Live Thread: Cavs @ Suns
2023-01-08Good evening CtB!
The Cavs are in the Valley of the Sun to take on the hospital Phoenix Suns in what is probably a must-win game given how many key Suns are out of the game. Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and former Cav Cam Payne will all be out tonight, which represents nearly all of the Suns’ on ball creation on offense. The Cavs should be able to impose their will on defense, and gets some easy offense created out of their defense.
Tip off is scheduled for 8:00PM Eastern time and will be broadcasted live on Bally Sports Ohio/Great Lakes, Go Cavs!
INJURY REPORTS:
#Cavs Darius Garland WILL PLAY tonight against Phoenix, sources tell @clevelanddotcom. Also, team will be sticking with Isaac Okoro as the starting small forward, sources say.
— Chris Fedor (@ChrisFedor) January 8, 2023
The Suns have, indeed, ruled out Chris Paul for tonight’s game against #Cavs.
— Chris Fedor (@ChrisFedor) January 8, 2023
LT up
hang on one sec, sorry for the Late LT getting it up now
Fedor says Ice starting at SF again.
Sorry Chris, no start for Cedi.
Hopefully he makes a couple 3s and plays some good D, and isn’t too bashful & does more than stand in the corner. If Markkanen starts at the 3, he just shoots over him, though.
Too bad Rubio could not make it back for this one.
JB did say he was “really close.”
With Durant out, you’d think it would impact the Nets, but they have such a cake schedule and seemingly play 1 game a week.
They have Boston coming up. That ain’t easy.
After 4 days off, then they get 3 days off and host the Thunder.
Will be good to see Captain Band Aid, Big Finnish, Young Bull, and Agbaji tonight.
JUST GOT HOME FROM FRIENDS OPENING A NEW MEXICAN RETAURANT —–MARGARITAS WERE ” FLOWING —–MORE MARGARITAS PLEASE SOON FOLLOWED WITH MORE SLEEP PLEASE ” WILL PROBABLY BE A NO SHOW TONIGHT ……ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ—–CATCH REPLAY TOMORROW—-GO CAVS // HAVE A GREAT HOMECOMING SPIDA !!!!
AGBAJI “REVENGE ” GAME TONIGHT :-)
Love 3PT shooting. Before thumb injury: 40.9%. After 32.1%.
I thought he was coming out of it. He had a 5 games stretch of 14/28 recently, culiminating in the 20/9 game his first start. Went for 12/17 in the second start, including 3/9 from deep. Running the 6 game total to 17/39 or 43.5%.
Since? 1/13 in 3 games. IDK if we drained the tank or just a cold streak. Both, methinks.
FWIW, Okoro 3PT shooting.
First 12 games. 0-12 (12 games). 0%.
Next 9, 6/20. 30%. 21 game total: 6/32, 18.75%.
Next 11: 7/26. 26.9%. 32 g total: 13/58, 22.4%.
Last 9: 10/21. 47.6%. 41 g total: 23/79, 29.1%.
Last 20: 17/47, 36.1%.
Last 29: 23/67, 34.3%.
Still low volume, and still low, but trending upward. FWIW, Cedi is 34.9% this year and 34.7% career. Albeit on much higher volume.
That 4/6 moved the needle quite a bit, admittedly. I just thought there might be some folks out there questioning why Ice had been starting lately over Cedi, and this is it.
If he can be 35% or so on higher volume, consistently, he’s the better option with his D. And he could conceivable go higher. Cedi is in year 6, his best 3PT years are Year 3 & Year 1. He’s not there yet, but signs of progress.
Admittedly, this is a powerful counter:
DG-DM-IO-EM-JA. 77+ min. -8.4/100 poss.
DG-DM-CO-EM-JA. 22+ min. +38.4/100 poss.
DG-DM-LS-EM-JA. 152+ min. -3.0/100 poss.
DG-DM-DW-EM-JA. 6+ min. -70.0/100 poss.
Though the sample size is ridiculously small.
You can play them both. And matchup based is smart anyway. Im just glad Ice is finally a willing shooter.
Agbaji had 19 points on 7/7 shooting the other night.
He also went 0-2 in 20m last game. Be interesting to see him vs the Cavs.
BUCKEYES SHOULD HAVE BEEN NATIONAL CHAMPIONS LAST NIGHT 🤬🤬🤬🤬/———-I WOULD PREFER BURKS
Ruggles choked. We blew a double digit 4th quarter lead. Georgia deserved to win. Though I gotta say, if Harrison is healthy (not to mention JSN, Stover, and either RB), I think they win.
On the Kennard/Burks/McDermott front, can someone explain why the Clips would want to get rid of Kennard for anything the Cavs can offer? Is it a contract thing?
Didn’t realize the guy shoots 45% career from 3! That’s insane.
Still, my gut tells me Dougie would be the best fit with our squad. Though I’ve always been a big Burks fan, too.
Dougie is washed.
I second that emotion.
Kennard is 26. Makes $14-$15 mil and is under contract for 2 more years. He is shooting 46.2% from deep, lead the league last year (44.2%), and is a career 42.8% from deep. Never really been a starter, save for a stretch with Detroit his 3rd year. 6’5″, lefty. 205.
Burks is 31. Shooting 44.6% from deep. His 3rd straight year over 40%. 6’6″, 214. Can do a little more off the bounce. He makes $10 mil and has a club option next year.
Neither player is great on D.
The Pistons will want a first for Burks. We ain’t got one. Lakers more likely. Not trading Caris fir him. And I don’t think a guy who is gonna be a FA is what Detroit wants.
I’d much prefer Burks to Kennard, who is a target for opposing offenses. But Kennard won’t be given away, either.
Opponent 3-point percentages this season:
Team-worst opponent 3pt% home-road differential so far this year is when Love and Mobley are on the floor together:
I think the road struggles there have maybe more to do with Allen being off the floor than with either of Love or Mobley specifically.
[data as usual from nba.com]
So when Love and Mobley are on the floor together at home, those line ups are shutting down opponents at the 3-pt line, but on the road they’re getting rocked?
The splits mean nothing. home teams shoot better 90+% of the time from three.
Arch: Exactly right. Against Love+Mobley lineups, opponents are making 3.4 three-pointers per game when the Cavs are on the road but only 1.9 per game when the Cavs are at home . . .
scotch: The league rankings I show above already take into account the home court advantage on 3p%. And the magnitude of teams’ 3p% differential is nowhere close to 16% as with Love+Mobley lineups.
I hear you. The variables considered in those splits are obvious. and the defense on paper should be terrible on the perimiter unless they play with neto and levert a lot. But there are significantly more variables involved unless mobley and love are playing with the same 3 players all the time. It’s a correlation for sure. I don’t recall any allen mobley and love front courts. Actually I wonder how well that lineup would fare with DM and DG. That 3some doesn’t make the top 50 3 player lineups for the cavs this year. It sucks that Love is… Read more »
scotch: I looked it up again just to be sure: league-average opponent 3p% is 36.4% on the road and 35.1% at home.
By the way, your mention of the “death lineup” reminded me to say there’s a fun potential “Cavalanche lineup” without Allen that’s fascinated me lately:
Garland+Okoro+LeVert+Osman+Mobley have outscored opponents 82-45 in 27 minutes across 9 games.
Still way too early to proclaim them the solution when Allen sits, but definitely a group to keep an eye out for in future games.
you’re absolutely right that Love and Mobley on the floor is a bad pairing for the cavs. clearly. 16% suckage is an outlier no matter what. The variables involved in terms of sample size both ways can mean they really suck or slightly suck. We do not defend the corner three better than dead people do as a team. I imagine it’s worse with those two on the floor. The ability to play small with Mobley at the 5 should be at the top of JB’s and staff’s mind every freakin game. Mobley has the handles to dribble twice and… Read more »
haha: “better than dead people do”
We do not play a lot of 1 big lineups. I consider Allen, Mibley, Love, & Lopez as “bigs” for this. Of our top 20 most used 5 man lineups, there are four that have only 1 big.
1. DG-IO-CL-CO-EM. 27+ min. +59.6/100 poss.
2. DG-DM-IO-DW-EM. 23+ min. +8.7/100 poss.
3. DG-DM-CL-LS-EM. 20+ min. -5.3/100 poss.
4. DG-DM-MD-DW-EM. 19+ min. +36.7/100 poss
Having Wade as a more mobile 4 who can stretch the floor will help. The top one is awful small, but we should have downsize options. I’d note that there are no JA + 4-non bigs in the top 20.
There may be more in the top 50, but I use BBREF. Anyone see any JA + 4 smalls stuff? Again, the sample sizes herexare AWFUL small.
The thumb injury screwed him up.
And Mobley has not quite shown the agility to play the 3. He is bulking up.
There is a TON of variability in the 3PT shooting stats. Teams can shoot 20% one night and 60% the next.
150 minutes is 3 games. Still a lot of fluctuation there. Some worship +/- and a lot of stats when the sample sizes are so low as to be virtually meaningless (single game, under 50 min). Now, sometimes you can see a guy struggling on the floor, or a guy keys a big run in a game, and +/- confirms.
Or sometimes it can be a canary in a coal mine for telling us how things will work in larger samples (or not).
Or it can speak to the strength (or weakness) of the players that replace the player in question. Or sometimes a guy can be a fortunate passenger during passages of good play, but not a driver. Or hot/cold streaks.
That is why I like at least 250 minutes of data. 150 is OK-ish. Anything less and I fear more noise than signal. Though even then, there are things that can be gleaned. It is certainly a nice tool.
THIS is fascinating. I do sometimes wonder why Love and Allen don’t get as much run together as Love and Mobley considering the play styles. I hate to beat this drum again…but not having a creative solution on defense to when Allen is off the floor screams Jb’s youth. He may yet find a solution to this if Diakite or another backup big finds time. It certainly isn’t gonna be Rolo. But the way that the warriors found success was to eventually run away from Bogut with their bench and death lineups…and it took getting rid of Jackson to unlock… Read more »
Wade & Rubio will help on D.
Love & Allen are together in 3 of our top 20. Love & Mobley 4.
1. DG-CL-CO-KL-EM. +7.1. 56+min.
2. DG-CL-IO-KL-EM. -2.4. 26+min.
3. RN-CL-CO-KL-EM. -3.1. 25+min.
4. DM-CL-CO-KL-EM. -3.0. 20+min.
————
1. DM-CL-CO-KL-JA. +6.3. 46+min.
2. DM-CL-LS-KL-JA. -17.0. 41+ min.
3. DM-CL-IO-KL-JA. +8.9. 40+min.
I think Love is a more natural sub for Allen in a way, because he is better equipped to defend bulkier guys in the post. Evan is still a bit skinny. And also, Love/Mobley pairings is a hopeful prelude to ‘5 out’ ball if Mobes ever gets that 3PT stroke going.
great stuff!
is the home/road difference common for other teams, or just a Cavs problem?
maybe an easy number to get would be the average NBA home 3pt % vs the NBA road 3pt %.
Koby has proven to be a pretty savvy GM. Scoring JA for almost nothing, an injured Exum and a pick, bringing in Rubio, then scoring LeVert for an injured Rubio and resigning Rubio in the summer, so again getting LeVert for almost nothing. Then the blockbuster trade of the summer. Yeah, Lauri is having a great year, so is Donovan Mitchell. Spida is a superstar and he’s going to take us to the finals. He’s the leader this group needed. Whatever happens with Caris, I trust Koby will do what’s best for the Cavs. He’s not going to get fleeced
agree!
We gave up a 1st round pick for Caris. It is why we don’t have ours this year.
are you kidding?? why didn’t they give us Caris for free?
and why didn’t the Jazz give us DM for free??
Agbaji on a roll:
https://www.slcdunk.com/2023/1/9/23546516/making-sense-of-the-ochai-agbaji-last-four-game-run
Now everyone crying in their beer about not having Lauri can double down!
Did Llama and Neto share the JYD?
WOW JASON AND THANK YOU—— YOUR DILLIGENT RESEARCH IS ALWAYS IMPRESSIVE—-KOBY SHOULD PUT U ON CAVS PAYROLL ADVANCE GM SCOUT YOU HAVE A GREAT UNDERSTANDING OF ANALYTICS AND CONTRACTS———-I HAVE A GREAT UNDERSTANDING OF ……”MORE BEER 🍺 PLEASE”🤪
The possibility of trading Levert for a player with the “3 & D” label (recognizing that the best such players are tremendously valuable) gives me flash-backs to the early LeBron Era 1 years when the team kept burning 1st rd picks on an elusive “shooter”: Jiri Welsh, Luke Jackson. There’s a lot of value to having a player Levert’s size who can function as a high-level secondary creator and even take over point guard duties for stretches. Even following a successful return by Rubio, do you want all your playmakers to be 6’2 and under?
Great point at least for this season. If he were under control for more than his year yes. But he isn’t. So his value goes up significantly higher than normal as a trade asset
I think LeVert is a more well-rounded player than Hardaway. Or certainly Bogdonavic or Kennard. He is the best defender of the bunch, and best creator/playmaker. Burks can do some of that, though.
His three point shooting is WAAY worse than any of them, though. Career mark is 33.6%. He is above that this year (36.6%). But is that a blip?
TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU RAOU LON THE RUMORS CARIS FOR THJ—-SOME MEDIA ARE ALL FOR THIS TRADE // THINK CAVS WIN THIS TRADE BY FAR—– I AM NOT ONE OF THEM—ESPECIALLY THE RECENT PLAY OF CARIS—HIS HIGH CHARACTER// LOCKERRROM GUY // AND HE REALLY WANTS TO BE HERE // PART OF THIS GROWTH ——– I AM NOT SAYING YOU DON’T LISTEN TO TRADE TALKS INVOLVING CARIS BUT THEY HAD BETTER BE VERY SURE WHO THEY ARE TRADING AND GETTING IN RETURN—IT NEEDS TO FAVOR US FOR NOW// AND THE NEXT FEW YEARS
MPG, PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, FG%, 3PT%, FT%, TS%
A: 28.7, 13.9, 3.1, 1.6, 0.9, 38.4, 36.4, 78.7, 53.7
B: 31.1, 12.6, 4.1, 3.7, 0.8, 41.3, 36.6, 74.5, 52.0
WS, OWS, DWS, WS/48, BPM, OBPM, DBPM, VORP
A: 1.1, 0.3, 0.9, 0.049, -1.9, -0.5, -1.4, 0.0
B: 1.9, 0.4, 1.5, 0.079, -1.5, -1.9, 0.4, 0.2
Pretty similar.
Player A is slightly better at FTs, PPG (in less minutes), has a slightly better TS% (likely shioting more triples), and is less bad in terms of offensive box +/-.
Player B is a better passer/creator, better rebounder, slightly better from 2PT land, has an edge in win shares (mostly on D), slightly less worse on BPM, much better on defensive box plus/minus, and a slight VORP edge.
A is Hardaway Jr, B is LeVert.
Considering THJ has Luka setting him up, the fact that he is virtually tied with Caris on 3PT% is not encouraging. THJ is a pure 3 & D guy. Caris is better on D, equal on 3s, and create some on his own.
Not equal on 3s. Hardaway is taking twice as many. Having the same 3% doesn’t make you an equal shooter.
I don’t really want either player. Terrible numbers
He also has Luka setting him up. I was talking percentage and noted the fact THJ has a slightly higher TS% due to taking more. Not by a lot though. TS pretty close.
The reason isn’t because LeVert is reluctant, it’s because he has the ball in his hands more. Over double the assists. All THJ does is camp at the line and wait on passess from Luka.
LeVert takes 4.4 a game. His 3PT% this year is a career high (33.6% career).
THJ is 35.8% career, but had two really good years 2 & 3 years ago (39.1 & 39.8).
We may be in a situation where we have to pick one or the other. Or another trade target.
They are virtually the same size. 205 with Caris listed at 6’6″ and THJ at 6’5″.
The big difference is that LeVert is a FA after this year while THJ is under contract for 2 more years (at $17.9 and $16.2). $19.6 this year. 30 years old.
LeVert is a FA. $18.8 this year. 28 years old. We won’t be able to use his $$ to sign someone else.
I prefer LeVert straight up. Easily. I think he is the better defender and a better creator. He can do more things. THJ’s only advantages are career 3PT shooting and the fact he’s under contract for 2 more years.
If Caris would extend in the $15 mil range, and be OK with possibly not starting, I take him over THJ every time. 2 years younger. And THJ has been 33.6 & 36.4 from deep last two years with Luka feeding him. That won’t go up here.
The only way I trade LeVert is if:
1) Clear Upgrade (not THJ), or
2) I don’t think I can re-sign him for reasonable.
All signs are he wants to be here. Ohio guy. History with Allen.
Wanting to be somewhere at this age and the way his career has gone health wise seems unlikely to matter. He has one good long term contract left. Cant imagine he will settle to possibly get irregular mins from JB once rubio returns
FWIW, Philly (1st) and Milwaukee (2nd) have played the easiest schedules so far, and Dueant is out for approximately a month.
We have a tough, road-heavy stretch of schedule coming up. But we are getting healthier. If we play a good two-weeks here I could see us in 2nd. The Celtics have been around .500 since that suoer hot start.
Mitchell EC player of the week. I guess that’s not a surprise.
Durant out for a month with MCL sprain. Time to reel the Nets in.
WCC—TOTALLY AGREE WITH ALL YOUR POSTS ——WONDERING WHAT KIND OF ‘WELCOMING ” SPIDA WILL GET IN UTAH
Per NOMAD, Caris is approaching the core four as being untouchable. Though I would be in favor of trading him if we can resign him like the Rubio deal that brought him here. Hopefully that won’t happen because we’re going to need him for our deep push into the playoffs.
Per Simmo, the Cavs definitely look to be on the upswing, especially Okoro.
I think i terms of on the court value, I’m with NOMAD. If the Core Four are the Beatles, so to speak, then Caris is Billy Preston (the 5th Beatle for all you youngsters).
But what does that translate to in terms of a contract value? Does that value diminish when Rubio is back? If Okoro levels up? If Wade is healthy? Do the Cavs & camp Caris have similar opinions? If not and he is likely gone in FA, makes sense to try and get something.
Rumors of trading Caris + ?? for Tim Hardaway Jr out there. I pretty much think this is a bad idea, and hopefully there is nothing there.
Counterpoint: Caris is not very good and plays an incredibly unappealing style of basketball.
WATCHED THE REPLAY——CARIS IS DOING HIS BEST TO TAKE HIMSELF OUT OF TRADE TALKS OR MAKING HIS ASKING PRICE ALOT BETTER ———-MY DREAM WOULD BE TO HAVE THIS VERSION OF ICE ON A DAILY// GAME BASIS —-GO CAVS !!
Health / run of the squad is on the up. I think the upcoming tough schedule is going to show the Cavs real worth. Feeling positive!
By the way, anyone notice Cedi’s “in your face” 3pt shot tonight? He is still improving.
Just tuned in to Clippers / Hawks to root against the Hawks in the 4th and saw Moses Brown playing for them in the game.
Still confused. A Suns team missing CP3 and Booker still shoot 53.6% (14-26) from three. On the heels of the Nuggets shooting 48.6% (17-35) two nights ago… this is more than a trend, no?
It’s the JB trend. Fortunately he figured out his bench existed and put in Neto.
we give up league worst or close to it on corner threes if i recall correctly. I’d guess that is most of the issue outside of…yeah playing neto.
maybe we are so focused on walling off the paint (with Tower City) and that’s why we are slow to get around picks and running out to contest 3s.
We were 26th in opponent 3PT% heading into last game. We usually have 2 of Allen, Mobley, & Love on the floor at all times. Rarely play with 1 big. We try to oritect the paint first.
Neto should get the JYD chain tonight
LeVert to me. +26
Agreed. Vert played well all game long
I agree go cavs
Yikes, he was not in on the Cavalanche, but 13/10/5/1/2 frim JA. 6/7 FGs. Nice.
I know this was a game we should have won, against an injury riddled opponent. But there were some good signs:
4th quarter Clampdown (that’s a Clash reference) with JB inserting Neto & Stevens into the rotation to spark it. JB flexibility and Neto spark.
Ice hits 4 triples.
Great game from Caris. 13/1/7 on 6-10 FGs.
Really nice Mobley game. 14/8/6 on 7-10 FGs & a block.
Caris played great yet again.
4 players with 5+ assists..
Allen :5
Mobley: 6
Garland and Levert: 7 each
29 team assists on 45 made field goals.
Nice to see the Cavs step it up on the road.
Next 8 are pretty tough. 5 on the road and the 3 hime games are NO (likely no Zion), GSW, and Milwaukee.
Roadies at Utah, Portland, Minny, Memphis, Knicks.
All winnable.
F@#k yeah. Let’s gooooo!
Tough games but they see Cavs on the sched and are also thinking—that’s a tough one
Gotta give JB just a little props with that lineup to start the 4th. Paid off in Spades
Lamalanche!
Nate deserves some sort of award for visual gifs/memes on a sports blog.
HahaHa 🤣 gotta love this blog.
No one is EG, but I’ll take it.
True that, but his legacy is in good hands.
Ice3!
Four triples tonight. Career high?
Hope this is a sign of things to come. Though I like him more as a guard than a SF.
I think it ties it.
Ice trey!
Dia🪁
Lol Ic3 with a step back
Wow what a quarter, that was just some clamps on D and nice ball movement and shot making on O
27-7 advantage for Cavs until garbage minutes at the 2:39 mark… great 4th quarter. Let’s carry that into the Utah game.
DIAKITE GREAT MOVE
Let’s atleast score in garbage time though.
When the Cavs put the defensive screws down it’s pretty impressive.
Osman looking to foul out in garbage time, as a statement to JB!
The guy with all the tattoos and face jewelry behind JB is my fan of the night. That man is committed to the lifestyle
Crazy right? Full head ink
got a pic?
Cedi in for garbage minutes.
You guys have me laughing with those lama gifs and references for Stevens.
You can’t convince me Lama had anything to do with that run.
He had two blocks, a dunk, and a bunch of boards. He had something to do with it.
The almighty +/- has him at +16 before the benches emptied.
Llama.
You may call him Dali.
Neto was the spark, but Caris has been burning the whole game. JYD = Caris
YOU KNOW BALL
lama brick
Up 20. Perfect time for it.
Gonna start calling him Dali.
I feel like this run has a LOT more to do with Raul than Lama.
True. At the start. But Stevens has been in the whole time, Neto has not.
agreed, although Lamar found his rhythm as he stayed in more.
Llama for JYD!
Is Mitchell hurt or in the doghouse?
Okay he’s back
He’s been in for a couple minutes now. Came in for Neto.
I was too focused on Llama!
I think that was good coaching by JB, recognizing the lineup without Mitchell was working so well in those minutes, let the run continue.
23-4 this quarter.
Stevens on the break
Up 20.
Holy Schnikes best quarter of the year????
Game over! Llama for JYD?
Neto or Caris.
Mobley been awful goid as well
OH MY GOD CARIS FADEAWAY DAGGER
Stevens another block!
You like what you see JB?!?!?
NETO PNR TO MOBLEY