Recap: Cavs 88, Boston 87
2012-01-30
Due to a scheduling snafu at Cavs:the Blog, this will be a short re-cap.
To me, this win officially marks the start of legitimately talking about the Cavs making the playoffs this year. The Cavs are currently tied for the 8th seed in the East, coming off of victories against two of their likely competitors for that spot. Cleveland, Boston, New York, Milwaukee, and Toronto appear destined to duke-it-out for the privelege of being the two least-bad eastern conference teams. Ten of the Cavs’ next twelve games are at home, including one each against Boston and Milwaukee. That stretch also features home games against Sacremento, Detroit and New Orleans; assuming the big three (Irving, Varejao and Jamison) are healthy, it’s realistic for the Cavs to win five or six more games by the all-star break and hit the half-way point looking at the #8 seed. I won’t delve into the pros and cons of being the #8 seed, except to say that nothing would be worse than being #9. Please finish #8 or #12. Really, if the Cavs are to make the playoffs, winning now is important. The sixteen games in 24 day stretch looms at the end of the season, and that will probably be ugly.
Really exciting game for Kyrie last night; having his dad in the stands makes for a great story line. 23 points on 75% true shooting, 6 assists to 3 turnovers. In the comments section of Friday’s game, I noted how Cavs fans were close to an epic “remember the time that Kyrie…” moment. Well, that sentiment was two days off. Six points and an assist in the final four minutes to spearhead an improbable come from behind victory at the Boston Garden; that’s fun stuff from a 19 year old. Games and moments like this will really resonate with ROY voters.
Varejao notched a season high with 18 points. Alonzo Gee matched his second-best with 14 points to go with 4 steals and another very nice defensive effort against an elite eastern conference wing. For those keeping score at home, in one week, the Cavs held Lebron, Carmelo and Paul Pierce to 17 points per game on 44% field goal shooting. Not too shabby against that crew. There was even a Mychel Thompson appearance…and he played a mistake free 12 minutes as the Cavs outscored the Celtics by 9 points.
I’m not going to dwell on any negatives. The next four games are a tough stretch before the long homestand, let’s see if the Cavs can acquit themselves well.
kevin, they both have a solid chance to win something in the next 5 years. I would take realistic hope at a championship in 4 of the next 8 years over being a 6-8 seed every year for the next 8. I really think that’s why I’m hoping for losses when I see the schedule. Honestly Tristan’s never going to be a top 4 player on a championship team hitting sub 50% of FT’s. Hes a total liability in any close games. Sure he could improve, but everyone’s always says that about big defensive forces like him and shaq and… Read more »
The QB list was incredible. I actually put Couch first. And I think I made the right choice. Who is better than him? DA had the best sing season but…. he is DA! I was torn between Holcomb, Dilfer and Colt in the 2 slot. Wow. That is just depressing. Wow.
Until OKC or Chicago win anything, I don’t think we should aspire to follow either “model,” if you can even call them models.
I’m looking forward to finding out what the Cavs can get for Jamison, and when they will trade him. If we trade him (and sessions?) soon, this season could quickly take a turn for the mid-lottery, especially if the main haul is in the form of a draft pick(s). Hopefully, when we do draft, we can get a solid spot up shooter (although we’re already a surprisingly good three point shooting team) or a solid wing defender, since that seems to be a prerequisite to beating any elite teams. Also, sorry that my paragraph was confusing in multiple ways; i’m… Read more »
OKC is a good model to follow, but let’s not forget that they got incredibly lucky. 1. Portland drafts Oden, which was a mistake (as the sports guy said at the time, “you can’t pass up a 6’11” shooting guard who can score from anywhere on the floor for a center with one leg longer than the other who looks and walks like he’s 55″ (paraphrasing). 2. Memphis absolutely blows a draft pick on Hasheem Thabeet, the worst top 5 pick since Morrison. No one in that draft till DeRozen fit OKC better than Harden. 3. Miami and Memphis whiff… Read more »
baconisgood, I agree with alot of what you say. I also agree with alot of what others say. As long as noone gets hurt, I am officially fine with whatever direction this season takes from here on out. The draft can be a crap shoot. Higher picks are better than lower picks. Both things are true. I’m not sure the Bulls reflect a plan to follow, but almost a word of caution for all of us. It really goes to show how fortunate the Thunder were (and possibly how fortunate the Cavs are to have snagged a “star” on their… Read more »
Robinson was the oldest rookie of the year, not the oldest rookie, of course
Here’s a list of all rookies of the year with PER over 20 since the 1951-52 season: Wilt Chamberlain, 28.0 Spencer Haywood, 28.0 Artis Gilmore, 26.6 Walt Bellamy, 26.3 David Robinson, 26.3 Oscar Robertson, 25.9 Michael Jordan, 25.8 Dan Issel, 25.0 Bob Pettit, 24.4 Elgin Baylor, 23.6 Shaquille O’Neal, 22.9 Kyrie Irving, 22.9* Terry Cummings, 22.8 Ray Felix, 22.7 Tim Duncan, 22.6 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 22.5 Mel Daniels, 22.4 Maurice Stokes, 22.1 Walter Davis, 22.1 Chris Paul, 22.1 Blake Griffin, 21.9 Alvan Adams, 21.7 Chris Webber, 21.7 David Thompson, 21.1 Terry Dischinger, 20.8 Marvin Barnes, 20.8 Swen Nater, 20.6 Magic Johnson,… Read more »
Mallory- Chicago may look like a bunch of role players but Deng, Noah and Brewer were the h7th, 9th and 14th picks in their respective drafts. In terms of minutes played only Boozer wasn’t a top 15 pick out of their top 5 so far this season. Quality role players are very different from regular role players and guys like Deng and Noah are closer to all-stars than average players when you factor in their D. Everyone else- Not making the playoffs means a shot at the lottery- remember thats how we got Kyrie in the first place. The difference… Read more »
Bryan, I totally agree that the problem with the wings is that all of them are raw and it will take good scouting to separate the one or two who will become stars from the rest, most of whom will become nothing more than solid role players. My list of wing players who will probably be gone on the first eighteen picks is Jeremy Lamb, Harrison Barnes, Kidd-Gilchrist, Bradley Beal, Quincy Miller, Terrence Ross, Austin Rivers. None of them are polished yet and sad to say probably some may have already peaked. Miller, Ross and Rivers could all be available… Read more »
I agree with Mallory 100%. People seem to be greatly over-estimating the likelihood of the OKC outcome. For every OKC, there is Sacto, Wash, Old Clippers, Charlotte, etc.
It also seems like a lot of the coveted “wing” players in this year’s draft that are likely to be selected between 5 and 15 range are young, raw players with lots of upside, but large holes in their game and corresponding downsides (e.g. Gilchrist, Perry Jones, and Quincey Miller) What wing player do people think will be available at 10 but not at, say, 15?
Exactly right Mallory. A misconception about The OKC model is that they built their team via their early lottery picks exclusively. The majority of the players on their team are first round picks but only three are early first rounders. They have a large number of players taken after the first ten picks that not only compose their roster but contribute a lot to their success. Good evaluation at later picks coupled with pure chance from having a number of additional picks can build a team quite nicely. The most important thing for the Cavs was to get that first… Read more »
After rereading my previous comment, I have to apologize for any poor grammar used. I wrote it in haste, so I didn’t have a chance to edit. JAG – I agree that having a higher draft pick, and thus a larger pool of players to chose from, could be seen a luxury, but the question is whether or not that luxury outweighs the positives of making the playoffs. My real issue with most of the commentary on drafting high is I think we’re seeing what I like to call the OKC Paradigm. OKC did things the “smart” way – they… Read more »
Thanks for your input Mallory. I’m pretty confident that even at the highest place the Cavs could finish that they will be able to improve themselves via the draft. While I’m not worried about where they finish, I find talking about possible draft options is interesting. You actually help make my point about why probably getting a pick around 10-12 could be a decided advantage over picking 15th. There are six to eight wing players that are all considered to have high NBA potential. There are another four or so right behind them. None of these players have separated themselves… Read more »
Here’s the thing, Nupe – we already know we’re not a bottom dweller along the lines of Detroit, Washington, or Charlotte, New Orleans, or Sac. We’re probably better than Toronto, NJ, GS, Minnesota and Phoenix too (yes, we’ve had some issues against them, but that’s what happens with young teams.). That would make us, at best, the 11th worst team and at worst somewhere around 8. If you look at the history of the draft, just about as many top tier talents get drafted around the 7th spot as get drafted around the 11th spot. If we make the playoffs,… Read more »
As per the core, it might be time to send Tristan to the D-League for a while to work on his game. I am starting to agree with Austin Carr (horror of horrors). He should re-engineer his game to shoot with his right hand.
The Nupe, The Cavs contending for the playoffs means two things; the bottom of the East is really bad and Kyrie Irving & Anderson Varejao are really good. If the recap wasn’t written so hastily, I would have spent more time focusing on the second half of that sentence. Regardless of how many games the Cavs eventually win this year, it’s great to see that there is the makings of a “core”. That’s something that last season sorely missed. With the cap space and draft picks the Cavs have coming, they’re going to be able to put 5, 6, 7… Read more »
Nice write-up Kevin, also thanks for your continued use of stats. IF the Cavs make the playoffs, what does that really mean? Would it be a sign that the Cavs are truly a lot better than last year and the Kyrie and a healthy Andy really made the differnece? Maybe it would be more of an indication about how bad the teams in the East are. Making the playoffs could mean we re on the right path and just a player away from being a contender (not necessarily a favorite), or it could indicate that we played ourseleves out of… Read more »
HoopsDogg, I followed up on your request, but unfortunately can’t provide positive results. Irving / Gee has not been beneficial for either player yet…for now, let’s chalk it up to small sample sizes. Both players were keepers last night. Based on data at basketballvalue.com, Irving and Gee have played 32 possessions together at 1 – 2, and the Cavs have been outscored 29 – 48. With Gee at the 3, the Cavs have been solid with Parker at the 2. In 45 minutes, the Cavs o-rating is 106 while their d-rating is 97. With Gibson or Sessions at the 2,… Read more »
I’d love to see more of Gee’s lineup stats with Irving. My guess would be that Kyrie really helps open up the floor for Gee’s attack game, as opposed to Sessions, where defenders can just go under the pick all the time, and sag off when Ramon doesn’t have the ball. Plus, at the 2 he can post up every guard, but still play them on defense. The only thing stopping Gee right now is his indecisiveness and lack of aggression on offense. If you could combine Gee and Jamison’s shot selection, you’d have the perfect balance.
HoopsDogg,
I probably should have referred to Gee as the third member of the Cavs big three. That’s an even better effect than Jamison. Besides Irving, he has definitely been the pleasant surprise of the season and looks like a keeper. In my recent Destination 2013 piece, a long-term thought was the idea of Gee starting next to a scoring wing, while leaving a better offensive wing to help out the second unit. I NEVER would have thought that a month ago. If he could just cut down on his turnovers…
Depends on the year, Mallory. I think that when stars “fall” like Paul Pierce, Danny Granger, or Ty Lawson (all well regarded players who were taken later than expected), it all depends on who’s drafting, and how deep the draft is. Obviously the Celtics were very lucky to get Pierce at 12, but Granger and Lawson fell to much later in the teens. The only thing that can be said is, the higher you draft, the better your odds. Anyway, HOW ABOUT THEM CAVS!? What a comeback. Best game of the year. I honestly thought Scott had waited too long… Read more »
“in one week, the Cavs held Lebron, Carmelo and Paul Pierce to 17 points per game on 44% field goal shooting”
Wow, love that stat. Nice write-up.
Does anyone want to trade for Jamison? Been trying to work out a situation on the trade machine for the past week, can’t figure one out that makes sense.
All this debate about draft position becomes irrelevant if the Cavs do indeed trade Jamison and Sessions. If that does happen (and I believe it will), the Cavs will probably start losing games. As much as that would suck, it’s probably best long term.
Ride the wave, the team will finish where they will finish. I would rather see Kryie start out his career on a decent team and build from there, than have him slave away on a crappy team for the first 3 or 4 years of his NBA career. Let Chris Grant and Big Z worry about getting the talent. CG is doing a great job so far..
JAG – the question is, do you really think the difference between the 12th pick and the 15th pick is that huge? I think when you get to that level, it becomes less about supposed talent level and more about an individual team’s evaluation of a player. Basically the plus of being a playoff team probably outweighs two or three draft spots. I don’t know why everyone is demanding we get some young building blocks so high. Look at the bulls – they have Rose and a bunch of role players (plus boozer, who signed with them for more than… Read more »
I didn’t say “dread”, but hypothetically speaking, let’s say that Cleveland, New York, Toronto and New Jersey all win 26 – 28 games (that’s what John Hollinger’s playoff predictor shows today). Golden State also wins 26 games. The worst of those teams gets the 7th pick. The best the 11th pick.
I’m rooting for Cavs success, but if two options were 28 wins and #11 pick or 26 wins and #7 pick, the option to choose would be pretty clear to me.
Good win for the Cavs. The opportunity to see Irving come through as a closer was priceless.
I’m not sure why you would dread just missing the playoffs, other than the heartbreak. Finishing with the 9th best record as opposed to making the playoffs, usually means a jump of 3-4 places in the draft lottery. Typically the first 2 or 3 West teams that don’t make the playoff have better records than the first few teams from the East that miss.