5 on 5: 2022 Tipoff! (Plus Pod 279: Over/Under NOAH’s Rainbow!)

[Editor’s Note: We’ve got an olive branch for you all. We got a few of the old gang back together for a season tipoff 5-on-5! And (bonus) if you get all the way through to the end, there’s a podcast in it for you! (Or just scroll down and fire it off). Enjoy!]

1. Who starts at the three? Ideally and in reality?

Ben Werth: I would be surprised if we have different answers on this one. Dean Wade is the obvious choice on who should be starting. Wade is a mobile defender with size that could help mitigate the backcourt’s limitations. People shouldn’t forget the straight work he put in against Kevin Durant last season. Offensively, he is the only true floor-spacing option the Cavs have for that slot.

And yet, Caris LeVert will almost assuredly get the first crack. And you know what, I think J.B. might be right on this one. LeVert isn’t better than Okoro or Wade for the starting unit. BUT having him in the starting lineup prevents him from playing hero ball as the unquestioned leader of the bench mob. If he’s going to be in the rotation, the best way to prevent Caris from LeVerting the Cavs into losses is by forcing him into role player mode. Trading him would be my preference.

Chris Francis: The reality is Caris LeVert should start at the three. He won the job fair and square with a rock solid preseason, and he should certainly be the guy in that closing lineup if/when the playoffs come around because of his ability to shoot off the dribble and make passes against a scrambling/collapsed defense. Ideally, it’d be great to try and supplement that position later in the season with a trade especially if there’s a tanking frenzy that grips the NBA. Otherwise, it’d be nice if Dean Wade grows into the role as an ideal 3 and D role player because his size, strength, and rebounding ability. I haven’t mentioned Okoro not because I don’t think he’s worthy, but because I see his role changing into the 2-guard role to unlock his offense this season.

Tom Pestak: Ideally?  Whoever is going to give the Cavs the most upside in the playoffs.  Last year the Cavs needed scoring out of the SF spot (and every non Garland spot) This year they should get enough offensive punch from the backcourt.  I’ll throw an uninformed take out that Okoro still has the most room to elevate his baseline.  We know Cedi, Wade, and LeVert’s ceiling.  Okoro being 21 – he might still have another leap in his future.  I say might, because we all know who won the Me vs Cols714 debate on “all young players improve”.  COLS!  It’s SAFE TO COME BACK WITH YOUR TAKES.  I need to know who the “FRAUDS” are!  In reality, I’d say the guy that makes more dough than Cedi, Wade, and Osman combined -> Supremely nice guy, Caris LeVert.  No one I’d rather see succeed than LeVert.  I hope he can capitalize on the attention paid the backcourt and increase his shooting efficiency.

EvilGenius: It’s a weird answer… but honestly it should be “it depends on who the opposing starting three is.” While consistency is usually a fairly reliable key to success in the NBA, the Cavs’ situation at the three could really be viewed as an opportunity rather than a detriment. Need more defense? Paging Okoro. More scoring and facilitating? Get the warm ups off Caris. More size? Time for Wade to show why he got paid. Instant floor spacing? Love the occasional spot start. Block party? Mama… D is always a Key-te (okay groan… but you get what I’m sayin). I guess ideally I just dug the tall lineups to start the season last year (which now other teams are predictably ape-ing), so if pressured my answer would be Wade or Diakite. In reality, probably LeVert gets first crack and is quickly replaced by Okoro about five games in…

Chris Lyden: Ah, the “ideal.” In an ideal world Isaac Okoro, recently featured in a cleveland.com series for his summer work with a shot-coaching robot mounted to the rafters of the Cleveland clinic practice courts, would have impressed upon both robot and human minders that he can not only shoot at a 45 degree ark, but at a better clip than 35%. Alas, the feature made it clear he hasn’t even reached his 45 degree goal quite yet, is still shooting across his face something like 20% of the time, and occasionally forgets his new shot altogether, while helpfully avoiding any mention of actual shooting progress. The world remains less than ideal. We may need to wait another season, or perhaps the rest of our lives, to see an offensive presence to match with Okoro’s formidable defensive skills, yet the idea remains alluring enough to both fans and his coaches that the effort remains.
For now, we’re going to see LeVert at the 3. LeVert has proven himself as a high-level scoring option in the past, although his injury-riddled first season in Cleveland didn’t allow him to feel his way into any sort of fit within the offense. However, I understand the idea of playing your best 5, and LeVert’s size and length give the impression of small forward playability on both ends of the court. I expect JB to pull LeVert early and use him more as a 2/3 off the bench for the majority of actual game minutes as long as the rotation is healthy, and as JB cycles through his typical dozens of lineups early in the season, we may eventually see a change mid-season at the 3 position.

2. What are you most excited to see from the Cavs this year? 

Chris Francis: How the offense grows, especially with the sophomore Evan Mobley and newly acquired Donovan Mitchell getting added to the crew. Fans should be in store for a very fun brand of Cavs basketball this season!

Tom Pestak: I really want to see some blowouts like we saw in December.  I wanna watch some Cavalanches and let AC’s joyous cackles wash over me.  I think the team will be fun, I just hope the curse of expectations doesn’t sap too much joy out of the season.

EvilGenius: The pure, unadulterated joy of a young team that already had an early taste of competitive confidence add another young star who fits (as well as some sneakily wise old head vets) learning to take its game to another level. There will be bumps in the road, growing pains and the inevitable spate of injuries to come, but I can’t think of another iteration of the Cavaliers that was this young, this talented, this unexpected and this much freaking fun to watch play.

Ben Werth: The beginning of Evan Mobley, superstar. In year one, Evan flashed greatness on a regular basis, primarily on the defensive side. Over the second half of the season, his defense regressed a bit as he was forced through injury into being the solitary big. He also tried to take off his training wheels on offense before he was truly ready. That combined to hurt his overall efficiency. I expect Mobley to be up for the challenge in year two.

Chris Lyden: My answer to this question begs the next, so I’m including both together. I’m most excited to see the growth of a new offensive identity. Last year we saw some success from tower city, especially with the timely contributions of Love and Rubio as they both put together excellent campaigns for sixth man of the year, to help with spacing and ball distribution. While many eyes will be trained on the addition of Mitchell from a purely offensive box-score perspective, I see the synergy his play will unlock in the rest of the starters. A Garland-Mitchell back court will find both guards facing a lighter focus from opposing defenses for the first time in their respective careers. The 3 position will include more than Okoro parking himself in the corner with relief from “one amazing game, three bad games” Osman, and LeVert will likely benefit from more floor space both on the perimeter and moving off-ball. Allen will benefit from any opposing team’s efforts to press the point of attack with four competent ball handlers sharing the floor with him, providing a release valve when given enough space in the paint to operate his short range game. Finally, Mobley should be able to offer a little from the perimeter, some guard skills out of the elbow, and a little extra on ball movement to add to his established repertoire in the paint and from the dunker spot.

3. What is the biggest upgrade Mitchell brings to Cleveland? 

Tom Pestak: He gets buckets. Consistently.  I hate to go all 2005 on everyone, but you need guys that can (clears throat) score in double figures consistently to win consistently.  Don’t @ me.  Rather slide into my DMs (Donovon Mitchell stats of course).  He’s played in 386 games (regular and playoffs) and has scored less than 10 points a mere 17 times.  So he scores in double figures over 95% of the time.  He’s scored 20 or more 73% of the time in his career.  Let’s just contrast his point-binning against the rest of the Cavaliers top scorers last season.  See chart below – it’s eye opening.  The Cavs didn’t have a single player other than Garland that scored 20 or more even 30% of the time.  We all enjoyed the Cavs egalitarian offense but they beat a lot of teams because they outplayed them and turned defense into offense.  Not that I’m complaining, but the best teams aren’t going to be defeated that way.  It’s going to take much more scoring consistency especially in the half court to augment what should be another good defensive team.  I hate to make an analogy with Cleveland’s professional baseball team, but all those singles didn’t add up to beat the Yankees dingers.  Similarly, it’s good that the Cavs are deep and play so hard, but they definitely needed at least one more consistent scorer – that’s Mitchell, hands down.

PPG Binning 2021-2022 Reg Season

EvilGenius: A second creator and playmaker to carry the burden in crunch time. It was almost heartbreaking to watch Darius Garland try to carry the wounded Cavs on his ailing back down the stretch last season, and it made you wonder what really might have been minus a couple of bad knees (Ricky’s and Sexton’s). Spida will instantly split the defensive focus away from DG, and will provide an extremely valuable level of shot creation, ball-handling and court vision to help turn this into a very dangerous team late in games.
Ben Werth: Spida can shoot the rock. We have already seen how good of a player Darius Garland is when paired with another lead guard. DG’s minutes with Rubio (and even Rondo) articulated that succinctly. Those cats can’t shoot like Mitchell. Guard/Guard screen action from the Cavalier backcourt is going to be absolutely devastating, both on and off ball. If the defense stays top side on anyone, look for Mobley and Allen to eat. If the they sag to protect, both DG and Spida will toss missiles from Mentor.
Chris Francis: He’s just in another class of shooting guard compared to the departed Collin Sexton, with all due respect the Young Bull. Mitchell’s ability to be a high volume three point shooter, make passes out of the pick and roll, and consistently hit spot up jumpers is going to make a massive difference to the offense. And there’s simply no question Mitchell plays better defense than Sexton, even in spite of Mitchell’s well-documented loafing. Add in the playoff experience, which shows that Mitchell gets better the more pressure there is… and well, you know… he’s the biggest upgrade to this team this offseason outside of Mobley and Garland’s improvements.

4. Where do the Cavs finish in the east and why?

EvilGenius: Realistically, this is a top four team in the East from a pure talent perspective. Only three teams are better on paper… Bucks, Celtics and Philly. Feels like the fade starts in Miami and the Nets will always find a way to self-destruct. It all depends on Mobley’s growth and health. He’s got the potential to become a reasonable facsimile of a young KG this year… and if his apex predator, Superman style roving defense is bolstered by a confident three point shot? Look the hell out. Being cautiously optimistic, I’d say 52-30 for the fourth seed, host and win a playoff series.

Chris Francis: Somewhere between the 4th and 6th seed…. so a playoff lock. The absolute ceiling could be a conference final, but an optimistic/realistic scenario hopefully will be a semifinals appearance.

Chris Lyden: The Cavs will most likely end up finishing Fifth in the East. The bucks, 76ers, and Celtics are easy favorites to top the conference in some order, followed by the second tier of teams: Cleveland, Atlanta, Brooklyn, and Miami. The Cavs will be competing down the stretch in a tight race for the fifth spot with Atlanta and the Nets, with Miami as a bit of a wildcard, largely due to my faith in their coaching. The variance here may be high, especially with the Nets’ erratic recent past, and I look forward to a back half of the season where every game may count.

Tom Pestak: I don’t know why but I can’t shake the feeling that the Cavs are going to underperform a bit relative to all of our fan expectations.  Vegas odds put the O/U at 47.5 (13th best), which, to me, seems like it would be a disappointing season.  So I’ll go with 48 wins.  Why?  I don’t really know.  I think they end up somewhere between 40 and 56 so I’ll just take the average.  The Kevin Love outbursts felt fluky last year. Getting Mitchell and LeVert changes Cleveland’s on-court chemistry significantly in a way that may make them a better post-season team but not necessarily a December Cavalanche team racking up improbable wins.  I hope I’m wrong.  Also, as much as I swooned over Mobley early and often, he did fade as the season went along.  Hopefully he comes back strong.  I’m very cautious about projecting development.  That said, if Mobley or Okoro follow a Garland-esque growth curve, the Cavs will be a top 8 team in the NBA barring significant and sustained injuries.

Ben Werth: Third. The pre-Pandemic Jazz stormed the league in the regular season by having great ball-movement and supreme PnR play with an elite interior defensive force. The Cavs won’t quite be able to match the Jazz’s offense of that season, but their defense should be just as solid. The Cavs play hard and are sneakily deeper than what most pundits believe. This team is built for the regular season. The Playoffs? That all depends on health, and whatever delightful absurdity Mobley bestows upon us.

5. Who on the Cavs is going to surprise us with unexpectedly important contributions?

Chris Lyden: I’m going to go with two relatively spicy takes here, and go with Dean Wade and Raul Neto. I see Wade as having room to grow into his confidence heading into the season, and look forward to seeing what I saw from him in college and with the charge – an athletic small forward with size to bang with 4s and a nose for driving lines. I could see JB using him at both positions to add size and gravity to larger lineups while anchoring the paint with 3 guards and Allen or Mobley at center. I also predict we see really nice three-point shooting from Wade on 2-3 attempts a game, although this is admittedly biased by my various day dreams.
Neto will surprise us not necessarily with an unexpected skill set but with unexpected usage. I could see JB using Neto more like Rubio and less like Rondo as the season goes on, contrary to takes I’ve seen from many esteemed colleagues in the blog-and-pod world, who often muse that he may be a “break glass when needed” option at point. Why over-use Mitchell at point when Garland is sitting? Why flex LeVert out of his comfort zone, or have Mobley or Cedi take the ball up, when you have a perfectly fine Neto on the bench? Sure, you may have to stretch some games to a 9 man rotation, but JB has shown he’ll go there before, and I believe we’ll see him go there again. (Honestly, the more I think, and the more I type, the more I realize that Cedi will end up the odd man out, playing far fewer minutes this season than last).

Tom Pestak: Tough question because last year everyone contributed and the unexpected part was K Love and Rubio.  So if either of them do it again will it be unexpected?  I’m going to go with LeVert just because I think some of us have written him off so I think he has the most potential to surprise.  I hope it’s Okoro finding a groove on offense though because I think his defensive contributions could really be needed in the postseason, but he’s not going to play much if he’s a total liability on offense.

EvilGenius: I could go off the board and pick Three-A-Kite now that he’s thankfully been retained on a two-way deal… but in sticking with the main roster, I’ll say Cedi Osman. But it won’t truly happen until Ricky Rubio returns early next year. Cedi was having real success being set up in advantageous spots on the floor with the Spaniard running the second unit early on last season… and there were flickers of that in the pre-season when DG was doing his best Ricky impression.
Chris Francis: I’m going to go with the biggest surprise of all, DYLAN WINDLER! LET’S GOOOOO
Ben Werth: Wade won’t surprise us, but he could be the talk of the league in the way Joe Harris was a few seasons back. He already got a bit of buzz last season with his previously mentioned defensive prowess against KD. Still, it always felt rather tongue in cheek. This year, he will be a known commodity on a 50 plus win team.

Bonus Question: For purely non-basketball reasons, who’s your favorite current Cavalier and why?

Tom Pestak: I don’t know anything about these guys off the court.  And I don’t mean that in the “who knows what these guys are really like” sense, I mean it in the “I’m not sure I can name a single fact about any of these guys that’s non basketball-related” outside some Kevin Love minutiae.  I met someone who claims to know Caris LeVert’s family and said they were very high character people…and he’s from Ohio so I’ll go with CL.  Also, he hasn’t tweeted since 2020 so he’s clearly a man of great wisdom.

Chris Francis: Caris LeVert: he’s super chill, overcome a lot in life beating the cancer and losing his father as a teenager, seems just like a good, chill dude. And his family is musical, maybe he’s down for a jam session? Did I mention he was chill?
Chris Lyden: I’m going to go with two way player Mamadi Diakite… and yes i’m joking, but also, I’m completely serious- the true double-irony of the hipster pick this most certainly is, by the hipster I most certainly am, doomed to be so from a young age by cultural forces I swear are (mostly) beyond my control. Plus, he looks pretty good!
I came up in my Cavaliers fandom, and my love for basketball, in a golden era of Cavs zines with JJ Hickson on the cover, of feverishly typed treatises on the 15th rostered player, on the looming second-round pick that could turn the franchise around. I always have, and always will, love the Wades and Stevens and Nwabes and Hoods and Feltons of this world, as they are certainly the avatar of my own ego within basketball— I am the Chris Quinn of being a good dad, the Christian Eyenga of writing, the Dante Exum of making you a good breakfast— capable of spurts of excellence, important just because I care and put in the effort, doomed to fail at a higher level than I ever dreamed of possibly reaching.
Ben Werth: Darius Garland is simply a joy. The whole roster seems to be filled with good dudes. Garland’s vibe drives that. He is constantly supportive, seems to have inside jokes with every one of his teammates, and displays a kind of natural fraternal love that drives togetherness and winning. Hero.
EvilGenius:  Sure… save the toughest question for the bonus. It’s like a five way tie for me. There are so many likable dudes on this team… and that’s what makes it so much fun. Gun to my head, I’d probably say Garland because that kid clearly loves the game and loves life in general since he never stops smiling.

[And… Bonus Content! Nate, Chris Francis, and a scribbled cocktail napkin from the the Desk of David Wood, break down the latest development with the Cavs, the NOAH shot analysis system,  Lament the Guardians’ loss, and do over/unders around the NBA. Listen below, download the full audio file, or listen on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, Stitcher, TuneIn, or Spotify.]

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