Southwest Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the third installment in our annual six part series of division previews, here at C:tB. If you missed the Pacific Division, or the Northwest Division you can check them out in the aforementioned links.]

New Orleans Pelicans (Cory Hughey)

New Orleans has now reached the summit of my Mancation destination wishlist and I hope to go early next year. While my affinity for creole cuisine is the primary reason for the trip (along with a casino), I really want to experience America’s first melting pot in person. I want to feel like I’m in a foreign land domestically. I want to drink gin as jazz echoes all around. I want to make a judgement firsthand if the New Orleans basketball experiment is working. They lucked into a team thanks to George Shinn being a scumbag of an owner and ripping the Hornets from Charlotte, and then had a generational talent in Anthony Davis fall into their laps after Chris Paul dumped the franchise for the bright lights of LA. The Big Easy is still struggling at the box office, ranking 24th in the league in attendance a year ago, with one of the brightest stars in the league, while cities like Seattle and Las Vegas go without.

The front office was already feeling the pressure to improve the team in an effort to keep Davis in The Crescent City five years before he could become an unrestricted free agent. As we experienced ourselves this summer, a star can force his way out, no matter how many years he has left on his deal. With that built in need to improve in mind, the Pelicans swung an aggressive exchange at the trade deadline last season to transform the Peli-cant’s into the Pelicans with the blockbuster trade for perennial enigma DeMarcus Cousins to form a new age twin towers.

As lucky as they were to land Davis, the team has been stricken with injuries the past few years, and drastically fallen short of expectations. In the end, the NBA is a bottom line business, and if they miss the playoffs again, the front office and coaching staff could be cleaned out. Their offseason got off to a rough start losing Soloman Hill, their starting small forward, to a hamstring injury for the next 6-8 months.

Additions: Rajon Rondo (Bulls), Tony Allen (Grizzlies),E’Twaun Moore (Bulls), Ian Clark (Warriors), Frank Jackson (Draft)

Subtractions: Tim Frazier (Wizards), Quincy Pondexter (Bulls)

Storylines:

1-Will Rondo and Holiday be able to coexist? Playoff Rondo returned last year for the Bulls, and if not for him suffering a broken thumb, the Bulls could have upset the heavily favored Celtics. Knowing that Rondo isn’t completely washed is a positive, but he also has a deep history of not playing nice with others. Will having to share ball handling duties with Holiday produce internal turmoil? If Rondo does disrupt the locker room homeostasis, the Pelicans could always cut him. He’s only on the books for $3.3 million this year. Holiday is on the first season of a five-year, $131 million deal.

2-Can Davis and Cousins prosper together? The Pelicans went 7-10 during Cousins and Davis’ brief partnership last year. If the Pelicans had say, the Cavs reserve snipers like Korver and J.R. Smith flanking their twin towers maybe it could work. They don’t. Holiday has never shot 40% from downtown, and he has developed a lengthy injury history himself. Defenders sagging off of Rondo will just further clog the lane.

If Davis could run a high pick and roll with Cousins they could be a force. While Davis has the athleticism to beat his man off the dribble, and underrated passing ability, I don’t think he has the ball handling dexterity to facilitate like that.

3. If their Wildcat combo can’t push this team to playoff contention, what do they do with Boogie’s impending free agency. The perfect/lazy trade is to send Cousins to the Wizards for Otto Porter. Porter could be a valuable and versatile wing to compliment Anthony Davis, and the Pelicans would at least have something to show long-term for their Cousins rental and the package they gave up for him.

Player I’d Love to Have: I try to put role players in these over stars, so I’m going to go with Tony Allen. Sure he’s old enough to remember smoking on planes, everyone having a mustache, and booking a flight without the internet (how did they do that?), but he was still third league-wide in DRPM of 2.15 at his position. One of my favorite aspects of the Kyrie trade was getting Jae Crowder so that the team could finally have some physicality. Allen could have formed a defensive Westside Story clicking-their-fingers street gang with Crowder, Smith, LeBron and Tristan.

Player I’d Hate to Have: Omer Asik. Asik is NBA old money in the sense that he’s on an old contract that would never be given out today for a player of his skill set. Okay, sure the Lakers gave our beloved Mozzy $64 million a year ago, but that deal is so bad just a year later that they had to give up the 2nd pick in a draft just to get rid of him.

Asik is still a quality interior defender, but he’s a ball and chain on the offense. Asik was 40th in RPM at his position last season, and he’s still owed $34 million over the next three years, with a player option in 2020 (LEAK: he’s going to pick it up).

Prediction: 41-41

The Pelican’s over/under is 39.5 wins, which shows that the degenerate sharks in Vegas don’t believe that the Cousins and Davis union will take the West by storm. If Davis can play a slightly more outside game, and Boogie dominates in the paint, they could threaten for a late playoff seed in the oh so deep Western Conference.

Dallas Mavericks (Cory Hughey)

The Mavericks are in a strange place because of Dirk Nowitzki. The best player in the history of the franchise in nearing the final grains of sand in his NBA hour glass, and his presence has held the team back from a full-scale Sam Presti burn it to the ground rebuild to stay competitive for Dirk’s final seasons, and they’ve missed out on premium lottery picks because of it.

Free agency hasn’t been an effective retooling plan for the team either as they’ve struck out on every major player they’ve meet with. Harrison Barnes was a decent addition, and established career highs across the board in his first season in Dallas, but he’s probably a third banana at best on a title contender, and he’s making first banana money. The acquisition of Nerlens Noel seemed like a perfect buy low building block last season, but after a bitter contract dispute during the offseason, he’s no longer a lock to stay with the team after this season.

Additions: Josh McRoberts (Heat), Maxi Kleber (Germany)

Storylines:

1-Did they make a mistake with how they handled Noel’s free agency? Sometimes a front office can get obsessed with winning the negotiation like the Browns have with Mitchell Schwartz, and Terrelle Pryor. Both times Sashi Brown was right that they wouldn’t land the dough they were seeking in free agency, but he could have saved face, and retained them, rather than told them to punch dirt or sand or whatever that saying is. The Mavs landed Noel for basically a pair of second round picks, and Noel turned down their four-year, $70 million offer. The two sides couldn’t find a common ground, and Noel opted to bet on himself this season and signed his one-year, $4.1 million qualifying offer.

2-Will Dennis Smith Jr. win Rookie of the Year? While Lonzo Ball, and Markelle Fultz grabbed most of the headlines at the draft, no rookie is in a better position to fill up a box score than Smith. During his lone season at N.C. State, Smith averaged an impressive 18.1 points per game, and dished out 6.2 dimes. His long ball could use a little work (36%), but Smith’s combination of top end open court speed, an accurate midrange jumper and the ability to change gears like Baby Driver will make him everything we wanted Dion Waiters to be. Rick Carlisle has a history of making rookies wait their turn, but this roster doesn’t have the depth for seniority lessons.

3-Is this Dirk’s last season? Dirk’s NBA career turns 20 this season, and his stat line is showing it. Dirk logged the least games played (54), minutes per game (26.4) and points per game (14.2) since his rookie year. Dirk is just 1,159 points behind Wilt Chamberlain for fifth on the all-time scoring list and he cleared that total in two of the past three seasons. He earned a spot in Springfield years ago, and will probably have a cushy gig in the Mavericks front office after he retires, but there has to be a point though where his presence on the roster hampers the team’s development.

Player I’d Love to Have: Noel could thrive in the right situation with his versatility on the defensive end to switch on the pick and roll, play the passing lanes with his pterodactyl wingspan, and protect the rim. He could thrive in the Tristan Thompson role on the Cavs, except that Noel would actually be able to protect the rim. Noel’s lack of range would be offset by Love’s ability to stretch the floor, and he could even run some Kraken plays with LeBron as the facilitator. In the right situation Noel could be an extremely valuable sidekick, and oh yeah, he’s a Rich Paul client now.

Player I’d Hate to Have: There’s really not a rotation player on the Mavs that I wouldn’t want to have in some form, and the rest of the roster is pretty much a middling G League squad, so I’m gonna go off the grid and select Jonathan Motley. It’s not that I have anything against Motely or his game, but because of a fictional family my buddy John and I created when we were in high school. John bought his first car, The Sunturd, from a guy on the Eastside of Youngstown named Melindo Perez. We took his name, and went on to create an ongoing narrative that Melindo was a petty conman and would go door to door scamming old people by jiving on the virtues of having a moat dug around their house to keep street gangs at bay. Melindo would naturally get the money up front and never finish the moat. Melindo’s bait and switch con exploits would be often be foiled by his son Motley alerting the authorities, which would lead to a slow speed car chase as Melindo tried to out run the police on his backhoe.

Prediction: 35-47

The Mavs over under is a modest 35.5, and I initially liked the over slightly because I can’t see any Rick Carlisle coached team winning less than 35 games. The core of Barnes, Noel, Seth Curry, Wesley Matthews seems like a nice complimentary supporting cast for a team with a star. Unless they hit the jackpot with Dennis Smith Jr., though, they don’t have one. After looking at their yuk bench, I think 35 is just about right. Dirk, it’s time.

San Antonio Spurs (Mike Schreiner)

The Spurs have long been my second favorite NBA team, due to Tim Duncan being my favorite non-Cleveland athlete of all time. Even sweeping the Cavaliers in the 2007 NBA Finals didn’t change that. Timmy is retired now, but Kawhi Leonard carries on in his place as the superstar player who only cares about winning and abhors attention. As long as Gregg Popovich is there, they will build their roster around high I.Q., team-first players.

Still, it wasn’t a great summer for the Spurs. An offseason that began with talk of signing Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, or George Hill wound up yielding little in terms of upgrades. Instead they re-signed Pau Gasol and Patty Mills, while adding Rudy Gay as he tries to return from a torn achilles, as well as Cavaliers Summer League standout Brandon Paul. Meanwhile they lost a valuable bench player in Jonathon Simmons, who signed with the Orlando Magic after the Spurs made him a restricted free agent. To make matters worse, Leonard has missed the preseason with an injury to his right quadriceps, and there is currently no timetable for his return.

Despite the disappointing summer, is anyone really willing to bet against the Spurs? They’ll still move the ball, play great defense, and prove once again that their whole team is greater than the sum of it’s parts. Of course, that’s going to happen when you have one of the greatest coaches of all-time running your team. Popovich has the kind of control and job security every NBA coach dreams of, and he’s used it to implement a terrific system and culture that will keep the Spurs relevant for as long as he is around.

Additions: Rudy Gay (Kings) Joffrey Lauvergne (Bulls) Brandon Paul (Anadolu Efes)

Subtractions: David Lee, Dewayne Dedmon, Jonathon Simmons

Storylines:

1-How long will they be without Kawhi Leonard? Despite what LaMarcus Aldridge might believe, Leonard is the one true star the Spurs have, a terrific offensive player who is constantly getting better, and arguably the best defender in the league. If the Spurs are going to remain a title contender, they need a healthy Leonard. If he’s out for a significant amount of time, they could fall into the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff picture. Considering the teams at the top, that could be a real problem for the Spurs.

2-What about Tony Parker? While he’s undoubtedly past his prime, Parker remains a a large part of the Spurs offense. Patty Mills is the better shooter and defender, but he’s not nearly the creator Parker is. Dejounte Murray has shown a lot of potential, but it’s unknown whether he’s ready for a major role on a championship contender. The Spurs still need Parker, even if his role is a bit smaller than it used to be.

3-Will LaMarcus Aldridge bounce back? Last season, Aldridge wasn’t named an All-Star for the first time since 2011. He averaged his fewest points (17.3) since his second year in the NBA, and fewest rebounds (7.3) since his rookie season. To make matters worse, when Leonard was lost for the Western Conference Finals with an ankle injury, Aldridge shrunk in the moment, calling into question whether or not he was worth the team’s investment. The Spurs explored trading him this summer, but Aldridge is back for his third season with the team, reportedly reinvigorated for the upcoming season. Still, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Aldridge moved in the right deal.

Player I’d Love To Have:

Kawhi Leonard is such a monster. He’s one of those special players whose game can fit alongside anyone, and in any system. He’s a terrific outside shooter who would look great as a secondary playmaker alongside LeBron James. He’s also the best defensive wing in the league, who could guard the other team’s best player every night. If Cavs fans are excited about Jae Crowder, they would do cartwheels for Kawhi Leonard. You want to scare the Warriors? Put LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard together.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

LaMarcus Aldridge certainly isn’t the bum many make him out to be, but there are a lot of warts for a guy scheduled to make over $43 million over the next two seasons. His offense consists primarily of long two-point attempts. He’s a mediocre rebounder, and he doesn’t want to play center despite trends in the league making that his best position. To make matters worse, Aldridge sometimes seems more concerned about his numbers than winning, a very un-Spursy quality. The pros just don’t seem to outweigh the cons.

Prediction: 53-29

This seems a bit modest for the Spurs, but Leonard’s injury, combined with the improvements made by the Houston Rockets and Oklahoma City Thunder this offseason, could easily push the Spurs down to fourth in the West. Part of me wanted to go even lower, but I have too much faith in Coach Pop.

Memphis Grizzlies (David Wood)

This summer I moved back to Cleveland. I left a decent life behind, and I’ll look back upon it fondly. That move, in the loosest interpretation of a move, wasn’t spurred by an offer of millions to play sports like Zach Randolph and Tony Allen’s departures from Memphis. While both inked fresh lucrative deals in Sacramento and New Orleans, I’m sure that they’ll both experience nostalgia over their time as Memphians.

Grizzlies fans will have a positive reflection on the grit and grind era for years, even with their seemingly annual playoff shortcoming due to a combination of a lack of offensive firepower, and an endless run of injury luck at the worst possible time. This year will finally determine if Tony and Zach were truly the grit to Memphis’ grind. If the Grizz suddenly regress this season, the team could deal away Conley and Gasol and embark on a page one rewrite of the organization.

Additions: Dillon Brooks (Draft), Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans (Kings), Vince Hunter (Avtodor Saratov), Ben McLemore (Kings), Jeremy Morgan (Draft), Kobi Simmons (Draft), Ivan Rabb (Draft), Rade Zagorac (Mega Leks)

Subtractions: Tony Allen (Pelicans), Vince Carter (Kings), Troy Daniels (Suns) and Zach Randolph (Kings)

Storylines: 

1-NBA folks love to talk about culture. The Grizzlies will be one of the most interesting cultures to talk about this season because there are numerous questions it will force upon the leagues’ collective mind. Did Allen and Randolph actually forge their rough around the edges mentality, or did the front office foster that identity? Did the the players create the culture that the front office appropriated and made their own? The team lost guys that were past their primes, and replaced them with players that haven’t hit their primes, and probably never will.

2-There probably isn’t any real reason to think this group will falter. David Fizdale seems like a decent coach, but more importantly, the combination of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol might be one of the most mentally stable star tandems in league history. Those two guys are extremely above average at everything. Conley is locked up for four more years in one of the richest deals in NBA history and Marc still has three years left on his contract. Here’s a fun thought I had going into last season: Marc Gasol might be the only traditional center still playable in the NBA in three years because of his passing and smart defense that overcomes his lack of athleticism. Well, last year he hit nearly a 1.5 3s a game at a 38.8% rate. He elevated his game and is arguably one of the best centers to take the court these days, modern or dinosaur classifications aside.

3-The Grizzlies need a guy to rise up and become a solid starter.  They haven’t had much luck in the draft, but they signed Ben McLemore this off season. He’s currently injured, but Ben has shown promise on a dysfunctional team. A stable pair of stars in Gasol and Conley could bring out the best in McLemore. The Grizz also re-signed JaMychal Green. I’m not a huge Green fan, but he put up some impressive stats a stats nerd like me can appreciate: He took 1.9 3s a night hitting 37.9% of them to go along with 7.1 boards. He’s also 6’9” and fairly beefy. If he starts with Gasol, the Grizz’s spacing could be in the realm of what most modern NBA teams start these days. The Grizz still have Chandler Parsons eating away at valuable cap space.

Player I’d Love To Have: Marc Gasol would be so fun to watch on the Cavs. If he played with Love, and the team unleashed some dual elbow twin towers screening and distributing sets, the high-low action would be terrifying.

Player I’d Hate To Have: I really loved Chandler Parsons at one point in his career. Now, I can’t remember why. I guess he’s good at social media, which might be why the Grizz keep him around still; that way the team has a little more personality with Z-B0 and Tony Allen gone.

Prediction: 45-37

Losing who they did, the Grizzlies didn’t lose much. Sure those players were sort of productive, but they’re old. If Chandler Parsons can play more than forty games this year, I have faith Memphis makes another trip to the playoffs and plays some very inspired ball leading people to wish they didn’t have to play the Warriors in the first round.

Houston Rockets (Carson Zagger)

Sam Presti hasn’t been the only GM at the blackjack table this offseason. Daryl More of the Rockets, staring up at the behemoth Warriors, may have been tempted to shrug his shoulders and concede “eh, maybe next decade,” but instead stole a page from the Cavs’ marketing staff and declared, “nope, I’m going All In™!” Indeed, Morey pushed all of his chips to the center when he obtained Chris Paul in one of the biggest blockbuster deals of the summer. The Rockets are now among several Western Conference powers that have retooled in a major way and appear set on slaying the dragon, rather hiding from it.

A year ago, the Rockets won 55 games in a brilliant season led by MVP-runner-up James Harden during Coach Mike D’Antoni’s Houston debut. The team disappointingly flamed out in the second round of the playoffs versus the Spurs, a series where Harden inexplicably went milk carton in the final games of the series. In signing Paul, the Rockets have another player with a huge chip on his should after losing a painful seven-game series in the playoffs’ opening round. In short: this team ought to be hungry.

The Rockets and Clippers essentially swapped half of their teams and Houston appears to be the better for it. H-Town has added an all-time playmaker in Chris Paul, plus have a pair of defensive minded role players in Luc Mbah a Moat and P.J. Tucker, all while retaining all of the three-point-shooting you could shake a beard at. On paper, they should be very, very good.

Additions: Chris Paul (Clippers), Luc Mbah a Moute (Clippers), Tarik Black (Lakers), P.J. Tucker (Raptors), Isaiah Hartenstein (Draft), Zhou Qi (China)

Subtractions: Patrick Beverly, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, Montrezl Harrell

Storylines:

https://youtu.be/nE_0ttSrpjM

1-Can Chris Paul and James Harden coexist? Harden famously made the switch to point guard last season, and his numbers and usage skyrocketed as a result. Now he will be asked to slide back to the shooting guard position he’s played his entire career. In comes Chris Paul, a notoriously demanding teammate and someone who loves to have the ball and decision-making go through his hands. It will be one of the NBA’s top storylines to seesaw this star-studded backcourt meshes (or not).

2-Will they live up to the billing in the postseason? Fair or not, Paul and Harden have had the “choker” label attached to them by many fans. Paul has never played in a Conference Finals. His Clippers teams consistently underperformed in the postseason for years. Meanwhile, Harden recently put on one of the great must-win disappearing acts this side of USMNT. With two Hall-of-Fame talents surrounded by a versatile and explosive roster, anything short of the Western Conference Finals will be seen as a let down.

3-Can they compete with the Warriors? It gets old, but these six words are the little caveat attached to everything a contending team does these days. That’s what happens when an MVP candidate in his prime joins a 73 win team. Now the NBA is in the middle of an arms race to stack top teams in an effort to knock off Golden State, and the Rockets are one of the leaders on this front. On paper, Houston looks formidable, but will it be enough to challenge the Olympic team by the bay?

Player I’d Love to Have: Luc Mbah a Moute. Does this name sound familiar? while the Cavs were busy writing checks to the Jose Calderons and Jeff Greens of the world, many Cleveland fans, including those on these very boards, pended for the triple-last-named wing during the offseason. The 6’8” Mbah a Moat is the perfect 3-and-D wing for this Cavs team. He’s a rangy forward who can defend multiple positions and hit treys at a career-high 39% clip last year. He’s an ideal anti-Warrior weapon.

Player I’d Hate to Have: Poor Ryan Anderson, bane of NBA subreddit comments. Oft confused for a “Diet Kevin Love,” it isn’t that Anderson is a terrible player, as he is a gifted shooter, despite being a black hole defensively. Dat contract doe: $20 million per year for three more years. Ouch.

Prediction: 59-23

Despite the consternation about how Harden and Paul git together, those are way too smart of players to not figure something out. The Rockets will still take and make a ton of threes, and might even acknowledge the mid-range nether-region of the floor with Chris Paul at the point. They get better overall defensively, despite losing Beverley, and can still light it up on the other end unlike few teams in the league. 60 wins might be tough to scrape by in a loaded conference, but there are few teams as talented as the Rockets.

[Update: If you’re interested in playing fantasy basketball with the CtB crew, please email Robert Attenweiler at rattenweiler@gmail.com]