Live Thread: Cavs @ Clippers
2026-02-04Definitely weird one, Cavs fans. Darius Garland and James Harden traded places yesterday but neither are suiting up tonight as they still have to pass physicals — and the Beard has to show DG all the best clubs. Also missing for the Cavs are Mobley and Strus while the Clips are without Ivaka Zubac and TyTy Washington. (Brad Beal was lost for the season in Nov.)
The Clips we’re on a tear with a an 11-4 January but have dropped 2-3 since Harden started pouting. The Cavs have been without Garland and Mobley off and on through the year, so especially without Zubac in the middle, Allen and Mitchell should feast. Just gotta keep the turnovers down. Oh and Ellis and Schröder are dressing. This week has been the longest month ever. Go Cavs.
Jason: thnx for digging up some great data again.
“Win Share Per 48” is a new one for me. it seems like an excellent stat, and the historic correlation passes the eye test.
Wins shares is not an excellent stat because the correlation to winning is much weaker than regularized and adjusted plus minus. And if you’re dealing with counting stats, box plus minus (BPM) is better than Wins shares
Not that wins shares is bad, per se, it’s just one of the oldest aggregated stats right up there with PER.
I think the post-season underperformances by both Garland and Harden are overblown. More important than athletic performance is whether Garland can/could stay healthy, and so far that has been a shortcoming. …Did DG’s toe injury affect his ability to perform at all, or did he just choke?… Kind of absurd. It’s a win now move, so let’s win now. And if there needs to be chatter about (anticipated/feared?) underperformance, so be it. I’m looking forward to updating my understanding of how much of a team player JH is rather than a clear-it-out one-on-one foul hunting grifter that I have taken… Read more »
AS MUCH AS I HAVE “ BROADCASTED “ MY SUPPORT OF OMIER—- THINK HE IS STILL A YEAR AWAY ( especially for playoffs ) KOBY NEEDS TO “ SCOUR “ THE VIABLE POST PLAYER CANDIDATE s AVAILABLE—-EXPERIENCED
DG/JH trade backstory, LAC side:
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/47840039/james-harden-kawhi-leonard-la-clippers-cleveland-cavaliers-darius-garland
GREAT STATS / INFO JASON 👍🙏👍🙏——- 1 STAT THAT STICKS OUT——-HARDEN s WORST PERFORMANCES ARE STILL BETTER THAN DGs BEST ———-I CAN ENVISION A GOOD DEFENSIVE EFFORT BY BOTH HARDEN / SCHROEDER BECAUSE OF THEIR HUNGER/ MOTIVATION FOR PLAYOFFS SUCCESS AND ALSO TO ERASE THE IMAGES OF “ PLAY OFF LOSERS “
right. this might be wishful thinking, but this is Hardin’s shot at getting out of the “career disappointment” category, and he goes all in to win.
It has not happened officially yet, but the Cavs do intend to sign Tomlin to a standard deal, per Fedor.
https://hoopswire.com/cavs-to-sign-naeqwan-tomlin-to-standard-contract/
So:
PG: Schröder, CPJ
Combo: Harden: PG/SG, Mitchell: SG/PG, Proctor
SG: Merrill, Ellis
Wing: Tyson, Strus
Forward: Wade, Tomlin, Enaruna (2W)
PF/C: Mobley, LNJ
C: Allen, Bryant
IDK on Miller (2W). He is SG/Wing height but listed some places as a PF. I an clueless there.
1 open 2 way spot. I think Omier or a recently waived guy might be a good candidate.
Last year?
1. J. Allen, Cle 0.2385
2. E. Mobley, Cle 0.2324
3. Giannis, Mil 0.2317
4. Mitchell, Cle 0.2280
5. SGA, OKC 0.2219
Other Cavs: Strus (0.176), Merrill (.0130) Harden (0.122), Garland (0.088).
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_per_48_top_10_p.html
Career PO Win Shares/48:
Garland 0.052
Harden 0.170
The point on the Harden/Garland axis is that Harden’s struggles, especially in elimination games, though real, are a bit overstated. But his WORST PO performances are still better than DGs BEST ones, by a signicicant margin. On average, 3x better.
The Harden/DG swap is an upgrade, in the present. By a significant margin. Regular & post season.
And while the team as a whole fell short vs Indiana, our overall PO performance, particularly the remaining 3 of the Core 4, was pretty darn good.
Yes, blowing Miami’s doors off in Round 1 probably skews the numbers some. But guys like Jerome (who was fantastic vs Miami & terrible vs Indy) finished at 0.111 WS/48 forcthe entire POs. JA, Mobes, & Spida were DOUBLE that.
I was SHOCKED to see 3 Cavs in the top 4. We lost. But we also fought darn hard shorthanded and gimpy. Fighting to hold on that last game was brutal. But we did have some guys that performed REALLY well in last year’s POs.
Allen led the league in WS/48 in the POs. Mobley 2nd. And a gimpy Mitchell 4th. Strus at a robust 0.176. And, in VERY limited minutes, Porter (0.202) and Tyson (0.406).
Have some hope. This train is leaving the station, methinks. Climb on board.
There are a lot of new guys to integrate. 2 PGs who are high usage. Mobley & Strus are still injured.
There will be bumps and clunky quarters as KA and everyone tries to figure out how to fit together & play together.
But we sit 4th, 3 games out of 2nd in the loss column. We have eon 7 of 8 and 8 of the last 10.
The next stretch of games around the ASG is pretty favorable: at Sac, at Den, Wash, Brk. A challenging 10 games stretch after that, but the final 16 are SOFT.
Just for gits & shiggles:
Win Shares Per/48: Playoffs, Career
1. Michael Jordan 0.2553
2. George Mikan 0.2541
3. LeBron James 0.2368
4. Nikola Jokic 0.2298
————
Magic 7th, West 8th, Wilt 9th, Duncan 11th, Kareem 14th, Shai 15th, Giannis 17th, Dream 19th, Dirk 20th, Curry 23rd, KD 24th, Shaq 25th, Oscar 30th, Russell 31, Dr. J 35th, Bird 41st.
Harden? 46th. Kobe 62nd. Wade 64th. Kyrie 71st. Brunson 78th. Luka 87th. Tatum 95th. Mailman 102nd.
Mitchell? 202nd. List only goes to 250.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/ws_per_48_career_p.html
Bear with me, but how is Harden as a screener? Mobley/Harden inverted pick and roll sounds mean.
I think the answer is “fine as a screener. Not great as a roller or popper.” I’d defer to Ben werth for the answer.
Hardens never been great about moving off ball according to Ben’s video.
Giving thanks that Jarrett Allen still rocks the wine and gold. (Whew!)
Same.
He should kill it. And Mobley hopefully gets to play a little freer and his development comes naturally vs the force feeding earlier where it was like “score 25 ppg or the franchise is screwed”
…and we’re done. Cam Thomas waived. Chris Boucher waived.
I’ll admit to some interest in Boucher in the off-season as a chaep big.
This was a haul for Zubac
Siakam about to get a season ending injury
Armchair psychiatrist speculation but I do think the trade was Mitchell motivated. He’s complained after playoff losses that this team is not serious enough. I think that starts with DG who has always come off very happy go lucky. I think it was less about on court fit than it was about personality fit. Just basing this off of multiple reports that Mitchell gave his approval of Harden. I believe Donovan genuinely likes DG but saw enough flaws to want a change up.
Absolutely based on Spida’s window and happiness.
Maybe an apron ducking move (I think Strus for Fontecchio would work if you wanted) but please be done otherwise
go schroder.. nice pickup.. with ellis.. this will be an A++++ transaction.. getting rid of the very weak and pathetic hunter.. good job koby
Nets waive Highsmith to make room for Agbaji.
Thought Highsmith looked good in Miami, but am wary of taking guys from there as that Spo/Riley magic does not always travel.
He’s had one not awful year out of four and even then he was below replacement. He doesn’t do anything well. He shoots “ok.” I think he’s done in the Association.
Reports are now that the Cava are OUT in Cam Thomas. Whew!
Knicks get Alvarado from the Pels. That is a sneaky good move.
Nah. Just an innings eater for Deuce. Kolek much better
Pete Nance had 16 for the Bucks in their last game. 4 triples.
The Charge is seriously doing something right.
Giannis staying put. Bucks will seek to make itger trades.
They have traded Coffey & Cole Anthony to Phoenix for Nick Richards & Nigel Hayes-Davis.
Are there enough 2nd round picks on earth for someone to take Kuzma?
Maybe in a Ja Morant deal?
Bad contracts for Ja and pray you win the lottery. I don’t hate it but I don’t see a likelihood of success to the level Giannis wants but you can sell Ja and Boozer and pieces
Desperate times in Milwaukee. Has been every since Middleton got hurt and the Jrue for Dame disaster.
It’s the dark side of the championship or bust mentality
👍👍👍👍👍 NATE ON SCHROEDER——WITH A NEW SYSTEM/ TEAM—- THOUGHT HIS PLAY WAS GOOD/ PROMISE OF THINGS TO COME 👍🏀💪
Getting out of Sactown should help both guys.
Or at least that is the hope.
He was fine. He’s a good bench point guard when given a defined role.
I think Milwaukee is hoping they pull a Dallas & win the lotto (top 2 might work) & convince Giannis to stay.
Lakers get some shooting, nab Kennard from Hawks for Vincent & a 2nd.
I think all the big ones are done. My guess would be Giannis & Morant stay put. Zubac could get moved.
We have 5 guys I’d say are easily plus defenders: CPJ, Ellis, Wade, Mobley, & Allen.
Tomlin is close and should get there with more experience and know how. He is intense & disruptive as it is.
Tyson & Strus are pretty good as well. And Schröder is at least annoying, if undersized.
Bryant & LNJ are passable, and Merrill tries hard Though lack of positionsl size hurts all 3.
I would comfortably add Sam and Max to that list. Sam’s defensive numbers aren’t as good this year as last, but a lot of that has been lienup construction with him having to log heavy minutes at the 3. He does well to hang in there, but is great guarding 2s. Max is a superb team defender and his stats last year painted him as elite as well. We shall see. Tyson, Tomlin, and Harden are all on the edge of good depending on what they are being asked to do, but Tyson and Tomlin are more annoying than they… Read more »
How would you feel about max and Nance or Bryant for Bobby Portis?
All in on this idea. Portis is what we need.
And it’s been noted that Harden is actually a plus post defender and rebounder, to the point that he even took the Jokic assignment in postseason. So it’s possible with lineups and scheme to try to limit him being exposed to what he doesn’t do well (stay in front of quick ball handlers)
Wolves trade for Dosunmu. Always liked him. Dillingham, L. Miller + 4 2nds.
Chicago had so many guards.
Not a PG, though.
CP3 isn’t spending his last year in Toronto. Book it.
They’ve already said as much. They’re not requiring him to report. They’ll either re-trade him or waive him after deadline.
He may be done.
Maybe the Pels for old time’s sake
That’d be fun. I hope next year is Lebron’s last. Want to see him walk away before they have to drag him away (though there’s nobility in that too).
It depends on how much he has left.
I mean, if he becomes a 20-25 minute a night guy, and plays in, say, 55 games, doesn’t start regularly, he might have some juice come spring. And maybe he can last 2 years instead of 1.
But as a starter, 30+ min a night guy? I don’t think that is wise.
It’s gonna be funky and weird at times. But not this time.
Schroder with a low key really rough night, but it doesn’t matter at all.
I hope we keep Strus and Allen.
Schröder was fine. One more of those threes goes in and we’re talking about what a great game he had.
I loved his pace. He constantly pushes the ball, and knows when to pull it out if nothing is there.
One of my primary worries with Harden is that he walks the ball up too frequently. Helpfully, he will allow the coach to get him moving in a way he doesn’t love.
He would have loved playing for J.B. then. Man those days drove me nuts, with DG walking it up. Hope that’s not what we’re in store for.
Yes, that is the difference between 20 and 40 percent and true of every player
52 BENCH PTS 👍🏀💪—- IF LNJ REGAINS HIS FORM—-LOOK OUT
Nice scenes with the team talking with DG. I’m not crying, you’re crying.
yeah it was cool to see they still have camaraderie
Ty Jerome does it again. Wow!
Great to see. Love the dude. Nearly bought his jersey.
If he would not have shat the bed so bad in Rd2 last year, on O & D, I think Dan would have paid him.
Cavs came out with a lot of energy tonight.
They smell blood in the water, ITS WINNING TIME
HELD CLIPS TO 91 THATS CHAMPIONSHIP DEFENSE
Forced 24 turnovers, shot 18 more shots
All 13 Cavs have scored now
MY GOD GARBAGE TIME FOR HALF THE FOURTH QUARTER LOL
LARRY NANCE HITTING CONTESTED THREES WE WINNING THE CHIP
Would love to see LNJ start to play a bit better. With Mobley/Strus out, there are some frontcourt minutes available.
HAD A FEELING SCHROEDER WAS READY TO “ BUST LOOSE”. 👍🏀💪
Schroder bringing that Ty Jerome swag!
HES A DAWG BRING BACK THE #JUNKYARDDAWGCHAIN
It’s gotta be rough being Garland watching your boys beat up your new team.
He’s got nearly a quarter billy and lives in LA now, he’s fine
Yeah he’s good I think.
HARDEN WAS CARRYING THESE BUMS LMFAOOOOOOO
WE GOT DEFENSIVE DEMONS NOW #NOSHITTERS
CPJ JACKING TRANSITION THREES THAT’S DAGGER
NO PRISONERS.
#LETEMKNOW
UMLAUT THANK YOU FOR SANDBAGGING YOUR SEASON
The Kings are so dumb.
LMFAOOOOOOO we just talked about this on the pod so funny
I think that there is real value to be had in getting players from teams that aren’t winning. Players tend to play their worst.
Older vets agreed.