Should the Cavs amnesty Baron Davis?
2011-12-07
The new NBA collective bargaining agreement contains a provision that allows every NBA team to “amnesty” one player’s contract. This would allow the team to waive the player, and the player’s salary would not count towards salary cap or luxury tax thresholds. The team would still need to pay the player, and the player would be a free agent capable of signing with another team.
(Edit: A couple of astute readers have pointed out a mis-understanding of the amnesty provision. If a player is amnestied, then all teams under the salary cap can place a bid on the player. If an under-the-cap team places a high bid to pay Davis $5 million per year, the Cavs are only responsible for the balance of his contract. If no team bids on the player, then he becomes a free agent. Despite that realization, I stand by the rest of the post. Thank you HoopsDogg and Daniel for pointing out my error.)
The consensus among the national NBA media has been that the Cavs will amnesty Baron Davis. Until recently, this has been treated as obvious, a slam dunk…but I don’t agree with making the move. Recent rumors are that the Cavs are also leaning away from it. Given that a team still needs to pay the player, there appear to be two main reasons for amnesty; to avoid the luxury tax, or to free cap space for additional free agents. Neither of these reasons seems to be compelling for the Cavs to drop Davis. The Cavs position as it relates to the luxury tax is solid. The Cavs have 14 players under contract this season for $65 million, while the estimated luxury tax level is $70 million (both numbers are representative of an 82 game season). For 2012 – 2013, the Cavs will have eight players under contract for approximately $45 million (this includes several million for another lottery pick). There is no cause for concern about the luxury tax.
As far as freeing cap space to sign an expensive free agent, there doesn’t seem to be a rationale for doing that. The Cavs have positioned themselves well for a rebuilding project. They just drafted Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson in the high lottery and have seven more first round picks in the next four drafts. Other than Irving and Thompson, only Anderson Varejao has a guaranteed contract beyond 2012 – 2013. Draft picks and flexibility are exactly what a re-building team needs; why would the Cavs add a new long-term free agent piece to the puzzle, before having a chance to evaluate how Irving and Thompson fit? It doesn’t make sense.
This post isn’t focusing on Baron Davis’ basketball talent or his motivation; but when he wants to play, Baron Davis is a really good basketball player. Most reports indicate that Davis has been working very hard this off-season. Why should the Cavs pay him $30 million for the next two years to play for the Heat or Lakers? If Davis plays well this season, his talent combined with his expiring contract could be valuable in a trade next year. If he isn’t motivated and doesn’t play well, the amnesty can still be used next summer. With amnestying next summer, the Cavs would have $30 million in cap space going into 2012 – 2013. Players under contract would be Irving, Thompson, a 2012 lottery pick, Anderson Varejao, Omri Casspi, Ramon Sessions, and Christian Eyenga. Those players with that cap space isn’t a bad re-building base. As a “worst case” non-amnestying scenario; Davis plays for the Cavs for two years, and the Cavs enter 2013 – 2014 with Irving, Thompson, a 2012 lottery pick, a 2013 Cavs first round pick, a 2013 Heat first round pick, Varejao, Casspi, Eyenga, and $30 million to sign free agents. “Worst case” is used lightly; having Baron Davis around for two years while accumulating young talent and maintaining cap flexibility could be the best case scenario. Letting a young core start to define itself prior to attempting to add a high-profile acquisition makes sense; this allows the Cavs to target the appropriate free agents or trades that fit the roster.
Obviously the Cavs’ 2011 -2012 roster is a little nonsensical; it can be argued that the best six players are point guards and power forwards. I’d like to see the Cavs play the following unit for 15 – 18 minutes every game.
• PG – Irving
• SG – Eyenga / Manny Harris
• SF – Casspi
• PF – Thompson
• C – Varejao
The Cavs can see how the young guys play with each other, as these players have the only contracts that extend past 2012 – 2013. This season is as good as any to start figuring out what works and what doesn’t. This is also a reasonable group where Irving can play as the PG in a “traditional” lineup. With Davis & Sessions around, it will be important to give Irving opportunities to lead as undisputed PG. The other 30 minutes a game in 2011- 2012 can be spread amongst a variety of two point guard, two (or three) power forward lineups.
In summary, I see no reason to pay Baron Davis to play basketball for someone else this season. If everyone is healthy; a Cavs team including Davis, Irving, Varejao, Antawn Jamison, etc could be interesting. Keeping Davis now helps maintain flexibility later. Seems like an easy decision to me.
James, Davis would have no choice I believe but to play for the team with the highest bid, unless he wanted to retire instead, or take a buyout from the cavs that the organization would find favorable to paying him the difference between the highest bid and what he is owed on his current contract (assuming that once the cavaliers announce amnesty and bidding starts that they would even have the option to bye him out, which I’m not sure of but if i had to guess I would doubt it). Both of those are incredibly unlikely scenarios, so pretty… Read more »
Would Davis be compelled to join the team that makes the highest bid? What are his options? Does there exist any avenue that Davis could follow that would result in the Cavaliers paying the two year salary commitment, Davis rejecting(if he can) all teams that bid on him, and then Davis signing an additional contract with the team of his choice i.e Lakers/Heat? Clearly the Cavs should not amnesty Davis for all the good reasons stated above in this thread. Additionally, I am wary of possible “interpretation” of the amnesty provsion that might tend to strengthen teams like the Lakers,… Read more »
As for Baron Davis, I don’t necessarily think he has bad habits. He shoots too many bad threes, but he’s a streak shooter, and he sees himself as a clutch player. The biggest thing about Baron is that he is very driven by respect. If he feels he is respected and put in a leadership position, then he excels. See his time in Golden State, and early on in Charlotte. If he doesn’t feel this way, he’s awful. (See his time on the Clippers with Mike Dunleavy — a horrific match — and Donald Sterling, who he loathed). He is… Read more »
Possible Reasons to Amnesty Baron:
1. Team that picks him up off waivers would pay some portion of his contract, saving Cavs money.
2. Clear up playing time for Kyrie
3. Prevent Baron’s bad habits from influencing youngsters
4. Increase likelihood of poor performance and high draft pick
HoopsDogg and Daniel,
Thanks for pointing out that intricacy of the amnesty provision. I was not aware.
Ryan Young, I did make some general simplifications. I don’t know what the salary cap will be in 2013 – 2014 and as you note, the Cavs will certainly need to sign additional players before then. All things considered though, there’s no reason to think the Cavs can’t be $25 – 30 million under the cap going into the 2013 season. A harder thing for the Cavs to manage may be getting a quality free agent to come to Cleveland without needing to hugely overpay. The last thing the Cavs want to do is to end up with the equivalent… Read more »
Great article, well-reasoned. The only (small) dispute I have is with the words, “Why should the Cavs pay him (Davis) $30 million for the next two years to play for the Heat or Lakers?” This is factually not true. If the Cavs amnesty Davis, they are only liable for the difference between his full salary and whatever the Lakers, Heat or any other team would bid for his services. The highest bidder would get Davis, so if he is amnestied and the the Lakers win the bidding war at $6 million per year, then the Cavs would pay the the… Read more »
Who would we move Jamison for? This would mean taking on longer term contracts, which is a hell of a commitment. Kevin’s post is spot-on the fact that our current core of players is a huge mystery. We need to sit back and watch them play basketball together for a couple years before deciding what to do. Might as well do that knowing Jamison’s contract will slide off the books 66 games from now and Boom Diddy’s the year after that. We’re in a great place right now. The only three goals for this team between The Decision and 2013… Read more »
@Mike Agreed! I think moving Jamison is a much better option than amnestying Davis who, if nothing else, provides something to get excited about. The only thing I didn’t find addressed in this post but rather overlooked was the fact that once we have all this cap space we have only 8 men on the books. Players are not going to sign for one and two years as we rebuild so it won’t be as easy at it sounds to navigate through those times. We need a solid rebuilding core that can be supplemented with cheap role players who we… Read more »
Why would we amnesty Davis? We can trade him for good stuff in a season and a half! Let’s talk about who wants Jamison and who we can get for him!
@Chip If I’m not mistaken, Hollins has a player option which he’d be stupid not to exercise.
Chip: Yes, the Cavs are brining back Hollins. He has a player option so you could say we are likely ‘stuck’ with him. However, I expect him to be a decent player this year worth the $ we’re paying him. He has size, athleticism and hustle (can’t be taught). And although his basketball IQ isn’t very high, being in the same system for a second straight year can only help him. Also, if you look at the last 10-15 games of the season with Baron helping him out some, he was a pretty solid contributor. I don’t see him being… Read more »
Ryan Hollins is under contract as far as I know. And yes, the Baron amnesty thing makes no sense. The only teams where amnesty makes sense is teams that must cut salary to get under the tax threshold, or free up money under the cap to chase free agents. There’s no point in the Cavs chasing any free agents that will cost significant money. Also, if they amnesty Baron, he will NOT be playing for the Heat or Lakers. If he is amnestied, then his contract can be bid on by all teams under the cap, which the Heat and… Read more »
I’d like to confirm something: the Cavs are NOT bringing back Ryan Hollins, correct?
Alex,
Good points. The Cavs definitely have assets to start building with.
It isn’t clear yet if you can trade and then amnesty. That would sort of defeat the purpose of the amnesty clause, wouldn’t it?
I say keep him. He can help mentor Irving and only has 2 years on his contract. Jamison’s expiring contract can be traded this year for some young players and/or a late 1st pick. Davis can be traded next year for a similar package. Also, that would leave the amnesty unused, which would give the team the ability to take on a bad contract plus a pick/player and amnesty off the contract.