Central Division Preview
2014-10-17
The Central division should be called the crippled division. At the start of the past two seasons, this division has appeared to have two of the top three teams in the East; however, injuries have kept that from actually happening. Derrick Rose missed the past two seasons and kept the Bulls from playing their best, while the Pacers played like the top team behind only Miami. The bad luck continues for the Central division entering the 2014-2015 season. During the offseason, Paul George injured his leg in a FIBA Team USA intrasquad scrimmage and is facing a long rehab and recovery process.
This year the Cavs will surely be the best team in the East, and the Bulls will probably be the second best. The Pacers could have been the third best. The central division looks to be one of the best in the league going into the future, and it will only continue to get better as Detroit and Milwaukee turn their franchises around with new coaches and young talent.
The Cavs will be left out of this preview, so that they can be dealt with properly in their own piece in the coming weeks.
Chicago Bulls
The Chicago Bulls overachieved last year when Derrick Rose suffered a season ending injury after just ten games. They struggled early on, but eventually, Tom Thibodeau got the team to play amazing defense and helped Joakim Noah to develop his offensive game to the point where he averaged 5.4 assists a game. Noah was number one among centers for assists, but the Bulls struggled to find offense all season without Derrick Rose creating his own shots and they burned out in the first round of the playoffs. This season the Bulls have added offensive fire power not only under the hoop but also at the three point line.
Additions: Pau Gasol (LA Lakers), Aaron Brooks (Denver), Nikola Mirotic (Real Madrid), Cameron Bairstow (Rookie), Doug McDermott (Rookie), E’Twuan Moore (Orlando)
Subtractions: Carlos Boozer (amnesty, LA Lakers), Ronnie Brewer, Lou Amundson (Cavs), Mike James, D.J. Augustin (Detroit), Greg Smith (Dallas)
Storylines:
1. Can Derrick Rose return to his MVP form? Rose has now missed two of the past three seasons. He looked physically explosive during the FIBA tournament; however, being physically gifted doesn’t always translate to
Best passing bigs in the league
basketball success. Rose needs to regain his ability to finish at the rim and learn to be a complete basketball player again. There’s a full season for him to do that, and I believe he will return to All-Star form.
2. The Bulls may have the best front court in the NBA. Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are two of five centers (Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, and Andy (of course he’s included)) who can run an offense out of the high post. Taj Gibson brings a workable post game and great defense to the paint. Furthermore, Nikola Mirotic is a big man who can shoot the ball and will give Derrick Rose so much space to drive the ball he’s going to explode with happiness. McDermott can space the floor too! Hopefully, Rose’s resulting happiness explosions won’t blow up any of his important body parts.
Cavs Championship threat level: 9.78
If any team is taking out the Cavs, it will be the Bulls, and the worst part is they will be giving the Cavs trouble even if Derrick Rose isn’t fully back to form. The Bulls defense is designed to cut shots in the paint and to limit threes. Unfortunately, those areas are the Cav’s favorite areas, and the Cavs have guys that may fall into the trap of taking the long twos the Bulls allow (Dion Waiters definitely will, and LeBron James has been known to take that shot too). Furthermore, Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol are both good enough on offense that the men defending them can’t sag off into the paint. This leaves the Cavs guards on their own if their man gets into the lane. If Derrick Rose gets healthy, who will cover him? Good luck, Kyrie. If LeBron goes onto Rose ,who will stop Dougy Buckets from blasting threes, or Nikola Mirotic from doing the same?
“I’ve been getting buckets since 1992.”
Prediction: 60-22 They have the best record in the East, but they lose to the Cavs in an all time great seven game series.
The Bulls went 48-34 last season. They have a better power forward in Pau Gasol, better shooters in Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic, and the only player besides LeBron James and Kevin Durant to win the MVP award in five years. Regardless of Rose’s health, this Bulls team is better and has more offensive fire power, which will surely add a few wins to their record. Derrick Rose pushes them to sixty wins; however, even if he is healthy, Noah will officially become the best player on the team.
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers started last season with one of the most terrifying defenses the league had ever seen. Roy Hibbert had verticality locked down, Paul George had his man locked down, and Lance Stephenson had the title of “the most polarizing player in the league” locked down. This led to success, and then it didn’t. There was no real reason why all the players and their offense became so average all of a sudden. There were rumors, of course. Indiana almost lost to the Wizards in the playoffs, but they rallied and made it to the conference finals. This year will be nothing like last year. Paul George had a horrific injury during the FIBA tournament and is going to be replaced by CJ Miles for the season. Stephenson left in the offseason, so the Pacers are also without their lead playmaker and rebounder.
Additions: Rodney Stuckey (Detroit), CJ Miles (Cleveland), Damjan Rudez (Europe), Shayne Whittington (Rookie)
Subtractions: Andrew Bynum, Lance Stephenson (Charlotte), Rasual Butler (Philadelphia), Evan Turner (Boston)
Storylines:
“I don’t commit fouls. I commit FOULS!”
1. Will CJ Miles continue improving his game? Since Paul George is out, Miles needs to be ready to play more minutes and improve his overall game this season. Scoring more will not be enough.
2. If the Pacers have any hope of making the playoffs, it is because their bigs are big and angry. Roy Hibbert needs to consistently turn people away from the hoop and make sure he remembers he’s super tall, so he can get rebounds and easy points around the basket. David West needs to scare people away from daring to score on the Pacers in general with his mean mugging. It wouldn’t hurt if Rudez and Luis Scola were a little mean too.
Cavs Championship threat level: 4
Paul George can lock down LeBron as well as anyone in the league, but he won’t be around this season. George was also the man that could probe the Cavs’ potentially poor defense. Hibbert and West can lock down the paint, but Kevin Love will drag them out and help make their protection less relevant. The Pacers defense just won’t be there this season, and they have lost their best offensive weapon.
Prediction: 37-45
The Pacers will miss the playoffs this year without their star player and Lance Stephenson.
Detroit Pistons
Last season the Pistons looked like a team assembled by someone looking soley at player ratings on a video game. Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings are great basketball players as far as what their skills can allow them to do. They just don’t use their skills in the right way. The lone highlight for the Pistons last season was Andre Drummond’s continued development as he played more minutes. He’s a walking double-double and protects the rim. However, the Pistons still ended the season with a record of 29-53. This season will be a completely new one. The Pistons hired Stan Van Gundy to coach and be president of their basketball operations, and they hope he can take a second team to the finals someday.
Additions: D.J. Augustin (Chicago), Caron Butler (Oklahoma City), Cartier Martin (Atlanta), Spencer Dinwiddie (Rookie), Jodie Meeks (LA Lakers)
Subtractions: Chauncey Billups (retirement), Rodney Stuckey (Indiana), Josh Harrellson (Chongqing Flying Dragons), Peyton Siva (Orlando), Charlie Villanueva (Dallas)
Storylines:
1. Drummond needs to be a better free throw shooter. He improved his free throw percentage by five percent to shoot 41% last season. If he continues improving at that rate, he’ll break 60% at the free throw line in his sixth pro season. That’s too late if he wants to become an offensive threat because everyone will just send him to the line if he starts to become a more effective low post scorer in the coming years. His ability to shoot free throws is going to shape how his career plays out. Can he become a premier scoring option?
2. Can Stan Van Gundy create another offensive system that works around a dominant and athletic big man like he did in Orlando?
3. Will Josh Smith stop shooting stupid outside shots?
Josh Smith fell in love with shots he was terrible at last season. Can Stan stop that this season?
Cavs Championship threat level: 2
Stan is still a few moves and an offensive system away from challenging the Cavs. He brought in shooters like Meeks and Butler this season, but he still needs more shooters, a ball handler to lead the second unit, and guys that know how to play with each other.
Prediction: 39-43 Lose first round of the playoffs
This team will surely improve under the hard coaching of Stan and from having a plan to get the proper players for their offensive style.
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks had players last season that made them seem like a team going for the sixth seed in the East. They weren’t dominant players, but they were proven role guys that were going to compliment Brandon Knight, OJ Mayo, and Larry Sanders. That plan didn’t work. Knight couldn’t score enough. Mayo couldn’t stop eating. And, Sanders couldn’t stop getting in trouble off the court. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the highlight of the year, as he couldn’t stop growing physically and at the game of basketball. The Bucks will start fresh this season after securing premier scoring forward Jabari Parker and coach Jason Kidd.
Additions: Jabari Parker (Rookie), Damien Inglis (Centre Fédéral de Basketball), Johnny O’Bryant (Rookie), Jared Dudley (LA Clippers), Jerryd Bayless (Boston), Kendall Marshall (Lakers)
Subtractions: Carlos Delfino, Ekpe Udoh (LA Clippers), Ramon Sessions (Sacramento), Miroslav Raduljica (Shandong Lions), Jeff Adrien (Houston)
Storylines:
1.This team has lots of length. A starting lineup of Knight (6’3”), the Greek Freak (6’11”), Ilyasova (6’10”), Parker (6’9″), and Sanders (6’11”) is going to be the most frustrating group of guys to pass against in the league. Defensively, this lineup should be insane. Offensively, Kidd will have to find a way to make them score as a team and not just off of isolation plays.
2. This team has a strong bench, and it will be interesting to see how much Kidd tries to play with it in order to constantly have fresh players on the court. Will we see lots of five man substitutions?
Cavs championship threat level: 1
This team is young and needs time to come together. There is no clear star that can win a game for them, yet. They should be a threat in two more years.
Prediction: 44-38 Lose first round of the playoffs
The Bucks could be sneaky good defensively. Kidd is going to keep the young players focused and should be able to leverage the offensive abilities of Parker in a way that makes the rest of the players serviceable offensive pieces.
after watching the mavs game ( and the entire pre season ) let’s get it done and sign — T.T. TO A LONG TERM CONTRACT
It is just pre-season, so got to see TT carry it over to when it counts, but got to admit he looks like the best version of himself so far. Tons of hustle, strong on the boards, great running the floor, improved D, better finishing (although he still seems to get blocked more than he should). I was shocked to hear the announcers say that, in addition to all the weight room work to get stronger, that TT actually grew an inch over the summer. He’s now 6’10! If he grew an inch every summer, he’d be unstoppable by 2017!… Read more »
Well there is some truth to that joke. If he was/is still growing then he probably wasn’t/isn’t yet completely comfortable in his own body. Once his body settles in there could be some real promise there. It’s an added benefit that he is a huge hustle guy already.
I like the Bucks a lot and think that their going to be surprising defensively. I also think they have a deep bench. A lot of their bench guys could be serviceable role players on good teams.
As for the Pacers, scoring is goin to be so hard for them to do.
Bucks are a point guard away from being really interesting. I wonder if Jason Kidd could get them to pull the trigger on a Rondo trade?
Parker is likely a bad defender (at this point, at least), and he will be getting at least 30 minutes a game. They had the worst defense in basketball last year, added a guy who isn’t a defender, and they are going to magically be good on D?? And a strong bench? They replaced Sessions and Delfino with Marshall and Dudley. Seems like an even swap. 44 wins is what the Wizards and Nets had last year. They need a ton of luck to hit 30. Aside: What do people think Giannis will develop into? I’m not sure there’s a… Read more »
Have you not watched the Freak? I agree that there is no way the Bucks are getting even close to 4o wins, but the Greek Freak is legit.
Yeah. I didn’t even catch the 44 wins the first time I read. We had them for 21 over at GotBuckets. http://www.gotbuckets.com/2014/10/06/milwaukee-bucks-2014-2015-season-preview/
I think you’ve been clubbing with Larry Sanders too much.
Longterm the Bucks could be vicious. This draft appears to be loaded with centers and they’ll be bad enough to draft in the top 6. If they get a legit young pivot, and surround him, GF and Jabari with the right vets the East will be their conference when the Cavs run winds down in five years.
They might have to play Mike Fratello ball.
I am with David. Their roster fits together quite nicely. The addition of Marshall to their backcourt should give them a huge offensive lift. He will understand how to get Parker the ball. Brandon Knight can go back to playing the 2 where he is more suited. Defensively, if Larry Smokers can put it down for a couple minutes, they will be a nightmare. I expect the Greek Freak to have a mini-breakout season before really coming into his own 2015-2016. I’m not 44 wins high on them, but I would take the over on 38 wins. If they had… Read more »
Bucks win seven more games than the Pacers? Really?
Nice preview, but I think you’ve overrated the Bucks a bit. I don’t see them winning 44 games, probably about 10 to 15 games less than that.
I think you forgot about a few guys in your assessment…..turns out Dirk is actually good in the high post, the best in the game, maybe of all time. Aldridge is pretty great too. Maybe time to take off the Cavs colored glasses?
I agreed. I think he meant “Centers who can play in the high post.”
So I edited.
I did mean centers. You read my mind Nate.
Love the preview, but you’re nuts if you think the Pacers are missing the playoffs. Larry Bird will come out of retirement and suit up before that happens.
I’ll make a semi-crazy prediction that the Pacers will not only miss the playoffs, but will find a way to unload West or Hibbert or both and then rebuild around PG and draft picks starting next year. Before dismissing this theory out of hand, if you’re Bird and the Pacers brass you know it doesn’t really help you to make the playoffs this year without PG (which sucks for them since this first year together will probably be the Cavs most vulnerable). PG going down is not so different from when Indy’s football team lost Peyton, sucked for a year… Read more »
The East is deeper this year and outside of Philly there really isn’t a team tanking. I can’t see Indy making the playoffs and West doesn’t really fit their time table anymore. As far as teams for West, I like him in Toronto. They could move Chuck Hayes and Landry Field’s expiring contracts and a pick or Lucas Nogueira or something.
If they dump everyone like EvilG says, then they won’t make it. But assuming they don’t, I am with Nate. I see the Pacers a lot like the Rose-less bulls the past couple years. They have an amazing system, play great D, and have lots of vets. That is usually enough in the East.
They did play amazing D and George was their best defensive player (2.33 D RAPM) and his presumable replacement Chris Copeland was their second worst defender (-1.92 D RAPM). The East got deeper this season. After the Cavs and Bulls, you got Charlotte, Washington, Toronto, Miami, Brooklyn, and Atlanta. I have a hard time seeing this team finish ahead of any of them. The Pacers dominant D offset their mediocre offense. Their D should be worse and they lost their two best playmakers off the dribble.