Cavalier Repair Manual (and Live Thread)

Well trade deadline season started early! There’ve been lots of rumors flying around the last couple days. The general consensus is that the Cleveland Cavaliers are broken, and while the front office can’t fix all of the Cavalier problems, they certainly can improve themselves. So welcome to Nate’s tune-up garage.

The first step to fixing the Cavs is to admit they’re broken and to admit they’re not going to fix their problems from within. I’m not saying this is the case (though it’s seeming increasingly likely), but for the sake of this article, let’s suppose it is. We could debate it for hours, but if the Cavs are going to make changes, they have to make them quickly, decisively, and not be sentimental. No player, coach, or administrator should be safe, save Dan Gilbert (it’s his team) and LeBron James (who can’t be traded) when pursuing the goal of winning another championship and creating a team that LeBron wants to re-sign with. Changes like these are hard, but the longer the Cavs put them off, the less time they will have to adjust to the changes, you know like ignoring that rattle your car gets at 62 MPH.

Step 1. Make a plan to re-sign LeBron James.

The organization’s goal should be to improve as much as they can and present a long term vision entice LeBron to re-sign long term. LeBron is eligible to sign a five year $200 million dollar super max contract with Cleveland in the summer. If he does not sign it this summer, he will be too old to sign a “Supermax” in 2019. There are few players in NBA history worth paying that much money into their late 30s. The list is probably LeBron, Michael Jordan, and Kareem. Jordan won his last championship at 36, and Kareem at 41. As such, keeping the Brooklyn pick to ensure a long term future of contention for James should be paramount. WFNY’s Jeff Nomina explains well.

Here’s me arguing that keeping the Brooklyn pick helps the Cavs keep LeBron – which gives a way better chance at a ring than a win-now move. https://t.co/tgUJCOzE8O

— SportsNom (@SportsNom) January 19, 2018

This draft looks the most loaded draft since 2003. I don’t care who you are, if you had a decent shot at LeBron, Wade, Carmelo, or Bosh in 2003, you’d have been a fool not to take it. There is no one the Cavs can get who will be a better long term selling point to LeBron than a player from the top of this coming draft. Everything laid out below supports the idea of keeping the pick and keeping LeBron.

Step 2. Change the Coaching

As EvilGenius noted on our last podcast, the Cavs have been an abject disaster defensively since Mike Longabardi took over as the defensive coordinator. They’ve been at the bottom or near the bottom of the NBA since. The dude has got to go. The question is, who do the Cavs put in his place to run the defense? Just getting a guy off the street is about impossible this time of year. I don’t have an answer for this. Does another coach take over? Do they promote James Posey? Does Ty Lue take over? Do they bring in David Fizdale? Anything has to be better than driving on rims.

Speaking of Fizdale, at least for the purposes of this article, I’m out on Tyronn Lue. I’ve said for time immemorial that teams reflect the demeanor of their leaders. The Cavs’ leaders are dismissive, disengaged on and off the court, display a dispassion that mirrors Ty’s. He rarely displays any emotion on the court, never defends his players with the officials, and just seems so damned passive. That passivity has permeated to his team, and more than anything, that is the part that needs repaired.

As we’ve talked about many times, the Cavs will find success and often abandon it for no discernable reason. Whether it’s going to Love in the post in the first half, playing the Dinobots lineup in 2017, playing the Wildcat lineup in 2016, playing Cedi Osman, or just abandoning right wing pick-and-roll, the Cavaliers don’t double down on success. This could be Lue’s fault, or it could be Peanut Butter and Jelly running the show. Either way, the Cavs have to get someone they’ll listen to. Enter motivational mechanic, David Fizdale.

Fizdale was a well respected assistant in Miami and guided Memphis to 43-39 record in his first (and only complete) season with Memphis despite the annual absences of  Marc Gasol’s (out 30 game), Mike Conley (out 26 games), Zach Randolph (out 14 games) and probably had a better effect on Jeff Green than we realized. His teams are tough, his game plans are no-nonsense, and he did a nice job of developing young players like JaMychal Green. He also is firey and passionate, whether it comes to “take that for data!” or confederate monuments. The dude is a breath of fresh air. Fire Lue and Longabardi, install Larry Drew as interim coach for a couple days and bring in Fiz, if nothing else than for his attitude.

Oh, and did I mention LeBron and Wade love the dude? Might be good for recruiting. Just saying. And if LeBron leaves? You’ve still got a great coach.

Step 3. Replace your Broken Isaiah Thomas

There’s a saying in poker that says, “Don’t throw bad money after good,” Meaning, if you took a bad beat don’t do stupid things to try to recoup your losses. As they’d say in economics, I.T. is a sunk cost. He was the centerpiece of the Kyrie Irving trade, and there will be a large overoptimistic probability bias on the part of the organization to think that he’s going to be a part of a championship formula. He’s not. Here’s a recent quote from a conversation with CtB’s Ben Werth on Thomas.

He’d have to be LeBron good on offense to make up for his defensive sucktitude. He’s not. I’ve noticed his stride is much shorter this year than last year. He’s clearly not comfortable post injury, but it still doesn’t make up for his complete disinterest on D. He didn’t even get backdoored last night. That requires someone to stick high enough to get backdoored. He just stands there in a completely non ready position.

The dude couldn’t help a team win against high level competition at his best, and right now he looks like a shell of himself. Despite being all-NBA second team last year, he was still a traffic cone on defense and now appears worse. It’s a testament to Brad Stevens that he was able to hide the fact that NBA teams are basically playing four-on-five on defense when Thomas is on the floor, but it’s telling that the only game Boston took from Cleveland in the 2017 playoffs was when Thomas was out.

By all accounts Isaiah seems like a great person with the heart of a lion. But there are so many red flags here. I’ve absolutely no medical or professional qualifications to back up my claims, but my gut is that Thomas, in a contract year, opted for rehab for his ailing hip instead of surgery, in a quest to be able to play this year and get a payday. Thomas, in years past, has said that a team would have to bring “the Brinks truck” when signing him this coming summer, and that he’s a “max contract guy.” He’s not. It’s a shame that he played far and above his $7 million dollar cap number when he was in Boston, but that’s not the Cavs’ problem.

Thomas is awful right now. And frankly shouldn’t be starting. Running against second units to get himself going? Maybe. But in six games, he’s got a 47 TS% and a net rating of 93 on offense and 117 on defense. That’s right the Cavs are -24 per 100 possessions when he’s on the floor. Unless Thomas shows the Cavs something in the next few games, he shouldn’t be thought of as anything more than an expiring contract for trade purposes. And even if he returns to something close to form, he should not be a starting point guard. He’s best running second units where his defensive liabilities can be minimized. Right now with Thomas, the Cavs have the worst starting unit in the NBA.

The Cavs can’t allow themselves to be beholden to Thomas just because they don’t want to admit they got fleeced by Danny Ainge and because Dan Gilbert loves short players. The Cavs should move on.

Step 4. Upgrades

We’ve spent weeks dissecting who’s not getting it done on this Cavs team and why they need to go. I’ll spare you the rehash, but Tristan Thompson, Isaiah Thomas, J.R. Smith, Iman Shumpert, and Derrick Rose should all be considered expendable. Everyone else save LeBron, Wade (Bron’s Jack Haley), and probably Love should probably be in play for the right deal.

I covered a lot of the guys currently being discussed as trade targets in late November, and listed the Cavs’ assets then.

Channing Frye’s $7.4 million dollar expiring deal… Derrick Rose… Iman Shumpert (two years $21.3 million remaining), Tristan Thompson (three years $52.4 million remaining), Jae Crowder (three years $21.9 million remaining – one of the better bargains in the nba), and Isaiah Thomas in the last year of his deal ($6.3 million)…

Cleveland also has their own first round pick this year, Brooklyn’s first round pick… a couple second round picks in the future (the maze of protections and conditions is too impossible to explain), and a 2021 first.

Remember, Cleveland must draft in the first round this year, so if they trade the Brooklyn pick, they must keep their own, and vice versa, unless another 2018 first rounder comes their way.

The Cavs need at least one guard, at least one wing, and a guy who can bang. I discussed several targets in the November article, but the goal to me is not to give up major assets for guys on expiring deals like Rodney Hood or DeAndre Jordan. If you are going to get a guy on an expiring deal, get someone like Nerlens Noel where the price shouldn’t be too steep (because he is never re-signing in Dallas).

So I give you the mother of all trades. It’s actually easier to navigate if you do it all in one trade (and makes the matching salaries easier). Utah, giving up the most, gets Clevelands’s 2018 first. Atlanta, for renting its cap space gets a 2021 first from Cleveland, Cedi Osman, the right to trade picks with Cleveland in 2020 (with limited protections), a future first and second from Sacramento (and maybe some pick switching – Zach Randolph is expensive). Sacramento gets Zizic and the right to dump a bunch of salary after this year. There could be some shuffling of the deck chairs, but this deal could work.

What this trade does, and what all Cleveland trades should do is give them a ton of three and D guys. All of these guys are good shooters. The worst of the lot, Dedmon and Hill, are 38% from three, Dedmon is a good rebounder and shotblocker, and frankly, a ten times better fit than Derrick Favors. Yes, this leaves the Cavs a bit thin up front, but they’d have three roster spots to add guys on minimum deals. Baze, Ingles, and Hill are all good passers, and the Cavs also get much more athletic at the wing. Despite his outsized contract, Ingles is a very good shooter, good defender, and general all-around tough guy who can defend three spots and even run a little point.

And yes, I know I violated my own rules and included Hood. He’s still a good wing who can guard three spots and he is one of many of these guys who would give the Cavs a good team even if LeBron walks.

Atlanta gets a bevy of picks and Cedi Osman (which makes me sad), and Utah gets a pick, cap relief, and Isaiah Thomas who could be a very good guard for them if he heals, while Sacramento gets to take two bad contracts off their books that don’t fit. Would I like more rebounding? Sure. Would I like another guy who can handle the ball? Sure, but if you want a team that can run with the Dubs, defend, spell the Cavs’ vets and spread the floor, this team can do it. Every Cavs trade should have these goals in mind. Don’t give the Cavs’ coaching staff the option to even play guys who can’t shoot from three.

Most importantly, with David Fizdale coaching this team and Bazemore, Ingles, Hill, and Walt Guffman (my name for the Brooklyn pick) all available next year, this is a team that can re-sign  LeBron and compete for a championship with for multiple seasons (albeit an expensive one). This is going all in, and competing in the future. When they’re all done, the Cavaliers should look like this.

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Live Thread – If you like the piece, stick around for a live thread of the OKC game. The only guy on the injury report continues to be Iman Shumpert, who won’t play today. Andre Roberson will probably limited due to a recent ankle injury, but other than that, it’s a full go for both teams. OKC is 17-8 since the start of December and have won three straight. They get 80 points a night out of their starting lineup, which is now among the league’s most formidable. Slowing them down and pressing the bench advantage is the key to victory against them.

Unfortunately, I’m betting the Cavs don’t get it done, and that this is yet another straw on the Camel’s back as Cleveland limps towards change. (Meekly) Go Cavs.