Podcap: Cleveland 118, Philadelphia 94 (Best Case Scenario)
2020-12-28After a late scratch by Joel Embiid, the Cavs boat raced the unsuspecting Sixers Sunday, and posted another monster second quarter (35 points) to spring to a 14 point halftime lead. They won the final two quarters as well, with their lead ballooning to as much 32 points in a game that may open some eyes around the Association. If there is one thing that has excited Cavs fans in this 3-0 start it’s the play of Darius Garland, whos’ been absolutely scintillating averaging 19 points and 8.3 assists a game, and leading a team that is second in the NBA in assists.
But the real revelation has been Andre Drummond who is playing like a defensive player of the year candidate so far, and whose gravity around the basket is opening up the entire offense for the rest of the Cavs. He’s got five blocks and eight steals already in three games to go along with 20/15/4 averages.
There’s so much to love about this Cavs team so far, and in many ways, it’s all falling into place in a “best case scenario” way most of us didn’t expect. To break it all down, our own EvilGenius returned to the podcast booth with Ryan Yankee and Nate Smith. We talked about the game and how the Cavs ambushed the Sixers, as well as how the Cavs players all seem to have improved significantly since last season. Cedi, Collin, Darius, Andre, Larry, and more all seem better. Only Kevin Love seems to be struggling to return to form.
Given that, we dared to dream about whether this is sustainable, and if it is what the Cavs should do with Andre Drummond. Do they think about extending him? Do t hey make any trades? Who do they pay? It’s an interesting and fun discussion as we dove into a pretty deep analysis of all the Cavs’ players.
Enjoy the best case scenario and listen below, download the full mp3 audio file, or check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn, and Spotify.
29 HAS REPLACED 23 AS THE NEW ASSIST STANDARD 👍
LOVE LITE LOOKING FOR A BIG NIGHT—-POSSIBLY “LE”THON SIGHTING/ GO CAVS
Stinks. Exciting player.
Figured that was coming. So much for Memphis’s playoff hopes. Have a feeling they’ll be in a pretty deep hole by the time he comes back.
It sucks, but I didn’t really think they were making the playoffs this year, anyway. In the East, probably, but not the West.
No but I think they would be in the play-in tourney where anything could happen.
OUCH —YEP IN AGREEMENT —(LOVE OUT )—-TOTALLY SUCKS —I TOOK THE ATTITUDE WITH THE LONG LAY OFF WOULD BE BENIFICIAL IN ALLOWING THE BODY REST / HEAL / GET STRONGER —WAS HOPING TO SEE HIM AND DRE HAVE SOME GAMES TOGETHER AND ALSO ALLOW JB ‘S CREATIVE THINKING ON ROTATIONS AND MIS- MATCHES —-UNFORTUNATELY –( HOPE I AM– TOTALLY WRONG )—ME THINKS WINDLER HAS SAME ” LOVE INJURY DNA ” : – (
Great podcast! So good to hear everyone again, a small taste of normality that I’m so sorely in need of and in line with this bizarre year a most unexpected 3-0 start to the season. Thanks CtB!
damn this sucks… Nance will have no trouble getting minutes, Dean better get ready, he was disappointing last outing.
Beat me to it. Yeah. It stinks.
I wonder how many early season muscle injuries there will be due to a shortened camp or such a long layoff for some of these teams.
IDK… he’s 32, just gonna have to be diligent about load management, and he has to stay in condition.
happy for Dean though, this is his shot… he could secure his NBA spot.
I think we need to be cautious with him when he gets back. Rest on back to backs. I don’t think it was a good idea to play him against philly after the OT game in Detroit this early in the season, especially when Detroit was the first time he played in forever.
yeah he played a ton of minutes LMFAOOOO should’ve bit the bullet but i respect him for trying to earn his paycheck.
Feel for the guy. Another season, another injury.
WELCOME BACK BUCKAROO —-DOING FINE / STAYING SAFE HERE ON “THE SHORES OF LAKE ERIE”—–GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU / JOIN THE GANG ‘LIVE ‘ SOMETIME
So this is kinda amusing:
https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/advanced/?sort=PIE&dir=-1
The Cavs are in the top 10 in almost every category, the top 5 in a lot of them, and are #1 in the league in PIE.
I severely doubt it could possibly last, but enjoy it for a moment.
Defense!!! I love it. Cavs currently ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency. The Cavs zone is totally taking teams out of their rhythm, forcing them to shoot over the top more than they feel comfortable. Sexton’s awful off ball D is a non factor in Zone allowing him to be the best version of himself on that end. Cavs first in steals, which considering the roster, shouldn’t be that bit of an outlier. Sexton and Garland playing with confidence off of the coaching strategy, “use your bigs, feed the post, don’t dribble around without direction”. All the bigs… Read more »
yup, JB had said that the first thing they addressed defensively was how to stop points at the basket…. their own analytics supposedly dictated that approach. the Bucks defensive scheme is the same idea according some of the other fans i talk to.
Also another thing I think what the zone does that helps Sexland is make defending the high pick and roll easier for them… it’s an auto switch and they’re keeping pressure on the ball instead of allowing a clear driving lane or open 3.
All true. No one can fault a team of completely engaged players.
Wonder what your perspective is Ben on EG’s devil’s advocate question on the readiness of most opponents at this point of the season, given the various issues that have confronted players over the last 6 months, particularly those involved in the recent playoffs.
Defense and actual passing. Didn’t think we’d see this for a long time. I’ll take a few extra turnovers with the ball movement. This is a fun team, and it’s just not me, or us, saying that, I have heard numerous national guys make that same observation.
NOMAD BRO.. how’s it hanging ? stay safe my friend (and all the rest of you fine folks too)..
what’s the story with our gangsta-in-training ? suspended ? if so, for how long ? i imagine that is nasty baggage that few pro teams wants around the locker room.. is he redeemable or toast ?
other than than that.. so far so good.. uncle buck might need to watch a game.. highlights have impressed me, might be cinderella story in the making..
Just a sprain, sounds like, but could keep him out a while…
High ankle sprains are no joke. Could be a two month injury at worst.
The podcast made me realize how many similarities I see between the Cavs and the Browns: 1. Having recently having dumpster fires of coaches (Kitchens/Beilein) but now have young coaches that are humble, smart, and have the team buying into what they coaching 2. No longer being the laughing stock of the league 3. Neophyte GMs (although I believe in Berry more than Koby) 4. Make it or break it Year #3 for key players (Baker and Sexton) 5. Drafting the unsexy but super solid pick to help cover said players’ weaknesses (Wills and Okoro) I’m sure there are more… Read more »
Dinwiddie has partial ACL tear. Likely done for the season. Tough break for him and the Nets.
Especially if (when) Irving misses time.
STILL HAVEN’T GOTTEN THE CHANCE THIS SEASON SO FAR TO SEE A HEALTHY LOVE / WINDLER/ DELLY IN OUR ROTATIONS / MIGHT MAKE JB’S JOB EVEN MORE DIFFICULT ALONG WITH WHEN KPJ IS READY —-WHO I WAS REALLY EAGER TO SEE PLAY –HAS ANYONE HEARD ANY LATE DEVELOPMENT / NEWS ABOUT HIM / CAVS ARE RATHER TIGHT LIPPED PERTAINING TO KPJ AND MAYBE RIGHTFULLY SO
Great pod! Commenting as I listen. Some may not age well.
Best case scenarios: Bickerstaff, team buy in, Drummond, Garland, Sexton, Cedi, passing, McGee, LNJ, Okoro, forcing TOs.
Looking good: Exum, Wade, Dotson.
Less than ideal: Love, Windler, Delly, KPJ.
Can we pump the breaks on the LNJ > Love talk? Larry got bageled in the Detroit game. Can you imagine if Love scored 0 points in 2OT game? Plus, call me skeptical on the shooting holding on high value. Love’s scoring, spacing, and rebounding are still valuable.
I love LNJ, but I like him more as a Swiss Army knife type. He is not a reliable scorer. Have no problem keeping Love, LNJ, Dre, and McGee. I like the versatility. Play big. Play small (have not seen that much yet).
Last night made me realize that the Cavs may have their roster built to help Garland and Sexton when the encounter truly long and athletic guards especially primary ball handling guards. Matching up LNJ with Simmons and having Exum and Okoro in place to do the same might be a great idea going forward. The Smurfs are playing much more aggressively and when getting beat they are at least doing it in a way that they funnel the man they are guarding into Drummond and Co. They are also staying engaged to help guard the players left open once their… Read more »
Guys. The game was in Cleveland. Yeesh.
Yeah. We got around to that. Sorry. was tired.
It’s not like we didn’t correct ourselves. Yeesh…
To me the biggest story this season is Bickerstaff. So far these guys seemed to have bought in. Beyond that the amount of off ball movement and willingness to pass and occasionally overpass by seemingly the whole team is a truly unexpected and welcome surprise. They seem to get a number of layups off opportunistic cuts and backdoors every half. Beyond that they really have looked for quick outlets to start running, leading to an effective transition offense. Some transition opportunities have looked better than others, eg Drummond block and pass to Garland leading to behind the back dump off… Read more »
Amen.
If our 3 vets buy in, that will be huge. Look, I will expect some bonehead plays from McGee & Drummond: ill-advised shots, etc. But if both are mostly engaged defensively and Dre does not pretend he is Shaq/Kareem/Duncan/ Dirk on offense, it will be huge. As will Kev’s engagement on D (particularly in transition).
I think the young guys are fountains, not drains, as Altman said. Maybe with one exception.
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1343591097822572545?s=20
Nance & Love have been off the charts off the court. Drummond also seems like a really good dude.
danny moneybags should’ve covered it!!! LMFAO
This is great but also kind of awful that management didn’t do this.
Great on love. But yeah the organization should have stepped in. Kind of ridiculous a player has to step up.
I read some comments on the philly blog last night. A few caught my eye. They thought Love was washed. Looked at how he moved, how he could barely jump, and how he had zero lateral mobility. Maybe that is the calf thing
Continued….Maybe that is the calf thing but he really hasn’t been mobile in 3 years. I don’t know if he is washed, but I do know Nance is a far superior player these days, especially if he continues shooting the three like he has. If Nance shoots the three like he has he equals love in the one thing Love had over him. Otherwise I think Nance is a better finisher, passer, defender (obviously).
I should say I like Love as a player and a guy, but I want to play our best lineups. Nance should start.
He’s not washed, and I don’t think Nance is the superior player either.
I don’t think love has been able to do anything on d but take an occasional charge for years now. Smarts, instincts, and awareness can only take you so far on d. At some point you have to be able to move quickly or be tall enough and athletic enough to protect the rim. For this team with the undersized guards we have in the starting lineup, you have to have 2 to 3 plus defenders at the forward and center positions to offset that. I am not sure he is washed either, but I don’t think his offense has… Read more »
Love was a net positive statistically last year even with his disastrous start.
No way would I consider Nance the better shooter at this point, I think Nance could equal Love’s level though depending how this year goes.
I don’t think he’s taller or stronger either… also I’d give the rebounding edge to KLOVE too.
I think Nance is right up there, but not quite yet. After this season, I may change my mind.
Love OBPM: 2.60, DBPM: -0.60…. BPM 2.0, RPM, PIPM all showing Love’s offense outweighed his defense last year… and pretty much every year he’s ever played I’d imagine.
PIPM Nance was higher, but Love had a higher RPM and BPM.
whatever the case, Love was good last year, and probably better than Nance.
I take BPM numbers, especially defensive BPM, with a grain of salt. RPM is a better indicator and even then I am still skeptical of it as a metric, especially defensively. As far as above Love probably is a better defensive rebounder, though I am not sure about offensive. Nance is functionally taller because he is functionally longer and can leap. As far as shooting, well if love has time to get the shot off he is pretty consistent and almost certainly better, though we’ll see how this season goes, but I just don’t see how Sexland functions as well… Read more »
I think he’s just hurt. Also he is notoriously bad in back-to-backs and plays much better when rested. That effect will likely increase as he gets older.
Back to back effect is a thing. But if that is the case then just rest him and start Nance on those days. Obviously Nance started last night due to Okoro, but they could have started Cedi and Nance last night and rested love.
Well… this answers one of my questions from the pod…
“May you live in interesting times.” -Ancient Chinese curse
The second part:
“May you find what you’re looking for.:
We have a boatload of money next year. Might as well pay Drummond. Durable 27 yr old beast man, elite rim protection and rebounding. Balances well with Sexton and Garland. With offensive touch he’d be a top 15 player in the league, but I’ll take him for what he is right now.
It would be difficult to draft, trade, or sign for similar value to what he offers.
He keeps playing like this and you have to max him.
Buddy of mine did box component PIPM for the rookies… here’s how they’re ranked overall so far thru last night I believe:
Okoro ranked 8th, Peyton Pritchard, 7th, Pat Williams 6th, Tyrese Maxey 18th.
Watched primarily the 4th quarter live and then some highlights of the game. Looked like this game got away around the second quarter and Cavs never looked back. This was a game where the potential went in a positive direction, even for guys like Dotson and Wade, and to a degree Exum. Still think as long as Garland and Sexton are getting buckets and Drummond/Nance make plays around the basket at both ends this team is solid. Good to see some run from Love and Cedi as well. The ball movement is very crisp. Be interesting to see if/when KPJ… Read more »
Some individual things: DG has the potential to be among the best PGs in the NBA…. elite assist ratio, net rating, TS%, turnover rate, defense… he’s doing it all. Can he be consistent, and stay away from bad lulls. Okoro: potential to be one of the best defenders in the NBA as a rookie, and has the potential be a top forward in the NBA alone for his defensive impact and passing. Elite passer for his position, average shooting but obviously SSS… needs to improve rebounding. Sexton: elite shooting, passing has gone from bad to just about average, and most… Read more »
Garland’s TS is inflated by unsustainably hot jump shooting, that will come down. His handle, quickness and passing are legitimate NBA weapons, but without a much higher FTr his TS will be capped at a sub elite level. Steve Nash is the upside model of a passing/heavy jump shooting player and his career average FTr was still 2.5x what Garlands is so far, and his worst season 50% larger (and that was a not good season). Brogdan is another guy who makes his living without a lot of contact.
yeah i saw that on the four factors numbers… thanks for the comps too, will go check out the numbers on both of those guys.
OFFRTG: 111.9, ranked 10th
DEFRTG: 100.3, ranked 2nd
NETRTG: +11.6, ranked 4th
Assist ratio: 20.4, ranked 3rd
TS%: 60.0%, ranked 6th
Wanted to throw in Fedor’s piece which has some more stats.
https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2020/12/cleveland-cavaliers-passing-every-test-proving-doubters-wrong-early-on.html
Assists = 1st (24th last year)
Defense = 2nd (30th last year) (DRtg)
Defensive FG% = 7th (30th last year)
yeah, I try to stick to the advanced ones for a better relative comparisons… Fedor has a tendency to throw around counting stats to fit his agenda re: Sexland for instance.
Looking at some stats to see if some numbers jump out, here’s what four factors is saying IMO:
Offense: elite shooting, average at attacking the rim, average at offensive rebounds, below average turnover rate.
Defense: average at contesting shots, average at avoiding fouls, elite at causing turnovers, top 10 in preventing offensive rebounds.
I also noticed we are currently:
1st in steals
3rd in FG%
1st in 3PT%
HAVE BEEN THINKING THAT ALSO THE LAST 3 GAMES —( ALBEIT ) IT IS EARLY—–BUT MAN THE WAY DRE HAS PERFORMED DO YOU NOW ENTERTAIN THE IDEA OF KEEEPING HIM ——WHEN JUST A MONTH AGO IT WAS ALMOST A DEFINITE THAT HE WOULD BE TRADED —-REALLY THINKS HE ENJOYS IT HERE / HIS TEAMMMATES ETC——WOULD PREFER TO KEEP HIM AND ONCE AGAIN LOOK FOR A POSSIBLE KLOVE TRADE ————-JB TALKED ABOUT IT LAST NIGHT IN HIS POSTGAME / WE “WANT TO BE READY WHEN ADVERSITY HITS / HOW WILL WE REACT” —–HE IS CORRECT / IT WILL COME EVENTUALLY /… Read more »
Nobody is trading for Kevin without the Cavs attaching assets. Why not just keep him? Who else are you going to pay?
That is what everyone said about CP3 a year ago, and Westbrook twice in the past 2 years. Love needs to be healthy and play well, if he does some team will find an excuse to take him off if the Cavs want to move him.