The League Returns and So do Cavs: The Bloggers (+Cavs/Pacers live thread)

As we all settle down in our houses for winter and as the pandemic rages outside, the mighty Cavaliers have returned to Northeast Ohio, and so must we flock to the blog like the salmon of Capistrano to discuss our favorite team. David, Ben, Eli, and Nate take on a brief Cavs preview and look forward to tonight’s first pre-season game. (Also stay here for the Cavs/Pacers live thread) 

1. Where do the Cavs finish in the East?

David Wood: The Cavs will be the 8th seed this year, and get in from the play-in game. The team is oddly deep with average guys if the young folks continue to develop even a little.

Ben Werth: I am probably being far too optimistic, but I see the Cavs finishing around 9th in the East. That would put them in the play-in tourney, and from there, they do have some Vets that could scare some teams. 

Elijah Kim: The Cavs are not designed to win at this point. Perhaps it’s intentional or by incompetence but regardless, the Cavs will have a large uphill battle to being competitive in the NBA. Teams who finished outside the playoff picture like Charlotte, Atlanta, Detroit, and Washington all made moves to improve significantly while the core of Chicago is candidly more attractive to me personally than Cleveland’s. While I am a bit more optimistic on Garland and his development along with Nance playing a much larger role, I still think the Cavs will not be that good. My prediction is that the Cavs win 23 games (in a 72 game season) for the 13th seed in the East.

Nate Smith: Best case: the Cavs climb past the Knicks, Hawks, Bulls, Nets, and Hornets who will all be worse than advertised as the Nets implode. Worst case: Cavs sneak into the playoffs by finishing ninth and end up missing out on the premier tier of the most loaded draft in years. Probable case: 14th, one ahead of the Knicks.

Who is the best Cavalier by the end of the season?

Elijah Kim: The best Cavalier will be Larry Nance, health willing. Nance is expected to step up and do it all for the Cavs, and he will shine by playing 3-5 and showcasing his all-around abilities as a basketball player. This also hinges on the fact that Kevin Love will only play about 50 games and Drummond won’t end the season as a Cavalier.

Ben Werth: Larry Nance Jr. Nance is going to get every opportunity to play at the 3. His improved shooting and ball-handling could give the Cavs some real size upfront. We just watched Jerami Grant play playoff defense against almost every player on the floor. Junior isn’t quite as quick as Grant on the perimeter, but he isn’t far off. If he can continue to make 3s with increased volume, Nance will be an impact player. 

Nate Smith: Larry Nance Jr. will be the best Cav by analytics (as I believe he was last year), but won’t get enough playing time, while Kev has the numbers and a contract no one wants (which is fine by me).

David Wood: Collin Sexton should be the best guy. He’s not terrible on defense, he tries and that means a lot in the NBA. And, while his offensive numbers from last season say chucker, 7.9-16.7, he’s two less dumpy mid-range jumpers, one or two more transition onslaughts, and two more free throws per game from being a better shooting Russell Westbrook.

3. What Cav do you look forward to seeing most this year?

Nate Smith: “Ice” Okoro, as he’s being called by his Cavs teammates, makes me weak in the knees. His J appears to be for real in training camp (he hit a step-back game winner in a scrimmage this week), and if he has ball skills, then the skies the limit. He’s a dark horse Rookie of the Year candidate. Honorable mentions: totes swole Darius Garland and Dylan “no longer the Gipper” Windler.

Elijah Kim: I look forward to seeing if the Garland-Sexton backcourt has improved. It probably can’t be worse but the news about Garland is encouraging. I’m still an optimist in his potential and think he could take a big step forward. While KPJ likely would have been my answer before the news of the incident, I also am intrigued by his on-court potential.

David Wood: I can’t wait to see Kevin Love. He’s had too many sub par seasons. He should demand the ball and the game should flow through him if J.B. wants this team to be competitive. He won’t be Minny Lover ever again, but he isn’t going to just be spot-up Kev this season.

Ben Werth: Darius Garland. He was an abject disaster last year, but much of that had to do with playing an NBA schedule while having a child’s body. From the looks of it, Garland has filled out quite a bit. His flashes of NBA IQ last season give me hope for a huge year two leap. 

4. Do the Cavs finish the year at the bottom of the league on defense? Where do they finish on offense?

Ben Werth: If Nance gets as much run at the 3 as I suspect, it will be hard for the Cavs to be a terrible defense. Andre Drummond might have trouble with Joel Embiid, but he has been an absolute defensive stud otherwise. With those two guys wreaking havoc combined with Isaac Okoro’s potential disruption on the wing, Cleveland will be able to withstand Sexton’ s and Garland’s shortcomings.

If Garland makes a leap and Sexton accepts being an off-ball player, we might see a top 18 offense. If I had to bet on it though, I would say they finish at 20. 

David Wood: They won’t be the worst defensive team in the league at all. The Cavs can put out some real size and J.B. seems like he’ll do it. Having Nance at the 3, Love at the 4, and Drummond at the 5 will equate to some stopping power. If KPJ, Cedi, or Okoro are on the floor with those three large MEN, the team might sport a top ten defensive lineup occasionally. They’ll finish 19th on defense by the time the season ends. They’ll finish 15th on the offensive end, if Love gets more touches and Sexton dials up his IQ a bit.

Nate Smith: Playing bigger and with better wings still leaves them at the bottom of the league for the first half of the season due to all the youngins, but they figure it out and then climb to a respectable 22nd. Nets finish at the bottom when their players’ eyes become unable to close again due to a wokeness overdose. Steve Nash and Mike D’Antoni tell them just to try to watch the jumbotron to see what the player they are guarding is doing, and when Kyrie returns to the bench wide-eyed, he simply says, “Where’s your God now, Canadian Jesus?” Even KD can’t figure it out.

Elijah Kim: Cavs finish in the bottom 5 but not dead last this year with the addition of Okoro and a full season of Larry Nance playing a lot. Offensively, I think the Cavs make improvements to get to 20th (they were 25th last year). 

5. Do the Cavs trade anyone?

Nate Smith: Dante Exum is a perfect expiring contract. When teams realize they overpaid some guys *cough cough* Jeremi Grant *cough cough*  Danillo Gallinari, There will be some movement. Guys on lower tier expirings like Exum and Javale will be super useful for greasing trade wheels, but a big contract like Drummond on an expiring will also be valuable. Also, if Washington is healthy, we’ll quickly realize how good they can be and that they need a big. I really like Westbrook’s fit there,  Kevin Love complements their roster really well, and he has a history with Westbrook.

Elijah Kim: Yes, a lot of people. The Cavs will end up trading Drummond and Javale McGee. My expectations are low on both, since there is a lack of track record in recent history of expirings yielding much more than a protected first or multiple seconds. The big man had a mini resurgence which can only hopefully help improve the value of Drummond, McGee, and Love. Barring some unforeseen scenario, I don’t think any of the young players drafted by Altman get traded. Dante Exum is also another player who could be traded as an expiring.

Ben Werth: Unless the season goes completely off the rails, I actually don’t see a trade happening. There aren’t enough teams that could take on Love’s contract and Drummond shouldn’t be traded if he is playing well enough to warrant interest. Maybe Osman, Delly, or JaVale.

David Wood: They may trade Andre Drummond, but I would be surprised if they did. He’s $28.75 million of get out of jail free if a team sends us a jumble of longer term salary. I can’t think of a team that needs to actually do that though, He could be a part of a larger mid-season trade if a team decides it wants to land Harden from out of nowhere and needs some toss in dumper contract to eat space somewhere in the trade.

6. Who leads the Cavs in scoring? In assists? In rebounds? In steals?

David Wood: 

Points: Love, he’s returning to form.

Rebounds: Drummond, he has back hair and is very large.

Assists: Nance, point NANCE!

Steals: Sexton, you gotta gamble to get steals.

Ben Werth:

Elijah Kim: Sexton will lead the Cavs in scoring while Garland will lead in assists. Drummond will lead in rebounds until traded, so Kevin Love will end the year as the leader. Steals will be a tough one but I’ll go with the rookie, Isaac Okoro.

Nate Smith:

Sneaky reason that the Cavs are being cautious with Sexton tonight is that they really want to see how the Garland, Cedi, Okoro, Love, Drummond lineup plays without him. If it does well, I could see the Cavs moving Sexton to the bench in a Lou Williams style role. I actually think that could be disastrous for his development if he develops an “I gotta get mine” mentality. Regardless, he’s going to average around 20 again and lead the team.

Assists: Garland finally starts living up to his 2019 hype and gets 5-6 a game.

Boards: Drummond edges out Kev in total rebounds by playing more games, but Kev squeaks out the rebounds per game title by going after boards while they send Drummond block hunting to build his value.

Blocks: See above

Steals: Good question. Sexton and Nance go back and forth all year as Okoro’s solid positional D and Nance and Drummond’s deflections get Sexton a lot of loose balls to scoop up.

6. Does James Harden get traded and where does he go if he does?

Elijah Kim: Harden gets traded to the Nets eventually with Levert, Dinwiddie, and Allen headlining the players while the Rockets also get at least 5 first round picks/swaps.

David Wood: Harden is gone, but he’s not going to Philly or Brooklyn. The trade partner is gonna be a surprise like the Kawhi one two years ago. 

Nate Smith: Yes. The Rockets have no choice. He gets less valuable by the day and Tilman Fertitta can’t afford the the price of his franchise dropping any more. Harden ends up where he deserves, in Boston, Danny Ainge treats player is a line on a spreadsheet. They were meant for each other.

Ben Werth: Harden will be traded, but after the season starts. If I’m Philly, I pull the trigger immediately. The Nets package isn’t strong enough. They would need a third team. 

7. What team will be the biggest shocker this year?

David Wood: Atlanta is going to be bad…again…despite adding Gallinari, Bogdanovic, and Rondo. Trae Young is in for a rude awakening. He’s not Curry shooting wise or handle wise, and Curry never had the ball as much as Young during any stretches of his success. Young is going to realize his game needs to broaden if he wants success in this league. Also, he’s a 3-point star who shoots 36% from deep. Really?

Nate Smith: In the positive column: Memphis and Denver. Ja, and Clarke come into their own and make the playoffs. Denver trades for a third star and makes the finals. Negative column: Lakers and Nets. Lakers were super fortunate they got a mid-season hiatus to recharge and a no-travel bubble championship. The travel catches up with them, LeBron gets dinged up, AD gets more dinged up, and they fail to make a second finals as “the disease of more” catches up with the Lake show as the nation emerges from pandemic hibernation. The Nets bank on a bunch of guys with injury history and it does not go well. Biggest shocker: the Tampa Bay Raptors makes the finals again with no one 2021 All-Stars.

Ben Werth: I’m not seeing any true shockers out there. The Pelicans might be the closest. Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams will tighten up their defense. If Zion is healthy and with an improved D, they should finish high enough in the West to avoid the play-in. Bledsoe is terrible in the playoffs, but he is actually a more disruptive regular season player than Holiday. 

Elijah Kim: In terms of a positive shocker, I’ll say the Mavs. Dallas will be a top 2 seed in the West as they will work to play hard all season while building good habits. Although Porzingis will be out for a bit for recovery, Luka Doncic will only use that to add to his MVP case for this season. 
Negative shocker wise, I would not be surprised at all if the LA teams don’t end up in the top 3 of seeding. These teams will likely have their foot off the gas to start the season and continuity may be a concern. Could you imagine a first round 4-5 matchup of the LA teams?

8. Who wins the East?

Nate Smith: Everyone on Miami goes out with an injury in the second round because of physical impossibility of playing basketball while they’re so far up their own a**es. Toronto/Tampa rides the chip on Siakam’s shoulder and the best GM in pro sports to the promised land. Coach Bud finally gets fired.

Elijah Kim: I want to give it to the Bucks who almost had the offseason to clinch Giannis’s supermax except for some technicalities of reporting. However, the Heat get it due to their experience and mental edge. Butler may slow down a bit but Herro, Robinson, and Adebayo will only get better as the Heat navigate the East.

David Wood: Sometimes a star like Giannis needs his second team to finally get where he thinks he should be. This year is going to make that something Giannis thinks about a ton, as the Heat get to the Finals again. The Heat have the mental toughness to finish business in what will be a season that is changing in odd ways daily.

Ben Werth: Bucks should win the regular season and barring a Harden trade, will be in the Finals finally. 

9. Who wins the West?

Ben Werth: The Lakers have no peer in the league now. Dallas could give them a run if everything goes perfectly for them. 

David Wood: Probably the Lakers, but that’s no fun. So, Denver. Denver had a taste last year and Jokic and Murray are ready to be consistent playoff guys now. Michael Porter Jr. will be what Murray was last year in the playoffs for the Nuggets. This will be enough to get them past a Lakers team where LeBron finally shows some age.

Elijah Kim: In the end, I still think the Lakers will win the West despite maybe not trying hard all year. The duo of LeBron and AD may still be too much despite LBJ’s age. Until we see consistent significant weaknesses in LeBron’s game, I’ll continue to pencil him in for making the Finals.

Nate Smith: Denver figures it all out when they use their stocked war chest to trade for a third star. Malone loses his mind at the officials and finally makes them call a fair game.

10. Who wins it all?

Nate Smith: Jamal Murray robs the Joker of a finals MVP.

Elijah Kim: Lakers still have to be the favorite with LeBron and AD, although their offseason was a little overrated. While I like Wesley Matthews as a replacement for Danny Green, I’m not sure he’s the same level of shooter. The Lakers path will be much harder than last year’s title but in the end, I think LeBron and AD find a way.

David Wood: The Heat would have really been competitive with the Lakers last year if not for injury woes. The continued development of Bam, Herro, and Robinson will result in the Heat having two real deal stars (Butler and Bam) and two overly capable third options. They are the only team that can slow the Lakers through smart coaching and decent personal, and shut down any other team completely. 

Ben Werth: The Lakers can matchup with everyone. Gasol won’t be afraid of Jokic, Embiid or Nurk. They have Davis to throw at Porzingis and Giannis. They have no real weakness now. Look for Horton-Tucker to really emerge this regular season. That kid has the length, strength, and smarts to give them real minutes on the wing. LeBron will fight father time for one more prime type season.