Recap: Cavs 110, Pistons 101 (or, Lost Dawgs Found?)
2023-12-04The Cavs were able to pull out victory from the jaws of defeat with a couple of Max Strus-led runs in the second and third quarter as the Cavs avoid infamy and deliver the Pistons their 17th straight loss 110-101. Let’s dive into Saturday night’s takeaways…
1. Lost Dawgs Found?
The two Cavs who have basically been unplayable up to this point of the season are Isaac Okoro and Georges Niang. Okoro has been dealing with a lingering knee injury that has had him in and out of the lineups, and Niang is a newcomer struggling to find his shots within the offense and on defense he’s Kevin Love without drawing charges nor the elite rebounding. Hopefully Saturday night’s game is a sign of things to come as both of them played arguably their best games of the season posting a couple of +15 plus/minuses in their respective minutes off the bench.
For the season Okoro has been in the bottom quartile of the NBA in defensive rebound rate (10.3%), but put up a 16.7% defensive rebound rate against Detroit. That along with four steals and four assists, and all of a sudden Ice goes from an unplayable ninth man off the bench to a nice ninth man off the bench. Given his reputation as a defensive stalwart, the rebounding and defensive playmaking are non-negotiables. For his entire career, the rebounding has been non-existent, and the defensive playmaking, while improved, hasn’t always been there. At this point, yours truly couldn’t care less about the shooting. If he’s not going to rebound and be active on defense, there’s no reason for him to play. May this be the beginning of Isaac Rodman!
As for Niang, it appears that he’s replaced Lamar Stevens as the “junkyard dawg” role and this team sorely needs some of that. He’s willing to talk shit, willing to throw around his weight, and is supremely confident in his game. He was unplayable during the playoffs last season for the 76ers and might get bumped out of the rotation for the Cavs should they make the playoffs this season, but for better or worse this is who the Cavs are stuck with. Honestly if he just wants to bait opponents into fights, that could be invaluable on a team full of nice guys.
2. Darius Garland trending up?
While DG the PG didn’t have the greatest shooting night against Detroit, he did post a sterling +13 plus/minus in his 34 minutes of action and was able to steer the Cavs to victory late in the fourth quarter. His turnover rate is dropping, his scoring efficiency is increasing, and his elite passing is still there. He also posted four stocks in the game, including a magnificent steal to short circuit a fast break. DG’s net rating is now third on the team just behind Max Strus and Donovan Mitchell. The Cavs’ recent success is certainly tied to better play from their franchise point guard.
3. JB Bickerstaff uses 10 players!
Now was that so hard JB? Coach Bickerstaff was able to buy three to four minutes of rest by going to Craig Porter, Jr., Tristan Thompson, and Sam Merrill, all of whom posted plus/minuses of zero. Part of the job of a coach is to instill confidence in his players by trusting them to get the job done. Maybe this was a lesson learned?
4. Quick word about Detroit
17 losses in a row. A never-ending rebuild. Disastrous decision-making by the whole organization. Benching and trading decent players and acquiring and playing generational draft busts. And supposedly there are reports that ownership has no desire to fire anyone for the atrocity going on the banks of the Detroit River. The fans of Detroit deserve better. #FireTroyWeaver
5. Next up, Orlando Magic
The Cavs will welcome the newest darling team of the Eastern Conference Orlando Magic to the shores of Lake Erie for a possible playoff preview. Rumors are key rotation player Dean Wade will be available for the matchup, which will be crucial against the size of the Magic. The Magic are one of the hottest teams in the NBA currently, going 9-1 over the last 10 games. A win against the Magic would be a big one, Go Cavs!
LT up
Matching donations up to $200 if anyone wants Cavs tix tonight. https://x.com/oldseaminer/status/1732394821178843403?s=20
I’m starting to like the HoopsDog!
I was troubled by Jalen Duren’s magnificent first half on the offensive end, maybe watching the Detroit broadcast (which is hilarious by the way if you want excitement like “look at all those rebounds!” amid the tower of L’s) gave it a little extra edge of fear that Allen was mentally still feeding his cat, having given up, shades of his response to playoff losses of yore. But then you look at the box score and see that Allen was a monster on the offensive end in that very same first half, so it seems the two big men simply… Read more »
On Garland turnovers, has anyone thought that it is quite possibly the long tail of his injured thumb, along with some early-season “this is where I think you are going to be a microsecond from now” lack of clarity for new teammates? I suppose someone could do a percentage spreadsheet of how his turnovers happen i.e. to whom is he trying to pass, when it’s that rather than a pure steal or just losing the handle. Somehow his turnovers in the paint feel less unjust than when LaVert tries bounce passes or wrap-arounds under the basket to Tower City types.
Also Duren is the new Andre Drummond, 1-6 from the line. Bring back the Grandma free throw style, if it was good enough for the whole league in the 1950s, it has to be good enough for Detroit’s young prospect, it is never too early to start preparing for Detroit’s meaningful in-season tournament games in 2027.
Adam always great to hear from you and appreciate the kind words! LMFAOOO Love the Molotov and Ribbentrop line!! Agreed, definitely think Niang talking shit to Duren rattled him. Two good points on DG re injury and new teammates, I may take 40 or 50 games before they’re truly in rhythm as a team, and will have to still figure stuff out if they make the playoffs. The biggest problem DG’s game at this point is the lack of 3 point shooting… it’s getting to be ridiculous. And Amen on the grandma free throws… a lot of guys care more… Read more »
the director of the local YMCA when I was a kid had been a star for OSU maybe in the 30’s or 40’s. anyway, he could shoot granny style shots from way beyond half court with a very high percentage. I think his name was Ray something.
I think that the in-season tournament is a good idea, although I’d prefer to be watching the Cavs.
I’ll say this for it – waaaay more interesting than the all-star weekend.
Lowest bar imaginable, but still true.
the NFL all star weekend might be a lower bar
who knew that MLB had a draft lottery?
and, a great way to find out!
Looking for some Christmas shopping help I’m doing for a charity. I don’t have kids, so anyone with experience shopping for a 12 year old girl please chime in. One of the things she asked for was a basketball. Is there a youth girls basketball I should get? Or just get a standard size. Can’t reach out to the family for any more details so not sure what to get. Any thoughts would be massively appreciated.
She also wants dolls but I figured I’d have more luck here with the basketball question 😂.
Seeing Wilson’s website recommends size 6 for women 9 and up.
Definitely get the women’s ball makes a huge difference for their ability to develop proper mechanics and just have more fun.
back in the day, I was in lots of pickup games with women from the team at a mid major univ. sometimes we would use the woman’s size ball, and I really liked it.
For sure, i loved those mini-basketballs as a kid, used to play with them one on one all the time! Lower the rim too! LMFAOO
haha – they are not that small, but help in ball handling and long range shooting
My daughter has been slamming a size 5 for a few years now (she’s 10), but a slightly larger size would help prepare for the future no doubt.
Thanks for the replies. I was definitely the stubborn kid who would insist on having the regulation size ball which probably explains why I shoot like crap.
LMFAOOO I hear that!
BATES WITH 32—5/ 11 FROM 3 PT LAND——4MIN S LEFT——— NANCE / 3RD —PLAYING WELL OF LATE——- 20 /13
LOVE IT!
Seems to me that yes, you can be an average team in rebounding, but you need to be able to do it when called upon. The Knicks definitely seemed to prioritize attcking the boards and dominating that phase as a primary gameplan, and seemed to result in Okoro being rendered unplayable and gutting the Cavs play overall. I like Ice, I cheer his successes and hope for him to flourish here, but he absolutely needs to bring more in his minutes this year than last.
The theory someone posted the other day that very few coaches (not named Pops) are good at both development and playoff coaching, is looking pretty good.
So I see this season as decision time for JR.
So far I am not seeing much growth. A lot of things are subjective, but the “live or die with an ultrashort rotation” has been a bad idea from day 1.
JR?
Oh. JB.
haha, one of them guys.
I’m not of the opinion that DRB% is an ideal predictor of defensive success or of overall team rebounding, and it’s weird to see it presented with a regularized bayesian regression all-in-one Stat like EPM or DPM. When we ran gotbuckets, we had a four factors apm rebound ranking that regularized the metric for impacr. For instance, in his rookie year we noted that Delly was one of the best guards in the league at helping his team defensive rebound. He ranked in the 99th percentile of guards even though his raw rebounding numbers were pedestrian. This was because he… Read more »
Here’s a good primer in ffapm rebounding Stat.
https://web.archive.org/web/20160121124914/http://www.gotbuckets.com/2014/04/22/introducing-four-factors-apm-ffapm/
I’m super torn on how much defensive rebounding matters overall (vs as a matchup / personnel advantage in a single series or two): it’s definitely not a skill you go out and source in FA/trade, but obviously terminating offensive possessions has loads of value.
And of course you just viscerally hate the offensive rebound to made 3 when it happens after a good defensive possession.
Of course it matters, but I’d hypothesize that it matters just as much to offense as it does on defense. Defensive e rebounding is literally the moment that you switch from D to O. It is much easier to get in transition and scoring ticks up after a miss. More than it does a on an out of time out or score possesion.
Didn’t say it didn’t matter, just thinking through value relative to other skills, as team construction is inherently value prioritization intermixed with opportunity analysis.
In other words, not looking at absolute value or utility on the floor. More like “if we are just average, how much should it matter – and more practically, how much should we pay to fix it?”
Good comment, Nate.
every rebound is another possession — the more, the better!
Delly, perhaps due to his rugby background, was great at hard to spot physical interactions.
The time some guy stepped on him in the playoffs, and Delly somehow locked the stepping foot with his feet, which caused him to be lifted off the floor when the guy tried to step away, was absolutely classic. Never seen that before or since. Can anyone get a video of that? The Cavs need a statue of that moment to put in front of the gym.
I believe that was Taj Gibson in the Bulls’ series in 2015, and Gibson was tossed for that. Epic moment.
haha!
and as Delly was lifted off the ground by Taj’s foot, he had a great “who, me?” look on his face.
Masterclass in brinksmanship. At the time, I couldn’t believe he had the balls to do it. As a supporter, you love to see it because you knew it was signing a lease to live rent-free in the opposition’s heads.
Aussie rules football, not rugby Raoul. But the same skillset of a full-contact game, which he adapted to his credit.
I disagree with the excuses made for Okoro “shadowing” a perimeter player on defense as a legitimate reason why he’s consistently one of the worst rebounders in the NBA year after year. Ausar Thompson is a rookie in the same role and hits 22%. Okoro just needs to suck it up and get boards cuz he’s functionally useless otherwise IMO.
Okoro on top here. 2022-current. Carusoe on bottom. You don’t need to be a passable DR% player to be playable defensive specialist, and Carusoe didn’t really get above ten percent till he got into his fourth season. That being said, I don’t think Caruso got to elite defensive player until he got his rebound rate up to a semi respectable level. Still plenty of time for Okoro but he needs better coaching.
If Okoro ever produces a stock rate like Caruso’s, which is nearly double of Okoro’s, then I’ll gladly stop bitching about Okoro’s rebounding LMFAOOO
Defense is coming around, offense is an atrocity.
Nice piece btw, Chris.
Thank you kind sir!
Really don’t love DREB as a generally effective stat for a perimeter POA defender for same reason I don’t sweat Allen or Mobleys boards when they are out on perimeter.
Think obvious to compare DREB% not in a vaccuum but to other wing defenders league wide
“Okoro has been in the bottom quartile of the NBA in defensive rebound rate” I literally relativized his numbers… he stinks compared to other wing defenders. He gets outrebounded by the likes of point guards like Tre Jones. Hope that helps.
Peyton Pritchard, Fred VanVleet, and Damian Lillard also have higher defensive rebound rates. Okoro sucks at rebounding, period.
Yeah if three random guards are better Okoro must suck.
Be rigorous, comparative and fair in your analysis. Don’t cherry pick.
LMFAOOO if you can’t understand how bad of a rebounder Okoro is, you’re beyond help.
Eat dirt. You made a methodology goof and when someone mentions that you have your thumb on the scale now you retreat to “but it’s wut I FEEEEL LMFAOOOO look it up yourself” Don’t talk to anyone about accountability if you can’t meet a standard. And the stat itself is useless – defensive rebounding is the lowest value basketball skill, and even more so for a guard than a big. Lose one series to the best offensive rebounding in the league and it fucked up your whole paradigm. Just a real mountain of pedanticism in service of riding another weird… Read more »
when debating online, always a good idea to take about 60 seconds before hitting “Post”, which gives you a chance to reword things.
Wise words. This fragile beach community needs to chillax a bit and appreciate what we have had here for a long stretch. Would be a shame if comment frequency dropped and antipathy increased. We’d be just like the rest of the interwebs, and who wants that?
OK, this is the last time I’ll respond to you since you lack basic respect. There was no methodology goof, if you can’t outrebound shitty rebounders like Damian Lillard or Fred VanVleet, then maybe Okoro just simply sucks at rebounding. I don’t know what the hell you’re talking about as far as accountability. I’ve been writing here for years and dealt with the likes of you for years. Of course rebounding is easy, I played the game and know it’s about hustle and little else. Okoro isn’t even a guard he plays small forward and power forward 97% of his… Read more »
Truth can hurt. Be well.
You relativized as to all players, not guards.
Then you cherry picked a handful of guards who have higher dreb rates.
Bad analysis. Just give his percentage relative to guards, don’t just confirm your own priors and stop. Fake numbers
You can look at the complete list of NBA players at dunksandthrees.com. You can sift thru the data yourself.