A Way too Early Look at Free Agent Forwards
2020-03-04While there is still over a month of the NBA season left, and free agency doesn’t start for another four months, it’s never too early to be thinking about the future of the Cleveland Cavaliers. After this season, the Cavaliers will own all of their first round picks going forward, and will have little incentive to continue their losing ways. With an owner who isn’t known for his patience, and a general manager on his second coach, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Cavaliers try to make a leap towards postseason contention.
While the Cavaliers have invested time an draft picks in their backcourt, and have a fairly deep group of big men, they have arguably the thinnest group of wings in the league. Kevin Porter Jr. is likely the team’s shooting guard of the future, but his listed size is a bit small to play heavy minutes at small forward. Cedi Osman projects as a solid backup on a good team, but is a bit overmatched guarding the better threes in the NBA. Alfonzo McKinnie is likely an end of the bench player on a good team, but has to play regular backup minutes with the Cavs. Larry Nance Jr.’s recent minutes at small forward have been intriguing, but whether or not he can play there probably depends on that night’s matchup. Nance is also the only one of the Cavaliers’ four big men who is seemingly guaranteed to be back next season, and will likely continue to spend most of his minutes at the power forward spot.
With that in mind, here are some soon-to-be free agent forwards who could fit the Cavaliers’ plans going forward. To make this list, the players had to fit a few categories. First, they had to be 27 or younger. Signing veterans much older than that doesn’t really make sense given the Cavs’ young core. Second, they had to be attainable. The New Orleans Pelicans aren’t letting Brandon Ingram go, no matter how much Cavalier fans may want them to. Finally, the Cavs’ potential draft options are not considered here. It’s impossible to have any idea of who will be available to them until the NBA Draft Lottery takes place, so for the sake of this exercise, we are ignoring the Deni Avdija’s and Isaac Okoro’s of the world.
Without further ado, here’s the free agent forwards the Cavaliers should take a look at.
Potential Starter
Harkless is the only free agent forward who is arguably both a better player and fit in the starting lineup than Osman. Harkless is a good defender who has started more often than not for several Portland Trailblazers playoff teams, as well as this season’s Los Angeles Clippers until he was traded to the New York Knicks for Marcus Morris. While not as good a shooter from deep as Osman, Harkless isn’t a non-shooter either. Teams at least pay attention to him from the corners, and he is a far better defender than Osman. Harkless can at least suitably guard the opposing team’s best perimeter player, which is the kind of player the Cavaliers don’t have right now. Harkless turns 27 this May, meaning that he is young enough to fill this role for the Cavs for the next few years. He can also play a little bit as a small ball power forward, a task which Osman struggles with.
Solid Backups
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Derrick Jones Jr., Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Juan Hernangomez
Hollis-Jefferson, Jones, and Kidd-Gilchrist are all different shades of a similar player; long athletic small forwards who can guard several positions but lack the outside shooting teams desire from their perimeter players. Hollis-Jefferson is arguably the best defender of the three, while Jones is easily the best athlete. Both give give the Cavaliers size, athleticism, and defense that the Cavaliers desperately need. Still, with the likelihood that at least one of Andre Drummond or Tristan Thompson return at center, it would be hard to start either player over Osman as putting two non-shooters on the floor at the same time is a death sentence in today’s NBA. Kidd-Gilchrist fits a similar profile to Hollis-Jefferson and Jones, but injuries and lack of playing time this season almost dropped him into the next group. Despite being bought out by the Charlotte Hornets and signing with the Dallas Mavericks, Kidd-Gilchrist has been unable to get steady playing time with either team this season. He’s also a bit more limited offensive than Hollis-Jefferson and Jones. Still, he is just 26 years old and would easily be the Cavaliers’ best perimeter defender.
Hernangomez is a bit different than the other three. He’s more of a power forward, but has played both positions in the past. He’s also a better shooter than any of the other players, and arguably just as good as Osman. Unfortunately, he’s also the worst defender of the group. Hernangomez has been starting for Minnesota, and they’ll likely want to bring him back at a reasonable price, but he’d certainly be worth a look for the Cavaliers, at least as a stretch four in the even that they move Kevin Love.
Cheap Gambles With Upside
The fourth pick in the 2017 NBA Draft, Jackson was the player the Suns allegedly wouldn’t send to the Cavaliers for Kyrie Irving three years ago. This just goes to show the sheen new players have before they actually, you know, play. Jackson never really developed much with the Suns, and after a series of on and off court mishaps, he was traded to the Memphis Grizzlies in what amounted to a salary dump. The Grizzlies sent Jackson to the G League, where he played extremely well for the Memphis Hustle, showing off an improved outside shot before being called up to the Grizzlies. Jackson has good size, and is a more than capable defender and passer, but the shot hasn’t translated in the NBA. Would the Cavaliers even take the risk given Jackson’s past behavior. They’d have to be very cautious bringing him around their young players. Jackson being a negative influence is a far greater risk than any contract he might get.
Caboclo is still famous for being “two years away from two years away” during the 2014 NBA Draft. A terrific athlete who looks the part of the modern NBA forward, Caboclo hasn’t done much during his time in the NBA. The exception was last season with the Memphis Grizzlies. Given a real role and steady minutes for the first time in his career, Caboclo averaged 12.7 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.5 blocks while shooting 36.9% from three and playing solid defense over 34 games. Was this a fluke, or was it born out of the confidence Caboclo got from receiving steady minutes? It’s hard to say, but with likely nothing more than a minimum contract coming Caboclo’s way for next season, it may be worth it for the Cavaliers to find out.
Power Forward Options
Both of these guys would fit more as power forwards or centers, but given the uncertainty surrounding Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Andre Drummond, they are certainly worth a look. After a bit of a breakout with the New York Knicks last season, Vonleh has only played sporadic minutes this season, first with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and now with the Denver Nuggets. Still just 24 years old, Vonleh is a solid defender who is at least a bit better than replacement level in terms of backup big men.
Giles is another story. If you want further proof of the Sacramento Kings’s incompetency, look no further than them declining their 2020-2021 option on Giles. Yes, he has battled injuries that may plague him for the rest of his career, but Giles is a super athletic 21 year old who can pass, rebound, finish at the basket, and is a force defensively. He’s even solid from the line. Any sane team would be more than willing to pay Giles $2.5 million next season, and any sane team should be trying to snatch him up in free agency as soon as possible.
As bad as this season has been for the Cavaliers, they may only be a few shrewd moves away from challenging for one of the bottom playoff spots in the Eastern Conference. If they are able to keep most of their impact players, and make the right additions, it’s not out of the question that they could show real improvement next season.
Is there any logic concerning drafting Deni Avdija a reserve for an Israeli team playing 14 minutes per game and thinking he will transition to the NBA and replace Cedi Osman a two year starter and far superior player?
The reason why the Cavaliers have played better basketball lately, beating the Nuggets, and Spurs, is because they used lineups that if used throughout the season may have given them many additional wins to where 35 games were conceivable. This team is allowing player development to supersede wins. A back court of Sexton and Garland, then allowing Porter, purely a guard, to play forward is as if those in charge have no training or knowledge in basketball. Assign designated roles based upon proper players with adequate size and skill and allow the lineups to get experience instead of the nonsense… Read more »
The Cavaliers are a much better team when they shun the small ball mentality and play larger combinations of players. In a sport of giants why would any team want to downsize unless it’s a center for greater mobility using a power forward?The ideal lineup based upon spacing, point differential and difficulty defending is a point guard with two small forwards and two power forwards along with another lineup featuring two guards with a distributor such as Dellavedova and three front court players: Sexton, with Osman/McKinnie, Nance, Love, Thompson was their best lineup against the Nuggets where they had a… Read more »
Bogdan will gets offers. Poach him from the kings. His name was on the trade block all year. I suspect he can be had even though he’s restricted because the kings will pay Hield over him. He’s the best gettable out of this group. He’s 27 but these other guys are not worth signing unless on minimum deals. Harkless isn’t worth it. Better yet save the money for a better crop of FAs. Or throw the bank at Harrell. Throw the bank at Sabonis and make the Pacers make a costly long term decision. Sign Joe Harris. His game likely… Read more »
sabonis is already signed… but Poetl is being wasted in SAS right now.
Ah shows you how much I follow contracts at this point in the season. Admittedly I have little interest in this FA class, or at least the gettable guys that are around 28 or younger. They should go after Harrell. Unlikely to sign, but if you throw a max who knows. Might be too pricey for the clips at that price, of course he might get a boatload from other teams too.
Domantas Sabonis already signed a contract extension with the Pacers. The starting lineup for the Pacers has just one player drafter Myles Turner as the other came by trades or free agency. Oladipo, Sabonis, Warren, Brogdon. This is the blue print as to how the Cavaliers should restructure as the draft in the NBA is way too unpredictable given the difficult odds of the draft lottery and few players from the draft having an immediate impact.
For what it’s worth, despite being on better teams, Harkless actually has a worse RPM than Cedi. But not different enough to mean anything.
MONTREZL OF COURSE WOULD BE MY FIRST CHOICE–DO NOT BELIEVE CAVS HAVE A SHOT AT HIM
Probably not, but it can’t hurt to try.
COUNT ME “IN ” AT PURSUING RHJ —-LIKED HIM COMING OUT OF THE DRAFT
Jefferson is short, the same height as Gilchrest both measured about 6’5 1/2” without shoes. Similar to Demare Carroll with the wild hair Justice Winslow and Jae Crowder sawed off types that are shorter than Osman and no better. There is no such thing as a small ball power forward , as basketball can’t get micro managed like baseball. One assigned starting lineup used against all teams, unless injuries or poor performance, to establish consistency, continuity cohesiveness, and good chemistry. Along with four to five second string units combining starters and reserves also used consistently against all teams to establish… Read more »
These players are all mediocre to bad. Do. Not want.
OK, cols.
I feel like every non-contending team is a decent SF away from competency. Mike, are either of Hollis-Jefferson or Kidd-Gilchrist good ball handlers? Ideally we’d get a SF who could shoot/handle/defend but there’s probably 10 of those in the whole league. If we can check defense and one other of those boxes on a starting SF we’d considerably raise our ceiling.
Man, just looked and I was surprised how much better RHJ’s advanced stats are than MKG’s. I remember wanting Machine Kun Gelly so bad in that 2012 draft.
MKG is and has been completely inept on the offensive end. I mean almost unbelievably inept. Do not want.
Not particularly, although MKG has had occasional moments there.
The main problem with the Cavaliers is the baby sized back court in tandem which will cause this team to consistently lose. This has to get markedly upgraded with Lamelo Ball, Kevin Porter, and Sexton as the sixth man, Garland dispatched as another small guard that does not fit the composition of the team. Osman is better than most people realise and 230 pounds 6’7”.
Also the lost opportunity cost of Andre Drummond precludes the Cavs from doing things like throwing a max at Malik Beasley who’s putting up monster numbers in Minnesota. God I hope Drummond opts out, but I know he won’t.
Idk about throwing a max at a player because of a good 10 game stretch. Even then idk if they want another score-only SG whose assist rate is HALF that of Collin Sexton.
But agree there was real opportunity cost lost when they traded for Drummond
If Thompson leaves as an unrestricted free agent and Zizic is also a free agent are they going to just have all small players with Nance or Love playing centre? Acquiring Drummond was a fine decision for a team about ready to lose Tristan Thompson and Ante zizic. Or would you rather have Dean Wade play centre and turn this team in to the Washington Generals?
Yeah throwing the bank at a guy based on limited games on an awful team like Minny are how you end up in cap hell and out of the playoffs for the majority of a decade.
An over reaction and pure conjecture on your part without using applied logic.
Nice stuff, Mike. Cabaclo is my fave followed by Damyean Dotson who kiilled the Cavs in NY the last two years. I’d add Furkan Korkmaz, John Henson, Christian Wood, Davis Bertans, Montrezl Harrell, Justin Hollday, Dario Saric, and Pat Connaughton to the starter list. I now there are centers in there but there’s a chance Nance is the Lone big man left this summer Between cheap games with upside and backups I’d add the other Hernangomez brother (Willy in Charlotte), Denzel Valentine, Gary Payton II, Brad Wanamaker. There are some guys that should probably be on the list from G… Read more »
Good piece. Give me Giles and I’m good. Vlade is a moron.
I’d probably be okay with Harkless, too, as long as it wasn’t some nutty deal.
Giles far and away the most intriguing name here for me, granted I’m biased.. but would love to roll the dice on him on a cheap contract. I think he also has the potential to expand his range to 3pt land as his jump shot isn’t too bad.