Randoms: Catching Up

Has the 2020 off-season started yet? After the longest NBA season ever, we have yet to get to the start of the NBA off-season. As the NBA and its players negotiate around what the salary structure and season look like for the 2020-2021 season, only one date appears set in stone: the 2020 NBA draft, which is coming a scant 3.5 weeks away on Wednesday, Nov 18th. (The NBA knows not to try to go head-to-head with Thursday night football). Meanwhile, rumors have percolated (Brian Windhorst and Zack Lowe report), that free agency will commence soon after the draft, immediately followed by training camps, with a proposed 72 game season start date of Dec. 22nd. I hear you all doing the math in your head. It’s going to be a mad mad mad few weeks in the NBA. GMs are gonna need anti-narcolepsy drugs.

While that timeline’s wildly optimistic for the state of the country at that time, we all could use some wild optimism in our lives. After the Orlando bubble, if anyone has proven they can run a professional and safe business under the pressure of Covid-19, it’s the NBA. As our old friend Mike Schreiner emailed me, “they realize how unlikely it is to have fans in attendance this coming season and have decided to just get through it and realign things for 2021-2022.”

Not optimistic? The state of NBA salaries, as Lowe and Windhorst opine.

Talks between the NBA and union have been productive on making the necessary financial allowances on 2020-21 salary-cap and luxury-tax thresholds to account for the massive losses in revenues from the pandemic, sources said.

Ongoing talks are centering on increased escrow taken from players’ salaries, sources said. The league and union are still awaiting full audits on the basketball-related income that accounts for the league’s 51-49 revenue split with players. Agents are bracing for the possibility of up to 40% of the escrow being withheld from players, sources told ESPN. The salary withheld is roughly $1.6 billion based on $4 billion of projected salary for the 2020-21 season.

This is basically the opposite tactic the NBAPA took when the player salaries spiked. Instead of the NBA collectively rewarding and bumping existing salaries during the spike via “cap smoothing” guys like Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov (oh, and LeBron) got the windfall of NBA revenue spike, instead of it being shared among the players. Now, it looks like they’ll share the pain as most players will have the same cap number but a 40% pay cut. This is on top of the 25% pay cuts the NBAPA started taking last spring (prorated salaries until the shutdown were 100%). I have heard some calling for a “tiered” escrow system so that the guys on the bottom of the pay scale aren’t absolutely taking it on the chin, but it’s hard to say how that will work out. On top of that, the salary cap will dip 3-15 million.

https://twitter.com/SportsNom/status/1320540750829027332

SportsNom has it right, and it could make a guy like Andre Drummond pretty valuable if the Cavs are willing to stomach some longer term salary (and I’d be shocked if he didn’t pick up his contract option at this point). If you’re a team in the West who just watched the Lakers bully ball their way through the finals, you’ve got to think it’s time to start getting bigger.

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Seen a lot of mock drafts recently with Obi Toppin going to the Cavs again. Here’s my dilemma. While Toppin would likely be the most explosive finisher the Cavs have had since LeBron, and he does have the ability to step out and hit threes, he’s got some of the worst defensive instincts in the draft, bad or non-existant lateral movement, and terrible defensive footwork. If the goal of competing in the NBA is to win a championship, it’s hard for me to want to draft a guy who would have had a very hard time seeing minutes in the last finals. As desperate as Miami was for a center when Bam Adebayo was hurt, Myers Leonard barely saw the floor against the Lakers. The Cavs’ already have bad defenders at the guard spots. Adding another one at your most important defensive position (center) is a recipe for losses. Of course if you believe in the strength of the 2021 draft, maybe that’s not the worst plan in the world.

Speaking of the lottery, I got some chatter in my twitter feed that Isaac Okoro canceled a media availability session a week or two ago, leading some to speculate that he was made promise and has shut down workouts or availability. Take all of this with multiple grains of salt, but it’s an interesting discussion, to ask “how high would a promise have to be to make Okoro shut it down?” My guess at the time was the Bulls, as they could really use a perimeter defender with size. Rumors linking him to the Knicks don’t feel high enough to me, but he and Thibs would likely be a fantastic fit. And of course the Cavs could also be in the mix. Okoro to the Cavs wouldn’t be the worst option. I see a little Jimmy Butler in Isaac.

Of course my guy for 2020 just got dropped into the discussion at No. 2 according to Tommy Call III at WarriorsWire. Tyrese Halliburton had been in contact with the Warriors, Pistons, and Knicks as he mentioned in his Sep. 30th NBA Media availability session. I love the kid, and imagine he’ll end up with a team like the Spurs or Warriors and be in the league for 15 years. Just check out the maturity of this answer, when he says what he can bring to an NBA team right away.

How many guys tout how good of an “off ball defender” they are?

The Warriors are also into a couple of my other guys: Deni Avdija, who they worked out and interviewed recently, and Saddiq Bey who they expressed interest last summer. The 6-8 Bey shot a blistering 45% on 5.6 attempts per game at Villanova back in the pre-Rona days. I still think Golden State wants to trade out of the pick, but those guys fit the team. However, if they don’t trade, they’re gonna need a big. I’d not be surprised at all to see them want Avdija and take Wiseman. They’ll need some bangers against the Lakers.

If they do trade, Forbes’ and FTS’ Evan Dammarell, and more recently NBC’s Chase Hughes have pitched a deal with the devil: trading Andrew Wiggins to the Cavs. In Dammarell’s pitch, they trade Drummond for Wiggins. In Hughes’, it gets even darker, and they trade Love. Supposedly the haul for Drummond and eating the $94 million (you read that right) remaining on Wiggins’ deal, is a late 2021 first rounder. That’s silly when the Dubs hold Minnesota’s lightly protected pick, and the No. 2 pick this year. The total salary difference between Drummond (a player who adds wins) and Wiggins (a player who subtracts wins) is $67 million. Frankly, eating that salary in this economy should net you a Lakers/Pelicans style haul for Drummond. (I also bristle at Evan’s notion that Wiggins would be “the most talented player on the team’s roster.”) Wiggins is a career loser, and until he proves that he isn’t, teams should exact a hefty bounty for taking him on.

Still, there are going to be lots of opportunities like this for the Cavs if Drummond opts in.  (I mean, he’s got to, right?) And even if he doesn’t, a sign-and-trade option with The Cavs, who have his bird rights, could also be in the cards. Koby better be juggling four cell-phones during the free agency extravaganza.

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Mark my words, there’s going to be a fire sale in Houston. First off, as Henry Abbott wrote in June, “Why did the NBA let a fourth-generation member of a mafia family buy the Rockets?” Disregarding that, Fertitta, a restaurateur, has to be hemorrhaging money right now, which is a difficult position to be in for a guy who could never afford the team in the first place.

Fertitta still needed to raise $2.2 billion—no easy feat, even for one of the world’s thousand richest people. Alexander agreed to finance $275 million of the deal. Fertitta then borrowed $250 million against the value of the Rockets, the maximum allowed by the NBA, and kicked in $300 million of his own money, but that still left him $1.375 billion short. Rather than selling equity in the company, which would have meant giving up full ownership, Fertitta decided to make up that difference by issuing corporate bonds and bank debt.

It begs the question, since the Fed has been buying up corporate bonds and toxic debt since mid-summer, how much of a stake does the Federal Reserve now have in the Houston Rockets?

Regardless, of Fertitta’s outside interests, the Houston bottom line took a huge hit when Daryl Morey took a stand on the right side of history calling for Freedom for Hong Kong, which tanked the NBA’s most lucrative Chinese Broadcast contract, that of the Rockets, and cost the NBA a reported $400 million.

Frankly, the NBA should stop trying to court the Chinese market, as a long, painful cold war is coming sooner than later, and exposure to that market is going to be brutal.

And yes, I know that Fertitta has said  he’s not blowing up the Rockets, but now that Morey’s gone, every player on that team has to available for the right price. In fact, I’d wager for payroll savings and cash, Russell and Eric Gordon are eminently gettable. If I were a Western conference team on the rise, like say, Dallas, I’d be putting in calls about P.J. Tucker yesterday. If the Cavs want to chase a playoff spot, Drummond for PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon, and a protected first for eating salary would be a damned fine start.

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I know it’s been a minute since I’ve posted anything, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t once again compliment the NBA and the incredible job they did pulling off the bubble and the playoffs. The playoffs were enjoyable, surprising, packed with storylines, and saw some major coming out parties. I was beyond impressed with Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, the Joker, Jimmy Butler, Bam, the Raptors, and the overall professionalism and excellence of everyone involved. They kept players safe, believed in science, invented testing regimes, and let players express their grief and rage over violence against African Americans. The walkout after the Bucks game was a poignant moment for the entire country. I know I can’t summarize the experience in a couple paragraphs, and I won’t even try.

The NBA ratings dip had zero to do with the focus on social justice, and everything to do with competing against the NFL, the lack of fans in the arenas, the time shift, and the fact that a whole lot of folks can’t afford cable TV right now. I don’t really care if fewer people are watching the NBA, as long as people who want to watch it can. There will still be an NBA even if ratings dip.

But I feel for the young guys on the revenue cuts. I feel for the minimum salary guys taking pay cuts, and the guys trying to break into the league when teams probably won’t be carrying full rosters this coming year. Those are the guys that are hurt most by the virus, the lack of fans, and the ratings dips. For instance, who knows if there will even be a G-League in the coming season? For the Dean Wades and Alfonzo McKinnies of the world, I hope there will be.

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I hope you’re all doing well, and taking care of each other. I know we’ll all get through this together. It’s good to know that Cavs’ basketball may be less than two months away. I for one, miss it, and you all dearly. Stay safe everyone.