Victor Oladipo: Historical Comparisons to the Possible #1 picks
2013-05-28
Finding similar age / production / size / athleticism profiles for Victor Oladipo proved a tad tougher than for Ben McLemore. High leaping youngsters that finish top-ten in the NCAA for True Shooting and top-fifty for Steal Percentage, don’t grow on trees. So I had to stretch a bit more than with the McLemore comparisons. The Hoosier junior’s line is:
6’ 3.25” barefoot, 6’ 9.25” wingspan, 213 lbs, 33” no-step, 10.69 agility, 3.25 sprint. Age is 21.1 at draft time. 122 orating on 23 usage. Shooting Percentages are 60 / 44 / 75. Location distribution of points scored is 62 / 18 / 20. dreb% = 13.9. stl% = 4.5. blk% = 2.8. ast% = 15.1. A:TO ratio = 0.9.
For the comparisons today, I came up with:
Player A was 6’ 3.5” barefoot, 6’ 9” wingspan, 214 lbs, 31.5” no-step, 10.70 agility, 3.19 sprint. Age of 22.4 at draft time (21.4 for reference season). 102 orating on 26 usage. 45 / 40 / 69. 58 / 19 / 23. dreb% = 13. stl% = 3.6. blk% = 2.5. ast% = 18.9. A:TO ratio = 1.0.
Player B did not have official pre-draft measurements. Unofficially 6’ 5” tall in shoes, and 200 lbs at that time. Age 22.7 at draft (reference season is age 21.7). 111 orating on 27 usage. 47 / 40 / 84. 50 / 33 / 17. dreb% = 12.8. asst% = 12.9. stl% = 2.8. blk% = 2.8. A:TO ratio = 0.7.
For size and athleticism, Oladipo and Player A are almost ridiculously mirror images of each other; Oladipo jumped slightly higher, while Player A ran a hair faster. Also, their scoring distribution, defensive contributions, and passing prove extremely similar. Where Oladipo separates himself is, while playing at four months younger, providing offensive efficiency easily besting his counterpart.
Player B relied on the three more than Oladipo and also was called upon to use a higher level of his team’s offense. He did score two-thirds of his points from inside the arc or at the line though, so he wasn’t overly reliant on an outside shot. As a shooting guard with excellent block and steal rates, solid shooting percentages, and limited passing ability, he matches Oladipo reasonably well.
Player A is Tony Allen, while Player B is Courtney Lee, who played the NCAA’s 210th toughest schedule in 2006 – 2007; Oladipo faced the fourteenth most difficult in 2013. I primarily included Lee for the sake of providing two comparables; at seven months younger and against a tougher slate, Oladipo bested him nearly across the board.
The key here is Allen, who seems like a cliche for what any athletic, slashing shooting guard can become. Except in this case, putting their stats and measurement side-by-side is almost unbelievably similar, with one key distinction. At a younger age though, Oladipo’s offensive output is strikingly more effective. If he projects as “Tony Allen, But Better On Offense”…that is definitely worth consideration for the top pick in a starless draft. TABBOO is a borderline all-star.
Before parting, let’s look at one more comparison.
Player C – 6’ 2.5” barefoot, 6’ 7.25” wingspan, 221 lbs. 116 orating on 26 usage. Age 20.6 at draft time. 48 / 36 / 73. 55 / 26 / 18. dreb% = 8.1. ast% = 21.2. stl% = 4.6. A:TO Ratio = 1.9. blk% = 1.5.
Similarly sized, this guy’s team relied on him more heavily on offense, where he produced admirably despite being six months younger. Three-quarters of his scoring came on two-pointers or at the line, vaguely reminiscent of Oladipo, and they both displayed a keen nose for steals. Player C rebounded and blocked shots on fewer occasions, but definitely created more offense for others. Who is it?
It’s Dion Waiters. How do D-Wait and V-Olad fit together on a team?
Well, if the Cavs were convinced that Oladipo had the highest probability for top-shelf NBA success…it can make sense to draft him. If an Irving, Waiters, Oladipo backcourt can coexist for eight minutes per game, the team could manage a distribution of Kyrie, 36 minutes; Waiters, 34 minutes; Oladipo, 34 minutes. Certainly in the short term, this would work; Dion would basically be the starting shooting guard and Kyrie’s back-up. If it isn’t the right mix in the longterm, but Dion and Victor excel, then they trade one. The team will be better off ensuring this pick succeeds, rather than selecting a lesser player for need.
Let’s talk about Porter and Noel before going too far down that road though. Until tomorrow.
@Veus – Draftin Noel is drafting for Talent. The number of #1 Pick Centers who bust is actually pretty small…and they were all giants.
@ Ben F
Problem is, only one player in this draft fits the criteria of helping the cavs win now and playing the 3 or the 5. That’s porter and I’m not necessarily convinced that he is the best pick. Too many busts happen when a team drafts for need rather than talent.
@Venus – Olapido doesn’t help us win now. All he does is either come off the bench or push Dion there. He does nothing for our hole at the 3 and 5. He does nothing to fix our atrocious interior defense. I’d love to have him on this team, but drafting him is a luxury.
@Ben Werth
The thing with Gee…he is valuable in limited minutes as instant defense. But when he’s asked to play 25+ MPG and take on a role in the offense…he’s too far out of his skill set and comfort zone.
Right now I would like to see them trade back with Washington and take Oladipo. I feel like we really need to take best player available, but at the same time we can’t swing and miss on a big man with injury questions (Noel, Len). I think Oladipo is the right mix of future potential and current production for where this team is now. It’s time to start winning games, not waiting for another big man to heal.
Nogueira had a 24 PER in the Spanish ACB this year as a 20-year old. That’s pretty solid.
At 19, or if the Cavs could package 31 and 33 and move into the last few picks of the first and get him, it’s worth a dice roll. I’ve written about this before though.
Great job everyone. Articles and posts like these are the reasons I read and post on this blog. Occasionally, we can get a bit sloppy on the site, but this thread has been one of the most coherent and reasonably thought that I have read. @Peter I’m am totally digging the trades, but am a bit afraid of Bennett. He reminds me a bit too much of Derrick Williams physically, and that hasn’t worked out so well. I don’t really think he can play the 3, but he isn’t a good enough shooter or creator to be a stretch or… Read more »
This is all dependent on the medical examination, which I believe is this week, if he checks out with a quality knees and just had one injury he will be back around thanksgiving, and released to play by christmas or around the all star break… being pessimistic 30 games remaining on the schedule. A really nice time to add an interior player, especially knowing Andy’s injury history He said he truthfully played at UK at 228 pounds, so the 206 number while current and troubling is not his playing weight. Ultimately i think he will settle around 240… the same… Read more »
JHill – Noel helps us over the next 3 years as he (and our other young guys) continue their development. You act as if what we saw this year was everyone’s ceiling. You act as if we don’t win the championship this year, then we have failed.
I would say that the Thunder have built a very good team…who sucked for two years and then made continual improvements (playoffs, 2nd round, Finals, Wesbrook injury) over a few years.
And why do you assume that Kyrie, Thompson and Noel are all gone? Are you really even a Cavs fan?
Nate, you are also describing Noel.
I still fail to see how Noel even helps us over the next 3 years I thought the time was now. If we are still fighting for the 8 seed in 3 years Kyrie and Thompson might as well be gone, and on the off chance Noel actually develops into something amazing the next year he pulls a Dwight and leaves. I know the draft is fun, but I want to be like Spurs fans, they don’t even have to care about who Nerlens Noel is.
Go read the Draftexpress profile on Bebe, KJ. He’s a fine prospect but he can’t score more than five feet from the basket, and has terrible lower body strength. He’s no less of a project that any other big man in this draft.
I don’t see Noel as good a leaper as say, Howard. I think he s a quick leaper, yes but not an outstanding leaper. Wiggins is an OUTSTANDING in-game leaper. Besides, that leaping Noel was doing was pre-injury to be fair. I am simply pointing out is that if we wee able to leave out our biases, the fact if the matter is that the difference between Noel, likely to go first, and Bebe, likely to go in the lowest part of the 1st round, is not very pronounced at all. Furthermore, none of you have address how Bebe has… Read more »
Oladipo’s shooting numbers resemble few others. He has the highest field goal percentage by a guard since 1996-1997.
One Player whose shooting numbers Oladipo’s compare to?
1982-83 FG% .535 3PT% .447 FT% .737 PPG 20.0 RPG 5.5 SPG 2.2 BLK .8 AST 1.6 TOV 2.1
http://dimemag.com/2013/05/nba-draft-could-victor-oladipo-be-the-next-michael-jordan-why-not/
@Adam…..Completely agree. I think people underestimate how explosive Noel is. The guy jumps gets off the ground effortlessly and seems like one of those rare players that seem to be capable of playing on a taller rim. I was surprised with what I saw in Nogueira (and why he isn’t listed with Gorbert and Deng) but the athleticism difference between he and Noel is glaring.
@j hill
Paul George is eligible for a max contract extension and he’s going to get one. He’ll never hit restricted free agency.
@grover13 Ben F hit it on the head. If you value Oladipo/Len only slightly less so than Nerlens Noel then you might be willing to trade down, grad Oladipo/Len and another asset(Harkless). This was just a possible trade scenario I was throwing out there. I honestly just want the Cavs to grad Nerlens and be done with it.
I just think the level of athleticism is completely different, I haven’t seen a ton of Bebe Draft Express, Youtube, but from what I have seen i believe he would test slightly better on the combine drills then Gobert did, he seems to run hard but doesn’t look athletic when hes running, his crazy long arms make him look like he’s athletic when you look at his feet he barely leaves the ground, with Noel I would bet he would test better across the board then Cody Zeller When you see Noel Block a shot his high top is over… Read more »
Actually, there is a ton of similarities between the two, though Bebe is 21, which does enter the equation. I am sayin that what you see from Bebe in a tougher level of basketball than Noel played is remarkably similar to what I think Noel will do in the NBA: block shots, shoot a high percentage on limited shot attempts, be a good offensive rebounder but not a great defensive rebounder and get pushed around a lot by more physically mature/plain bigger post players.
@KJ if the game is played based on wingspan and standing reach then yes there is an argument, otherwise from what i’ve seen of him, there is no comparison
Even if the cavs Loved Noguiera, they could pick him up at 19 rather then waste the #1 Pick on him
@Adam – I was just trying to be polite. LOL @Kj – I’ll have to do some serious research on Noguiera then. I guess the only real question will come down to age and athleticism (if what you say is true). How old is Noguiera (because that does play a part in his upside) and how athletic does he play. (I don’t care entirely how well they do at the combine…because Harrison Barnes looked phenomenally athletic at the combine…but less so on the court. @grover13 – unless “YOUR GUY” is rated as high (or nearly as high” as the 2ND… Read more »
The REAL comparison to do is between Noel and Noguiera. They are nearly identical except Bebe has Noel in both wingspan and standing reach and has played arguably the tougher competition. Food for thought…
Ryan- In most cases, when you have the #1 pick, you have your eye on YOUR GUY. You won’t listen to any offers to the contrary. Everyone knows this. If you are advocating that Noel is YOUR GUY- but you are willing to entertain an offer to trade down one spot to pick up an additional player instead- then by default, the team knows that your claim of Noel being YOUR GUY is a false claim. That he’s not YOUR GUY. Therefore, you don’t intend to take him in the first place, and there is no need for the second… Read more »
@Ben F @Not Sure
“I doubt that Charlotte gives up #4 and MKG for Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute and the #15…let alone tossing in Ramon Sessions and Biyombo. ”
Rephrase… There is no way in Hell Charlotte does this trade they give up:
#4, MKG, Sessions, and Biyombo
for
Ilyasova, Luc Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee #15
There is absolutely nothing positive for them in that trade, they move down 11 spots in the draft, and trade two upside players and one average player for two average players
Kj – I’m firmly in the Nerlens Noel camp, LOL It’ll take some really bad news concerning the health of his knee for me to change my mind.
Not sure –
I doubt that Charlotte gives up #4 and MKG for Ilyasova, Mbah a Moute and the #15…let alone tossing in Ramon Sessions and Biyombo.
The Mavericks are looking to cut salary so that they can go hard after CP3/Dwight…so them taking on Miles, Zeller and Sessions isn’t likely to happen.
The Bucks might consider moving Sanders for Noel, Biyombo, a future 1st and Gee…but I think they’d probably rather just keep him and deal with a known entity (in a healthy Sanders) as opposed to an unknown in Noel.
Those of you who are now on the Victor O bandwagon, I encourage you to wait for the next 2 installments of Kevin’s series. I think you will have your mind changed…
grover13,
I’m operating under the assumption that if we stand pat at #1 we are taking Nerlens Noel. Why take someone else at #1 when we can trade down for that player and get another valuable asset?
I really like the Marion trade. I think we could get Larry Sanders in that too, and Oladipo. Bucks: Cavs #1, Bismack Biyombo, future Cavs pick, Alonzo Gee Cavs: Marion, Sanders, MKG, Charlotte #4, Mavs #13 Mavs: CJ Miles, Tyler Zeller, 2 second rounders- 1 this year and 1 future, Ramon Sessions Bobnets: Ilyasova, Luc Mbah a Moute, Milwaukee #15 At the #4, Cavs take Porter or Oladipo. At #13 take a center like Steven Adams, Dieng, Alex Len or Rudy Gobert, or Keresev, or even just the BPA. Then with our remaining #2, take Andre Roberson or eurostash Livio… Read more »
Ryan-
Why on EARTH would the Magic agree to give us Harkless to move up a slot and take Noel? They’ve got to know that if we even offered that deal, that we don’t want Noel in the first place, and they can just stand pat and take him at #2.
Also, If Oladipo is Tony Allen with better offense I would agree that is a borderline all-star talent. I would be open to the Cavs trading down a pick or two and taking him. On Reggie Bullock. I was interested in him as well based on his 3 and D potential, but his lack of explosiveness really worries me. Not sure if he would be able to defend guys at an NBA level I mentioned trading down to the Magic’s #2 pick if they are really interested in Nerlens Noel. We could scoop up Moe Harkless in this deal and… Read more »
US will have a gigantic advantage at PG regardless of Nash, but also the smallish lineup for the US
Paul/Irving, Harden/Westbrook, Durant, LeBron, Anthony Davis? I think would give real problems for Canada, but to be honest that team would give any team anywhere problems
Kevin,
Would it be possible to throw in Anthony Bennett in these posts? He might have the highest ceiling in the draft and it would be interesting to see who he compares to.
Adam – I’ve had conversations with some of my Canadian friends about just such a thing. I wouldn’t count on Nash in a player role…but with Wiggins on the team, you don’t really need a true PG anwyays. It would be awesome to see North America own the world in basketball. LOL
Kevin,
Great posts. Just for a “control”, I was wondering if you could consider performing this exercise with two “known” quantities, such as Kyrie and maybe Jeremy Lamb or any other successful-unsuccessful pick pairings. I personally think it would be informative as it relates to this series of posts.
Keep up the great work.
Off topic… But anybody else think the Canadian National Team is going to be beastly in the next couple of years
PG: Steve Nash, Myck Kabongo, Andy Rautins
SG: Andrew Wiggins, Nik Stauskas
SF: Anthony Bennett, Kyle Wiltjer
PF: Tristan Thompson, Andrew Nicholson
C: Kelly Olynyk, Joel Anthony
And yes I know Nash probably wont play for them, but him running the break with Wiggins, Bennett, Thompson, and Olynyk sounds really fun
I still prefer Nerlens, but I’d be ok with taking Oladipo. Being able to switch him in for defense in close games would be useful, and he defends and shoots well enough to make 3-guard work with Kyrie and Dion.
He seems like the surest thing in the draft, but its hard to see him as a #1 overall pick.
J Hill – I think that while Lebron is Target A, I seriously doubt that Chris Grant is putting all of his eggs in that basket. I can easily see him going for a Granger/Deng as a secondary option early on. I can see us going hard for a Paul George.
Of course, a lot of this also depends on the upcoming draft, the upcoming FA…and (of course) player development. If Waiters, Kyrie or Dion are topped out already, then we have bigger holes than we think at their respective positions.
@Cory Hugey I agree that Chris needs to get this draft right, that’s why I think he should just go with one of the safer picks. I think that he is a great GM that’s why I don’t want to see him screw it up and get fired, (Everyone makes mistakes, but in this league just one can get you fired even though you saw him just make 3 great draft decisions.) I have a question, if we don’t get LBJ next year, do we then attempt to fight Indiana over Paul George? There are some big names in that… Read more »
If Bennett can handle the 3…then I’d be ecstatic with that. I really need to get down to researching the guy so that I’m not just regurgitating others opinions. LOL
I have a sneaking suspicion that the Cavs walk away from this draft with bother Nerlens Noel and Anthony Bennett. They will be the only two picks we end up with in this draft, and we trade a future 1st rounder. But, I then walk away ecstatic.
Adam – I see a lot of love for Bullock (and for Saric as well.) Karasev is my guy because of his dribbling and passing though. I think that in a Mike Brown defense (and my belief in Nerlens Noel’s ability to change how people attack the paint) having great defenders on the wing isn’t nearly as important as having high BBIQ defenders on the wing…especially having guys who can create for themselves and for others. Kyrie is already a 40+% 3-pt shooter. Dion could potentially develop into a very good one (thinking 37-39% is a reasonable assumption). Karasev shows… Read more »
Peter – foot speed and lateral quickness are two different things though. Still, you make a good point. If he has the lateral quickness to play the 3, I would actually prefer him over Porter (though I’m still firmly in Nerlens court, LOL).
Love these articles, Player C has been fun both times
@Ben F – Agree with your changes, I don’t Love Karasev but he could be a deadly shooter… I really like Reggie Bullock for the Cavs; Better Size, Much Better Defender, Better Athlete, Same Shooter… Much less creative off the dribble and passing
Switch those two and thats my lineup…
Bennett is one of those guys that shocks you with his speed on the court, a guy his size shouldn’t be able to move as quickly as he does. Is he going to beat Durant or Lebron in a foot race? No, but his 7’1 wingspan and his physicality will help him defend SF’s. I was shooting for versatility with this scenario, Waiters and Green can play the 1 & 2, Dudley can play the 2 & 3, Marion and Bennett can play the 3 & 4, Zeller, Varejao, & Gasol can all play the 4 & 5. Anyone could… Read more »
I don’t see that three guard rotation being a bad thing at all. You’ve got 96 minutes for your backcourt per game and if you tier Kyrie and Dion’s playing time a tad, one of them would always be on the court. When extensions are due you can trade the one who fits the longterm goal less. There is no greater value outside of the lottery than at center. 7 of of the 15 best win share percentages at center were drafted outside of the lottery. Centers get drastically overpaid after their first contract and cripple cap room. With that… Read more »
Love these articles Kevin. Look forward to the final two. Getting this pick right is the most important thing-period. Grant was always on the clock but how he handles the #1 pick this year will make him a genius or a goon and in the end it could cost him his job. If Noel is healthy longterm and can at the very least become an ELITE defensive player plus above the rim offensive potential-Grant will be fine and the selection will be justified. If Noel doesn’t hit that and is constantly injured the entire rebuild might not work. Natural improvement… Read more »
My only fear is that Anthony Bennett isn’t quick enough to play the 3 on D. I have not done much scouting at all (haven’t watched DX video, asked some of my buddies for their videos, etc…) So I really just don’t know…not necessarily questioning by what I’ve seen. I don’t particularly care for your #3 trade. I think I would rather have the #1 and go after Noel. With the #13, I would go after Karasev or Saric. This way, we’re better now. Also, with your lineup (even assuming your trade goes through as advertised), wouldn’t Gasol be our… Read more »
Decent ideas that leave 2014 open. I like Noel, but I’m scared. I wrote a 3k word article on why you shouldn’t draft centers in the lottery unless they are a sure thing and I still think they should take Noel if his knee checks out. Whoever goes 1st overall this year it will be a burden to have that draft selection next to your name. There is something about Bennet. I saw at least 10 UNLV games this year and I was fascinated with the thought of what Bennet could become. Could he really be Larry Johnson 2.0 with… Read more »
To Review: I’ve traded away Gee and Miles, and brought in Dudley, Gasol, and Marion. I’ve drafted Bennet, Adams, and Green, and have signed Ellington for the year. I have squeaked under the salary cap for 13/14, while only adding 1.25 mil and rookie contracts to the books for 14/15. Did I accomplish my goals?
The Roster:
PG: Kyrie Irving, Erick Green
SG: Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington
SF: Jared Dudley, Shawn Marion, Anthony Bennett
PF: Tristan Thompson, Pau Gasol
C: Anderson Varejao, Tyler Zeller, Steven Adams
Task 3: Resign Players/Sign FA’s
I extend the 3.1 mil qualifying offer to Ellington and pray Speights doesn’t pick up his option. I am sad to see Livingston go but glad to have let him earn a better contract. As far as FA’s I target Brandan Wright and Chase Budinger with contracts not exceeding 2mil/yr (more than double what they currently make). This is probably not enough to sign either, especially after giving Cuban 9 mil to play with, but I could care less. I’m thinking long term; it’s all about next summer’s FA class.
Task 2: The Draft
Pick #5: Anthony Bennett. (1, maybe 2, of the top 4 wings will fall to #5, most likely Oladipo or Bennett. I prefer Bennett, so that’s who falls in this case.)
Pick #13: Steven Adams. (We have the luxury of allowing him to develop behind Zeller and Andy for 2 yrs)
Pick #30: Erick Green. (He can back up both G positions and he gets buckets)
Task 1: Trades (These may seem ridiculous to you, but hey this is my fantasy you can come up with your own)
Trade #1: I trade the 19th, C.J. Miles, & and a way out of taxageddon to the Lakers for Pau Gasol (1yr ~19mil)
Trade #2: I trade the rights to the Kings pick, the 31st, the 33rd, & cap relief to the Mavs for the 13th & Shawn Marion (1yr ~9mil)
Trade #3: I trade the 1st pick & Alonzo Gee to the Suns for the 5th, the 30th, & Jared Dudley (2yrs 4.25mil/yr)
Well it’s a slow day and I feel like playing GM. I’m Chris Grant. I have 4 goals entering the upcoming season: 1. Build a team that can compete in the playoffs this year and beyond, 2. Add solid veterans to mentor the youngsters, 3. Add talent via the draft, and 4. Do all this without screwing up the cap space for 2014. Bear with me as I try to escape the comment monster. (Oh and I enjoyed the piece Kevin, but lets not make this about you, this is going to be pure self indulgence at its worst)
I love the NBA draft. It’s always a holiday for me. If there’s a casino in Vegas that does over/unders on where guys are selected I’m be in heaven. I actually like the lottery. There are a few things I would change. If they held the lottery an hour before the draft it would the greatest no actual game played that day event in sports. Considering that the lottery teams can only fall three spots behind their actual position it wouldn’t affect scouting too much. In franchise altering drafts it would be must see TV. In bad years it would… Read more »
Damnit just do them all, the anticipation is killing me.