Cavs Roster Post Mortem: Part Three “Future”

Finally, we’ve arrived at the players that currently seem to be a major part of the Cavs future (click here for Part One, and here for Part Two). Each player here is signed for several years or is still in their rookie contract. This is who the Cavs are focused on building around (along with whoever they add in this summer’s draft). It’s still always possible that anyone gets traded, but if any of these players are it will be for other long term pieces and parts for this rebuild.

Ante Zizic

Ante Zizic has shown himself to be a very competent traditional center. He has good footwork and continues to develop multiple skills in the low post. Big ZZ’s good, soft hands served him well this past season in reeling in passes from a young team that was much less than good at post entry passes. Ante rebounds well, has a great motor, and has shown an ability to take and make midrange jumpers when the defense sags too far off of him.

As a big in the modern switch happy NBA, he still needs defensive development and is not a natural rim protector, but his presence on the court typically lowered the opponent’s field goal percentage in the paint and surprisingly also from the perimeter. Big ZZ somewhat makes up for not being much of a shot blocker by showing a good ability to defend vertically in the paint without fouling. While the drop in opponent’s three point percentage is likely not due Zizic’s personal perimeter defense, it does appear that his presence as a help defender in the paint allows his teammates to better extend their coverages and put more pressure on outside shooters.

Ante’s biggest weakness to his future as a Cavalier is the fact that he is currently a traditional center in a league that uses tradition centers less and less. Most teams have at least one backup center with an old-school skillset, but few teams start that type of center, and it is common for them to be only used situationally. If that kind of backup center is all Big ZZ ever is to the Cavs, then he will still have been a useful asset from the Kyrie Irving trade. Yet, to many who see more potential in him, it would be a shame if that is his ceiling.

Zizic is currently the second youngest Cavalier, so he still has plenty of time to grow and develop. Last summer he indicated that he had begun working on developing three point shooting range. He said he wanted more than just a few months of practice before actually taking threes in games, so hopefully he has continued to work on it since then and might start adding that to his game next season. Ante already has a better looking jumper and a higher free throw percentage than some other centers that have added the three ball in recent years, so there is no reason to think he cannot do the same. The World Cup this summer could be a good place for Zizic to experiment with adding elements to his game. It will be interesting to see him compete internationally after two years of NBA experience, and we will likely see a preview of how and what he will develop next year.

Kevin Love

When Kevin Love signed his extension last summer a lot of people were skeptical. Concerns ranged from his age, injury history, if he could ever return to “Minnesota Kevin Love” or if Cleveland would even be able to be competitive again before Love aged past his usefulness. Most of these were valid concerns in a the vacuum of cost vs. talent vs. assets needed for a rebuild. Most of these concerns missed the point, however.

The most pessimistic viewpoint on the rebuild would argue that this will take years. If it takes as long as feared, Love will be off the books before the Cavs are ready to truly compete anyways. There are some small limitations to the use of cap space for assets during that time, but management and ownership have seemed willing and able to use what they have rather effectively so far. As to Love’s injury history, that’s hard to argue after he missed most of the season. Ironically, that injury was also probably the best thing that could’ve happened to the team in so far as developing the young players and securing the best lottery position possible. Kevin Love’s return even seemed to come at the perfect time to get a glimpse into how those young players could grow and thrive when playing alongside a legitimate star player.

Minnesota Kevin Love is not a thing. Empty stats on a losing team from a young player trying to establish himself are not a tenable goal for the future. Minnesota Kevin Love was also heavier, slower, and nowhere near the leader and mature presence that Right Now Kevin Love is. Right Now Kevin Love is the exactly what these Cavs need. Love’s increased mobility and confidence have made him a legitimate threat off the dribble behind the arc. He still has his post presence, great free throw shooting and insane rebounding numbers, but this version of Kevin Love is entirely tailored around what the team needs. Tanking, even with the flattened lottery odds, will never entirely go away. The balancing act, now more than ever, is not falling into the trap of being so utterly terrible that the team never learns how to play to win. Dropping to fifth in this year’s draft keeps the Cavs away from a shortcut back to relevance, but that doesn’t mean they have to take the long path that Sacramento, Phoenix or even Orlando has taken. The team will most likely be trying to avoid conveying their draft pick to Atlanta next year, but that doesn’t mean the Cavs can’t string some victories into another rough season. And who knows, maybe the team will over-perform early, find a diamond in the rough a la Donovan Mitchell, and be good before we know it. I don’t expect it, but it could happen.

This brings us back to what Love adds to the Cavaliers. He’s been through a floundering rebuild, and he’s been through four year run at the Finals that included the most improbable championship against the juggernaut that is Golden State. His experiences have tailored made him to be the calm voice of reason and hope on a team that could easily slip into despair. Love still draws attention and double teams that can make life easier for his teammates, but he does not demand the high usage rates of most prime age stars that would take the game out of the youngsters’ hands. It is hard to truly know what Kevin Love and the Cavaliers will look like one year or three years down the line. It will definitely be interesting to see, however, and this next season will provide a lot of fun glimpses into what the growing Cavaliers might become in the not too distant future. If absolutely nothing else, at least Love will provide an example of a star that doesn’t need to make the team all about him, and that’s a lesson a lot of young players don’t learn soon enough.

Larry Nance Jr.

Larry Nance Jr. had a pretty great first full year as a Cavalier.  Obviously the team was high on him immediately when they acquired him a year and a half ago.  His father’s history with the Cavs got him off to a great start, but his basketball IQ, effort, and growing leadership qualities really came out this year.  When Nance signed a four year extension for just under $45 million at the beginning of the season, the Cavs weren’t paying him for the player he is but for the player they thought he could become.  After watching Nance record statistical highs across the board, it seems they were right.

Throughout this season, LNJ was asked to do more and more for his team and he delivered.  Whether it was initiating the offense off of rebounds, providing secondary playmaking, taking on big defensive assignments, or even extending his efficient range beyond the three point line, Nance seemed up for every challenge.  At 26 years old, most players are not expected to continue improving at the same rate, but so far Nance seems to have not yet reached his ceiling.  Though he may never project to be a perennial all-star, Nance has definitely showed the potential to become a key piece to a quality playoff team.

One major concern going forward that could keep Nance from living up to his potential is his injury history.  He had a late growth spurt and almost gave up on basketball in high school until he was diagnosed with Crohn’s disease.  It seems that particular health problem has been well managed since then, but still his 67 games played this year was actually a career high for him.  Luckily, Nance hasn’t seemed to have had many major injuries.  The concern is that he is continually plagued by little things that pop up again and again in the season.  But, it still seems like Cavs will come out happy with his contract extension ultimately.  They will just have to hope that when they are ready to contend again that LNJ will be available in the postseason when they need him most.

Collin Sexton

Collin Sexton had a real rollercoaster of a year, and very easily could’ve fallen victim to the impatient hot takes that make up much of sports writing recently.  After awhile, the Young Bull’s horrible shot choice and low assist numbers even had the more measured and patient Cavs fans all but ready to give up on him.  With report after report of how Sexton “didn’t know how to play,” it was hard to have much confidence that he could be the franchise cornerstone that he was supposed to be.  Thankfully, this is where the Young Bull’s reputation as a hard worker started to shine through.

Collin didn’t hang his head and complain about the negativity.  He didn’t shy away from trying to create his place in the NBA.  Instead, he took the advice and complaints to heart and worked on turning a weakness into a strength.  I doubt even the biggest fans of the Young Bull would’ve projected him to break Kyrie Irving’s record of threes made by a Cavs rookie, and do so at a higher percentage (40.2% vs Kyrie’s 39.9% per basketball-reference.com).  Sexton’s ability to become a shooter, when that was supposed to be his weakness, cannot be overstated.  He has plenty of holes left in his game (his assist rate first among those), but that ability to master a weakness leaves a lot of hope that he can do that with other weaknesses.

At only 6’2″ and with a somewhat slight frame, Sexton will never have it easy defensively.  Effort and study will go a long way towards keeping him from becoming a defensive liability if he can get there.  In his rookie season he was definitely not there yet.  He regularly got beat off the dribble from guards that were nowhere near his speed, and was often a clear weak point for teams to attack.  The Cavs can only hope that he turns his relentless work ethic towards the defensive end over the summer.  Young Bull lived up to his name often in coming up with big offensive rebounds in a crowd of trees, so the effort and will are there.  Now he just needs to spend as much time as possible learning how best to apply himself on the defensive end.

The biggest question mark left for Sexton is if he can become a good enough distributor to truly be the Cavs point guard of the future.  Though he showed a few flashes of playmaking instincts, he did nowhere near enough to alleviate that concern.  Most of the time the Young Bull looked too busy hunting his own shots without the patience of knowing that they will come to him.  Channing Frye said his biggest advice to Collin was to know that he would get his 20+ shots no matter what, so be patient and try to get others going first.  This summer will be a huge offseason for Sexton.  If he shows measured improvement in his passing early next season, then a lot of Cavs fans will be right behind him.  If next season shows him still stuck around the three assists per game mark, then his place in the starting line up may not last very long.  It’s encouraging that he asked to try to get Channing that last look for a three pointer in the last game of the season.  That shot led to Sexton’s first points/assists double-double and, hopefully, he will find that vision more often next year.

The jury is still out on what Collin Sexton’s ultimate place in the NBA will be.  Whether he becomes a gunner off the bench or a legitimate starting point guard depends a lot on how he applies the work ethic that he has shown thus far.  What is obvious is that he won’t be counted out easily.  As a player that was for a time considered a bust as the eighth pick in the draft, he now seems to have all but locked up his position on the All-Rookie First Team.

Cedi Osman

Cedi Osman both met and fell below expectations this past season.  Many of his fans thought he had a good shot at a the Most Improved Player award this year.  He obviously didn’t live up to that hype, but he did at least establish himself as a footnote to the running for the award.  More than anything else, Cedi was a victim of the flux of the Cavs this year and his own versatility.  For a large portion of the season, he was stuck playing the four when he might have the height but not the frame to excel there.  At 6’8″ it is hard for many to remember that Cedi has spent most of his life as a guard.  As a youth he bounced between the point guard and shooting guard position, and that is how he learned the game of basketball.  After other teams pressured Cedi’s ball-handling last year, he spent the summer on dribbling drills and that weakness was mostly gone this year.

At this point, the First Cedi has almost certainly carved out a career in the NBA.  It remains to be seen exactly what that role could be.  He has a versatile skillset from ball-handling, playmaking, shooting, rebounding, and even defensive potential when put in a position to succeed.  Osman’s 6’8″ frame allows him to easily slide between wing positions, and if he continues to put on muscle mass he may become more successful as a fill in power forward. While many of Cedi’s fans come off overly optimistic about his future, that doesn’t make them entirely wrong. His size and skillset definitely does allow him a possibility (however slight it might be) to become a real star in the NBA.

One of the biggest hurdles in front of Cedi’s future seems to hinge on him maintaining his confidence.  He had games where he dropped 20 plus points without seemingly breaking a sweat as he made shot after shot.  Following those games would often be long slumps where he failed to even make double digits.  When his confidence was high he let loose on threes without hesitation and looked like a legitimate marksman.  Suddenly, he would get in his own head and have a stretch of games where he was thoroughly inefficient.  An example of this is his massive swing in three point percentage from early in the game to late in the game when he’s not overthinking it.  He shoots 29.2 and 30.7 percent from the three point line in the first and second quarters respectively.  Then, in the second half his percentage shoots up to 39.2 and 39.7 in the third and fourth quarters respectively (stats per nba.com).  In the first half he is a player that the Cavs don’t want to shoot threes, in the second half he is exactly who they want shooting threes.

If Cedi can find a way to become engaged in games early he very well could have a real break out season next year.  Part of what stood in Osman’s way this past year was the high usage of Collin Sexton, the only Cav who played more minutes than Cedi.  Finding chemistry with Sexton and Love next year will be a huge key to Cedi’s development.  Love and Cedi already seem to have a natural flow, as early in the season something like half of Cedi’s assists were to Kevin Love.  Also, as soon as a real all-star caliber threat was on the floor with him, Osman played with a lot more space and control.  If he can continue that chemistry, build it with Sexton, and gain just a bit more confidence and control within himself, then the First Cedi will secure his place as a valuable young core piece of the Cavalier’s future.  This summer he has a chance to prove himself playing for the Turkish National Team for the World Cup, and if things go well the Cavs may see another large jump forward for Osman in his upcoming third season.  Whether or not that jump happens will determine his future as either a bench player or a legitimate NBA starter or perhaps even more.

[This concludes the Cavs Roster Post Mortem series… special thanks to JudeElysium for his terrific contributions! Stay tuned for all your C:tB Draft coverage in the coming weeks]