Thoughts on a Kevin Love Trade

As the schedule has lightened up, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been able to find a bit of success. Winners of two straight, and three of their past five games, there have finally been some positives in Cleveland. Young players such as Kevin Porter Jr., Darius Garland, and Cedi Osman have shown signs of individual growth, and veterans such as Tristan Thompson, Kevin Love, and John Henson are engaged and playing well. The talk of locker room dissension and dissatisfaction with Coach John Beilein has faded into the background as the team seems to have refocused towards a more positive mindset.

That’s all well and good, but it likely isn’t the end of the drama for the Cavaliers. With seven players on expiring deals, including five high-priced veterans, it would be shocking if the Cavaliers finished the season with the same roster they have now, and that’s without addressing the biggest elephant in the room.

It’s no secret that Kevin Love would welcome a trade to a title contender or to his hometown team of the Portland Trailblazers. While Love may not have officially requested a trade, and he seems to have refocused his efforts with the Cavaliers, that doesn’t truly change his feelings on the matter. While Love will likely continue to conduct himself in a professional manner, and almost definitely won’t publicly express his feelings on a trade, chances are that he still sees himself somewhere else in the near future.

So what does that mean for the Cavaliers? What can they expect in return for Love, a player who is likely near the end of his prime, but is still very good? While no one knows for sure what the package on a Love trade might entail, there are a few things we can safely assume.

The Cavs won’t be giving up a first-round pick.

There has been some debate that, due to Love’s salary and injury history, the Cavaliers would actually be the ones giving up a first-round pick in a Love trade. That simply won’t happen. While Love is likely somewhat overpaid given his age and injury history, the Cavaliers will already have over $30 million in cap space after this season, and relatively clean books going forward. Given those details, as well as the fact that Cleveland is never a top destination for NBA free agents to begin with, the Cavs have no need to rid themselves of Love’s salary. They may be overpaying him, but he is still the type of veteran who allows their young players to develop in lesser roles than they would have to play if he were gone. If the Cavaliers have to deal a first-round pick to trade Love, then they simply won’t trade him.

The Cavaliers won’t be getting an amazing package for Love.

Forget the hauls teams have gotten for Anthony Davis, Paul George, and even Russell Westbrook, there’s no way the Cavaliers fetch anywhere near that for Love. First, he’s simply not as good a player as any of the others. He’s also older than Davis and George, and far more injury prone than Westbrook. His age, contract, injury history, and defensive limitations will drive Love’s value down. There are other concerns as well. While he is actually shooting a career high 50.7% on two-point attempts, and his three-point and free throw shooting percentages are above his career averages, there are also some signs that Love has begun to decline. Love is averaging by far the fewest two-point shot attempts and offensive rebounds of his career. The lack of two-point attempts can at least partially be blamed on the inability of the Cavalier’s guards to get in the ball in his preferred spots, but the declining offensive rebounds point to the possibility that Love is simply becoming less effective inside the arc, and his high two-point percentage may be the result of simply taking only the best and easiest shots since he can’t get the shots he used to around the basket.

None of this is to say that the Cavaliers can’t get any value for Love. A combination of expiring contracts, a promising younger player, and a low first-round pick (or second younger player) certainly may be possible. It’s just unlikely that the pick is any more than a late first, and the young players will likely be seen as future role players with some obvious warts.

Borderline playoff teams seem like the most likely destination for Love.

Top level playoff teams either don’t have the contracts and assets (Lakers Celtics, Rockets), or need (Bucks, Nuggets, Sixers, Raptors) for Love. The Clippers could swing a deal for Love without giving up any of Kawhi Leonard, George, Lou Williams, Patrick Beverly, and Montrezl Harrell, but would they give up their depth and defensive versatility? It seems unlikely. Instead, watch for borderline playoff teams looking to get over the hump to try and make a move for Love. The Trailblazers (Carmelo Anthony is a nice story, but not the answer to anything), Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, and Chicago Bulls all would like to make the playoffs and could use a power foward with Love’s skills. They all also have some young players that they might be ready to move on from, as well as some large contracts to help facilitate trades. There are also some other teams that could be surprise suitors. The Atlanta Hawks have the worst record in the Eastern Conference, but have talked about getting Trae Young some help. Could they trade some of their young players and expiring deals for Love? What if the Charlotte Hornets continue to hang in the playoff race? It’s hard to see Michael Jordan remaining patient for a long-term rebuild, even if it’s the right thing to do. Finally, the Orlando Magic would be thrilled to add a player with Love’s offensive skills, and could stand to shake up their roster. Would they make a move for Love? Regardless of who it is, expect a team looking to make the playoffs such as the ones listed above to be at the forefront of any Love sweepstakes.

There’s little doubt that changes are coming for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Whether or not those changes involve Kevin Love remains to be seen, but it’s important to keep a realistic perspective on the value of the their best player, both for the Cavaliers themselves, as well as for the rest of the NBA.