From Distance: Battle of the MVPs

four point play….

1. I am rather thrilled that Kawhi Leonard’s apparent knee injury isn’t serious enough to have greatly affected his play. It was clear to me when he injured the leg, though somehow that has escaped the National Media. Very early in Game 3, Leonard had a breakaway dunk that turned finger roll when he blew a tire. The announcers didn’t catch that he immediately started limping after this play, pointing to another later landing. I don’t know what happened exactly, but I do know that it happened this early in the Game 3.

I was worried that would would turn an otherwise fantastic series into a facsimile of what it could have been. Instead, Leonard toughed out the rest of Game 3, got a lot of help in Game 4, and was back to being a destroyer of worlds in Game 5.

2. I have had the Raptors coming out of the East since last September. After they picked up Marc Gasol, my enthusiasm only grew. With Gasol, Siakam, Leonard, Green, and Lowry, you have an All-NBA level defensive squad with plenty of offensive punch.

My one fear for the pick came in the way of the best Milwaukee deer, Giannis Antetekounmpo. Giannis made his freaky leap, and there was no telling where exactly he would land. If the voters got it right, it will at least be the regular season MVP.

Still, against an amazingly intelligent set of defenders, I gingerly picked the Raptors to take out the Bucks and advance to the NBA Finals. Two games in, I was seriously doubting the wisdom of my pick, but after three consecutive victories, the Raptors have regained my confidence.

3. While most people would claim that Leonard has simply outplayed Giannis over the course of the series, I would point to Nick Nurse vs Mike Budenholzer as the more damaging loss from the Bucks’ perspective.

Coach Bud has been put into a bit of rough situation with Eric Bledsoe. After Bled seemingly turned the corner this season, he has fallen hard back to his baseline over the course of the last two rounds. Bledsoe is a fearsome defender, but offensively, he is a below average decision maker, a mediocre streak shooter, and a mentally weak big game performer.

While I applaud Coach Bud’s ability to maintain confidence in his players, his reluctance to bench Bledsoe may have already cost the Bucks a trip to the Finals.

Coach Bud has also stuck with a rather stagnant offensive attack against a Raptors’ defense that is essentially playing a match-up 3-2 zone. They flow in and out of the defensive scheme with an accuracy that only five defensive masters could regularly employ.

Any time Giannis has the ball at the top of the floor, the Raptors immediately slide into their 3-2 look (or 1-2-2 depending on the other non Giannis players), making it nearly impossible for Antetekounmpo to get freaky.

The only way to combat this defensive style is to either make all the open looks that the Raptors want you to take,  (hard and barely doable) or to play PnR against the head of the Zone and  screen off-ball (less difficult, but hard to immediately employ).

Basically, there is no way that the Raptors should be able to continually bottle up The Freak if the Bucks start screening with Brogdon in tandem with off-ball pindowns to shake the defense. They need to play more like the Nuggets do on the weakside of the floor.

This is why it is so damning to play Eric Bledsoe. He doesn’t randomly screen well. Some guards really understand how to set random screens on or off ball. Mathew Dellavedova wouldn’t have a career if he weren’t supremely good at that skill. Kyle Lowry’s advance stats wouldn’t point to him being an All-NBA level contributor if he didn’t constantly move and screen without nary a stop.

Bledsoe is terrible at this, while George Hill and Malcolm Brogdon both excel. If you want to make stylistic changes in order to beat a defense that has your number, you have to play guys who have the mental bandwidth to adjust on the fly.

Bled is owed a lot of money going forward. When he is hitting his shots, he can look like a great player. But if the Bucks want to get to the Finals, Coach Bud is going to have to make the hard to decision to sit him in favor of guys like Pat Connaughton and increased minutes for Hill and Mirotic.

I understand that Mirotic hasn’t been hitting his shots, but at least he understands how to move off-ball if Coach Bud gives him the green light. Four immobile Bucks watching Giannis take on a triple team isn’t going to get it done.

4. Out West, the Warriors did what everyone should have expected them to do against an inferior Blazers team. As much as I have come around on Damian Lillard (I used to think he was the most overrated player in the league and a net loss because of his defensive ineptitude. Now I recognize his value as a leader, and his defense has greatly improved.), I still didn’t think Portland had a shot to win more than one game.

Like I have said previously, the Warriors’ floor is higher without Durant, but their ceiling is lower without him as well. The change in style allows them greater heights, but can make them bored and uninspired in certain situations.

Without Durant, the Warriors are still at the mercy of a giant wing scorer like LeBron, Kawhi, or Giannis. It is too easy to hunt Steph Curry’s undersized defense in mismatches without Durant in the lineup. Obviously, the Blazers mini backcourt had no chance of taking advantage of the Warriors’ primary sans-Durant weakness.

In the Finals, however, if Durant is not healthy, the Warriors are going to be in serious trouble. Both Giannis and Leonard would feast on Curry in force switch situations. If the Bucks end up in the Finals, it will be because they figured out how to beat the zoned up look.

If the Raptors advance, the Warriors will face the smartest collection of defenders that they have ever faced. Yes, the Cavs occasionally followed the gameplan for extended stretches allowing LeBron’s physical dominance to wear on the smaller Dubs, but even at the Cavs’ peak, they were nowhere near this Raptors team in intellect.

That is why I am so happy to see Leonard’s apparent health. I want whoever it is that comes out of the East to be healthy and ready to beat the Warriors. I like both East teams. Spoiler, I don’t like the Warriors, especially if Durant is playing.

Which brings me to Durant. I am not professional athlete so I have never been afforded the physical therapy and genetic gifts that Kevin Durant has. I do know this. The first injury that really sidelined me was a calf strain.

Now, maybe the term “mild” was only tossed in for Durant to alleviate fear after the suspected achilles tear. Yes, the latter is obviously a far great injury and everyone should be happy that an all-time talent doesn’t have to go through that kind of rehab.

BUT, a mid to severe level calf strain is no joke. They linger, re-injure often if you come back even a bit too soon, and greatly affect a player’s leaping confidence. I would say most guys would prefer a quad or even a hamstring strain to a calf strain.

If you feel that pop, it is because a significant amount of muscle tissue has torn. Durant is huge and can still get off shots even at 70%, but unless he heals incredibly quickly, it is very unlikely that he will be totally healthy in mind and body for Game 1.

Honestly, I hope he is. I want the Warriors to have zero excuses if the East comes out on top.