The Big Board 2020: Killian Hayes (Or, Top Prospect Darkhorse?)

We continue through the 2020 NBA Draft profile series as we are just a week away from the draft.  The LaMelo Ball noise is the topic of the day with alleged teams wanting to trade up for the youngest Ball sibling who only 48 hours ago was allegedly possibly falling out of the top 3.  Oh yeah, and now James Wiseman might be the top target?

https://twitter.com/TheNBACentral/status/1325525837194653698

Buckle up, because these reports, smokescreens, and thoughts are everyone’s best reasons of why your favorite team will miss on the draft.

French point guard Killian Hayes is an expected top-10 pick, but #Cavs aren’t interested in adding another young guard via draft, Hayes’ agent says. https://t.co/QJalrb7d4u pic.twitter.com/LU9I2gtBbI

— Sam Amico (@AmicoHoops) July 18, 2020

With literally no consensus in the lottery, people have a broad range of opinion.  Though a somewhat darkhorse late climber, Killian Hayes is definitely someone who I think the Cavs should seriously consider in the upcoming draft, despite not have that much reported interest.

The Breakdown: Killian Hayes, Age: 18.8 Height: 6-5; Wingspan: 6-8; Weight: 215 lbs, Ulm (Germany). Splits (Pts./Reb./Ast.): 12.8/3.2/6.2, 1.5 steals. Shooting Splits (FG/3Pt/FT): 46/39/91.

Killian Hayes has been a professional ball player in Europe for the past three seasons.  An extremely young prospect despite being a pro already, Hayes has improved every year.  Son of an ABA player, Hayes was born in Florida but spent most of his time in Europe.  Despite wanting to come back to the United States and play in the American basketball scene, his father encourage Killian to work on his game in Europe while consistently playing against older competition.

Killian’s strengths include his size, length, basketball IQ, defensive abilities, shot-creation, and pick & roll handling/decision-making.  Hayes really impressed this past season in the top German league by showcasing a much improved jump shot (39% from three and 90%+ from the FT line).  In addition, he set up teammates really well despite being new to the squad and highlighted much better decision making in the pick & roll.

Hayes uses his size well, especially on the dribble and when he gets ahead of his defender.  Killian can also be a wrecking ball in transition, either driving to the hoop for a finish or making the right pass to a trailing teammate.  Defensively, Hayes uses his length effectively and can check most players 1-4 by using his high basketball IQ.  In an upside scenario, Hayes can be a versatile playmaker while being able to hit outside shots and defend at an acceptable level.

Some people are extremely high on Killian, including The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor, who has had Killian Hayes ranked as his top prospect since the early spring.

• Playmaking is his best skill. He can whip passes off the dribble with accuracy and hit cutters or rollers with precision.

• Creative pick-and-roll facilitator. Despite his weak right hand, he gets where he wants and knows how to manipulate defenses to create passing angles and openings to score.

• Fluid ball handler with the size to outmuscle smaller guards.

• Excellent touch with his left hand finishing difficult floaters and runners, often after initiating contact.

• Displays major potential as an off-the-dribble 3-point shooter with Hardenesque moves. Added a stepback and sidestep 3 to his arsenal and uses hesitations to get into pull-ups.

• His catch-and-shoot shooting numbers are concerning, but he has smooth form, a soft touch inside, and a free throw percentage over 80—all of which suggest he’ll figure it out.

• Tall, with a strong frame and long arms, making him a projectably versatile defender against guards and wings.

• Active off-ball menace who could develop into a disruptive defensive helper.

In terms weaknesses in Hayes’s game, the most “unfixable” one is his athleticism.  Despite having the smarts and angles to get to the hoop, Hayes clearly is not a plus athlete and has never truly demonstrated burst or bounce. In addition to his athleticism, Killian is extremely left-hand dominant, not showing much improvement with his finishing with his off-hand.

Another area of improvement for Hayes could be his turnovers.  Hayes loves to play fast and make the right play but at times, he plays too fast for his own good, leading to some sloppy sequences (3.3 TOPG).  Defensively, although solid as an on-ball defender, Hayes has been known to lose people off-ball and through contact.  Candidly, these weaknesses may be improved with experience as Hayes is still under 20 years old.  Below is a take from our European C:tB’er Ben Werth.

Hayes is very polished for what he does which worries me. His “explosive” moves are mostly pet moves that he gets off in the right moments. The same could be said about a lot of guys. His athleticism is not high every play shall we say.

He seems to have trouble beating the second guy. All decent ball handlers now understand how to get a guy on your hip in transition or PnR. Luka is the master, edging out Bron and Harden in that task by doing it nearly every trip. He simply won’t let you get back into a play if you are caught behind.

Hayes knows how to do it, but unlike Luka and the greats, he can’t seem to dust the guy in front of him while keeping the guy behind on his hip. That start stop and strength combo isn’t there for him at a high enough level for a guy without explosive speed.

His shot motion needs to be cleaned up. He dips below his waist almost every time. He will get that timed up in the NBA and defenders will Battier him all the time.

D, he won’t be a trainwreck because of his size, but I worry again about his game athleticism there.

How He’d Fit on the Cavs: Hayes’s fit with the Cavs actually may be a big reason why they have allegedly not been that interested in him. Hayes could slot in at the wing initially while being tasked to be a secondary playmaker from the onset while helping defend.  Hayes arguably could be the best playmaker if selected by the Cavs but the fit is a bit strange admittedly.  Drafting Hayes adds another player that really needs the ball to maximize his potential and the Cavs already have Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, and even Kevin Porter Jr. who might need the ball to develop as quickly as possible.

In terms of a comp for me, D’Angelo Russell comes to mind, which is a bit lazy since both are left-handed.  Another comp in my opinion is Spencer Dinwiddie, a tall rangy playmaker who can shoot, distribute, and defend.  Both aren’t considered “stars” yet but both have shown to improve teams which makes Hayes a very intriguing prospect to me despite the fit concerns.

What he should be working on: Right hand, off-ball movement, and off-ball defense.  Hayes has the smarts and experience to be an impactful player on both ends but adding a right hand would only help to mask his hard-to-fix problem of elite athleticism.

Why the Cavs Should (or Shouldn’t) Draft Him:

There are many reasons to like Killian Hayes’s game despite the potential awkward fit with the Cavaliers.  He’s a high character/work ethic guy with professional experience.  I think he could fit on the wing but to unlock his potential, he would have to play with the ball as much and early as possible.  Personally, I would be willing to take the chance on Hayes’s talent because I just frankly see more potential in him as a playmaker/creator/defender than Sexton or Garland but I’m not sure Koby Altman and company feel the same way.

Considering the Cavs FO wanting to stick with their “plan” of making Sexton, Garland, and Porter Jr. work, I don’t think Hayes is in serious consideration.  However, if the Cavs pull a shocker and again draft someone they don’t interview, I would be extremely satisfied with their decision.