Chris Grant and Draft Picks
2012-03-29
Part 1 – Reign of Construction
Chris Grant became Cleveland Cavaliers GM on June, 4, 2010. Due to his oversight, the Cavs plummeted from NBA contender to afterthought…. (sound of record screeching). Just fooling around, the organization has been busy accumulating cap space and draft picks. Given that essentially two years of decision making are in the books, let’s take a look back at his personnel moves to get a feel for how he’s doing. I’ve rated them as follows:
- Traded Mo Williams and Jamario Moon for Baron Davis and the Clippers unprotected 2011 first round pick – February 2011 – A transformative move for the franchise. Grant started blowing up the worst team in franchise history, taking on $30 million of salary in exchange for a probable mid-lottery pick. Good fortune struck and along came Kyrie Irving. I don’t want to think about the parallel universe where there is no amnesty clause and the Cavs don’t win the lottery.
- Draft Day 2011 – This gets ranked second primarily based on acquiring, seemingly, a franchise cornerstone. I still wish the Cavs had actually added players in round two, and don’t strive to re-open the debate about the fourth pick, but finding a new franchise player less than one year after losing the last one qualifies as a solid day at the office.
- Won three draft picks from the Heat in a game of mahjong – July 2010 – I don’t recall the specifics of how this went down.
- Traded Hickson for Omri Casspi and a future first round draft pick – June 2011 – Along the same lines as the Williams & Moon trade; jettisoning pieces of the “Lebron Cavs” was important towards moving the team forward. Casspi hasn’t been anything to gloat about, but Hickson suits up for his third team in a year, and in the next few years, Cleveland ends up with something like the 12th pick in the draft.
- Signed Alonzo Gee to free agent contract – December 2010 – The Wizards waived AG and one week later the Cavs picked him up. Pretty good value so far on this one.
- Traded Sessions & Eyenga for Luke Walton & 1st round draft pick(s) – March 2012 – no need rehashing this trade; I support it.
- Amnestied Baron Davis – December 2011 – I wasn’t highly supportive on this at the time. It’s not worth thinking about enough to decide if my opinion has changed.
- Acquire Sessions, Hollins & 2nd round pick for Delonte & Bassy Telfair – July 2010 – Nine months after a felony gun arrest and following an erratic season; the Cavs were done with Red. He was turned into 1.5 years of Sessions, the unique comedy stylings of Ryan Hollins, a Lakers first round choice, and these guys…
- Minnesota 2013 2nd round pick traded for Semih Erden and Luke Harangody – Feb 2011 – I wonder what will be available at #48 in 2013?
- Waiving Ryan Hollins – This could fall in a “too early to call” category. It’s probably wise to give it a few months and make sure Hollins doesn’t embark towards getting his jersey raised to the rafters of the Boston Garden, to hang alongside previous great Celtic centers like Russell, Cowens and Parish.
- Summer 2010 free agency bonanza – I’m talking about you: Joey Graham, Manny Harris and Samardo Samuels. This is straight out of the instruction manual for “how to fill the void left when the game’s best player and your stalwart center leave”.
- Waived Danny Green in October 2010 – Speaking of a huge hole at SF, Cleveland sent Mr. Green packing prior to the start of the 2010 – 2011 season. Now the playoffs beckon for him, as a valuable role player on one of the NBA’s best teams. An Irving – Gee – Green backcourt surpasses any lineup the Cavs have fielded this year.
- Free agency bonanza of 2011 – Please stand up, Mr. Anthony Parker and Mychel Thompson! Have I said anything about Danny Green in this post?
Those are the bulk of the moves the Cavs have made since Chris Grant took over as GM. Despite the lack of any overwhelmingly shrewd move (winning the lottery doesn’t count), only one regrettable decision shows up (waiving Green). The direction of the franchise appears to be very positive; clearing out the leftovers from the 2009 – 2010 team other than Varejao, while stockpiling draft picks and cap space. The door should be open to a relatively quick turnaround. This summer serves as Mr. Grant’s next crucial opportunity to transform the Cleveland Cavaliers into a winner of his making; with four decent draft selections and hoards of cap space, next season the Cavs need to be competitive in the East while maintaining room to grow. We certainly hope he passes that test.
Part 2 – How many players can you roster in the NBA?
Cleveland has amassed so many draft picks, they almost literally can’t use them all. One year after picking 1st and 4th, Cleveland is the only NBA team owning more than five first round draft picks over the next four drafts. Cleveland’s eight 1st round draft picks far outpace anyone else. Add those to seven second-round selections, and Cleveland has a roster’s worth of available options to add to Kyrie & TT. What all these picks could facilitate is the subject of a different, speculative column. Instead, I’ll just touch on how sneakily good most of their “extra” first round picks can be. Currently owned draft picks from other teams include:
• Lakers’ pick in 2012. Potentially the worst pick of the haul.
• Option of Lakers or Heat first round pick in 2013. Assuming Ron Artest picks up his option, the Lakers have six players under contract next season for $75 million. At the start of the season; Kobe and Pau will be 34 and 32, respectively, and coming off a hyper-aggressive NBA season and the summer Olympics. Andrew Bynum is never a guarantee to play more than 50 games. The other three players are Ron Artest, Steve Blake, and Christian Eyenga. Implosion is not beyond the realm of possibilities. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Lakers pick fell at 13 or 28 next year.
• The Kings pick will probably come in 2014 (top 12 protected) or 2015 (top 10 protected). When the Cavs do get this pick, it is almost certain to be in the 12 – 15 range.
• In 2014 – 2015, Miami might be NBA champs, or their roster may be completely turned over; the entire range of possibilities exists there. The six players currently under contract in 2014 – 2015 cost $76 million. All of those players will lose some tread of their tires by then, and the Big 3 have contract options after next season. Lebron will be 30 with 1000 career games, Wade starts the season at 33 and approaching 1000 punishing games, Bosh nears 1000 career games, Mike Miller and Udonis Haslem hit 34, and Joel Anthony is 32. Like next year’s Lakers, a huge range of outcomes seem feasible.
The next month looks dire, but with the likely rookie of the year, a trove of draft picks, and great cap flexibility; I keep painting a silver lining on the cloud cast by another month chockful of double digit defeats.
@Cranky-As a Tar Heels fan and follower, I totally agree with your assessment of Barnes. Completely overrated coming out of high school and has been very “meh” for the team all year. See the NCAA Tourney games against Ohio and Kansas as prime examples. Had the chance to completely take over those games and shrunk from the moment. I think he’ll be a poor man’s Danny Granger in the NBA, which is fine on a team like Miami, OKC, or Chicago, not fine on anyone else’s team in the league. I think the Cavs are still 3-4 years away from… Read more »
@Cranky
GS fan here, it may actually be more effective for the Dubs to build a life size scarecrow out of the money they are paying Bieds than allow him to continue to play the game of basketball.
Also great point about Leonard and Green w/ SA. I still think Leonard has legit NBA skills, they are just maximized there.
Also, just because i didn’t get to post this in yesterday’s thread: I can only assume that everybody hoping we draft Barnes with our first pick has never actually seen him play. Saying they hope we end up with the 4th or 5th pick so we can get Banres…that is WAY too high for Barnes. It seems everybody is basing their opinion of him upon all of the hype surrounding him when he first headed to NC. There has certainly been absolutely nothing about his play over the past 2 years to justify him being such a high draft pick.… Read more »
HoopsDogg,
I’m pretty sure Ferry had full control over the operations, as per his contract. When Ferry’s contract ran out in 2010, he would not cede control to Gilbert in the new contract that Gilbert wanted him to sign. They parted ways.
A) Leonard would not have been better than Thompson with the number 4 pick. He may be playing better at the moment, but it’s not like they play in a vacuum; Leonard has the benefit of playing for a very good Spurs team, for which he is only asked to play a very specific role that is catered to his strengths. He would not be nearly as good of a fit in Cleveland. Same with Green. Does nobody remember how terrible he was while he was with the Cavs? I don’t think he got markedly better; like Leonard, i think… Read more »
I think Grant wasn’t going to take short term reaches on FA in hopes of improving the team for a season or two and sit in no-man’s land.
I often wonder if the problem was less Danny Ferry, and more Dan Gilbert. It’s the GM’s job to fall on their sword for the owner, and I don’t know what percentage was Danny, and what was Dan (like the inexcusable Christian Eyenga pick, when DuJaun Blair was sitting there).
Kevin – isn’t that why we brought Ferry in originally? It just didn’t pan out the same way. Maybe it’s the water. Or, more simply, Gregg Popovich. How long has he been there by now?
GoCAVS,
The Spurs are amazing. There’s no doubt about that. Whatever they are doing from a player development perspective should be what every other team in the league is attempting to mimic.
Scuzz,
Point taken. Hopefully the team can add a starter via free agency this summer.
Right when the #32 trade went down, I was really confused as to what Grant was doing (especially after the incredible disappointment/anger that followed the surprise at #4). But looking at that trade now it seems like it was a low risk/medium reward strategy. I was disappointed we didn’t use the pick on a wing like Honeycutt or Parsons, but if they really didn’t like any of the players, why not try to “cash in” on Dwight leaving Orlando? If he does leave after next year, the 2014 2nd rounder will be worth holding. Harper was never going to play… Read more »
@ Kevin
“Joey Graham? Re-signing Anthony Parker? I know Cleveland is not a free agent hot spot, but is this really all that could have been added via free agency over the last two off-seasons.”
They did sign Kyle Lowry to an offer sheet. They tried with Matt Barnes too.
There is one move that I will knock Grant for. Trading Justin Haper to Orlando for more 2nd round picks. Not sure I saw the point of that. I suppose if Orlando had traded DH and was really bad, those picks are at the top of the round, but even that seems weak. Harper is 6’10 and shot 44% on 3pt his last season in college. The Cavs could sure use that when the opponent is crowding the paint against Kyrie and Alonzo.
Kevin, You’re right, and you definitely couldn’t not include the move in the article. Given how shallow we are at the 2 position, we could certainly use an “average” player there now (words can’t describe how below average Parker and Casspi have been). Of course there are questions like “would he have been average in our system?” or “why do the Spurs constantly find these guys and turn them into average players?” I guess my point was only, while it is certainly a mark against Grant, cutting a second round draft pick who disappears for a year and re-emerges as… Read more »
Maybe. I think last year was the year of: let’s spend as little as possible, and cash in on as much of the season ticket sales as possible. However, I do think this year was all about the tank. When there was a glimmer that we’d be competitive, he and Gilbert probably toyed with the idea of making a run (probably just for the miniscule chance we could play the Heat in the first round, and the even more miniscule chance we could win some games or even beat them outright… I wouldn’t put that past Gilbert). But as the… Read more »
HoopsDogg,
This comment will be somewhat facetious, but do you think that Grant has been tanking for a couple of years?
Joey Graham? Re-signing Anthony Parker? I know Cleveland is not a free agent hot spot, but is this really all that could have been added via free agency over the last two off-seasons.
Also trading the #32 pick in last year’s draft would fit into this pattern. Even amnestying Baron Davis, maybe.
I understand that players similar to Green are cut frequently and that no team makes perfect talent evaluations all the time. On the flip side though, sometimes people will give Grant credit for his talent evaluation in finding Gee. To some extent, I’m not sure how much credit there is to give though. Over the last two years, the Cavs have signed Gee, Mychel Thompson, Manny Harris, Samardo Samuels & Donald Sloan to cheap contracts. They traded for Sehih Erden and Luke Harangody. Basically one of seven “edge of the bench” fliers has turned into an NBA player. Is that… Read more »
Actually, I’d argue that given all this talk of starting sub-optimal players to ensure a better lottery pick, cutting Danny Green was exactly the kind of “eschewing mediocrity” move the Cavs needed to make.
GoCAVS, Green is not an all-star, but with a 13.8 PER, win shares per 48 of 0.108 and adjusted +/- of 0.54; he’s nearly exactly an NBA average player this season. Nothing wrong with that. That’s a lot more than what can be said for Omri Casspi, Anthony Parker, Mychel Thompson, Christian Eyenga, etc, who have been brought in / retained to play SG & SF. I know that Grant’s legacy won’t be defined by the decision to waive Danny Green, but it certainly looks like a sub-optimal decision. And if you’re trying to loosely evaluate his personnel decisions to… Read more »
Stuff like dropping Danny Green happens all the time. Look at how many teams had Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups before they became great players. Look at Alonze Gee. I’m sure the Spurs and Wizards would like him back. Even Varejao was a throw in to Cleveland when they traded for Gooden. It’s really hard to fault Grant on Green.
Yeah, I forgot about Brandon Rush, Aaron. I had him on my list. I think he might be a one dimensional player though, which means if you can get him for a reasonable price, great, but don’t overpay. Also, a lot of the way this draft shakes out will be up to Portland, and whether or not the get New Jersey’s pick (top 3 protected). If they decide to blow it up, there could be some pieces to be had. If they get #4, Wesley Matthews may be available or Nic Batum. God what a panic trade New Jersey made… Read more »
Everyone is on Grant for the Danny Green thing and I know he’s working on the “reputation” of being a “contributor” on a contender. The guy is shooting .415 from the field, is a good, not elite three point shooter and posting a sub 14 PER. It’s not like we dropped a future all-star. Leonard on the other hand is a baller. We weren’t the only ones who didn’t see it coming. Damn Spurs
The restricted FA shooting guard we should target, in my opinion, is Brandon Rush. Not a star, but he won’t break the bank. He is the type of player that we should be surrounding Kyrie with. We don’t need someone to create their own shot unless they are our primary bench scorer. We need shooters to put with Kyrie, and that’s what Rush does extremely well. 44% 3-point shooter this year. 41% the previous two seasons. He is still only 26 and he has good size as well.
I think Eric Gordon is possible, but….
1) If they draft Beal or Lamb, there’s no need.
2) You’ll have to outbid the Pacers. They have the cap room, and the Pacers typically don’t approach the tax line, whereas the Cavs have no problems with it.
3) The knee should be a serious concern. We don’t know the status of it and he’s had problems with the same knee before. Thoughts of Brandon Roy come to mind. I’d feel much better about it if he played a few games before the end of the season.
This draft will be telling. Who we get and how we get them (e.g. do we trade futur first rounders to get a top 3 pick) will say a lot about Grants strategy. Improving through the draft is obvious, however, at some point we are going to have to make a splash in the FA market. Maybe this draft we try to get 2 top 10 picks (possibly a solid wing and a solid C) and in the second round a back-up PG or additional wing. A core of Kyrie, TT (if we don’t somehow luck into Davis) and two… Read more »
Eric Gordon maybe would get a huge deal as well. Pacers maybe?
I wouldn’t mind Asik/Batum/Anderson at all, if the Cavs wound up with someone like Beal or Jeremy Lamb. I think Anderson and Asik might get huge contracts, unfortunately.
I am not sold on Hibbert. I would much rather the Cavs consider throwing money at Eric Gordon, Nic Batum, and/or maybe Ryan Anderson (I’m becoming convinced he’s Troy Murphy 2.0). I’d like to see them throw a moderate amount of money at Omer Asik, Robin Lopez (convinced he’s been trapped on the wrong team for years), Jason Thompson… Not a lot of great stuff out there, but our cap room should help if someone wants to ship someone off.
In retrospect I had the typical GM “you can’t teach size!” view there.
Also, Mallory, Okafor appears to have some knee problems.
Also, Danny Green was let go because he was having a very hard time adjusting to Scott’s system, and Manny Harris was outplaying him. Manny Harris might still outplay him if he ever got a chance to play. As for Chris Grant, we simply won’t know for a couple years if TT was a good pick (though next fall should tell us a lot). I will say that he hasn’t screwed it up yet, and I’m ready to eat crow and say that Derick Williams over Kyrie would have been screwing it up. This draft and offseason though, he can’t… Read more »
TRUCK. LOAD. OF MONEY.
(Yeah I don’t think regardless of how he plays right now he’ll wind up with the Cavs anyway)
@ Pete
If they get a C in the draft, I doubt they’ll try to sign Hibbert. Plus, I’m not totally sure he fits in Scott’s offense. Hibbert is a more traditional center, I think Scott would prefer one that can run. With that in mind, Cody Zeller would make sense. Not saying he’s the top target. Just that it wouldn’t be a bad pick.
Pete,
I went to the Pacers – Wizards game last night with my neighbor. As we watched Nene, traded fresh after signing a $65 million contract, battle Hibbert, who was on his way to 9 points & 3 rebounds, we discussed how Hibbert will probably be overpaid this off-season.
My inclination is that someone is going to pay Hibbert more than he is worth this off-season, and I hope it is not the Cavs.
Keep this in mind about Danny Green- he’s on a team that is arguably the best at scouting for and properly utilizing role players. There’s no guarantee that the Cavs would have ended up with what Green is giving the Spurs now.
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/39546/the-oklahoma-city-unicorns
Compelling article for all you Cavs fans who want us to enact “the Thunder’s model to success.” Some of us have been saying, “not as advisable as you might think.”
What are your thoughts on trying to trade up in the draft if we get the 7th pick or worse? We could send our 2 first round picks and maybe a player for a top 3 pick.
http://hoopshype.com/general_managers/danny_ferry.htm
Ferry’s Reign. Not good not terrible. Probably less of a let down than his playing days with the Cavs (based on expectation and a 10yr deal).
I actually like the idea of adding Okafor. He’s on for a lot of money, but he’s a good defender (not that we need one, but he’s decent enough if we get another asset too),
I’ve been pleased with Grant’s job thus far. He moved on from the Lebron era which was needed and the haul he’s gotten back thus far has been impressive. Thompson should benefit greatly from a full offseason to work on his game. He looks completely lost on the court but still produces (at times). He reminds me of Tyrus Thomas with work ethic and I’d take him over Hickson in a heartbeat. The Cavs should have over $20 million in cap room and it will be interesting to see if they are willing to take on another back contract to… Read more »
Also I have a feeling that after we grab a couple of impact players early in the draft and hopefully can sign a couple of important complementary pieces (not necessarily franchise saviors but good pieces) we will start trading these excess picks we have and become buyers for those last couple of pieces to put the Cavs over the top.
Throw a dump truck of money at Roy Hibbert.
Hollins asked for a buyout, to be fair.
Just want to point out that the amnesty thing was hardly luck. ESPN and whatever other sports news organizations are out there were basically attaching the likelihood of an amnesty clause to every move that was made in 2010. It was pretty much a foregone conclusion that an amnesty clause would be included in the new deal and teams acted accordingly. All around the league. Besides, I loved the short time we had with Baron. He’s one of my favorite players to watch, even overweight. So far, I’m extremely pleased with Grant. Of course, we’ve still yet to see what… Read more »
I’m not at all sold on Grant yet. Getting Kyrie was lucky, taking on all that salary with Baron was IMO foolish, getting the ability to amnesty Baron was lucky and using the Amnesty on him this year as oppose to next was foolish. Picking up TT instead of JV – I’m undecided. K. Leonard was a possibility at #4 and based on their rookie seasons, seems like we should have went with Leonard. But passing on JV and seeing how he plays 2-3 years from now will be the real ‘base’ for knowing if this was a solid selection… Read more »
Great article Kevin, and interesting responses Kyle and Bacon (haha). Kyle – I think you’re mostly right that, given how bad we are right now, it’s a top 3 or bust. I have no illusions of how good (or bad) we really are without Ramon and Andy. Those three you mentioned are going to make the biggest impact, and if we don’t get one it turns into a major crap shoot. Bacon – I think a high risk/high reward type signing or trade is a great idea – we have a ton of cap space and as long as they… Read more »
Chris Grant has a huge amount of options the next few years, and we can basically understand his approach after this draft/FA period. Obviously its to early to really speculate since the draft order determines so much but the big signing i would like to see is Greg Oden Frankly with all their cap space they can eat a 2 year deal with Oden if he never really plays again without caring. Offering him 2 years of G’d money and 2 team option years and you have the upside of a top center for 20 mins a game and the… Read more »
Davis, MKG, Beal or bust this year. I see only Charlotte, Washington, and New Orleans finishing below us for sure and the Cavs/NJ will be interchangeable at 4/5. I would think that gives us a decent mathematically chance at one of those 3.