The frontcourt and how it might work
2011-07-08One of my key NBA theories is that the best teams in the league have frontcourts combinations that click. There’s no cut-and-dry model to it, but if you look at the most successful teams from the past few seasons, their PF/C combinations all had a kind of special chemistry; they knew how to compliment each other offensively and cover for each other defensively.
One thing I regret about the whole LeBron situation is that I’m afraid people will forget just how special the 66-win 08-09 Cavs were, and a lot of what made them special was that they had that frontcourt alchemy. Anderson Varejao (and Ben Wallace, before he broke his leg) were both perfect power forwards defensively and centers offensively. They showed hard out on the perimeter to shut down opposing pick-and-roll play, recovered back to cover the paint, and were always there to contest shots at the rim. On offense, they didn’t take bad shots, always looked for lanes to the rim, and made great cuts. (Wallace wasn’t nearly as good at finishing at the rim as Andy, but he almost made up for it with his passing, which was surprisingly really good.)
Guys who play power forward on defense and center on offense can only work if you have a guy who can be a legitimate center on defense and stretch the floor offensively. The Cavs had that guy in Big Z, who had a career year in 2008-09. Before Mike Brown came in, Big Z was regarded as a defensive liability because of his glacial movement. With Brown’s system working and Varejao and Wallace covering the perimeter, Z was able to stay near the paint and protect the rim without having to move too much, which was a huge, huge deal. Offensively, Z was a machine with his patented set shot, making an impressive 44% of his long 2s and even hitting some corner threes to keep the defense honest. Z had no answer for Dwight Howard in the Conference Finals, and that does deserve mention, but Mike Brown, Andy, Big Ben, and Z had something special going that season. (I feel a LOT of credit should be given to Brown for this — Spoelstra is a darn good defensive coach, and he couldn’t keep Z on the floor defensively in the playoffs.)
Then the Shaq trade happened, followed by the Jamison trade, with both moves sacrificing that special chemistry in order to theoretically help the Cavs match up with Howard, Lewis, and the Magic. I don’t want to be too hard on those moves, so I’ll just say that they doomed the franchise.
When Shaq took Z’s hard-earned spot, crowded the paint, didn’t put in the work on defense, and fired up flat jump-hook after flat jump-hook offensively, the Cavs lost the chemistry that made them special, and the FrankenCavs were completely picked apart by Boston. (Yes, making short-term moves can be blamed on LeBron’s imminent free agency, and LeBron sucked in the last few games of the Boston series. I’m not forgetting that, but non-LeBron things happened to the Cavs in 2009-10.)
The Cavs still have Varejao, and they drafted someone they hope will be a Ben Wallace clone in Tristan “is not Jonas Valanciunas” Thompson. The problem is that they don’t have 2008-09 Big Z, and guys who can protect the rim and stretch the floor don’t grow on trees. So let’s take a look at some of the frontcourt combinations the Cavs can throw out next season, and how they might work:
1. Anderson Varejao and Antawn Jamison
Varejao is a very good defensive center. He can guard the post shockingly well, and he makes up for his lack of shot-blocking by his ability to move his feet, contest shots without fouling, and taking charges. The problem is that he’s not as good defensively at the 5 as he is at the 4, where he can really use his mobility more. Offensively, he’s an ideal modern center. He makes great cuts, he can finish at the rim, and he crashes the glass. He can also play the high-post a little bit and knocks down his mid-range jumper more often than you think. (He’s also developed a bit of a dribble game and post moves, and his shot-fake is bizarrely, bizarrely effective.)
If you’re a long-time reader, you know how I feel about Jamison. He can stretch the floor, but he forces too many shots from the perimeter and in the paint, and he’s the worst defensive forward I have ever seen in my life. When he gets put in the pick-and-roll, it’s 4-on-5 basketball. It’s that simple. Varejao is good defensively as a center, but he’s not Dwight Howard, and can’t cover for Jamison. Still, this is probably your opening-night starting frontcourt.
2. Tristan Thompson and Anderson Varejao
There are three hopes here.
1. That Thompson’s shot-blocking and strength will allow him to make up for his lack of size and allow him to play effective defense at the center position. This can happen — how many true post-up threats are left in the NBA? I’m very much a believer that this is a drive-and-kick league now, and daring the other team’s center to beat you by scoring from the post is not that bad of a defensive strategy.
2. That Thompson can be a passable offensive center. I know he can’t shoot. I know he can’t score from the post. I know he can’t really pass. I’m not asking for TT to be Tim Duncan here. All I want are some good cuts, some strong finishes at the rim, and some garbage baskets. He doesn’t need to be a threat offensively, he just needs to do enough to prevent the Cavs from playing 4-on-5 offensively. Considering that Thompson shot 54% from the field, didn’t finish well at the rim, and didn’t make half of his free throws, I’m skeptical about this proposition. Oh well. It’s not like there were any 7-footers available at the #4 spot who made 70% of their field goals and 90% of their free throws against high-level competition.
3. That Andy’s high-post skills will have evolved enough to allow him to be a passable 4 on offense. Varejao did make a surprising amount of his long 2s last season, and did make some shocking overall progress with his offensive game. However, he spent the entire year injured, and now he’s locked out. When Andy missed the beginning of the season a few years back because of a contract holdout, he apparently spent his time eating everything that couldn’t outrun him. I am skeptical about this proposition as well. Still, this frontcourt might be able to play some real defense, which would be a very welcome change.
(I would have been more excited about Bismack than TT — part of that has to do with the fact that Bismack is, by all accounts, really special defensively, but maybe I’m swayed by the fact that BB is just a cooler pick than TT. At least, that’s what I’m hoping. Also, Biyombo made more than half of his free throws. Have I mentioned that the free throw thing really, really bugs me?)
Ryan Hollins and Anderson Varejao
Watch out for this — it could work, especially with Baron and Kyrie constantly getting into the paint and keeping the defense off-balance enough to keep the lack of outside shooting from crowding the paint. Hollins showed some flashes at the end of the season, and Varejao was playing his ass off at the beginning of it. This could work better than you think. If Hollins stops fouling everything that moves. And Andy, again, can actually make progress as an offensive four. CATCH THE FEVER!
Tristian Thompson and Antawn Jamison
This is where Thompson becomes redundant with Varejao, but it’s not like the Cavs used their #4 pick on a player whose skills overlap with their best frontcourt player or anything. Hopefully TT’s shot-blocking will cover for Jamison’s defense, which is an affront to all that is good and happy.
Tristian Thompson and Ryan Hollins
This will not work offensively, like at all, and Hollins isn’t good enough defensively to make up for that.
Ryan Hollins and Antawn Jamison
I mean, it’ll be entertaining, in a strange way.
Baron Davis/Kyrie Irving/Ramon Sessions/Christian Eyenga/Anderson Varejao
Okay, this is just something I’d do if I was playing 2K12. Still, I would legitimately like to see Eyenga try his hand at the 4-he’s got the shot-blocking and mobility to do it defensively, he could cut to the basket instead of trying to make plays off the dribble, and he can shoot just enough to keep the defense honest. And again, I’m a believer in the “dare them to beat you with post-up buckets” theory.
With that insane idea, I leave you. Be well, everyone.
I also had a jonas v obsession, but I’m starting to develop one for brad beal. Although it if a bit early, he looks like the perfect player for this offense. He doesn’t need the ball to be great so kyrie could still be the primary ball handler. He is a ray allen clone, anf I think he will end up being the best sg from the draft. And outside of kyrie irving and davis, we have no offense to speak of and I just think that beal is our best option if we are picking 5-10.
Yes, but I would prefer a season so that Jamison can be traded to a contender for another asset. Depending on how the front office wants to manage the roster, there are 4 potentially attractive trade pieces over the next few years (Jamison, Sessions, Davis, Varejao). I would expect at least three of them to be traded within the next 2 years and would really like to be able to turn Jamison into a young, contributing player.
So if the lockout takes up the entire year, does that mean that Ryan Hollins and Antawn Jamison won’t be under contract for the Cavs anymore?
John I laughed when I read that you said you didn’t want to hard on the moves – but they “doomed” the franchise. Tough to get harder than that.
We’ll have to wait and see on Jonas vs Tristan. One thing seems certain – there is a decent crop of PF next year and I haven’t heard much about centers…
But Hollinger loved him!
(Note, anytime Hollinger says anything positive about the Cavs it backfires)
NBA Live > 2Kwhatever.
Also, speaking of wing scorers and the U19 world championships: how good does Jeremy Lamb look? I think he could be the perfect backcourt complement to Kyrie. He’s a pretty outside good shooter, was already the #2 guy on an NCAA champion squad, is the go-to guy for the (admittedly disappointing) U.S. U19 squad, and his defensive potential is just off the charts. With those freak stretch-arms, he could lead the league in steals and lock down his man every night. He’s a guy we should really look at if we have a high pick next year, especially if Casspi… Read more »
2. Thompson and Varejao Honestly, it would not work on offense. But who cares? We’re not really playing to win games next year. It makes sense to give playing time to our best frontcourt player (Varejao) and our most important one (Thompson). Even though the offense will look ugly, they could play some fearsome defense together and hopefully we’ll start to build a defensive culture. But again, I’m not so concerned about what our frontcourt will be next season (if there is one). What I’m concerned about is: assuming TT is our Power Forward Of The Future, who will be… Read more »
If any head coach can teach TT a jump shot, it’s Byron Scott. I expect from him a similar learning curve to Hickson. It might take a year and a half for TT to get some offense (if ever), but defensively he can already matchup against some great perimeter-oriented PFs like Bosh, West, Love, or Beasley. I would like to see how the Varejao/Thompson combo would develop. Not much scoring, but they could make even the best frontcourts have to work for their points. It will be interesting to see if the Cavs can find a center to complement TT.… Read more »
John, I always thought of a frontcourt consisting of the 3, 4, and 5. I notice you didn’t mention the combinations with a small forward. Incidently, I felt from DAY ONE it was a mistake to trade for Antwan Jamison even when I heard crazy remarks like, “He will be a better fit than Amaré Stoudemire”. Since I didn’t want the Cavs to trade JJ Hickson I would like to hear your opinion of Omri Casspi. Although I saw Casspi play once or twice nothing really stood out enough for me to remember his game. I’m trying hard to wait… Read more »
Kevin,
You successfully crushed my arguement. I will continue reading Cavs the Blog daily. Maybe I’m a homer, but I always prefer the Cavs draft players who went through the NCAA as opposed to overseas. Although I did just see your boy Jonas, dropped 26 pts, 24 boards, and 5 blocks against Poland…
I should note that I have not seen the details of how the analysis above was conducted, nor do I know Nichloas’ training in statistical analysis. His basic methodology seems fine, but who knows what holes he has in his data, or how it implemented it. As such, I recognize that the results may have issues. The reason I cited to it is I haven’t seen anything else that uses as large a sample of Euro players who have played in both Euroleague and NBA.
Kevin, The posts below are the best analyses of how Euroleague and NCAA performance translate into NBA performance I have found. Arguments for JV being good in the NBA seems to focus on his FG%, FT%, and REBs in Euroleague. As you will see, there is very little relationship between Euroleague FG% and FTA and NBA FG% and FTA. There is, however, a fairly strong relationship between Euroleague FT% and REBS. Overall, I think the data suggest that JV will be a good rebounder who shoots a high percentage from the line, but his FG% in Euroleague should be taken… Read more »
Maybe my last comment was too long? In short, completely agree with Goldchains and Vesus regarding Valanciunas. Thompson gives us a shot-blocker and rim protector, which we sorely need and has great upside on offense. Hollins is the back-up center at best because for Scott’s offense to work, you need a center who can make smart passes and smart cuts, and that’s Andy V. He’ll be the 5 on offense and Thompson, when he’s in at the same time, will be the 4. They may switch on defense.
Valanciunas is getting way too much credit as some sort of “can’t-miss” prospect. He definitely has some tools and lots of potential, but unless he is able to add 20 pounds of muscle, he’ll never make an impact in the NBA.
If Valanciunas really was going to be the next Pau Gasol, he would have gone to Utah over Kanter, who hasn’t played competitively in over a year. Thompson has his warts too, but we don’t have to worry that he may never develop an NBA body.
Ryan P. Goldchains, Many people come into the comment boards and make similar statements about Euro players. I think there is pretty good correlation between Euro performance (at least in high level Euro leagues) and eventual NBA performance. I’m sure you can find exceptions, but I can point to a lot of examples where the Euro player performed in the NBA about as expected based on their Euro stats. Regarding the two players you mention; Vitaly Potapenko played for two years at Wright State (not straight from Euro ball). He was drafted at 21 years old. His production at Wright… Read more »
I’m not excited for any frontcourt that doesn’t include the words “Andy” or “Varejao” in them. Dude has serious skills and is a defensive freak. I think that this year proved that he is the second best post defender in the league behind Dwight. (and Andy is way better on the perimiter, just saying) Eyenga is too small to play the 4, even if we wanted him to. at 6-7 210 he just cant do it. I love him at the 3 because of his insane athleticism where he can still make cuts and play off the ball. He just… Read more »
I don’t often comment on these boards, but I’ve seen enough people say Jonas wouldn’t even play this year, as a reason for not drafting him. a) it’s possible that no one plays this year and Jonas gets another year of development in europe b) so, the cavs would be worse this year with only Irving playing – I’d be ok with that. then we’d get a better pick next year and have Jonas and another rookie to add to the mix. The short term is not the answer. Remember, how quickly we improved with Lebron and thus never got… Read more »
We get it, you hate Tristan Thompson and think Jonas Valanciuanas is destined to become the next Dirk. In my opinion, no matter how good the stats are most european players seem to be hit or miss (not to mention this kid might not even play this year or the next in the NBA). For every Dirk there are 10 Vitaly Potapenko’s. I like the Cavs sticking to their guns and taking the Big 12 Freshman of the Year. Only time will tell who matures into what, but the duo you seem most excited about seems to be Ryan Hollins… Read more »
But it sucks how there are no good 5s next year.
Oh, and after harrison barnes, brad beal is by far my favorite player in next years draft since he has the size and ceiling to be the next ray allen and this team needs all if the offense it can get. I also like austin rivers and micheal gilchrist.
How about TT and Erden? I know that both of them wouldn’t exactly make the best offensive front court, but we are rebuilding, and these are the only 2 front court guys that have a future with this team so why not develop their skills, lose some games, and get harrison barnes in next years draft?
I’m not high on low-efficiency offensive players either, but I think Jamision provides a much-needed scoring threat for the Cavs this year. With upgrades across the board on defense, hopefully Jamison’s presence (or lack thereof) on that end of the floor will not be as terrible a handicap as it was last year.
Good breakdown John. I agree that the 2008-09 team was the strongest Cavs team of the LeBron run. Do you see Varejao being traded at some point this year? This could be why Thompson was picked. I’m with you though in that I wanted Jonas instead.