’s shot is consistent, however, he brings the ball down too low. He always brings the ball down to his waist before shooting. Smart NBA defenders will be ripping the ball from him if he continues to do that. Look at the picture below. That’s where he starts his shot every time.

4.  Smith is also a gambler. With him being so athletic, he does a lot of work after it should have been done. In college, he could cover up a lot of his mistakes on the defensive end. The area where the gambling scares me is his rebounding. He averaged five rebounds a game. Of those boards, 2.8 were offensive boards. He often slammed back his offensive boards, but it’s hard to say what effect the missed boards will have in the NBA. Typically, guards are the ones who have to get back first on the defensive end. If he’s crashing the boards, he’s probably going to give up a lot of buckets to other guards in transition.

Fit With The Cavs

It’s rare that a guy’s strengths are really his weaknesses. This is the case for Zhaire. Yes, he can hit 3s, but he didn’t take enough of them in college. Yes, he plays great defense against college kids because of his athleticism, but there’s no way to know if that will  translate to the NBA (he wasn’t locking guys down because of brains). Yes, he got offensive boards, steals, and blocks, but he’s a gambler. Yes, he cuts well, but that just makes up for his inability to drive.

Nonetheless, he’s probably a great fit for the Cavs if LeBron stays or goes. If the King stays, Zhaire would be set up to have instant success. He cuts while nailing his 3s too, and his low 18.3% usage rate means he’s not taking away shots from anybody. He knows where to go for easy buckets and LeBron will find him. His gambling would also be very helpful to spark an often anemic Cavs defense. On top of all that, his ability to finish would set him up to run the break and have some beautiful highlights alongside LeBron.

Look at his synergy stats numbers. He’s the prototypical off-ball guy.

While he isn’t necessarily a 3 and D guy, just given that he hasn’t taken enough 3s to really know if he can hit them like he did on limited attempts in college, he is at least a defensive guy that can run the break and work at the hoop almost like a big man does.

Even if LeBron leaves, Zhaire would still be a good project guy to take. The Cavs would need to work with him to fix his jumper just so it’s a little more conventional, and they would need to teach him to dribble well enough to take advantage of his physical tools. If they were able to do those two things, they may have a guy who ends up being a cross between George Hill and Patrick Beverly while also being able to get some easy baskets off cuts and easy dunks from blow bys. At the very least, the Cavs get an athletic stopper who will have highlight blocks and dunks, while giving great effort all evening. He’d be like D.J. Stephens with enough brains to get on the floor.