Preview & Live Thread: Cavs vs. Knicks
2023-04-15 Off By Nate SmithHappy Saturday, Cavs’ fans. The spring peepers are in full effect as the sounds of the frogs looking for love echo across the Great Lakes. In Cleveland, the New York Knicks have arrived to take on the Cavaliers in Cleveland’s first LeBron-less playoff series in 25 years. Isaac Okoro (knee) and Julius Randle (ankle) are both listed as questionable for game one, and I find it more likely that Randle plays than Okoro (don’t mess around with young guys’ knees – just don’t). First off, let’s go to Ben Werth for a breakdown of the most task prospect for the Cavs’: stopping Jalen Brunson, which led to a spirited debate among the CtB Faithful.
Ben Werth: 51 wins. Dope. Having to see Mitchell get roasted by Jalen Brunson, not ideal. Some guys just can’t solve their opponents. Durant can’t solve Dean Wade’s D, (I’ll never stop beating that drum) and Donovan Mitchell just can’t stop Jalen Brunson. It wasn’t just his effort level and Gobert acrimony that sunk the Jazz last spring. Mitchell tried more than people thought. He certainly tried when the Cavs played the Knicks a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately, Brunson simply owns Mitchell. DM can’t read Jalen’s moves, isn’t stronger than the guy (a rarity for Spida) and just can’t keep him out of the lane. Brunson is tough on a lot of guys, but he is a God against DM.
The way the Cavs decide to handle that will be interesting. DM didn’t draw Brunson as a primary assignment when they played this season. But Brunson tried to get DM switched onto him when it was possible. If I’m coaching, I might go a bit weird and have actually have Mitchell start on Brunson to eliminate a scrambled post switch defense on the backend. If they start Okoro on Randle who does most of his damage off the dribble anyway, that PnR is rendered useless.
If Mobley checks Barrett (who will happily shoot the Knicks out of the series if EM drifts too far), the Cavs might be able to overload enough at the start of possessions and limit Knicks ball and man movement since they will already have a matchup they like. Brunson will still toast DM, but we would be forcing Barrett to be the man by helping off of him early with EM. Brunson can beat the Cavs in a series. Barrett can’t. Robinson isn’t a skilled enough mid-roll threat to prevent the Cavs from blitzing if Brunson brings him and Allen into PnR. Brunson might go for 45 or Barrett could get hot from three, but I still think it might be better than getting there after a scramble.
Sidenote: Rubio, Cedi, Wade, Mobley, and Allen was an incredible lineup the other night that was defensively terrifying. My god was that fun to watch if you like long-armed peel backs and closed passing lanes. Rubio, even lost injury, is a fantastic defender and my favorite Wade is on the wing where he can use his feet and also help on the glass. I don’t think we have seen a lineup with Tower city without LeVert, Garland, and/or DM, but if the Cavs need one stop, I am leaning towards that with Okoro in for Cedi or Ricky depending on matchup.
Nate Smith: I literally called that lineup out in the podcast, and was overruled by Eli and Chris who said one of Mitchell and Garland need to be on at all times (and I had Wade at the four and Danny Green at the wing for shooting), but I agree. Cavs need to be unafraid to play big and play mean. If Llama plays, I want 5 hard fouls. They have to beat up Brunson and the Knicks.
Chris Francis: Ben’s talking about one possession, which isn’t what we were talking about on the pod IIRC… one possession to get a stop without DG or DM is fine, but it’s ludicrous to think they should go without DG or DM for extended run.
Nate: I don’t think it’s ludicrous in the right situations, but it likely won’t happen regardless.
Ben: I would have tried it more in the regular season, but there is no chance JB does it in the playoffs. Maybe he goes sans DM and Garland, but if he does, LeVert will certainly get the nod. In any case, Wade at three is difficult to get to without Love on the squad. Fine, but a bit of a bummer.
I have loved DM’s and DG’s effort this season and smarts (especially DG), but there is little chance both are out there in a big defensive possession.I would use Stevens on Randle some, but otherwise this should be a Wade and Cedi series…
Nate: I noted on the pod that unless New York goes very small, two of Wade, Mobley, and Allen have to be on the floor at all time for rebounding. Though raw numbers give Stevens a slight advantage in rebounding and rebounding percentage, Wade’s offensive production and height give him the advantage. The advanced stats bear it out.
I’m with Ben on Ricky. But I want the Cavs to play bigger. I worry the Cavs will choose the worst of both worlds, and not play Cedi, Raul, and Dean enough. Every time I start feeling confident about the series. I read a Fedor piece about Stevens featuring prominently in the rotation, and I am almost glad Okoro is hurting and he won’t be as tempted to play them both at once.
To me, this is JB’s series to lose, and Donovan’s series to win. Let’s hope the Cavs have figured out the rebounding and Brunson and notch the first win tonight.
P.S. A little more calculator ratting brought to you by CLF…
The Knicks are one of the best isolation offense teams (ranked 7th) in the NBA, and it’s a staple of their offense (top 4 in usage in the NBA). Individual on-ball defense is going to massive for the Cavs, especially since the Knicks will try to hunt DG or Spida on those plays.
The Cavs are top 3 in the NBA in offensive efficiency in transition offense, but they’re in the bottom third of the NBA in frequency. It’s imperative the Cavs rebound on defense so that they can run against scrambled defenses.
The Cavs are also one of the best pick and roll teams in the NBA, and it’s obviously the staple of their offense. Expect the Knicks to try and blitz the pick and roll to prevent DG and Spida from going off, this is the time for Evan Mobley to shine as a playmaker and scorer on the roll. The Cavs roll men are ranked 27th in offensive efficiency, so hopefully Coach J.B. Bickerstaff has had the bigs work on their roll/pop/pass game.
Both the Knicks and Cavs are elite at off-ball cutting on offense, and it’s something both squads should look to do more. Cavs should have an edge in this department because they’re the better passing team. Hopefully they exploit the Knicks deficiency in that department.
In lineup data, here are the top 10 five man lineups on the season for the Cavs that saw more than 33 minutes on the season, of which there are only 18 of them:
Here’s the worst five man lineups with the same minutes criteria:
What does the data say? It suggests Cedi Osman, Caris LeVert, and to a lesser extent, Dean Wade will be critical to the success of the Cavs this post-season. It also suggests the Cavs could struggle with Isaac Okoro and Lamar Stevens on the floor. Can Bickerstaff strike a balance between offense and defense? Time will tell… Go Cavs!
Brunson missed a shot, incredible…
Spide to the rescue.
WE NEED STOPSSSS !! Come on Cavs we can do this !
Cavs getting outrebounded by 13 LMFAOOOOO
Rebounding is going to dictate who wins every game this series.
It feels like Brunson has 40 but he’s only on 23
He’d have 40 if not for the early foul trouble…
We need stops.. which not only means forcing a miss but rebounding the damn ball… and Cedi walked on that pass to DM.. glad they didn’t call it
Cedi! Monster rebound and assist to Mitchell!
Can some other Cavs please help Mitchell? Please?
JA cooked on the perimeter didnt play the 3.
That looked like good d. Brunson hit a ridiculous shot.
another offensive rebound that leads to a score by the Knicks… kills momentum … and sucks the life out of the crowd and team.
Brunson just killing the Cavs…
Why didn’t Allen try to block that?!
im starting to dislike randle
Starting to?
Bullshit head slap from Randall. Send Lamar in to headbutt that bum.
What the hell was Randle complaining about?
Randle such a flawed character. His mentality will provide opportunities for the Cavs.
He’s such a red ass on the court…always has been…
Cedi made a three, he’ll be benched by JB now.
Another face shot to DG…
Finally Allen!!!
We need more of these easy dunks…
Cedi unafraid
Cedi playing all in ball denial on Brunson.
Monley playing like a dope.
The refs have basically decided the Knicks are winning this game
But Cavs also haven’t helped with no defensive rebounds, giving up transition shots and turning the ball over.. that’s not on the refs.
Hard to rebound when the Knicks are allowed to grab arms and push underneath and we’re not allowed the same level of contact …Allen has been getting mugged on the boards all game and can’t get a call
SHOOT SOME DAMN THREES WHY ARE WE PASSING UP OPEN THREES????????????????????
WHAT A JOKE, GAVE UP THREE REBOUNDS LIKE A BUNCH OF BUMS
Effort..
That defensive sequence suuuucked.
Why no rebound why
Great D and they get the dunk anyway. Sigh.
Too much offensive rebounds…
WE ARE DOWN 10 SHOOT SOME DAMN THREES
We need to get stops more than make 3’s..
SHOOT THREES YOU MORONS WTF ARE WE DOING?????????????
Hard to believe RJ Barrett is playing big minutes for a playoff team…definition of meh player…
Fantastic play Spida.
Hart is. Killing the Cavs. Should’ve given up Okoro for him.
I thought they should have tried to get him, because he competes like a mother…
And we need second chance opportunities at this time too..
Mobley’s gotta get people in the air or kick it out. Can’t just go up against 2 big guys in the paint.
Down 10.. hmmm.. this is going to be a very long 10 min.
Mobley has to step up and finish around the basket
We need some easy dunks for Mobley and JA.. their self created post game looks haven’t been the best.
Zero chance that happens because of all the minutes Okoro plays.
Woof
Mitchell gassed. JB gambled by playing the Starters and lost. Dude has no coaching bag.
Evan Mobley couldn’t hit the ocean if he was standing in it.
These refs are ridiculous…Mitchell gets blatantly shoved in mid air and can’t get the call
Cavs starters coasting through their extra minutes here.
Hart just feasts on those putbacks…Cavs just aren’t shooting well enough to win this game…it would be interesting to see how many bunnies they’ve missed, it’s egregious…
Another paint point and offensive rebound on the fastbreak..
Cavs just giving up the hustle points.
WTF was Mitchell doing?
think he was expecting the call?
Let Hart blow by him and then a terrible drive where he was wishing for a foul.
Feel like this is gonna be an emotional boost.
Flagrant 1 would be nice. Way to give up the body, Ice.
It should be.
Okoro putting his body on the line!
Okoro has 2 rebounds in 25 minutes.
finally got #3
while Hart has 7 rebounds in 21 min off the bench.
Jesus, poor Ice…that was nasty…
Nice play to start the quarter.
Fun fact, Mitchell, Cedi, Caris, Wade lineup is a +30 on the season
DM: 9-18 FG
DG: 7-13 FG
Rest of the team – 10/31 FG
can’t buy a bucket man
The playoffs is about winning under pressure. Go Cavs!
Be interesting to see the lineup to start the fourth.
Starting 5…
Watching in a bar with no sound. Was Randle called for a foul on Okoro?
nope
nope…
Ridiculous
going to need to have a massive 4th quarter tonight. we’ve played tight all game, bad turnovers, blown layups, etc.
sigh… down 8… we will need one of our “4th quarter lockdown defense” and timely shots to pull this one out.
How did Mobley not get a foul there?
When you’re a Knick, they let you do it…they mugged Okoro seconds earlier…
That rim roll out is how this entire game has gone…Cavs better get something from Caris, DG, Cedi, or someone else in the 4th or they’re cooked.
Yep those rim roll out hurts..
Smart! Harty in the circle and Cedi knew it.
30-8 bench advantage for the Knicks.
Knicks bench: 10/18 FG
Cavs bench: 2/11 FG
I just don’t understand how JB thinks he can rebound with Cedi and Caris versus Hart and Toppin.
Cavs need a monster 4th.. have not hit 25 points for any of the quarters so far..24-21-22
Cavs getting outplayed for sure. Role players a no show. Really, Donovan seems to be the only one consistently getting it done
Where is Wade
He shot a monster brick in the first quarter…
I don’t care. Need his size to rebound.
The brick is probably why JB isn’t playing him…
No comment.
Another offensive rebound and a fast break by the Knicks..… no effort from Cavs
Another offensive rebound… no effort from Cavs
Where is Wade.
Getting tired of Spike Lee.
Cavs crapping the bed to end the quarter…