Podcap: Cleveland 147, Brooklyn 135 (2OT – Scary Hours)
2021-01-21Collin Sexton might have stolen his new nickname from Drake and the Nets’ big three. With Kyrie Irving joining James Harden and Kevin Durant for the trio’s first game together, the Cavs paid no attention to the names on the jerseys, going on a 16-0 run to close the first quarter behind the hot shooting of Cedi Osman. Despite nurturing and watering a lead to a 14 point cushion in the third quarter, the Cavs let the Nets hang around and then paid the price as Brooklyn tied it up, and used shoddy officiating to deny the Cavs a final shot to win it before overtime.
SCARY HOURS!
— James Harden (@JHarden13) January 19, 2021
In the first OT, all seemed lost when the Cavs trailed by five with about a minute left before crucial jumpers from Jarrett Allen and Larry Nance Junior kept Cleveland close and then Collin Sexton put the game on his back. After putting back an airball to cut the Nets lead to one, the Cavs played the free throw game before Collin Sexton burned and annoyed Kyrie Irving by tying the game on an iso left wing three point dagger.
Scary hours. 😈 @CollinSexton02 | #BeTheFight pic.twitter.com/gpa0NCr8FW
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) January 21, 2021
Larry Nance shut down KD’s left baseline J with 1.2 seconds left to force double super secret overtime before Sexton exploded in the second OT. Youngbull kept backing up and kept swishing threes, going 4-5 from deep and dropping a whopping 15 in the final five minutes. It was the most exciting explosion of basketball talent trying to express itself since LeBron Raymone James suited up for the wine and gold.
By a minute and a half left, Sexton had assumed the “Scary Hours” moniker and single handedly put Steve Nash on the hot seat. But lets not ignore the the contributions of Collin’s teammates. With seven Cavs in double figures and major contributions from new Cavs Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince, this was a total team effort with Sexton playing the role of ace closer. Eye popping lines like Cedi’s 25/7/7, Larry Nance Jr’s 15/8/5 with four steals, and Prince’s 17/7/4 and +20 were the norm for a Cavs team that isn’t fully healthy yet, and suddenly looks electric. Hell, Javale McGee didn’t even play in this game. I can’t wait to see the next one when Garland and Windler are back.
Tom and Nate hopped in the booth to instapod and gush over what we just saw: the best performance in the best game by a Cav since the James’ trip to La La land. We explored the meaning of “Scary Hours” like two Dads would do and dreamed about whether the Cavs should cash some chips in to chase a playoff spot this season.
listen below, download the full mp3 audio file, or check us out on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn, and Spotify.
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68699635/1230702744.0.jpg "Live Thread: Cavs vs. Nets (#Let’sPlayTwo)")
Live Thread is UP! Joining y’all from Eastern Europe for this one!
THE HERCULOIDS WILL ALWAYS HAVE A PART IN MY “CAVS HEART ” —THANKS NATE FOR ALLOWING THEM TO SURFACE AGAIN —–DURANT OUT / NOT A DEEP BENCH / RUN THE ‘F ” OUT OF THEM —IS GARLAND / WINDLER SUITING UP FOR US
I will say I can’t help but be disappointed by the KJP trade. I would have liked to see something creative at least, like getting a 2025 2nd round pick top 55 protected but the protections drop off if KJP plays X, Y or Z amounts of mins without being released by then.
This is a fun walk down amnesia lane. The day the Herculoids were born.
Would have never in a million years remembered that was the result of trading Jon Leuer.
I think we have a chance tonight with KD out. Got at KI’s defense. Push the pace at portly Harden. Don’t foul him. Stick someone on Harris. Make Green/Harden make 3s to beat us.
Durant is out for the game tonight. BRK still has the top talent for the game but they are going to have to fill Druant’s mins with TLC/Bruce Brown or something. Perry got absolutely smashed (blocked 3 times on 8 FGAs I think and -11) in his 10 mins. In the 2 games they won with Harden w/o Kyrie Durant averaged 36/7/5 on high efficiency. Cavs have a real chance to steal 2 here.
Oh, and Durant was more or less holding their D together, in 650 possessions without Durant they had a 114.1 Drtg, and in 300 without Durant/Allen its 115.9 (and just for fun in the 140 without Durant/Levert/Allen its 123.9).
Durant’s clearly their best player and playing at an MVP level.
Drummond + Allen + all the bigs should feast tonight. Who can rebound for them besides Deandre Jordan?
R.I.P. “HAMMERIN ” HANK AARON —-AN EVEN BETTER PERSON THAN HE WAS A PLAYER WHO HAD TO UNDERGO MUCH RACISM / HATE MAIL / DEATH THREATS AS HE PURSUED THE BABE’S HOME RUN RECORD ……
Yep. Aaron is certainly a top 5 OF of all-time. And top 2 RF (Ruth). The others being Mays, Cobb, and Ted Williams. I do not count Bonds as was roided out. Could be some Negro League guys deserving (Cool Papa Bell?) but I do not have the knowledge to say whom.
Plus add in all the racism he had to battle, the class he carried himself with, and the era he played in, and one can make a good argument he is the GOAT.
He’s not just their best player, they also don’t have anyone who can fill the role. Harden can run the offense especially with Kyrie but they have no defender even close to Durant who can guard 3-5, being able to help on Drummond and also stay in front of Sexton on a switch. I know its obvious to say Durant is one of a kind, but for BRK they can’t even cobble together a fascimile on D and with the Cavs heavy movement style they should be able to hunt Kyrie or expose Harden’s energy saving tendencies. They can’t really… Read more »
HOPEFULLY KPJ GETS THE HELP HE NEEDS / HAS A NICE NBA CAREER / CAVS DID THE RIGHT THING —–REALIZE WE WERE ALL “OOOZING ” OVER HIS POTENTIAL BUT THE “OUSIDE ” NOISE JUST COULDN’T BE TOLERATED WITH WHAT THE CAVS ARE TRYING TO CREATE HERE
Quick question: When was the last time a CtB podcap had more than 100 comments?
I sense some excitement in the base.
Rewatching the 2nd overtime now and just giggling like an idiot after the barrage. Let’s hope there’s more fun ones to come.
I giggle every time I think about it. It’s just outrageous. It’s probably unrealistic to hope this becomes a thing, right? I mean, the first time Steph went ballistic they probably thought the same thing.
The Cleveland sports fan in me would never dare to dream (at least out loud). But screw it, let’s hope there’s another gear coming.
While we are all bummed at KPJ flaming out here and the loss of that potential, let us not go too far overboard. Stats dive:
Play/Yr: MPG/PPG/RPG/APG, TS%/2/3/FT%
KPJ/20: 23.2/10/3.2/2.2, 53.3/50.6/33.5/72.3
Sex/21: 37.4/27/2.4/3.7, 62.2/54.5/50/77.3
DG/21: 35.8/17.2/3.3/6.3, 56/44.6/46.9/88.9
With what Sexland are giving us so far, there is no way KPJ was a starter. No way. And with his work habits, Sexland level leaps were not gonna happen. Loss of defensive ability is the main loss. But Sexland is waaay better offensively. Particularly the shooting.
KJPs loss is far more significant than you are making it out to be. Even if things work out really well for the Cavs and Allen/Nance/Okoro/SexLand end up a high quality starting 5 there is only one guy in that group who profiles as a potentially strong 2 way player and he is the youngest and least certain. Losing KJP’s potential, even just as a trade piece is a loss, its that much easier with a young guard with potential to swing a trade for Beal or Kat if they become available than without him. BRK probably doesn’t land Harden… Read more »
Disagree. LNJ and Allen are positive 2 way players right now. Okoro projects as one. Sexland are both, ever so slightly, in positive territory in DPM (BBREF) at the moment. On an otherwise good defensive team, both, playing largely together, are still defensively neutral. Now, Porter was a slightly positive defensive player on last year’s defense, so there is a loss there. But comparing Porter to Sexland on D is the wrong comparison. KPJ was not going to start. Not this year. Compare his D to Prince, Cedi, Windler, and Dotson. Between those 4 and Okoro, his role will get… Read more »
Calling these guys 2 way players is stretching the definition to a non useful point. Prince can make threes and defend, 2 way player? If you have Nance+Allen then you need a high end on ball scorer/distributor to make a high quality offense. 5 guys with their offensive skill sets on the team and you have a bottom 5 offense. Likewise with Sexton’s D, he needs Nance/Drummond level defenders on his team to make his D not hold the team back. It’s good that his defense has improved to the point where it doesn’t actively drag down good defenders but… Read more »
Larry Nance Jr gets some love from Lowe and is #2 on his 10 Things list. Clarkson also gets a shout for his play with the Jazz.
Lowe also notes that the Cavs may have something cooking with Sexland, Okoro, and Allen.
A tad off on his LNJ take in one area. He says he hopes the Cavs don’t trade him at the deadline. IDK where national pundits got this idea from, but there is zero chance of that.
https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/30754447/ten-nba-things-like-including-nikola-jokic-dunks
Rematch tonight – should be another fun one! Cavs also look to be getting back Garland and Windler. I imagine Windler will get maybe 10-12 minutes if that. Garland might get typical starter minutes unless he looks rusted and not providing much. With that said, I imagine JB will stick with same corps of guys as last game and input Garland and Windler to provide more rest and see what happens. If Nets end up winning, so be it, they are much better than we are and should beat us. If we win again, even in extra time, maybe the… Read more »
We need to find a team that has a glut of PGs and is thin at C. Ideal McGee trade partner.
Is there a team that fits that bill? Serious question.
IDK. Atlanta & Boston have 4 PG types but also 3/4 Cs. Dallas has Luka/Burke/Brunson/Tyrell Terry at PG and WCS/Boban at C.
Wonder if we could land Burke/Brunson.
Washington has Westbrook, Ish Smith and Neto with Beal of course handling a lot of the distribution as well, and are thin at C. Neto would be a nice backup PG.
Also Washington has basically one C and a glut of guards. I don’t know if the Cavs are interested in Satoransky’s contract but he can pass/shoot/defend. Was a good rotation piece for Washington but hasn’t worked out in Chi.
Opps, meant Chicago.
Was it me or did he always seem to kill us when he was with the Wiz?
Washington just signed Len which makes a lot more sense for them than giving up an asset for McGee. Portland maybe with Nurkic out?
Short article. Cavs can sign a backup PG at the right price.
https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2021/01/cleveland-cavaliers-agree-to-trade-kevin-porter-jr-to-houston-rockets-for-future-second-round-pick.html
they need one for sure, esp given the uncertainty surrounding Delly.
At least a positive sign…something to show he’s alive:
nice…. hope he’s on the road to 100% health!
SHam Bomb
So we get Gordon?
future 2nd round pick
Top 55 protected. Likely never will convey.
yup, but they apparently cleared the cap and a roster spot they weren’t using so it’s a win.
Protected 2nd round pick…lol…
Either a great deal for Houston, or nothing. All up to KPJ.
Hope he figures things out with them.
Article on the cavs defense.
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/1/18/22236590/nba-defense-lakers-cavaliers-mavericks
One more point on Okoro. Kid’s played 9 games. 9: a portion without a point guard or two guard. Zero summer league, two week training camp.
He’s been amazing. Exactly the kind of player the Cavs have needed for seemingly forever. You put him on Harden, or whoever, and get on with your life.
Yup. He fouled out, but gloriously for the cause.
Worthwhile pod here with Fedor. Talked a little about KPJ, amongst other topics.
https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2021/01/collin-sextons-incredible-night-cavaliers-move-on-from-kevin-porter-jr-and-welcome-jarrett-allen-and-taurean-prince-wine-and-gold-talk-podcast.html
This is really good.
good stuff, kind of driving home what I’ve been talking about as far as using his playmaking skills on the offensive end.
Also fun fact, was told by a Sixers fan in my NBA chat when talking about draft classes that Nance has a higher VORP and Win Shares than Devin Booker!!!! Real fans know how good Nance is.
THE KID HAS TO PLAY IN ORDER TO GROW / GET BETTER
ON ICE —SMALL SAMPLE SIZE —WAS INJURED —HARDLY ANY PRESEASON —-KNEW HIS OFFENSE WASN’T GOING TO BE HIS STRONG SUIT —-HASN’T REALLY PLAYED WITH A FULL ROSTER OF HEALTHY PLAYERS YET —HAS HAD SOME DECENT SPURTS ON OFFENSE / HIS CONFIDENCE / GAME CAN ONLY GROW —ONE THING HE DOES BRING EVERY NIGHT / EVERY PLAY IS ALL OUT HUSTLE / TOUGH “D” —-AS A 19 YEAR OLD ROOKIE HAS NORMALLY GAURDED THE TOP OFFENSIVE PLAYER / HAS HELD HIS OWN AGAINST THE BEST —I LOVE THE KID —-HELP ME OUT MIKEO
THE BERNIE MEME IS GOING VIRAL —I DID A “CLF ” : – )
THAT’S RIGHT NOMAD!!!
LMFAOOOOOO WOW!!!!
LMFAOOOo that was a great tweet…. did numbers too!
LMFAOOOO odds on Sexton’s MIP futures cut in half after last night!!! LMFAOOOOOOO
Re-examining the teams that might trade for Andre, three stick out Toronto- Lowry is 35, and Siakam/FVV are 26, OG 23. Andre fits age wise, fills a major roster hole at C and the Raptors have never show the ability to land FAs. Charlotte- Zeller and BB are FAs at the end of this year and neither is very good. They are playing reasonably well, could use a C and aren’t a FA destination. However they could just go with cap space if they wanted Andre and do what they did with Hayward and overpay to get him. That would… Read more »
Raps are not trading Lowry for Drummond. Dallas, Charlotte, Sacramento can. Portland just seems tough. I’d put NY, Chicago, Miami, in dark horse list, and I proposed moving him to OKC for George Hill too. Forgot he had some friction with Sexton though.
Chocago is running the Carter/Markkanen experiment still. Miami has Bam, NY is just getting somewhere with Robinson. Dallas has a top 10 D, their offense just falls apart when Luka sits.
As to the vociferous discussion below, I’d say that Okoro’s stats are heavily skewed due to small sample size and some of the abysmal lineups he’s played in offensively. I don’t see him as nearly that bad.
What do you see that is good?
Good: Decisiveness with the ball, willingness to make easy swing pass. Little wasted action, pounding the rock. Very good at attacking closeouts on short dribble drives. Runs the floor and finishes in transition well. Decent catch and shoot footwork/off ball movement. Very good cutter, Esp on reverse cuts. Good at making eye contact w/passer and anticipating pass. Finishes well through contact. Bad: Finishing from post position/catching flat footed on a curl/cut. Needs a pump fake, counters, and or quick/decisive move. Also struggles when defense converges in these situations. Fails to anticipate next pass (may be due to offense). Shooting is… Read more »
As a long term prospect I agree, he looks fine, but as a part of a rotation right now he is so uninvolved that it makes life harder for whatever unit he is out there with.
true, and that’s the most probable outcome I’d guess, and don’t have a problem with it either given Okoro’s defense anyway.
So, as of tonight:
Garland, Sexton, Okoro, LNJ, Drummond.
Dotson, Windler, Osman, Prince, Allen.
Wade, McGee; + the 2 ways.
Another PF (Love) and a pure point (Delly) would really round things out nicely.
I wonder if we cut KPJ if there are no takers. Fultz seemed hopeless in Philly but was fine before getting hurt this year. Until we need that roster spot, why not hold out hope? Maybe it is a biochemical issue.
that’s a really nice 10 there finally…. especially if Windler can hit the ground running and Dotson plays more like he did last night.
The early reports were that they will either trade him or cut him outright. I agree with them on that completely. You start to lose any credibility or accountability throughout the team if you tolerate make exceptions for players who pull that crap. He is not at the level where it is worth that risk. On a side note, never want to pile on. I also agree with the Cavs’ statements, hope he overcomes his issues and has a bright future at some point.
I don’t see why they actually would cut him. They don’t currently need the roster spot and don’t save any money. They can say ‘stay away from the team’ and if he decides to take ownership of his behavior and lay out how he will change it then the Cavs can decide (with cooler heads) if he is worth another shot.
Yeah the contract size (still first round albeit late) and guaranteed money probably precludes outright cutting him.
One thing I should say to Bacon’s credit, Drummond’s best play last night BY FAR was the pick and roll… but I just saw Chris Fedor and Jason Lloyd report that Drummond doesn’t like to play that way… damn shame, because it’s another way to get good offense from Drummond beside the offensive rebound (or his passing).
sorry not Jason Lloyd it was Terry Pluto.
https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2021/01/what-im-hearing-about-the-cavaliers-latest-trade-terry-pluto.html
here’s the Fedor article: https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2021/01/how-likely-are-cleveland-cavaliers-to-trade-andre-drummond-before-deadline-hey-chris.html
Cavs trading Drummond is really tricky. Portland can’t match salaries without shipping out CJ or trading 3:1 including Nurkic. Boston basically can’t make the trade unless Drummond fits in the TPE and the numbers I saw showed he didn’t. Washington likewise has to trade Westbrook, Brooklyn has to trade Kyie. The most realistic team is Toronto but they would have to make the easy intellectual move but difficult emotional move of trading Lowry.
100% agree… gotta figure we’re riding him out and seeing if we can coach him up and optimizing his offensive efficiency… i think that’s the best outcome for him and the team.
That would be aggravating. Though I wonder if it is because he doesn’t think he’ll get the ball on the roll consistently. Cedi actually found him and Allen a few times and it led to easy buckets. Feel like he rolled in Detroit a fair amount.
I think it’s just an ego thing and lack of self-awareness/BBIQ about his own game.
But you’re probably correct about Detroit, half the usage and 6x more winning impact according to BPM.
I get the impression that the PnR is damn tiring for a guy like Drummond. He’s big and generally guarded by guys who weigh less than him so in terms of effort expended him screening and rolling takes more work for him vs his opponent than a post up where his defender takes the weight.
yup, also he’s taking a ton of punishment at the rim one would figure, and he clearly doesn’t like it all that much (not that I blame him!!!!)
NOT ATTEMPTING TO BE A SMART ASS HERE—- ( BUT OVER THE YEARS I HAVE BEEN QUITE SKILLED AT THIS )–JUST WONDERING IF BEN (WERTH ) HAS CHANGED JUST ALITTLE ON HIS OPINION OF SEXTON –HE HAS NEVER BEEN A BIG FAN OF HIS –LET US KNOW BEN —–HOPE THE EXCITEMENT OF LAST NIGHTS GAME DOESN’T GET “TRASHED ” FRIDAY NIGHT BY US LAYING AN EGG/ GET BLOWN OUT / POTENTIAL IS THERE AS I AM SURE THE NETS— ( ESPECIALLY THE BIG 3 )– WILL BE OUT TO PROVE A POINT / BIG CHALLENGE FOR THESE YOUNG CAVS COME… Read more »
I am looking forward to Friday’s game. The Cavs have a few things going for them, they had 5 days off going into yesterday and should get Garland/Windler back if they need some fresh legs. Brooklyn will be playing its 4th game in 6 days with a thin roster and coming off a double OT game, and Durant and Harden are averaging 42 and 43 mpg over their last 3 games. This would be a classic steal game for the underdog if they hadn’t just stolen one. On the other hand the Nets just have the talent edge, the Cavs… Read more »
Me too–most vets don’t like getting upstaged like that. I would settle for what happened last night–compete, find ways of putting together winning lineups, play five-man defense, and have some fun.
If Windler and Garland are back, who loses minutes? Dotson?
Dotson is the obvious answer, but Okoro has been their worst player by a large margin (of guys getting mins) statistically. This isn’t a surprise, he is a rookie being asked to guard multiple positions, lacking a PG most games and eating a ton of mins. The Cavs are actually +1.8 without Okoro on the floor so far this season which would put them 6th in the east ahead of Boston by net rating and ahead of Indy/ATL if you used bballrefs simple rating adjustment. Prince alleviates a bit of their size problem without Okoro as a defender, and he… Read more »
I’d like to see this option explored, and I think there’s a legit question about starting Cedi over Okoro, but Okoro’s defense is still better than Cedi’s statistically it appears… I gotta figure JB’s mentality is worry about defense first, offense later LMFAOOO
Cavs are 101.8 drtg with Okoro sitting and 111 with him on court. Cedi’s raw on/off d metrics are much better than that. Interestingly Garland and Exum have the best defensive and overall ratings for the team, probably because their health represents the overall team health to a major extent.
My bad, I was referring to DPIPM… they have Okoro @ #216 (-0.01 DPIPM) and Cedi @ #359 (-0.48)…. so there’s a certainly a level up that Okoro is defensively than Cedi according to those numbers. But Okoro’s OPIPM is one of the worst in NBA. But I like those numbers you pulled, because it reinforces my belief that there still is room to grow for this team… and that there’s a reason to experiment with Cedi and Okoro given the data at this point. PIPM is suggesting that we can get a lot more out of the offense with… Read more »
I haven’t looked into PIPM or DIPM yet in how its constructed, but if it is similar to DRPM then it will have a flaw when it comes to players who play next to young guys. RPM uses place holders for assuming how good/bad young players are until they have enough data, and so when a young guy goes from terrible to passable RPM often ends up assuming that he went from terrible to less terrible and then credits the jump up to teammate’s play. Garland is probably doing that so far, he was one of the worst defenders last… Read more »
Jacob Goldstein is the creator and he works for the Wizards I think? he has a whole website explaining methodology… also it’s great website that aggregates a number of the impact metrics.
I think wrt to DG’s defense, DPIPM has been on the money consistently identifying DG as a better defender than people think, and a better defender than Sexton has been generally.
DG’s negative impact has mainly been more acute on the offensive end, and that’s especially true because that’s where guards impact winning more as a general rule.
Yeah I could see them sitting one of the big 3 as DNP-rest.
PIPM data including last night’s game: Sexton now a top 50 player (ranked #49), ranked #42 in OPIPM (+2.24). Allen ranked just ahead of Sexton at #41 (+2.41 PIPM) Nance @ #52, and ranked #7 in the NBA in DPIPM (+2.04) Drummond @ #133 in PIPM (+0.04)… top 20 in DPIPM, and probably our worse player on the team in offensive impact…. ranked in the 400s behind Dean Wade and Thon Maker. Really can’t overstate how bad Drummond is on the offensive end when it comes to team success. Javale McGee, Dotson, and Okoro only ones to rank worse in… Read more »
You really can overstate how detrimental Drummond is, since you are doing it. We have way more data on Drummond than 14 games where the average lineup for the Cavs has been down 2.2 starters from their desired beginning of the season starting lineup. Drummond has been a roughly neutral to moderately negative offensive player (position ally adjusted) for his career. Stats like PIPM are not useful for specific circumstances, situations where players are forced into roles they are poorly suited for and small sample sizes are at the top of those lists. To be even more specific- Drummond’s best… Read more »
i think you’re just mad Dre got bench for his offense and Sexton won the game with Nance pick and rolls!!!
LMFAOOOOOO i’m just giving you a hard time.
but on a serious note, seems like you’re completely missing my point “situations where players are forced into roles they are poorly suited for” is precisely why the coaches should’ve put an end to Drummond-centric offense no matter who’s in or out, because the results were disastrous (offensively) no matter how you slice it.
The results are not disastrous because the Cavs managed to maintain a strong defensive rating. Drummond was the only guy on the team capable of generating 20+ Attempts a game without giving anything back defensively. Stick Cedi in that role and his defense will look like a blindfolded Harden, stick Nance in that role and you almost certainly will see his steals plummet. Stick Okoro in that role and the other team will have a dozen extra transition points a game.
i guess you missed the key word (offensively) LMFAOOO
I respectfully disagree on your points about Cedi and Nance.
Then I will offer this and leave it alone- sort by Cedi’s highest usage games last year, the Cavs were 1-8 in his 9 highest with a net rating of -11 per game. For every game where his usage was 20%+ the Cavs were 2-12 with a net rating of -14 per game. In games where Cedi had a usage below 20% the Cavs were 17-32 with a net rating of -7. They were bad last year but they were historically awful when they relied on Osman to be a high volume creator.
???? they’re historically awful with Drummond at high usage??? LMFAOOO what’s your point?
Out of both terrible options, rather see the coaches try something different, and if the last two games were any indication, the move was obviously Cedi/Nance high PnR.
No, the Cavs are not historically awful with high usage Drummond. They have a terrible offense but a good defense and so are bad but not awful, with Cedi we got a terrible D and a terrible O and team ratings that would rival the worst in history over a full season. You can’t act like there is nothing to lose here because the Cavs dropping in defensive rating with Osman/Nance putting in more work offensively is a real risk, with actual examples supporting the point.
I simply disagree with your desire to conflate offensive and defensive performance here… I’m stricly talking about the offense and offensive strategy exclusively.
It’s fine if you disagreee with me, but I don’t believe there’s any evidence you’re presenting that convinces me the defense would suffer at the hands of Cedi and Nance’s increasing their usage on offense.
I’ve provided evidence that the team results are far far worse with Cedi handling the ball more, I don’t really care if its offensive or defensive you haven’t addressed this in any way.
I disagree, and I guess we’ll leave it at that! LMFAOO
Boy those ratings shift way too much per game at this point for me to put much stock in them for the season as a whole. I think the RPM, BPMs, and this PIPM have issues, especially this early in a season. RPM isn’t even usually posted until like a quarter of the season is over.
then feel free to ignore, i like seeing the changes in data from game to game.
and further, they really haven’t changed all that much we have a top 4 (Sexton, Drummond, Nance, Garland) (top 5 including Allen) then everybody else and/or incompletes due to injury.
Fair enough. IMO they seem to need fairly large sample sizes. If I remember correctly RAPM/RPM was originally meant to be most appropriate for trends that minimally in a season long scale and more appropriately a couple seasons.
stat nerds i talk to say 10-12 games is statistically significant sample…. almost all our guys are approaching that threshold.
oh yeah, agree that longer samples are even better, but not necessary to draw conclusions IMO.
Really happy about JB’s adjustment on offense to feed Sexton late… AC kept complaining on the telecast that the passing stopped, but the only way the Cavs were going to win that game was Sexton taking 30 shots.
JB’s comment about adjusting on offense to make Sexton the focal point is the type of adjustment I’ve wanted to see since the offense has crapped out after the first 3 games of year.
The Cavs had a shot to win in regulation and Sexton dribbled the ball off his foot right before the ref decided that a forearm shiver to the face should be overturned, and before that Nance split a pair of FTs then missed an open 3, and the Cavs forced 2nd OT with Sexton missing his first 3 shots in the first OT, and prior to Sexton grabbing Osman’s miss and laying it up he was 1-5 in OT#1 and it was the Cavs D that kept them in it. Not taking anything away from Sexton’s amazing end to OT1… Read more »
I felt the same as AC–at first. However, I am surprised AC didn’t realize this is the NBA; when a player passes the “heat check,” let the Young Bull do his thing. There is something awe-inspiring about a third-year player just entering the league’s All-Star radar crushing it against two future Hall of Famers or three elite-level scorers or the next BIG 3 (choose your perception). I was curious about the play where Sexton motioned Cedi for a pick, and Cedi just stood there. Did Cedi not see him, did he ignore him our of annoyance, or because he thought… Read more »
I don’t recall the specific play, but it could’ve been matchup/switch based improvisation… they were matchup hunting usually with Nance’s defender.
Sexton’s efficiency is going to tank if he is taking 25-30 shots in regulation. 2OT is one thing and he was unsustainably hot. Hotter than a supernova. Hotter than I have seen anyone in some time. Him having 25+ fga per game will lead to diminishing returns very quickly. Too predictable. Teams will key in very quickly and he isn’t the playmaker to make them pay consistently enough to do damage.
no where did i ever say that Sexton should be taking 30 shots on the regular, i clearly said THIS particular game.
I must have misread a comment you wrote last night.
definitely, was only referring to last night’s game.
Ok. I found it to make sure I wasn’t losing my mind. You had said after the game before the game you had wanted Sexton to take 30 shots and Cedi 20. Which in my mind is too many shots in regulation, and took it to mean as a normal thing going forward.
yup, and guess what, they did that and they beat a team expected to compete for a championship!!!
If Sexton shoots like that every game, then he should take darn near every shot….
you’re speaking my language now brother!!! LMFAOOOOOOO
Well if he shoots like that from three every game on that number of attempts then he is a borderline top 5 player in the nba right now. So yeah. But obviously that is probably unsustainable. But hey I’d love for that to be true.
at least he’s up to nearly 20FGAs a game now… that’s probably the ideal.
and he’s putting up some ridiculous numbers on pull-up shots, which is apparently a good indicator of being a elite scorer.
Bacon made the Beal comparison, and if Sexton does that, he’s a top 5 offensive player… and if he does that this year???? we’re witnessing something that’s unprecedented.
His trajectory has been incredible. Compared to what he was his rookie year, unbelievable. I am having trouble remembering a guy with a similar vertical climb as far as his improvement. 20 FGA is appropriate as long as he continues to be efficient and keep his tovs minimal. He definitely is a three level scorer now. I don’t think his 3pt % is going to drop a ton, unless he starts taking a ton more treys like 8-9 per game. I don’t expect him to shoot 50% on 5 attempts per game but I could see 40-45% if he doesn’t… Read more »
yup, saw FTS blog guys basically say he should take more pull up 3s, less pull up 2s, and his efficiency should increase further… which then starts to put Sexton in that top 5 offensive player conversation IMO…. slightly better passing too I think is the only other critique I have… but that’s a nitpick when his defense has finally come around to neutral.
The guys at FTS are probably wrong about this, and have been for years. Sexton doesn’t take a whole lot of pull up 2s that can be converted into 3s, a lot of those 2s are off his ball handling/probing work similar to a lot of Kyrie’s long 2s. They are a concession from the D where they are willing to let him take a long 2 and instead contest the paint and 3 pt line. The pull up/step back 3 is a weapon that (outside of guys like Curry who play on god mode from behind the arc) allows… Read more »
It’s not unprecedented, but the precedents are first ballot hall of farmers like Iverson. Also I don’t think Beal is a top 5 talent, he is like the 5-12 range who is in a perfect stat stuffing situation. I don’t mean that as an insult, being #8 in the league is a hell of a compliment but top 5 guys are guys like Harden who drag a variety of teams to top tier status year after year.
I compared him to AI lite or lite lite below, but not his trajectory. AI came in as a great player. His first season was all star caliber. Sexton’s first season was pretty terrible. Sexton’s trajectory is pretty rare. Maybe not unprecedented as CLF said, but rare. Because he was bad in nearly every aspect. He scored an ok amount for a rookie but was pretty inefficient and a huge negative on the court for the most part. Last year he was probably net neutral. This year is a whole different story. If you could graph winning impact from rookie… Read more »
It’s hard, very few guards actually come out and play at his age. Even AI was 6-7 months older as a rookie and was the #1 pick. Guys like Dame/Curry stayed in college for a few years or you have obvious top talents like Kylie/AI who go at the top of the draft. Very few young guards go to teams that need them to play right away, DDR was 20 as a rookie, the 9th pick in the draft and only played 21 mpg that season. McCollum was 22, the 10th overall pick and didn’t crack 20mpg or the starting… Read more »
Dare I say, unprecedented??? LMFAOOOOOOOOO
There definitely are guys who probably improved as much from year one to year three. LBJ comes to mind, but the difference is he was very impactful as a rookie as far as wins. But then in year three he became the best player in the league. That was a huge jump even though he started out strong as far as overall impact. The difficulty comes with finding someone so bad who suddenly in year 3 becomes such a positive impact. Part of that is what we’ve covered which was his outsized role that rookie season for someone who was… Read more »
So does Windler even get back into the rotation in the near term? If we add Garland into last night’s rotation that is 9, and it is fairly packed. Prince basically filled in for all of Nance’s rest plus both OTs for Okoro. Allen/Drummond eat all the C mins. Just looking at regulation mins the Cavs rotation last night was Sexton 28 Osman 40 Nance 35 Okoro 38 Drummond 25 Prince 26 Allen 21 Dotson 24. Obviously Osman and Okoro are obvious starting points for trimming but Allen is the more natural replacement position wise, plus if Garland goes back… Read more »
I think it’ll be matchup dependent, JB just talked last night about experimenting more with small ball lineups because of the arrival of Prince.
Sexton’s trajectory is just beautiful, just every statistical aspect of his game except rebounding is better so far this year. His scoring is going to come back down a bit when he stops hitting 50%(!) from 3, but that will still be up as long as it doesn’t crater. Steal and block rates up, assist rate up, and TO rate is way down. He has dropped a full TO per 100 from last year with the same usage and an extra half assist. Dropping a TO is worth ~1.3 points as you get an extra shot and deny a fast… Read more »
Beal would be an extremely awesome outcome for Sexton, Beal’s ranked top 5 in the NBA this year in OPIPM…. we’d have a legitimate elite NBA scorer.
Wish i could have been in on this one, but i had to watch this one on replay.
Welcome back Kyrie! Lol
JB’S POST GAME INTERVIEWS ARE SO GOOD —PROBABLY THE BEST FROM A CAVS COACH IN A LONG TIME —KNOWS THE GAME BUT EVEN MORE IMPORTANT KNOWS HIS PLAYERS / HOW TO COACH THEM / HIS ROTATIONS ARE USUALLY DEAD ON ALSO—-THE ZONE COULD BECOME EVEN MORE LETHAL WITH ALLEN AND HIS WING SPAN PROTECTING THE PAINT / BASELINE / BASKET AND LNJ ‘S INSTINCTIVE DEFENSIVE PRESENCE
WOW JUST GOT DONE WATCHING THE REPLAY—STILL GOT ME EXCITED —–IS THERE A CONCERN THAT DRE MIGHT BE UPSET NOT PLAYING DURING CRUNCH TIME / GIVING MINUTES TO ALLEN/ WATCHED HIM WHEN COLLIN MADE THE TYING 3 —EVERYONE ALL THE BENCH WAS JUMPING / EXCITED / DRE SEEMED EMOTIONLESS—MAYBE I AM READING MORE INTO IT THAN I SHOULD —-FROM ALL ACCOUNTS DRE HAS BEEN HIGH CALIBER PERSON / LOCKERROOM TEAMMMATE
I saw that on the bench. Especially noticeable in the shot where love is going nuts and Garland jumps on his back. He might pout, but the same thing happened in ATL and he seemed better in the few games after that. So hopefully that happens again.
Great part about this was the Nets ‘Big 3’ combined for 96 points, which is insanely good and yet the Cavs still won by double digits.
Not sure if Sexton has those ‘NBA Jam ball-on-fire’ games all the time, but it was fantastic to see.
Hilarious to see some of the excuses for the Nets how they ‘need time’. Those were missing when the Nets defeated the Bucks two nights ago.
Cavs finally get a few guys back and the new guys have stepped in admirably. Should get Garland and Windler back Friday. GO CAVS!!!
yup big 3 played awesome and they were still able to overcome it…. it was an all around high level basketball game.
Superb pod from wire to wire! Loved the conclusion from Nate, the Sexton notes and the long view from/to the LeBron years.
Thanks, Adam!
Good Fedor article on Sexton. After that game, he deserves all of it.
https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/2021/01/collin-sexton-changing-perceptions-becoming-cornerstone-of-cleveland-cavaliers-rebuild-hes-not-a-regular-nba-player.html
Do we name this the Sexton-coming-out game?
Seems to me, yes. At least nationally.
Yes, the Nets thought they were going to win. They were swaggering back onto the floor at some point in the first OT, Jo Harris had a relaxed joke with a couple of his team. Looked smug AF.
His demeanour changed dramatically in the 2nd OT. LMFAO.
John Wall with a j is a not an apt comparison. Wall is and always was a true point and always had true vision and playmaking dating back to college. Sexton is not that guy as far as vision and mentality/position and will never be. But he will be a better player than Wall ever was because he is such a better and more efficient scorer than John Wall ever was. In a different universe as far as that is concerned. Wall was/is Russ Westbrook lite or lite lite even though Westbrook was maybe never a true point as far… Read more »
Okoro fouled out. That was not a sub.
Well technically we’re both right. :) but good catch. Glad it happened. Okoro was struggling a bit.
I believe Sexton missed 3 FTs in that span. Split a pair + an 0-2 trip.
Haven’t listened yet but let’s also maybe throw some love to JB Bickerstaff for the defense. That zone…boy they used a lot of it tonight and with variations on it including some matchup zones, traps even of the full court variety. He probably will deserve coach of the year if the cavs finish 500 for one reason and one reason alone. The defense. Zone is so perfect for larry nance. Totally unlocks him. In many ways Dre usually fits well in it due to his hands as well. Does it breakdown via shooting or getting the ball middle or baseline?… Read more »
This meme is maybe the funniest meme I have ever seen and I have no idea why. I am sure someone has probably used it here before, maybe EG. But seriously I am laughing as I post this. I think it’s the face. Burning everything down with that Elmo face!