The Big Board 2020: Tyrese Haliburton (Or, if a Ted Talk Played Hoops)

Will the top teams in this draft succumb to groupthink, or will they actually make smart decisions? The top three reported players, James Wiseman, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball aren’t the three best players, but they are considered the three best prospects. It’s also the most over-analyzed draft ever. Why? Because we’ve known who the top players in this draft have been for seven or eight months of Rona purgatory. We’ve looked these guys over like we were digging grandpa’s baseball card collection out of the basement once a month. The question is, will teams succumb to the mock draft groupthink that leaves most of the teams at the top of the lottery year over year, or will they make a smart decision?

Enter Tyrese Haliburton, who was unarguably the best point guard in the country and has the size to play either guard spot. Haliburton wasn’t projected at the top of this draft …well, until recently. Rumors have been percolating of the one thing I don’t want to happen: Haliburton going to the Warriors to replace Shaun Livingston. In a Locked On Podcast with Jeremy Woo Chad Ford broke down recently why Haliburton would make sense for the Dubs, and why he he isn’t on the top of the boards.

Haliburton actually I think has fewer holes than (James) Wiseman, (Anthony) Edwards or LaMelo (Ball), but doesn’t have that one thing that pops, the way LaMelo’s floor vision is for example, or the way that Anthony Edwards’ athleticism really pops off the page and his scoring ability, or Wiseman generally in his size and versatility for his size…

Overall, this is a very very well-rounded basketball player that it’s hard to figure out how he doesn’t succeed in the league.

Haliburton isn’t on the top of most media draft boards because he’s boring. He has a has a weird game based on elite passing and shooting, and is norm-core walking Ted Talk from Osh Kosh who does a lot of things you need to succeed in the NBA as a guard.

The Breakdown: Tyrese Haliburton; Sophomore; Age: 20.7 (Born Feb 29, 2000); Height:6’5”; Weight: 185 pounds; Wingspan: 6’8”; College: Iowa State; Splits: 36.7 minutes, 15.2 Points, Shooting Splits: (50%/42%/82%), 5.9 Rebounds, 6.5 Assists, .7 Blocks, 2.5 Steals, 2.8 Turnovers, 1.4 Fouls.

Haliburton can contribute right now in the NBA. First things first: he’s an absolute knock-down shooter (I bet you thought I was going to list passing first). Know this, while Haliburton has an unorthodox shot, he absolutely has NBA range and regularly hit shots in college out to 30 feet.

The Stepien’s Spencer Pearlman described it well (nine months ago).

Weird form – though the form looks better than last year (and it is still very unorthodox). The mechanics once he brings the ball to his shot pocket aren’t horrible, though still odd – his elbow is nice, relaxed, and not flaring (nice job pointing it to the rim); he has a quick release and does not get phased by closeouts; the ball looks like it’s coming off the correct fingers; he has a nice follow through; and the shot is released from around head level.

Pearlman notes that Ty’s not a great off the bounce shooter, but could be successful coming off flare screens, most importantly, he’s an elite catch-and-shoot guy. In checking out his recent film working out at Impact Basketball Academy, Pearlman’s criticism that Haliburton starts the ball too low on his jump shot before he gets it into his shooting pocket seems fixed. There’s no dip, and his shooting pocket starts chin high. He has improved on Pearlman’s criticism of his feet being too close together, but I do think there’s a bit too much “noise” when Haliburton kicks his right foot pretty far forward. But, given Pearlman’s notes of reading and running off baseline screens, and setting and getting shots up quickly, Haliburton’s got the tools and quick release to be an absolutely deadly corner three ball shooter, and the college results speak for themselves. Haliburton was 43% as a Freshman from 3 and 42% as a sophomore, ranking in the 99th percentile (1.43 ppp) as a Spot Up shooter via synergy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFIprOQyZP0&t=7s

Tyrese gets great rotation on the ball when he shoots. It makes up for the fact that the ball can come out a little flat at times (though, it’s just outside of being too flat a parabola). He has great touch and puts great spin on the ball, and really shoots with his core and his hands without a ton of elbow flexion or knee bend. That’s part of why he’s going to be a fantastic catch-and-shoot guy from the corners. Part of what makes Haliburton’s jump shot so deft, is what makes his other two biggest skills stand out, too. Haliburton has really strong hands, which leads to great touch and spin around the basket, leading to solid finishing ability. More importantly hand strength plays into his absolutely stellar passing ability and his kleptomaniac defense.

Haliburton can make all the passes with either hand, and his superior basketball IQ allows him to laser them with pinpoint accuracy. Somewhere in the above highlights, he’s got a clip of him jumping to grab a deflection, turning around in mid-air and flicking it 3/4 of the way down the court as if it were a dart. He’s a great swing passer, but also does a super nice job of looking off the defense and hitting open guys on cuts, rolls, or spot-ups, leading him to finish with 6.5 assists per game.

In addition, Ty is a solid team defender, and as I noted on Monday, he prides himself on off-ball defense, which is beyond weird for a rookie. His wingspan, quick hands, and defensive instincts will lead to a lot of NBA steals. He also does a nice job of recovering when beat, and can get back in the picture for an occasional block, and does little things like picking up the roll man on a p/r. He also doesn’t foul, picking up just 1.4 in over 36 minutes a game.

Now let’s talk about what Ty’s not good at. He’s light. He’s “bulked up” to 185 pounds — or as David Wood noted Wednesday, “scrawny.” It leaves the Cyclone as a guy who’s gonna get pushed around on defense, and especially when he’s on the ball against the Russell Westbrooks of the world. He’s gonna get trapped on some screens, and when he gets on a defender’s hip, he’s going to be a little hapless for a while. He could guard the ball against some NBA bench guards, but his lack of strength, high hips, and non-ideal defensive stance is going to be a problem against starting ball-handlers for a while. He’s a little too “jumpy” and overall doesn’t play the pick-and-roll well on ball (opposing guards shot 48.7 against him according to Synergy – 24th percentile). While he did rank in the 84th percentile (.5 PPP) guarding isolations, Ty’s role is going to be strictly guarding off-ball guards for a while, where his defensive IQ and active hands will help him get a lot of deflections.

That being said, he’s got some wiry strength, specially in the the aforementioned hands, and might have a bit of a Reggie Miller build. While he’s not Chuck Barkley, his legs aren’t sticks, either, and he’s got a frame to add muscle to, especially in the shoulders. Given the Cavs’ workout culture, I’ve no doubts that would happen.

Ty’s also not an elite athlete. He doesn’t jump from the knees, and uses his calves for most of his lift, which means his vertical is never gonna blow anyone away. He is a very long strider, but he doesn’t have an explosive first step or a ton of wiggle or ability to change directions. Haliburton’s going to pick up some charges. When he does get by people, it’s usually via a pump or ball fake, or using a screen. Haliburton’s pull-up game has been described as “almost nonexistent.” Watching the impact video, it’s clear that he’s been working on a pull-up. Also, if you watched the impact video, you know that Haliburton’s handle is… ok. In short Ty Haliburton’s not going to be a guy you’re going to throw it to when you need a bucket in isolation. (If you want that guy go look at Killian Hayes). Haliburton Island is an archipelago. He needs screens.

I have a discussion going on with @Spacefunmars who insists that Tyrese Haliburton is not a “playmaker.” That’s not completely true. While he’s not a one-on-one worldbeater, Haliburton is a very good pick-and-roll player who has the ability to make any pass in the book. Jake Paynting from CanisHoopus describes it well.

The 20-year-old is masterful at finding pockets of space to thread the orange through, lacing out big men as they rumble down the lane on a consistent basis. Needling bounce passes through the gaps in the defensive coverage is Haliburton’s bread and butter, and a pass that scarcely loses value in any system around the Association…

Even with teammates who struggled to finish around the rim and weren’t able to stretch the floor at a high level, his bigs still scored 1.06 points per possession (PPP) in the pick-and-roll when Haliburton was the one setting the table, grading out in the 63rd percentile.

Watching Haliburton’s film, in the half-court, it’s clear that when the ball’s in his hands, he’s at his best with a screen or a set action. His ability to read the whole floor, find guys anywhere on it, and deliver the ball at a variety of angles, with a complete array of passes, will be very fun to watch. He does love to jump pass, but doesn’t turn it over too often from there, he absolutely takes care of the ball, and most importantly, rarely takes dumb shots. But to bolster @Spacefunmars’ argument he doesn’t create his own shot much, and while he’s good at maneuvering around screens and setting guys up, he wasn’t consistent or aggressive enough to shoot when defenders went under, and he only got to the basket 74 times in the half court and to the free-throw line twice a game. Too often he had to settle for contested mid-rangers at the end of a shot clock.

Tyrese is a weird player: he is fantastic at setting up others, but needs others to set him up for most of his half-court offense. On a dynamic offensive team like the Dubs that could work. On a team that doesn’t pass like the Beilein Cavs, that could be a disaster.

Despite the weaknesses, there’s a few reasons that Haliburton would be an ideal Cavalier: the length, the shooting, the passing, but most importantly the extremely high basketball IQ and character. Everyone raves about his attitude and leadership. He’s the son of a coach, and he’d absolutely be a foundational piece of the culture the Cavs are trying to build. But the other reason to buy Haliburton stock if you’re a Cavalier fan: he’s absolutely lethal in transition.

How he’d fit on the Cavs

Haliburton’s ability to board and go is possibly his best asset. Despite his wiry frame, Haliburton’s near six rebounds a game and his ability to pilfer the ball gives whatever team he plays an advantage because Haliburton is lethal in transition. Jake Paynting breaks it down again.

Over 82 possessions, Haliburton ranked in the 94th percentile, with 1.39 points per possession and a sizzling 76.2 percent field goal percentage providing statistical confirmation to the fun eye test. Mix in his passing in transition, and that rises to the 99th percentile in transition (1.76 PPP).

https://streamable.com/2xj9sj

With Kevin Love, Larry Nance, Collin Sexton, and Kevin Porter Junior, the Cavs already have the ability to play fast. With his playmaking skills, yet off-ball scoring, Haliburton would be an ideal back-court mate for Collin Sexton offensively. Sexton and Haliburton could push the pace in transition as well as any backcourt in the NBA, and the dude would be oustanding in the corner or stretching the defense out to the deep wing. I’m also convinced that he’s got a solid set of skills as slasher, given his IQ and finishing ability. While his lack of a ball-in-his hands scoring threat makes him difficult to fathom as a primary half-court initiator tough in today’s NBA, his ability to be a secondary playmaker, or to initiate the offense and then get to open spots, would be a very nice complement to Sexton, Love, Nance, KPJ, and Drummond. He’d also have an easier time making post entry passes than the Cavs’ lilliputian guards.

Given Haliburton’s defensive struggles, it would tough to play him with Garland or Sexton, but I have a hard time believing he’d be worse than the the GarTon back court defensively, and his shooting, transition scoring, and passing will translate right away to NBA ready skills, while he works on building muscle. Sexton is a nice case study in what Haliburton could become too, in that early on Sexton was a straight-line scorer with speed but very little shiftiness. More recently, Youngbull has learned to vary his attacks, speeds, and angles, and gotten himself a bit of wiggle. That’s exactly the kind of tutelage Haliburton needs to expand his game and become a driving threat.

Until then he can run pick-and-roll, come off left side pin-downs, initiate and spot up, and rebound-and-push.

What he Should be Working On:

Strength, handle, adding a Euro-step, and burst. I’m really happy with the adjustments he’s made to his J, and he just needs to keep shooting it. He needs to work on how to attack the basket in the half court, and maximizing his skill as an off-ball guard. Most importantly offensively, he needs to work on shooting coming off screens. He needs to watch a lot of clips of Klay Thompson, as that’s a guy who Haliburton needs to emulate: an off ball scorer who’s a master of relocating and shooting, but has enough flash to his game that his passing skills are going to be gravy. Defensively: strength and optimizing his defensive stance for maximum lateral movement.

Why the Cavs Should (or Shouldn’t) draft him.

Haliburton has a very high floor, and as Ford said, it’s hard to see him failing in the NBA. Does he have star potential? If he does, it’s as an elite shooter and sometime floor general. His best case is probably Kevin Martin (who was also a skinny but great shooter with an unorthodox shot) with the ability to run pick-and roll and push the ball in transition (and hopefully better defense). Tyrese is a unique player whose skills don’t fit a traditional NBA positional skillset. On the right team, with the right training, he could absolutely be a starter on a high level playoff team, and he’s a guy who will help build your team’s culture and on-the-court intelligence. He’s also a self confessed “midwest guy.” I want a guy who will embrace Cleveland.

Further, he comes off as one of the brightest and most engaging young players in the game. The Athletic’s CJ Moore noted that a former coach called him “little Obama.” In the below interview with Dom2K, Tyrese comes off as humble, smart, aware of his weaknesses and what he needs to do to succeed. He seems like the type of guy to “give himself to the group” and strive for team success. His recipe for success he notes around the 7:30 mark is “find the hardest worker, and do what he does.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=puN7uSuzWjQ

After writing this piece, I’m less confident about his defense than I was before I started it, but I do believe in his ability to see the floor, move the defense with his eyes, shoot, and to be a great team defender who gets a lot of steals. Chad Ford was wrong. There are three things about Haliburton’s game that pop: his ability to to see the game and anticipate what’s going to happen before it happens, both on offense and defense, and his ability to be an absolutely deadly spot-up shooter. The abilities between Tyrese Haliburton’s ears are as rare as a 48 inch vertical. We’ll see if the teams at the top of the draft, including the Cavs, are as smart.