Randoms: The Unexpected

This is it, folks. We’re one day away from the craziest day in the craziest time of year for the NBA. At 6:00 PM tomorrow, teams are able to meet with respective free agents and begin negotiations. Thankfully, the NBA has stopped the midnight madness of previous seasons (one of the few non-dumb things the NBA has done recently). Of course, this hasn’t stopped teams from talking to agents already. We already know the Kemba Walker fallout, and the rumor now is that the Lakers are the favorite for Kawhi Leonard. Forgive me for not sourcing all this, but it mostly comes from NBA town crier, @wojespn, then gets regurgitated so many times it gets impossible to trace back to the source.

After Darren Collison‘s unexpected retirement to embrace his Jehova’s Witness religion, the only thing we can expect from the next few days is the unexpected. It should be a wild ride.

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We’ve gone over Laker stupidity ad nauseum, but let me just question the wisdom of building around the now aged LeBron James with two injury prone superstars, Kyle Kuzma, a room exception guy, and 11 minimum contracts. Though I have heard that KCP could take the minimum this year with the promise that the Lakers, who will have his bird rights after this year, can pay him more next year.

I still can’t believe Rob Pelinka said this about KCPhttps://t.co/tOPcTRtFfE

— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) May 28, 2019

Anyway, after a week of trying to explain how cap holds work to Laker fans, I can’t wait to see them fail. It’s going to be glorious.

Exhibit A: J.R. Smith is forked. He’ll be 34 before the season starts, shot 40% from the field two years ago, and 34% in his 11 game run this last season. J.R. threw soup at Damon Jones – who you’d better believe will be hanging around the Lakers,  forgot the score in the final seconds of a finals game, and pouted his way off the team this last fall. He was barely playable two years ago. The dude is done, he’ll be a regular “DNP – Scooter Injury” next fall.

Still, the Cavs will hold on to his contract till the last second tomorrow, on the chance that some team like Miami is willing to give up assets to be able chase a guy like Jimmy Butler without paying insane luxury taxes. There was some talk a few weeks back about amending the buyout date, but I’m not sure that would pass NBA muster or if J.R. would be amenable to it (he might for another 100K in guaranteed money, though).

At least Swish still doing crazy stuff like like, “going off in the Pine Valley pro shop. From quarter-zips to polos to tee shirts to bucket hats and everything in between, Smith stocked up on pretty much every item possible.” Never change, J.R.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BzKHaIYh_jD/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link

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The NBA’s Unexpectedly Wealthy

This year’s free agency bonanza is gonna be bonkers. According to Sportrac, there are 21 teams with a combined $611 million dollars worth of “practical cap space” this summer. Aside from the biggest names, there will be guys who who upgrade to “generational wealth” you were never expecting. Some of them make sense, and some, like the first and last, are head scratchers.

Let’s take a look. There’s a lot of free agency lists, from the NBA’s nausea inducing spreadsheet, to every site and their mother’s “Top 10 NBA Free Agents” list. HoopsHype has by far the best: the top 200 without having to horizontally slide a scrollbar and keep track of rows and columns.

This is gonna be so fun. There are rumors of a secret promise of a four year $100 million dollar + deal that Al Horford will be 38 years old when done. God, I hope it’s true, it would be the dumbest thing ever. He actually did the Celtics a favor when he opted out, and now someone is going to massively overpay him. Big Al has a chance to be one of the highest NBA all time earners ever. I don’t know why you’d give Al all that money when you could grab his father from the Cavs for just $18 million.

Bojan Bogdanovic is an underrated guy but he absolutely helped carry the Pacers last year when Oladipo went down, is a knockdown shooter, plays great off the ball, and is a pesky defender. Every team could use a guy like him. Expect him to get a deal of at least $100 million dollars. Generational wealth, here he comes.

If you’re the Lakers, why in God’s name would you be taking the ball out of LeBron’s hands and putting it into D’Angelo Russell‘s or Kyrie’s hands when this guy is available. Malcolm Brogdon flies off screens, he can run your offense when Bron sits, he can switch anything, and he puts the ball in the basket regularly. Malcolm’s a restricted free agent. The rumblings are that Milwaukee lets him walk if he gets an offer in the high 20s, and at 26, why wouldn’t he? As a third scorer, he’s fantastic. At the time, With the emergency of George Hill, and Donte DiVincenzo, that Eric Bledsoe extension, that I praised at the time, seems like a disaster, especially if the Bucks neglect to keep Brogdon.

It’s the former Cav’s last shot at a big payday, and he’s gonna take it. While Danny Green was a dog for most of the playoffs after a monster regular season from three, his Game 1 and Game 3 finals nights combined with his defense and smarts helped the Raptors win the series. Someone will overpay him.

The Kings are gonna overpay Bad Earth Rudy Gay, and that might not be the biggest offer Harrison Barnes gets. There are rumors that the Mavs might want him back, too, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him be a consolation prize for the Knicks. The trick for all these guys is when to take the money, and when to wait. Wait too long though, and the money will be gone.

The Sacramento Kings are working towards an agreement with Harrison Barnes in the 4 year, 88 million dollar range…….

— y – – Clinchmichael Dave (@CarmichaelDave) June 28, 2019

Jonas Valanciunas‘ per/36 were insane. 27, he’s going to get the biggest deal of his career. Memphis might have to come close to maxing him to keep him. If I were Brooklyn I’d take a long look at him if I had to bang with Gasol next year. Memphis will keep him and he’ll be the soul of the grindhouse for a while.

HAHAHAHAHA. Remember when Derrick Rose quit on the Cavs to go get married?

In a wing’s league, how come Terrence Ross can’t get more love? He was one of the best bench players in the Association last year, shoots well from three, finishes on the break, and is a switchable (though admittedly mediocre) defender. The problem with Ross is he needs to be put with a facilitator and primary option to draw the defense and shine. Teams like the Knicks will struggle if they add him and no one else. Still, he’s the 12th ranked wing in this class, two of those guys are hurt and 4-5 of them are in their thirties.

Jeremy Lamb, did I mention this is a wing’s league?

That’s probably the end of the list of guys that are gonna get crazy money, but below are some bargain free agents that could really help some teams that will be passed over for much worse players.

HAHAHA. Just kidding. Isaiah Thomas is gonna be overpaid… in Guangzhou!

The Under-Appreciated

That’s probably the end of the list of guys that are gonna get crazy money, but below are some free agents that could really help some teams that will be passed over for much worse players. They could be unexpectedly good.

Way back in 2014, Kevin Hetrick and I bet on Elfrid Payton to be rookie of the year at 50-1 odds. We didn’t win, and Elfrid’s stupid hair infuriated us for the next four years. Elfrid is who he is now: a 24 year old version of Andre Miller in his early 30s. No, he’s not a guy who’s gonna get you 30, but he’ll run your team, get guys good looks, and keep the turnovers down. He’d be great for a team trying to get to the next level with a good set of wings, but I can’t think of who that team is, so he’ll be a backup or 1-2 year solution for some GM who strikes out on the big name guards.

My boy. Thomas Satoransky seems destined to sign a deal with the Spurs designed to keep the Wizards from matching. They’ll match anyway. Cuz they’re the Wizards.

Every year or two some player signs a second round or undrafted free agent deal, and then completely outplays it. This year it’s Thomas Bryant who was hilariously cut by the Lakers, hooked on with the Wiz when they ran out of centers, and then had a fantastic year. Bryant’s 21, can finish like a boss, and can shoot a bit. He runs the floor well, despite his girth, and was an analytics dream in college. Some center starved team (I’m looking at you, Dallas), should sign him just to screw with the Wizards.

How in God’s name is Dewayne Dedmon guy ranked behind both Lopez Brothers, Javale, Faried, Willie Cauley-Stein, and DeAndre Jordan? Look for Milwaukee to go after Dewayne to replace Brook Lopez who will now get overpaid. How did some team not try to trade for him at last year’s deadline? Think Houston could’ve used him?

Rob Pelinka is unfeated. Ivaca Zuba is gonna be pretty good.

Tristan Thompson if Tristan Thompson could finish. Kevon Looney impressed the hell out of me in the finals by playing through an upper chest fracture. He’s one of the few Dubs I respect. Hope he gets paid. He’s the kind of player every winning team would love have on their team, but he’s not a star or a scorer. Wouldn’t be surprised to see Boston go after him. Seems like a President Stephens kind of guy.

Can’t shoot, but Delon Wright averaged 14/6/6 with 2 steals per 36 for the Grizz after the Gasol trade from Toronto. Could be a valuable bench guard who can play with a smaller scorer. Actually would be a perfect guy to put with Sexton or Garland. Teams won’t want to tie up money chasing him early. He’ll stick with the Grizz on a shorter term deal.

Like Maxi Kleber a lot as a floor stretching big who has some skills. Don’t understand why Dallas is keeping Dwight Powell when they have this guy, and need the cap room.

Justin Holiday: 3, D, and a little swagger.

Daniel Theis is one the reasons Boston let Baynes go. At 27, he’s also proof that there are good players not playing in the NBA.

Fully expect the Spurs to sign Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, and for Chip Engalland to teach him to shoot. Rondae could be an all-star if he could shoot. Well, at least he could stay on the floor long enough to make NBA all-defense.

The Tim Misney of wings. Outside of Cleveland, few know about him, but you know who he is. You know what he does. “He makes them pay:” for getting sloppy with the dribble, for doubting him in transition, and he makes his teammates pay for passing him the ball in the corner.

The first guy, Noah Vonleh is the poster boy for making players go to college or a developmental league for two years. He still has a lot of upside. The second, Richaun Holmes was one of the most efficient pick and roll finishers in the NBA and one of the league’s best bench players from analytics standpoint. I’d take him over Kyle Kuzma 10 times out of 10. He also can shoot, but he took the 3-ball completely out of his game after shooting 35% as an NBA Sophomore.

After being exiled to NBA purgatory in Sacramento and Memphis for years, Garrett Temple will be able to be a reliable bench player for a playoff team for the rest of his career.

Analytics-wise had had some decent seasons. Not a natural shooter, but can make them if you leave him open. He’s a perfect big backup point, but he isn’t going to help your offense much. Jerian Grant plays good though.

The blurb says it all. Kyle O’Quinn was a victim of the stacked center spot in Indy. Some smart team like Golden State, L.A., or Dallas will sign him. I actually think he’d be a great guy in Brooklyn as an Allen backup to bang with Gasol.

Shabazz Napier best available backup point guard in the association. Not as strong as a Van Vleet, which limits what you can do with him on D, but you can build a second team offense around him. Honestly, the Hornets could do worse than giving him the keys if Kemba leaves.

Really impressed with him when the Cavs played the Bulls last year. 59 TS%. Ryan Arcidiacono is only 24 and has decent size at the 1. He will probably be matched since he won’t get a big offer, but he’s a guy to keep an eye on.

He’s a Ron Artest style difference maker on D and can guard five positions when healthy. His exit was part of Houston getting worse on D. Could totally see him end up on the Lakers. Some playoff team will take a chance on him.

Worth a Flier for the Cavs

Could proximity to the Cleveland Clinic and some run with his college coach help Glenn Robinson III?

Cheick Diallo Can jump out of the gym and posts very good per 36 numbers. Doesn’t fit the kind of team that Griff wanted to put around Zion, so the Pels neglected to give him a qualifying offer, making him unrestricted. If the Cavs find a destination for TT, Cheick would be a very nice backup big experiment. He was one of the best players in the G-League for a couple seasons. From Mali, I could see him ending up in Europe.

Luke Kornet had some really nice games for the Knicks and can shoot well. Should end up with a good team that can feed him, but if he doesn’t and the Cavs clear their big man logjam, love to see him in the wine and gold.