The Randoms: Draft Week

Welcome to the NBA offseason, Cavs fans, where good decisions go to die. The next three weeks will mark the nadir of NBA intelligence as fans, teams, players, and, yes, writers make baffling choices, express thoughts they’ll almost immediately regret, and take actions that they’ll either celebrate (probably not) or rue (probably) for years to come. For every Giannis
Antetokounmpo that is drafted, some team will sign the next Nic Batum $120 million dollars.

The Lakers started off this festival with the biggest trade in NBA history in terms of future first round picks, by giving New Orleans the ability to control LA’s next seven first round drafts. Plus, the Lakers gave up two No. 2 overall picks in Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball. Neither of these guys are any great shakes, (especially Ball – who Griff will move by next February), but it was possibly the biggest haul ever for a guy who will be a free agent in 12 months. To top it all off Pelinka timed the trade in such a way as to cut himself out of close to $8 million in cap room and limit himself to just $24 million to spread around the Lakers’ remaining roster needs. Finally, somehow, he didn’t get Davis, a guy who desperately wanted to be traded, to agree to waive his $4 million dollar trade kicker. Yeesh.

Pelinka’s incompetence might actually end up helping the Lakers, though. Instead of chasing a third “Superstar” the Lakers will probably have to spread this money over 2-3 role players and help the Lakers fill out their desperately thin roster. This could serve them better long term than Bron, AD, Kuzma, and “insert third star here.” Part of me was a bit baffled with the obsession over Kemba Walker, a guy who is good off ball, but because of his size, isn’t great, and would – again – take the ball out of Bron’s hands.

Lots of people have mentioned Patrick Beverly as a possible replacement for the now impossible to sign Walker, and (injury history aside) it’s a good fit. But PBev has never gotten a big NBA payday and this is his chance. I fully expect him to chase the bag. Something tells me there’s no $10 million part in Space Jams 2 and 3 that could get him to LA-LA land. Regardless, this was a coup for David Griffin whose Pelicans teams will reap the rewards of Laker incompetence for years after LeBron’s two year window has closed.

Yep. Two years. LeBron is 34 now, and will be 35 in December. Only Kareem, Stockton, Duncan, and Malone have played elite level basketball past 35, though Jordan probably could have. But 37? I’m skeptical.

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As for the Cavs, there’s been lots of talk about trading down and also who they’ll pick at 5. I’ve made my opinions clear that Brandon Clarke is the second best player in the draft. Maybe I’ll get the chance to put my case in writing before Thursday’s draft, but in case I don’t, check out the fantastic work the guys at the Stepien have done covering the draft. I’ll also point you to his piece by Cole Zwicker: “The Uniqueness of Brandon Clarke.”

What this draft does have is two historically elite functional athletes who are good basketball players, who know how to play and who can play potentially difference-making versatile defense. One is in his own stratosphere as a generational talent. The other is Brandon Clarke…

Zwicker goes on to note that Clarke, despite having a sub seven foot wingspan, is a “world class” athlete and one of the best athletic prospects in NBA history. Now while there have been plenty of amazing athletes in NCAA history, there are very few that have combined that athletic ability with dominating on-the-court play. For every Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James, there’s a D.J. Stephens and Jamario Moon. But Clarke combines amazing athleticism with actual, amazing on-the-court play, instead of dunking or shooting alone in a gym.

Clarke led the NCAA in FG%, blocks, offensive rating, defensive rating, Wins Shares, WS/48, and was No. 2 behind Zion in Box Plus/Minus. Oh, and there’s this.

NBA Draft: FG% on 2-pointers away from the rim according to https://t.co/cMFPQ7z5gY (min. 20 att)

Brandon Clarke – 53%
Grant Williams – 52%
Bruno Fernando – 47%
Zion Williamson – 47%
Tyler Herro – 47%
Rui Hachimura – 45%
PJ Washington – 45%
Bol Bol – 45%
DeAndre Hunter – 43%
…

— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) May 31, 2019

That’s right, not only is Clarke the second best finisher in the draft, behind Zion, he’s the best non-dunking two point shooter in the NCAA. Now I get it, a lot of this is against the scrubs Gonzaga plays in the West Coast Conference. Their strength of schedule was 46th. But lets not pretend that Clarke didn’t put up huge games against ranked opponents, like his 17 point, 6 block game versus Duke, or his 36/8/3 game with five blocks and two steals against Baylor in the second round of the tourney.

But, yes, despite amazing touch, Clarke still has bad mechanics on his three-ball. What is special though, is Clarke’s work ethic, to have completely overhauled his shot in three years, improving from a 56% free throw shooter to 70% free throw shooter, and taking a stroke that would make Shawn Marion and MKG blush to at least a point where you can envision him being a solid catch-and-shoot player. Heck. If Bruce Bowen can do it. Anyone can. That kind of work ethic is special. Brandon Clarke will be a quality scorer in the NBA.

Brandon Clarke 100 percent from the corner pic.twitter.com/XtahE6BB9u

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) May 31, 2019

And yes, I know he’s already 22. You know who was also 22 when he came into the league? Pascal Siakam? You know who was 23? Larry Nance Jr. The old adage that your development curve stops when you hit 23-24 is just not true for everyone, and further, may be a function of correlation and not causation. Maybe teams are giving up on players developing new skills when they get to their mid-20s, when they shouldn’t be.

Anyway, enough talk about his offense. Clarke is going to be an insane defender: a top two defender in this draft. He was the captain of Gonzaga’s D, showed Rui Hachimura where to be, and will be able to guard 1-4 in the NBA and some 5s.

I didn't see it (but I didn't watch fully so not guaranteed)
But let's watch his beaufiful slide steps. pic.twitter.com/HI8XfrEURf

— Skyfall (@polarfall) May 17, 2019

I’ll spare you the details, but he’s everything you want in a switch defender who can guard all over the floor. As Ben Werth noted a few weeks back, there are no tradition positions in the NBA anymore. With a frontcourt of Kevin Love and Larry Nance, Clarke can guard the three, because both of these guys have the floor stretching ability to allow Clarke to be a roller/cutter/crasher.  Put that in a lineup with a defensive 2 (which Cedi can be), and you have three good defenders with Love and Sexton. Those last two aren’t ideal but as a lineup fit, it shouldn’t be a problem. The Cavs desperately need a backup 4 as well, and Clarke will fit that bill. End Scene.

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Speaking of Collin Sexton, this Darius Garland talk is maddening. I hope it’s just to increase the value of the pick in case someone is trying to trade up (which reportedly, someone is).

Being told ATL Hawks in deep talks w/ CLE sending 10 + 17 to CLE for 5. Also told deal could possibly expand to include Kevin Love, but not there yet. @929TheGame @MikeConti929

— Paul Crane (@PaulCrane7) June 18, 2019

The Cavs hit an absolute home run when they took a gamble on Sexton last year. No one thought he could shoot like he did, and no one saw him adjusting his game as quickly as he did. He’s coachable, unbelievably hard working, and has a malleable skill set. I don’t know why’d you’d hinder him by putting him with another ball-dominant short guard who can’t defend. If you didn’t read David’s piece Saturday, you should. Garland is the Emporer’s New Clothes.

Essentially, this draft is so weak that Garland’s lack of college games kept him from showing as many flaws as the guards who played more games. The top of the guard class this year would not be the top most other years.

In a draft that isn’t top heavy, Garland doesn’t get you anything other than (possibly) high level shooting, and (possibly) handle. He’s not a good finisher, passer, or defender. Sure he can work on his game, but I’d still draft Sexton ahead of him for speed and work ethic. I’ve read in more than one place that Sexton would be a top five pick in this draft, and people are still saying Collin’s best role might be as a bench scorer.  But for a guy who completely turned his game around last year and has impressed with his endless work ethic, why would you not give him every opportunity to be the best he can be, and not bring in someone with a duplicate skill set that isn’t complementary? Teams lose their minds a little this time of year.

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I’m betting that Daryl Morey won’t be GM of the Rockets next year. Why? Because Tillman Fertitta seems like an unpleasant man to work for, and the Rockets are a mess. First was the bizarre “everyone is tradeable” news from the Rockets. Then was the “off again/on again/off again” contract extension for Mike D’Antoni. See below for the first “off.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrI3_LhvF14

Then James Harden and CP3 started beefing (as if anyone couldn’t have seen that coming). Now Fertitta is complaining about CP3’s $160 million contract, even “in front of rival executives.” Remember, this was the price of getting CP3 in the first place, as he opted into the final year of his previous contract with the Clippers in order to be traded to the Rockets for PBev and parts. The wink-wink-nod-nod agreement was always that the Rockets would offer CP3 a new deal, and that wink probably probably implied a max deal. But that “agreement” was made when Leslie Alexander was the owner, and before he sold the team for $2.2 billion to Tillman.

There were rumors that Fertitta was balking at re-signing CP3 to the max before he even signed it, and my bet is that Morey took him aside and said it was the price of doing business, and if if they didn’t no agent would trust them again. Well, Tillman is still complaining about it. There’s only a matter of time before Morey – who now is coiffed like someone releasing a hostage video after being held for six months in a Brooklyn co-op – and Fertitta – who is only one Mike Pence away from being the next Cotton Hill – stop blaming the Golden Turd, D’Antoni, and Cliff Paul’s brother and start blaming each other for the fact they built their team around a guy whose game falls apart when refs stop calling fouls.

For all the good moves Morey has made, he’s made some disastrous ones (Ahem, Carmelo Anthony and Ryan Anderson). Morey needs to start over somewhere doing something he’s great at: building rosters out of marginal draft picks, smart free agent signings, and great trades. Meanwhile Fertitta can concentrate on being a Texas sized Vivek Ranadive.

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So this was one of my worst tweets ever.

Love the blog, love the pod, but this is a bad take. You think there is only one woman qualified for an NBA coaching position? Any other woman is a token hire?

— Leigh Jackson (@OysterMonkey) June 13, 2019

Leigh was probably right to call me out on it, and I have no idea if they interviewed Hammond. I wish Lindsay Gottlieb all the luck in the world, and she seems as qualified as anyone.

I followed up that doozy with this one today.

Wiggins/wolves pick + future first for 25, Tristan Thompson, Delly? With the stipulation they stretch Delly so he can be re-signed. https://t.co/l3ivDVAKWz

— HoopsDogg (@oldseaminer) June 18, 2019

Yikes. Still Wiggins is so intriguing… God, someone stop me before I tweet again on draft week. It makes everyone dumb. Good thing Magic quit to do it more often.

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Finally, winning this week’s “Cringie,” the award for the hot take that elicits the week’s most unpleasant facial expression: ESPN’s Kevin Arnovitz. He penned this gem titled “Let Zion Williamson choose where he wants to play next.” Oy. He’s basically saying that the NBA should do away with the draft and let players choose where they want to play.

In a league where the product is the talent, why do employers get to interview the potential employees, but not the other way around? As Williamson embarks on building a global brand for himself over a career whose prime will come and go in about a dozen years, he might even have certain standards about what kind of person or businessman an NBA owner should be. Why is disqualification a one-way street, whereby no team has to employ a player whose character it finds questionable, but no incoming rookie has the right to dismiss an owner he and his family might think is sketchy?

First, the glaring, enormous flaws in Arnovitz’ logic around making players happier by giving them, “a say in where you work and live” is three-fold. One: this isn’t Communist China. No one is holding a gun to these kids’ heads forcing them to play basketball. They’re perfectly free to play baseball, football, badminton, or the stock market. They’re free to be florists, journalists, surgeons, or grocery store clerks. Two: no one is forcing these kids to play in the NBA. They can play anywhere in the world they can get a Visa. They can play in the Big3. They can play in any number of smaller leagues in the U.S. Third: the draft is collectively bargained and the NBA is a success because they’ve expanded to 30 cities and are billion dollar entities in each of them. Restricting those teams to a different share of the talent would certainly fold some of them, mean fewer jobs and lower salaries. Oh, and that collective bargaining also benefits both sides. NBA teams get rights to players. NBA players get the ability to not be signed to a 10 year contracts for 100K a year. The compensation for those rights? Money for everyone – control for some.

I’ll also counter that most people 22 and under are complete idiots, and have no idea what’s going to make them happy. They’re far less likely to have it “figured out” than their agents and parents, which is to say, not at all.

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Until Thursday, Cavalierios. Try not to do anything dumb. I know I probably will.