Another Point Guard Option

Could one of these two assume the role of backup point guard?

A few weeks ago, Cavs: The Blog took a look at the Cavaliers’ options at backup point guard. While discussing Jordan McRae, I briefly mentioned the possibility of the Cavaliers playing without a traditional backup point guard, but dismissed the notion just as quickly. Looking back, that may have been a mistake. Could the Cavaliers go into the season with Kyrie Irving as the only traditional—if there is such a thing—point guard in the rotation? This may not be as crazy an idea as it seems.

With the start of training camp still two months away, it seems likely that the Cavaliers will have three point guards on their roster. Obviously Kyrie Irving will return as the starter for his sixth season with the Cavaliers, while the duo of Mo Williams and Kay Felder will also likely make the final roster. Unfortunately for the Cavaliers, not all depth is equal. Williams is an aging veteran who struggled with injuries and poor defense throughout last season, and he may not be fully recovered by next season. Felder is an interesting prospect for a late second-round pick, but at just 5-9 he will likely struggle on defense. Most rookies do, and Felder’s height almost makes switching onto other players impossible. While they may be the other point guards on the team, it would be a stretch to assume that either Williams or Felder will be among the Cavaliers’ ten best players. Because of that, it’s difficult to truly justify either man playing every night.

It always makes sense for a team to play its best players the most minutes, but in an NBA that is “going small” and becoming more position-less, lineups can seemingly feature any number of guard and wing players. Most observers would probably list LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, J.R. Smith, Channing Frye, Richard Jefferson, Iman Shumpert, and Mike Dunleavy Jr. as the nine best players on the Cavaliers. New addition Chris “Birdman” Andersen is likely the tenth player both due to his role as the fourth big man and his solid on/off court numbers over the last few seasons. Obviously, they will all have times where they miss games due to either rest or injury, and there could be some shuffling in the order, but it’s fair to assume that these men would make up at least the majority of the Cavaliers’ regular rotation.

Now let’s look at the minutes available. In the front court, there are 96 minutes between center and power forward. Based on last season’s numbers, it would be safe to say that the trio of Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, and Channing Frye will soak up at least 76 to 77 of those minutes. This leaves about 20 minutes to play with. Assuming Andersen plays between 10 and 15 minutes a night, that would leave about four to ten minutes of time at power forward for LeBron James/Richard Jefferson/Mike Dunleavy. James would essentially play power forward on offense, but who defends the four would be based on the matchup.

On the perimeter, there are 146 minutes available between point guard, shooting guard, and small forward. Even with the time at power forward, James, Jefferson, and Dunleavy would essentially take all of the minutes at small forward (Smith would likely see minutes there as well, but let’s keep this simple). Even if James played 34 minutes per game next season, easily a career low, Dunleavy and Jefferson figure to take up between 15 and 20 minutes a night each (Dunleavy has never played fewer than 22 minutes per game in his career). Even the lowest estimates have this trio taking up between 64 and 74 minutes of court time a night, likely much more than would be available to them between the two forward spots, unless Andersen was playing Sasha Kaun-type minutes – unlikely, given both the team’s desire to rest players and the playing time allotted to Timofey Mozgov this past season. More probable, Dunleavy would get about 10 minutes of the forward minutes, and 10 minutes at shooting guard. This, along with 34 minutes for James and 17 minutes for Jefferson, would equal 61 minutes for the three men at the forward spots, likely the absolute maximum available to them.

Now, let’s figure Irving and Smith each play roughly 31 minutes per night at the point guard and shooting guard positions, respectively. Assuming Dunleavy plays about 10 minutes per night at shooting guard, that leaves about 24 minutes available between the two guard spots. Who averaged 24 .4 minutes per game last season? Iman Shumpert. That doesn’t leave any regular minutes for other players, so now we a rough plan for how the Cavaliers could very well manage their regular rotation next season.

The problem for some is that none of these men besides Irving are point guards. But is that a problem? Could the Cavaliers’ regular rotation be one without a backup point guard? While this may not seem like the best idea, it has been done before.

In fact, not only has this been done before, but it’s been done by some of the greatest teams in the history of the game. Ron Harper was a prolific scorer at shooting guard with the Cavaliers and Los Angeles Clippers for the first half of his career. Then he signed with the Chicago Bulls before the 1994-1995 season and everything changed. Michael Jordan returned to the Bulls from his adventures in baseball near the end of that season and Harper became the starting point guard. Over the next three seasons, Harper averaged 2.7 assists and 0.9 turnovers per game while the Bulls won three straight championships. During this time, his backups were Steve Kerr and Randy Brown, two very capable players, but not known for their passing. Yes, Harper played with terrific playmakers in Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, and Toni Kukoc, but is there really much difference in terms of passing between that trio and the Cavaliers’ Big Three of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love? The Bulls trio averaged 14.7, 14.5, and 13.5 assists per game in the 1996, 1997, and 1998 seasons, respectively. The Cavaliers’ trio averaged 13.9 last season. Lower than two out of the three Bulls seasons, but in the same ballpark.

Harper continued to function as starting point guard when he joined the Los Angeles Lakers for the last two years of his career. During this stretch, Harper averaged 3.0 assists to 1.5 turnovers as the Lakers won back-to-back NBA Titles. As was the case with the Bulls, Harper’s main focus was as a big defender on the perimeter. The difference was that he was backed up by more natural point guards in Derek Fisher and Brian Shaw, who served as the second unit behind Harper and Kobe Bryant. Still, that backcourt rotation, along with Shaquille O’Neal and Glen Rice, combined for 19.8 assists per game. The Cavaliers’ Big Three, along with Smith, Shumpert, and Dunleavy would have totaled 18.6 assists per game based on last seasons numbers. Yes, the Cavaliers group had 1.2 fewer assists per game, but considering the loss of Dellavedova, who averaged 4.4 assists per game himself, one would assume that the Cleveland crew, sans another backup point guard, would see their assist total jump a bit simply because some players will have the ball in their hands a bit more.

While the Bulls and Lakers with Harper give examples of teams functioning without a true starting point guard, there have been examples of great teams functioning without a traditional backup as well. One of those teams Cavaliers general manager David Griffin is intimately familiar with, the Seven Seconds or Less Phoenix Suns. While those Suns teams never won a championship, they were legitimate title contenders for several years, and their style of play continues to have a tremendous influence on today’s NBA. Obviously those teams had a Hall of Fame point guard in Steve Nash leading the way. They also had playmakers such as Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw during their run, but they almost never had a true backup point guard. Nash’s usual backup for most of this era was Leandro Barbosa, a combo guard with a score first mentality. In fact, Barbosa has only averaged more than 2.8 assists once in his career, during the 2006-2007 season when he was names the NBA’s Sixth Man of the Year. Only when they acquired Goran Dragic after he was drafted by the San Antonio Spurs did the Suns have a true point guard behind Nash.

Obviously, the individual assist total of one player is not the end all-be all in basketball. The simple fact that almost all of the teams mentioned above had more assists in each season they were together than last year’s Cavaliers had even with a capable backup point guard in Matthew Dellavedova proves that. What it does show though, is that ball movement is predicated more on how a team plays than the number of “true” point guards in their rotation. The question now is: have their been recent teams to have fewer assists than the 1,861 totaled by last year’s Cavaliers and still experience a high level of success?

An easy example would be the 2006-2007 Cavaliers, a team that not only had 153 fewer assists on the season, but only played one traditional point guard in Eric Snow. Most often LeBron James and Larry Hughes were the primary ball handlers, and Hughes even started at point guard throughout their run to the Finals in 2007. Obviously last season’s Cavaliers were a much better team, but the fact remains that this marginally talented team was extremely successful with only one traditional point guard (who wasn’t even that big a part of the offense).

Another team that twice had fewer assists in a season than last year’s Cavaliers were the LeBron James-era Miami Heat. Not only did they have 14 fewer assists in their last season together, they also had significantly fewer during their first championship run in the 2011-2012 season. Obviously that season started late due to the lockout, but even if one takes the 1,317 assists the Heat had in 66 games that season and figures that rate over a full season, it would equal 1,636 assists in 82 games, or 225 fewer than the Cavaliers last season. The Heatles also had just 1,639 assists in their first season together, yet held a 2-1 lead in the NBA Finals before completely falling apart. These Heat teams were also very good offensively despite having lower assist numbers, showing that the Cavaliers—who have superior perimeter shooting than Miami did in addition to also having James—can still be an elite offensive team even if their assist totals drop off a bit.

The Spurs have always had point guards besides Tony Parker, but actually had fewer assist than last year’s Cavaliers during their championship seasons in 2003, 2005, and 2007. Yes, the league has changed tremendously since then, with more of an emphasis on ball movement and outside shooting than ever before, but even these Spurs were not known for playing stagnant iso-ball. Yes, it’s fair to say that Tim Duncan—and later Tony Parker—sometimes dominated the ball on offense when needed. It’s also fair to say that LeBron James and Kyrie Irving are every bit the scorers Duncan and Parker are and have shown that they can dominate a games on the highest level.

So can this work for the Cavaliers personnel? The simple fact is that in the playoffs, the Cavaliers offense will be facilitated almost entirely by LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, a strategy that has proven to be extremely successful if not always pretty. In particular, James playing with the second unit was a remarkably effective lineup for most of the playoffs, and it’s probable that it will be used again at times this season. Kevin Love, a terrific passer for a big man, will also be given opportunities to have the offense run through him at the elbow, especially in the regular season. One of the best traits about Dellavedova was that he could run the point, but also play off the ball alongside James and Irving. None of the rest of the Cavaliers can run the offense like Dellavedova, but they may not have to.

Even in the regular season, it will be rare to have instances in close games when none of James, Love, or Irving are on the floor. As long as one is playing, the offense will run through him. While this may sound like an oversimplification, what the Cavaliers really need is someone to bring the ball up and get it to Love when the offense is running through him, and bring the ball up for James so that he is not using unnecessary energy. So who among the Cavaliers can do this?

The thought of this would terrify many Cavs fans, but Iman Shumpert might be the right player to fill this role. Shumpert has a decent amount of experience at point guard both in college at Georgia Tech, and early in his career with the New York Knicks. While he is a shaky dribbler when trying to create his own shot, and a terrible finisher, Shumpert has been a solid passer throughout his career. While his career assist-to turnover-ratio is a mediocre 1.5, his assist ratio—the percentage of Shumpert’s possessions that ended with him earning an assist—has been solid throughout his career. According to ESPN.com, even last season when he struggled greatly on offense, Shumpert ranked ahead of the likes Jeremy Lin, Devin Harris, Jason Terry, Brandon Knight, Dwyane Wade, and yes, Kyrie Irving in assist ratio. Shumpert has many faults on offense, but he is a capable and willing passer, and probably does the best job of any player on the roster in terms of defending opposing point guards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOi4dDPjS6g

Giving him some additional responsibility in terms of setting up the offense may serve as a way to make Shumpert feel more involved on that end without forcing the types of poor shots we saw far too often last season. If he can continue to defend at a high level, and help set up the offense at times while continuing to shoot from the perimeter like he did in the playoffs (38% from three), the Cavaliers will be thrilled with Shumpert.

Another idea would be to start Shumpert at shooting guard, and have J.R. Smith bring the ball up and set the offense when James and Irving are not doing so. This would both improve the perimeter defense of the starting unit, and add some off the dribble scoring to the Cavaliers’ bench. But while Smith is a better ball handler than Shumpert in terms of creating his own shot, there is little evidence that J.R.  is better (or more inclined) than Shumpert in terms of setting up others. Yes, his assist totals and assist percentage are higher for his career (per basketball-reference), but that has mostly been due to Smith being a larger part of the offense with both the Knicks and the Cavaliers. His assist ratio has been lower than Shumpert’s in five out of the six years both men have been in the league, and considering they have been teammates throughout that time, it is a pretty fair comparison. The other thing putting Smith with the second unit would do is give him less time alongside the trio of James, Irving, and Love, therefore somewhat minimizing the effect of one of the best floor spacers and offensive safety valves in the league. Smith is certainly not a non-passer, but Shumpert is a better one.

Another strength the Cavaliers have is that all of the members of their probable second unit are strong passers in their own right. Mike Dunleavy has averaged 2.3 assists to 1.4 turnovers for his career. While he served as even more of a shooting specialist with the Bulls than in earlier stops, Dunleavy still has good court vision and makes the right passes to keep an offense flowing. Much of the same can also be said about Richard Jefferson. While Jefferson has moved from off-the-dribble scorer to spot-up shooter as he has aged, he occasionally has flashbacks where he tries to get past his defender and finish at the rim. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but overall Jefferson is also a smart passer who either takes good shots or keeps the ball moving. Channing Frye and Chris Andersen aren’t prolific passers in terms of assist totals, but both have had respectable assist ratios for big men throughout their careers, and typically only shoot fairly open threes (Frye) or finish lobs at the rim (Andersen). Put these four alongside James, Irving, or even Love or Shumpert, and these offense should work just fine. This is a group of smart players who will keep the ball moving whether or not they have a point guard setting them up.

None of this is to say that the Cavaliers won’t miss Dellavedova’s heady play, particularly his passing. He’s ranked in the top 11 in assist ratio all three seasons he’s been in the league. It is simply advocating that the Cavaliers can survive without him, and may be better off playing the best players on their current roster versus giving minutes to a backup point guard who is a lesser player. Even if this type of rotation doesn’t work for the Cavs, it is by no means set in stone. They can always use one of their trade exceptions to acquire a traditional backup point guard if management decides one is needed. There will be some decent veterans available around the trade deadline, after buyouts, and possibly even earlier than that if some of the players currently available don’t find homes before then.  Mo Williams, Kay Felder, and possibly Jordan McRae will also be given opportunities to backup Irving, particularly on nights when some members of the regular rotation aren’t playing or the game isn’t close. Some of the Cavaliers will be better than they were last season, some will be worse. Surprises happen, both good and bad. Still, don’t dismiss the idea of the Cavaliers using lineups without a “real” backup point guard more often. It just might be the best fit for this team.