Patience, Reasons and Excuses
2012-12-22
I want to expand slightly on this theme of the last twenty-four hours. Clearly hope remains that the root causes of the discussion (long losing streaks, runaway home losses, horrid offense & defense) disappear. Like tonight, or Wednesday…just sometime near term. If not though, it is a valid time to start asking hard questions about the State of the Team, lest anything sneak up on us.
PATIENCE is definitely a virtue, and it is warranted during this early season. Many REASONS exist for Cleveland’s 5 wins. Their schedule has been grueling; after tonight, 29 games exceed all but one team, and also 17 roadies are only outpaced by one squad. They are young; weighted by minutes played, their average age is 24.8 years. Their experience together is ridiculously limited; new arrivals have played 31% of the team’s minutes. On the entire team, entering this season, only the pairs of Gibson & Varejao and Tristan & Gee have logged more than 1000 on-court minutes together. Isn’t that crazy? Those are the only combos with more than twenty full games worth of experience together. Somewhat schedule related, the injury bug has hit; Kyrie missed eleven games and Dion sat for eight. The team practices PATIENCE, with C.J. Miles serving as the most flashy free agent signing of the past three years. The PATIENCE is prudent, as the team possesses the best cap flexibility in the league; there is not one guaranteed contract for 2014 – 2015. Their current payroll sits at $47.8 million, the second lowest in the NBA, and certainly another REASON for their struggles.
Recently though, I have contemplated the fine line between patience & reasons, and EXCUSES. With all the REASONS outlined above, it is easy to rationalize the team’s struggles. I have done it all season and consider it completely appropriate. But, when do we expect the switch-to-flip? When is it no longer acceptable to rationalize the Cavs, with all their starters healthy, at home, losing by fourteen to the 6-and-19 Raptors who are missing two starters? At what point in the re-build are six game losing streaks, including four double-digit losses, not acceptable? When do the answers become EXCUSES and not REASONS?
For me, the answer is now, or more precisely, December 26th. Granted, it’s not time to expect the team to win three-quarters of their games, but putting 25 wins on my Christmas list doesn’t seem like much. For me, a 19-win season certainly crosses a line. This team has talent. The point guard is an offensive wunderkind. The other guards are the #4 pick in this year’s draft and a veteran 41% three point shooter. The front-court features: the league leader in rebounds per game and rebound rate; the #4 pick from 2011; and a polished rookie, a four-year college player serving as the reigning ACC POY. Available wings include an eight-year veteran with a career PER over 12; a 6’ – 9” guy with 36% success shooting from deep; and an athletic dunk machine, also with career PER of 12. Not spectacular, but all definitely NBA players.
Add it all up, and while playoffs aren’t in the cards, that is not a 19 win team. The schedule is about to become a lot more forgiving. If the team does not start producing more wins, it will result from one of a few things. Maybe injuries ravage the team in 2013*. That will be easy to see and understand. The other options essentially amount to the team not making the most of what it has. Either the youngsters are not developing as individuals, the team is not buying into / learning the system, or the system just isn’t very good. Any of these outcomes is a problem.
Obviously, I hope to see this turnaround. I really, really like this team and this sport. Certainly ping-pong balls are important, but even with an up-tick in wins, decent lottery odds remain. Over the last five full NBA seasons, twenty-five wins typically nets about the fifth-worst record in the league. Based on current standings, 25 wins projects to still leave Cleveland with a top-five pick.
It’s time to expect more from the franchise, before REASONS morph into EXCUSES.
*While there have been injuries in 2012, I do not consider the team to have been ‘ravaged’ by injuries. Combined, the starters played in 84% of the possible games. Zeller, Miles, Gibson and Casspi have been available at a similar frequency.
co-sign what Carter said. I have said this in a few different forums, but you essentially cant ask a team that gives serious minutes to 4 players in their first or second year, and Daniel Gibson, and CJ Miles, to be good defensively. It just will almost never work. They don’t learn defense in college. Thompson had Barnes at Texas who cannot develop talent. Kyrie played 11 games in college. Waiters had a coach who taught him things that are hurting his transition defensively. Zeller needs an NBA offseason to bulk up, and doesn’t have a wingspan that is helpful… Read more »
OKC’s record in Durant’s 2nd year and Westbrook’s first year was? I mean, this is Year Two of a effin rebuild! Jesus, if you guys cannot see the development of TT, then you know nothing about basketball. If you do not see the Wade-isms of Dion and his ability to pass at an elite level, then you know nothing about basketball. The Cavs have the SINGLE MOST FLEXIBLE FINANCIAL SITUATION IN THE LEAGUE, BY DESIGN. If you cannot see how important that is in allowing the Cavs to be in on nearly any trade, then you know nothing about the… Read more »
Kevin Hetrick is the best thing that could have happened to this blog post-Krolik. Enjoy him while you can, Cavs fans. I don’t think he’ll be here forever. (Ie: He’s going to get a really good job.)
That was a very well-balanced article. A lot different than some of the hand-wringing of late. I am curious to see some of the following trends: 1. Tristan’s progression. So much angst sometimes for someone who is EXTREMELY young. I think we are beginning to see Tristan make some significant progress. I’d like to see that trend continue through the end of the year. 2. Dion’s progression. He has had his ups and downs to be sure but what is refreshing is his overall determination on defense. He just needs time and I see him becoming a solid player. I… Read more »
Boogie Cousins suspended indefinitely by Sacramento. Is he a team killer or a supremely talented guy stuck in a terrible situation. I’d at least call the Kings on the horn to see where they are at with moving him.
I still see this as year two of the rebuild not year three. After Lebron left they didn’t just have to replace the molding and throw on another coat of paint. They had to remove the drywall and rewire the entire house. 2010 was the deconstruction season. I just want to see improvement from the kids in the third trimester of the season. I don’t think there is a “win quota” for this team. We compare this rebuild to OKC because it’s the closest they’ve mirrored, but each situation is different. Too many teams have freaked out and blow things… Read more »
Hear, hear! Thanks for echoing my thoughts from the other day KH.
Jim,
Thanks for commenting.
Ultimately this is something that Tom, Nate, and Mallory bring up much more often, and more capably than me, but typically spread across recaps, comments, etc. You had a good comment along these lines the other day. I just wanted to bring the thoughts to the forefront, in a concise, themed article.
Then of course there is also that fine line between reason and paranoia. Don’t expect to to be able to project a definitive time frame on when to expect to see concrete results. There are too many variables to that equation. The best a team can do, is prepare for as many contingincies as possible. Grant has a handle on that. Varaibles are not excuses, they are facts of life, that need to be acted upon at the appropriate time. You can’t determine the appropriate action(s) to take until all the facts are in. Being prepared is reasonable. Once that… Read more »
JAG,
To me, a lot of facts are coming in. The Cavs are 45 and 131 during Scott’s reign. They are actually winning at a worse pace this season than the 19 and 63 record of the 26 straight losses, post-Lebron season. I know this is a major re-build, but it’s time for an inkling of improvement. If that doesn’t happen soon, those are more facts that are in. I’m surprised that some people disagree with the statement, “if the Cavs do not start showing improvement soon, then Byron Scott is on the hot seat”.
And I don’t know what any of that has to do with paranoia.
It’s been said before, but for this season my priorities look like player development>>>wins I would *gladly* take Tristan’s development and the apparently non-bust status of Waiters and Zeller over fringe playoff contention. In fact, given that our youngsters are still playing well, I don’t mind the losses one bit, because at the end of the day it just means a better pick. Sure, it’s painful while it’s happening, but at the end of the season, trust me, we’ll be glad that Varejao free throw rimmed out, and not particularly thrilled about the miraculous Gee tip in. Don’t get me… Read more »
Nathan,
I agree, but at some point, player development = wins. And a little bit of that should be expected this season. 25 wins isn’t fringe playoff status. It’s just not horrible. If the youngsters are in fact playing well and learning to function as a quality, cohesive offense and defense, they will win some games. If the team continues to look non-functional, despite having talent, I don’t know why people would not question the coaching.
Nathan,
There is reason to be excited about Kyrie, Dion, TT and Zeller, but there needs to be some, small recognizable progress, or the team is spinning their wheels through an extremely important developmental year.
I certainly think that 20 more wins this season can only be a good thing. Twelve more wins looks like the start of trouble.
What is the end of Byron’s leash for you?
My concern is that just as players are important, so are coaches. What if Byron Scott isn’t the right guy? At some point, you need to be proactive about decision making. Scott has a career 45% win percentage. He has lead two teams to 50+ wins in 13 seasons. He hasn’t coached a team past the second-round of the playoffs since his third season of coaching. I think the team needs to set clear expectations for quality of play and improvement…if those aren’t happening, try something else. There are 12 players and lots of flexibility there. There is only one… Read more »