Preview & Live Thread: Cavs vs. Knicks

Happy Saturday, Cavs’ fans. The spring peepers are in full effect as the sounds of the frogs looking for love echo across the Great Lakes. In Cleveland, the New York Knicks have arrived to take on the Cavaliers in Cleveland’s first LeBron-less playoff series in 25 years. Isaac Okoro (knee) and Julius Randle (ankle) are both listed as questionable for game one, and I find it more likely that Randle plays than Okoro (don’t mess around with young guys’ knees – just don’t). First off, let’s go to Ben Werth for a breakdown of the most task prospect for the Cavs’: stopping Jalen Brunson, which led to a spirited debate among the CtB Faithful.

Ben Werth: 51 wins. Dope. Having to see Mitchell get roasted by Jalen Brunson, not ideal. Some guys just can’t solve their opponents. Durant can’t solve Dean Wade’s D, (I’ll never stop beating that drum) and Donovan Mitchell just can’t stop Jalen Brunson. It wasn’t just his effort level and Gobert acrimony that sunk the Jazz last spring. Mitchell tried more than people thought. He certainly tried when the Cavs played the Knicks a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately, Brunson simply owns Mitchell. DM can’t read Jalen’s moves, isn’t stronger than the guy (a rarity for Spida) and just can’t keep him out of the lane. Brunson is tough on a lot of guys, but he is a God against DM.

The way the Cavs decide to handle that will be interesting. DM didn’t draw Brunson as a primary assignment when they played this season. But Brunson tried to get DM switched onto him when it was possible. If I’m coaching, I might go a bit weird and have actually have Mitchell start on Brunson to eliminate a scrambled post switch defense on the backend. If they start Okoro on Randle who does most of his damage off the dribble anyway, that PnR is rendered useless.

If Mobley checks Barrett (who will happily shoot the Knicks out of the series if EM drifts too far), the Cavs might be able to overload enough at the start of possessions and limit Knicks ball and man movement since they will already have a matchup they like. Brunson will still toast DM, but we would be forcing Barrett to be the man by helping off of him early with EM. Brunson can beat the Cavs in a series. Barrett can’t. Robinson isn’t a skilled enough mid-roll threat to prevent the Cavs from blitzing if Brunson brings him and Allen into PnR. Brunson might go for 45 or Barrett could get hot from three, but I still think it might be better than getting there after a scramble.

Sidenote: Rubio, Cedi, Wade, Mobley, and Allen was an incredible lineup the other night that was defensively terrifying. My god was that fun to watch if you like long-armed peel backs and closed passing lanes. Rubio, even lost injury, is a fantastic defender and my favorite Wade is on the wing where he can use his feet and also help on the glass. I don’t think we have seen a lineup with Tower city without LeVert, Garland, and/or DM, but if the Cavs need one stop, I am leaning towards that with Okoro in for Cedi or Ricky depending on matchup.

Nate Smith: I literally called that lineup out in the podcast, and was overruled by Eli and Chris who said one of Mitchell and Garland need to be on at all times (and I had Wade at the four and Danny Green at the wing for shooting), but I agree. Cavs need to be unafraid to play big and play mean. If Llama plays, I want 5 hard fouls. They have to beat up Brunson and the Knicks.

Chris Francis: Ben’s talking about one possession, which isn’t what we were talking about on the pod IIRC… one possession to get a stop without DG or DM is fine, but it’s ludicrous to think they should go without DG or DM for extended run.

Nate: I don’t think it’s ludicrous in the right situations, but it likely won’t happen regardless.

Ben: I would have tried it more in the regular season, but there is no chance JB does it in the playoffs. Maybe he goes sans DM and Garland, but if he does, LeVert will certainly get the nod. In any case, Wade at three is difficult to get to without Love on the squad. Fine, but a bit of a bummer.

I have loved DM’s and DG’s effort this season and smarts (especially DG), but there is little chance both are out there in a big defensive possession.I would use Stevens on Randle some, but otherwise this should be a Wade and Cedi series…

Nate:  I noted on the pod that unless New York goes very small, two of Wade, Mobley, and Allen have to be on the floor at all time for rebounding. Though raw numbers give Stevens a slight advantage in rebounding and rebounding percentage, Wade’s offensive production and height give him the advantage. The advanced stats bear it out.

I’m with Ben on Ricky. But I want the Cavs to play bigger. I worry the Cavs will choose the worst of both worlds, and not play Cedi, Raul, and Dean enough. Every time I start feeling confident about the series. I read a Fedor piece about Stevens featuring prominently in the rotation, and I am almost glad Okoro is hurting and he won’t be as tempted to play them both at once.

To me, this is JB’s series to lose, and Donovan’s series to win. Let’s hope the Cavs have figured out the rebounding and Brunson and notch the first win tonight.

P.S. A little more calculator ratting brought to you by CLF…

The Knicks are one of the best isolation offense teams (ranked 7th) in the NBA, and it’s a staple of their offense (top 4 in usage in the NBA). Individual on-ball defense is going to massive for the Cavs, especially since the Knicks will try to hunt DG or Spida on those plays.

The Cavs are top 3 in the NBA in offensive efficiency in transition offense, but they’re in the bottom third of the NBA in frequency. It’s imperative the Cavs rebound on defense so that they can run against scrambled defenses.

The Cavs are also one of the best pick and roll teams in the NBA, and it’s obviously the staple of their offense. Expect the Knicks to try and blitz the pick and roll to prevent DG and Spida from going off, this is the time for Evan Mobley to shine as a playmaker and scorer on the roll. The Cavs roll men are ranked 27th in offensive efficiency, so hopefully Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has had the bigs work on their roll/pop/pass game.

Both the Knicks and Cavs are elite at off-ball cutting on offense, and it’s something both squads should look to do more. Cavs should have an edge in this department because they’re the better passing team. Hopefully they exploit the Knicks deficiency in that department.

In lineup data, here are the top 10 five man lineups on the season for the Cavs that saw more than 33 minutes on the season, of which there are only 18 of them:

Here’s the worst five man lineups with the same minutes criteria:

What does the data say? It suggests Cedi Osman, Caris LeVert, and to a lesser extent, Dean Wade will be critical to the success of the Cavs this post-season. It also suggests the Cavs could struggle with Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens on the floor. Can Bickerstaff strike a balance between offense and defense? Time will tell… Go Cavs!