My 2012 “Money-Ball” free agency plan
2012-07-01The NBA season never ends; free agency starts today.
I wrote the following post prior to the announcement that Cleveland extended qualifying offers to Semih Erden and Luke Harangody. Why did this happen? In their age 25 and 24 seasons, respectively, managing to see the court in less than half of the outings for a team that proved victorious in one-third of it’s games, while posting sub-replacement level PER; these two men apparently are non-expendable.
Anyways, I’m just bitter because after churning out the following yesterday, now I need to eliminate two players. I was not planning on watching Erden or Harangody in a Cavs jersey again. DJ White and Scott Machado…you never existed to me. Man, I hope Kevin Jones rules. I’m running this regardless…let me know your preferred 2012 free agency strategy and targets.
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Derrick Brown dunks against Detroit
The Cavaliers roster is rounding out nicely; a team relatively full of legitimate NBA players looks likely to take the court next year.
With the incoming rookies, and a recommended pick-up of Gibson’s option, Cleveland owns contracts with 9 players for $33 million. Baron Davis’s amnestied $14.9M still counts towards the required team minimum salary, so almost any combination on six players allows the Cavs to meet their CBA needs. The nine current players are:
- PG = Kyrie Irving
- SG = Dion Waiters, Daniel Gibson
- SF = Omri Casspi, Luke Walton, Kelenna Azubuike
- PF = Anderson Varejao, Tristan Thompson
- C = Tyler Zeller
To fill out a reasonable 2012 – 2013 roster, the following needs exist:
- Back-up and third Point Guard
- Fifth Wing, preferably including some size
- Fourth and Fifth Bigs, preferably another shooter
Since last year, Anthony Parker retired and Antawn Jamison left. The Cavs need to wrestle with other teams’ offers to Alonzo Gee. Let’s tackle that first:
Alonzo Gee – I am of the opinion the team should match most foreseeable offers for Gee; 4 years & $16M sounds about right. Keeping Gee provides continuity benefits – a lot of new faces don the wine & gold next season.
Familiar faces rest at the end of the bench; I say bring one of them back, as rostering eight new players next season seems excessive. As part of summer-league & training camp, a battle ensues. Hypothetically, I’ll say that Samardo Samuels survives as the “Fifth Big”. Luke Harangody, Semih Erden, Manny Harris and Donald Sloan – our time together sadly ends (obviously written yesterday. Erden and Harangody will be back. Also Kevin Jones is onboard, so apparently no Samuels?).
So, I’m looking at four free agents and am not making big splashes. That sounds like front office strategy for the off-season. Chris Grant and company exhibited amazing patience over the last two years, and appear to prefer that for one more off-season. With the 12 guys mentioned above, plus the Boom-Dizzle contract, the Cavs salary obligations approach $55 million. I like the team that is being constructed and think it prudent to give the Irving, Waiters, TT, Zeller group a season to mesh while the franchise evaluates future needs. I go back & forth on this, but again rest on the side of the fence of keeping Varejao. He’s awesome and it will be interesting to watch how he fits with this team, both as a player and a mentor.
If Cleveland signs four free agents to short-term contracts with total 2012 – 2013 salary under $10 million, they enter 2013 – 2014 with $20 – $25 million in cap space. Even assuming the Cavs compete for a play-off berth next year, utilizing their bevy of future draft picks, the team picks twice in the mid-first round of each of the next three drafts. Saving cap flexibility for another season or two, while accumulating young talent, then luring one high-quality free agent to Cleveland immediately before extending the team’s 22-year-old All-Star point guard…well, all that cap space, a competitive team, and the stud PG may be the only bet to lure the premium free agent. That off-season is not this off-season.
With that as intro, here are some favorite “money-ball” free-agent options to make the team competitive next year for cheap.
Back-up Point Guard
Rumors occasionally pop-up about Jonny Flynn, the former sixth-pick with a career 11 PER. To me, bringing aboard a project back-up point guard sounds ill-advised. Despite already being amazing, Kyrie Irving is only twenty years old. No need diverting any developmental coaching from Kyrie. Instead, perhaps a steadying veteran influence proves beneficial.
AJ Price played three seasons for the Indiana Pacers, never fully embraced as their back-up point guard, but accumulating 2200 minutes and a 12 PER. Not an efficient scorer, he creates shots off the pick & roll, while giving solid effort on defense. There’s not much exciting about him, as he turns 26 next season. What he is though, is a tolerable back-up NBA point guard, who spent the last two years on playoff teams. Over the next two seasons, the Cavs likely win 35 – 45 games per year. For two years and $2.5 million total, AJ Price represents a proven, suitable second-string floor general.
3rd point guard
Scott Machado of Iona and Jordan Taylor of Wisconsin recently completed their senior years and went undrafted. I say, try them both out this summer, and give a two year, $1.3 million contract to the more impressive player. Only the first year at $600K is guaranteed.
Tall Wing
Derrick Brown is a restricted free agent that turns twenty-five next season. Defending big shooting guards and small forwards poses issues for Cleveland, as Alonzo Gee’s height matches up poorly with say…Joe Johnson. With career NBA average of 13 points per 36 minutes, on exceedingly-acceptable 55.4% true shooting, Brown serves as a great value pick-up to add size & athleticism. Nearly 6’ – 9” with a huge wingspan; last year he held opponents to a 12.1 PER, while playing over half his minutes at small forward. In addition to coming from Dayton, I like this fit with the current team and would overpay in the short-term (easy for me to say). For two years, what amount makes Brown decide to come home to Ohio, and forces Charlotte to not match? I’ll say 2 years at $3 million per season. For a player that always made league-minimum and is currently wearing that “worst-team-ever-stink”; hopefully that gets signatures on paper.
If unsuccessful there, how about Tracy McGrady for one year and $2.5 milllion? An elite passing wing, over the last two seasons, he averaged 12, 6 & 5 per 36 minutes, while making 37% from deep. With my stated goal of “adding NBA players of value while not committing long-term money”; McGrady fits the bill. His last two contracts, he signed one-year minimum-salary deals. With a doubling of his recent salary, maybe he signs with Cleveland for a year.
Fourth Big-Man
Cleveland signed Kevin Jones of West Virginia to a partially guaranteed contract. He lead the Big East in scoring and rebounding last year, and for the sake of this post, he knocks off Samardo Samuels as fifth big. For the record, I like this singing.
As my money-ball veteran free agent big man, I propose to chase DJ White, also recently of Charlotte. Surely you say “why pilfer multiple players from the worst team in NBA history”? Well, of Charlotte’s total 3.4 win shares last year; Brown and White accumulated over 90%. Last year, White made 43% of his long twos, in-line with his career average. A very respectable mark for a power forward – per minute, he shoots and converts these shots at a frequency equal to Lamarcus Aldridge. Obviously that is the only place they are similar, but White rarely turns the ball over and has a career PER of 15. For 2 years at $1.5 million each, he appears as a good fit for Cleveland, playing fifteen minutes per game at the four when Andy switches to Center.
Summary
For under $6 million a year, and with no contracts beyond 2013 – 2014; I added a suitable back-up point guard, a big & athletic wing, and a floor-stretching power forward. Nearly pristine salary cap flexibilty remains, and a highly adaptable rotation can be formed for any opponent. In this “punting on 2012 free agency, money-ball scenario”, the season-opening roster is:
PG: Kyrie Irving, AJ Price, Scott Machado
Wings: Dion Waiters, Alonzo Gee, Derrick Brown, Omri Casspi, Daniel Gibson, Kelenna Azubuike
Front Court: Anderson Varejao, Tyler Zeller, Tristan Thompson, DJ White, Kevin Jones, Luke Walton
I count the reigning rookie-of-the-year, Anderson Varejao, two highly-regarded first-round picks, plus seven other 26-and-under players that have proven themselves legitimate NBA players in the last two years. It’s not a contender, but is an honest-to-goodness real-NBA team, with no bad-contracts and lots of reason for optimism…for Cleveland Cavaliers fans, that’s a beautiful thing.
2012-2013 Wish List Starters C Anderson Varejao PF Ersan Ilyasova SF Alonzo Gee SG Dion Waiters PG Kyrie Irving Bench C Tyler Zeller PF Tristan Thompson SF Omri Casspi SG Landry Fields PG Ramon Sessions ( yes, I said it) ^ Now, obviously this is a bit optimistic, hence the name “wish list”, I don’t know if it works cap wise or whatever even, but I do think its possible if it does. If we were able to sign Ilyasova and resign Gee, I believe that the sheer awesomeness of that roster going forward would prove to Fields that we… Read more »
@Cranky: Like I said, if the Cavs decide to pursue Ilyasova and can get him for a reasonable price I will be more than happy to root him on. However, it would seem the trend for players who drastically improve in a contract season fall back to earth after picking up that pen and signing that lucrative, bloated contract… If the Cavs get him he will be better than most of our bench players either way and I’ll be happy to root him on. But remember, Larry Hughes was a 26-year old 22/6/5 guy who had “figured things out” in… Read more »
Where was this ferry when he was the cavs gm?
Danny Ferry going nuts –
Joe Johnson’s albatross contract for a bunch of expiring contracts*
then Marv Williams for more random detritus
Atlanta native Dwight Howard anyone??
* p.s would we want J Farmar as backup PG for <$2 mill??
How has he landed in awful situations? He was handed a starting PG job in Minnesota, and went on to post the worst, repeat WORST, statistics of any PG in the entire league.
He is terrible. He can’t shoot, he isn’t a very good ballhandler, he isn’t overly athletic, he plays bad defense, he makes terrible decisions and has a low basketball IQ, and he’s under-sized.
Other than that, he’s wonderful.
Also, I’m a Jonny Flynn fan. He’s gotten stuck in some awful situations. Granted, he hasn’t played well, but he’s a hard worker and a great leader, and has really been the victim of bad coaching/coach turnover.
I really wish that they’d make a run at Nic Batum of Portland. The price might be a little high for the type of player he is (23 year old Shane Battier/Bruce Bowen, and the T-Wolves gave him an offer sheet of 4yr 50mill) but he’d be a great fit along side Waiters and Kyrie. I like Ilyasova, but he plays little to no defense and is very inconsistent- you don’t know what you’ll get from him on a night by night basis.
Good article, and nice to see a realistic yet optimistic story. I like what the Cavs are doing. Let’s be real, certain teams can buy championship potential, such as Boston and Miami. Lakers had a fluke trade to get Gasol which made them contenders. OKC is the popular model, but look at the Bulls. Their 3 key players (Rose, Noah, Deng), all via draft. This is not a playoff team yet, but at least there is potential. If this core can become a playoff team in 2014, then you reach out to established vets to fill voids. It’s the best… Read more »
“Can you guys please tell what is wrong with Jonny Flynn?” Answer: Everything. Did you not look at the stats somebody posted above? If those don’t convince you, take a gander at what Timberwolves and Rockets fans had to say about him when he was on those teams. I seem to remember one blog describing the typical Flynn possession thusly (and i’m paraphrasing): “There are 2 possible outcomes: he dribbles needlessly for 20 seconds, then either hoists a terrible shot (and misses it) or tries to make an ill-advised pass (and turns it over). I have never in my life… Read more »
I would comment in depth here…but AlexS hit the nail right on the head. Be honest with the team, save your flexibility, and give yourselves time to evaluate talent.
We need to evaluate our talent before we do anything. Hopefully we have some good investments in TT, Zeller, and Waiters.
The Spurs model can never be repeated. Their heavy investment in overseas scouting gave them near exclusive access to the Euro talent pool for several years before the league woke up, long enough to get great draft value on Parker, Ginobilli, Scola, Oberto, Splitter etc.
That will never happen again.
Can you guys please tell what is wrong with Jonny Flynn? His career had been weakened because he has been hurt but he is a talented, young Point Guard who can learn from Kyrie. I know Kyrie is no 10-year veteran but he knows the game well and can help Flynn with his skills and decision making.
Tom P, There are many more examples of teams tanking and getting stuck in a black hole of terribleness (Kings, Wiz, old Clippers, Warriors, Raptors, etc.) than there are of teams tanking and becoming OKC. The OKC is a myth (as Kevin has discussed in detail previously) whose success is derived from luck more than repeatable strategy. It is unclear whether the Cavs have enough talent as is. It will depend on what Waiters does, how much growth TT shows, what Zeller’s ceiling is, etc. If it turns out that Waiters is a beast, and TT makes a big leap… Read more »
I changed my name because I’m going to get KILLED for this and I want to conceal my true identity. Here is a thought for a SF to offer the league minimum to. ALEXZANDER PAVLOVIC. He is a long wing with capable size and speed to defend the SF position. Ok, that’s all I’ve got… In all seriousness, the guy showed some promise when he knew what to expect out of playing time. At a certain point, he went weeks where he might not get into a game and has been a complete and utter disaster since then. I believe… Read more »
Well we needed something to do today right?!
You make it really hard Kevin Hetrick, you know that? Everytime I read your articles I’m just nodding nodding nodding nodding. So I saw T-Mac, irrationally freaked out, and jumped at the chance to BURY YOU and got myself that much closer to carple tunnel. :)
Yeah we’re on the same page.
Kevin – I partially concede, but not really. If, by Moneyball you mean finds value where others see nothing, then yes I supposed drafting all the “Euro” players was “Moneyball”. However, this article is about Moneyballing FA – which I don’t think we can say is the main reason for their championships. Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili, the original “big 3” were all drafted and groomed. And Duncan was the product of an already decent team that tanked. Now, I partially concede because AFTER the intial Duncan tank the Spurs proceeded to be awesome and created the original “big 3” out… Read more »
Great news everyone – Jonny Flynn does NOT want to be a Cavalier!
http://espn.go.com/blog/los-angeles/lakers/post/_/id/31563/source-lakers-on-flynns-list
Rejoice!
As for specific targets I think the Cavs should pursue, in addition to Derrick Brown, I like Jeremy Evans as the “tall wing” who could be had fairly inexpensively. I also would love to get a stretch four like Ilyasova or Anderson because spacing is so important in the NBA. Thoughts?
I agree with Kevin’s approach, but I would go a step further and advocate pursuing young, mid-level free agents like Illyasova, Ryan Anderson or Courtney Lee (assuming that these players are good fits in the system).
@AlexS, Tom, others While I concede that your position has some appeal philosophically, I get frustrated by how much people who take your position seem to gloss over the “waiting for the last few pieces to fall into our lap” part of the plan. The likelihood that the Cavs, or any team for that matter, will find impact players in consecutive years of the draft who, collectively, mature into the core of a championship team is remote. If you pursue this strategy and fail, the team is likely going to be really bad for a long, long time, without even… Read more »
AlexS – nice post. I agree 100%.
Kevin, I apologize if I’m misunderstanding, but it seems like you’re equating not making any moves in FA to tanking. I don’t believe that is an accurate assessment. Making no move at all can be better than making a bad move. Take Nic Batum for an example. He would be a nice fit on the Cavs. But, would you really want the Cavs to outbid the T-Wolves for him? That would be around 13 mil/yr. He’s not enough to put the team over the top, and if he flops with that contract, you set back the franchise for years. I… Read more »
Scuzz, I am kind of equating making a qualifying offer to Luke Harangody as tanking. We’ve gotten way off-base from my article, but I propose several small moves that I think improve the team now. I don’t want the Cavs to spend $50 million on Batum or any other such lunacy. I agree with AlexS’s comment. My biggest annoyance is the arguments that Cleveland needs another top 5 pick, and that signing Luke Harangody for another year is a means to an end. I’d rather make moves like mentioned in my article and start winning 40 games now, while still… Read more »
Also, just saw the Cavs waived Manny Harris. Really wish that Danny Green would have played hard for Coach Scott before he got dropped to the D-League for his wake-up call. Would be nice if one of those two guys would have stuck…
@Spots: Boo to Ilyasova! If he signs with the Cavs I will root him on. But the odds are good he’s just one of this year’s “only good in a contract year” guys… A guy who was getting a 14-ish PER year after year who bumps it up to 20 in a contract year in a shortened season seems way more likely to drop back down to a 15 PER than even staying at 18+… If we can get him for a bargain price I’m fine with it, but odds are he will be bid up to where it becomes… Read more »
James A. My point is, it helps to make splashes in free agency and the Cavs have zero history of doing it. Therefore, to offset that handicap, they need to get SUPERSTARS out of the draft and plug in the holes with mid-level exception guys. I do not think they have enough superstar talent yet to start treating FA from “let’s win” perspective. Most of my points were just countering some of Kevin’s claims, I wasn’t trying to assert anything other than “Don’t be so surprised that a lot of Cavs fans are resistant to some of your ideas, Kevin.… Read more »
Tom,
There is ONE history lesson that sheds light on the “suck for more good draft picks” alternative.
Will you concede that the Spurs are a money-ball champion?
Tom Pestak, I’ve derailed this comment thread horribly from my original article. We’re not even that far from being on the same side of this issue, yet I’ve engaged in a knock-down-drag-out brawl. For some reason, as soon as anyone indicates that losing is good – I freak out. Shades of those ideas arrived in this thread, and I became unnecessarily defensive…considering the issue at hand is signing Luke Harangody for one year at the league minimum. We’ll see if Cleveland does anything relatively meaningful in free agency this off-season (i.e. along the lines of the 2 year, $5 million… Read more »
This is the point where the Spurs separate from the Hawks. On paper, we look pretty promising. Now, will we overpay for a good talent (Batum/Hibbert) to come to Cleveland to make us the 4th seed and give us a puncher’s chance at a championship? Or will we wait for the last few pieces to fall into our lap to make us legitimate contenders for a title? The best thing to do is be honest about where this team stands. Most teams make the mistake of thinking that they are one good player away from a title. What they actually… Read more »
Cavs reach out to Ersan Ilyasova [per ESPN rumors]. I hope we get him.
Tom, I’m not even sure I understand your position anymore. You say that “looking at the last handful of NBA championships” free agency “completely and 100% mattered,” but then go on to assert that Cleveland should follow the OKC model (presumably make no moves, be in the lottery year-after-year and hope that a young core develops). What, exactly, are you proposing the Cavs do?
As far as the “OKC model is intellectually lazy” argument you keep making. I kind of agree, and yes, they haven’t won anything yet. Has a team with a “moneyball” approach won anything yet? How many World Series has Billy Bean won? How about Daryl “Medina’s own genius” Morey? You’ll notice no one is attacking your post on the same grounds, and I won’t either – because it logically makes sense. Looking at the last handful of NBA championships and free agency completely and 100% mattered. Heat (their whole team), Dallas (Chandler, Marion, Kidd, Stevenson), Boston (big 3), Heat 2K6… Read more »
Tom Pestak,
The Celtics drafted Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and Kendrick Perkins. They traded for Garnett and Allen. No free agents.
Dallas traded for Chandler, Marion and Kidd.
In all cases of the trades, a combination of young talent and expiring contracts were used to acquire these players. I would argue that the Spurs have won at least three championships with a moneyball strategy. They drafted Duncan at #1, but we have Kyrie…the Spurs have plugged in everything else around him with low draft picks, low cost free agents, smart trades, etc.
For clarity, the SA model is not the OKC model. San Antonio drafted Duncan #1 and did not rely on a prolonged run on top draft choices.
The Cavs definitely missed on a lot of picks/moves in the LeBron era, they also managed to win 66 and 61 games. The 66 wins was ESPECIALLY impressive because there was an inflanted value being placed on HCA from the previous year’s playoffs. So CLE, LAL, BOS, ORL especially were ALL gunning for Finals Home Court. And the Cavs, despite many injuries to key rotation players, won 66 games. It’s because they assembled a nice team that fit really well around a superstar and their philosophy matched their personel. Look at some of the Heat’s moves from 2007-2010: FAs: Chris… Read more »
Regarding the Lebron Cavs; I unintentionally exaggerated when I said no good moves from 2004 – 2009. Starting in 2008, they began turning it around, acquired Mo and Delonte and Wallace / Shaq and obviously there were two very enjoyable seasons. Unfortunately, the team had to work very hard undoing all the poor decisions of the first five years of the Lebron era. I agree the Heat are a horrible example of how to build a team. I don’t know why my choices are “6 – 8 seed that always has a chance” or “couple years of putrid-ness followed by… Read more »
I agree with you Kevin. I’d love to see every move made as an opportunity to get better as soon as possible, without sacrificing long term financial flexibility. I think the Cavs are a little too scared going the other way. They are so scared of repeating the LeBron fiasco, they don’t want to get too good too quickly, and they are making mistakes by passing up opportunities at good players when they have them. As far as the Kyrie Irving/Chris Paul debate, I think CP is a bad comparison. KI is his own model. There’s hardly a precedent for… Read more »
HoopsDogg,
You are correct; I forgot about Boobie – other than that, it was pretty bad though.
Kevin: “Honestly, my bouts of impatience are more based on a cognitive disconnect with the gaming-the-system idea that “you need to be bad to eventually be good”. ” You are going to get a lot of that from Cavs fans. 1.) This concept of getting too good too fast and not assembling any talent around LeBron is the narrative of the decade. (If I’m being generous I say this is PARTIALLY true) and 2.) The Thunder are all the rage right now and this is what they did. I’m with you in that I’d like to see some entertaining basketball.… Read more »
Tom, I don’t know if you read by “Building a Winner” series in February. On the fourth day (https://cavstheblog.com//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////?p=8045), I discussed some of the last decade’s “too good – too fast” teams. I don’t think Cleveland’s problem was not selecting high in the lottery after drafting Lebron…it’s basically that they missed on EVERY personnel decision for like five straight years. Other than trading for Varejao (a complete afterthought trade), Cleveland butchered every draft pick, every chance at free agency…everything from 2004 through 2009. They also messed up their four 1st round picks in the three drafts prior to Lebron. In… Read more »
Another few random thoughts on the “Thunder strategy”. 1. OKC hasn’t won anything yet, and 2012 – 2013 is their final season before needing to make big decisions on their franchise’s future. Given the new luxury tax; keeping Durant, Westbrook, Harden and Ibaka is very unlikely, unless the latter two are willing to play for a reduced salary. 2. Indiana built the sixth best team in basketball this year, based both on regular season record and playoff results. With the exception of free agent David West, their top seven minutes earners were acquired with picks between 10 and 17. I… Read more »
Here’s a link about Semih Erden playing in Europe:
http://www.hoopsworld.com/agent-no-deal-in-turkey-for-semih-erden
Doesn’t say anything really, except that he’s received very good offers from Turkish team but his wish is to stay in the NBA.
Kevin, Interesting data about the difference between SF and PF. With the pickup of Waiters and Zeller, I’m not entirely sure what the Cavs need at SF. With Irving and Waiters in the back-court, you have two interchangable players in that either could drive and set up other players for a shot, while the other one could play at the perimeter. TT would have to play close to the basket, while Zeller could be in the paint or about 14 ft away. So, where do they need their SF to be? I was hoping they would pick up Hollis Thompson… Read more »
I was hoping the Cavs would make an offer to Batum, but the Wolves offered 12 mil/yr for 4 years. I don’t think I’d want to Cavs to go that high on an offer. But I am curious what the T-Wolves are doing at SF. First Budinger, now Batum. Are they looking to move D. Williams? Seems a little early for that….
Scuzz,
I had the same thought about the Timberwolves. They picked Wesley Johnson at #4 in 2010 and Derrick Williams at #2 in 2011. One year later, they’re offering $12 million / year to a SF? What a goofy franchise.
Williams was 20 last year and only played one shortened-season. Many questioned Williams’ position at last year’s draft; these are the results of only one season, but according to 82games.com, at SF he out-produced his match-up with a PER of 13.8 compared to 13.5. At PF, he was worse on offense and defense, being outproduced 12.6 PER to 16.6.
As for the backup PG, I’d much rather see the Cavs sign either John Lucas or Patty Mills over the putrid Jonny Flynn, who is one of the worst point guards in the NBA. To illustrate how inconceivably awful Jonny Flynn has been in his short NBA career, let’s take a look at his advanced stats for the past two seasons: 2010-11 (ESPN Hollinger Stats) Turnover Ratio = 18.5 (third worst among PGs) Estimated Wins Added = -1.9 (fourth worst among PGs) True Shooting Percentage = 44% (third worst among PGs) PER = 7.13 (third worst among PGs) 2011-12 Turnover… Read more »
Azibuke was hurt last year and way out of shape when he came in. If you recall from the first lockout, some guys were never the same. He may end up being one of those players.
As for the 2013 draft, it may not be deep but it’s topheavy. Also, a lot of guys played behind players who were playing an extra year last year because of the lockout. I don’t think it’ll be as bad as people think. The top 5 look very good.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2013/
HoopsDogg and Spots, The first thing I notice about the 2012 draft vs 2013 is that Evan Fournier is 19 years old and was the French Pro-A player of the month in March. He was selected 20th in 2012. Rudy Gobert is three months older than Fournier, played 13 minutes per game in Pro-A this year while averaging 5 & 4, and is projected as #4 in 2013. So this is highly conjectural, but my early inclination is to agree that 2013 is weak. The top few picks will probably be strong, but for how long can the Cavs’ strategy… Read more »
Forgive me if I’m wrong, but did I read somewhere that Semih Erden is signing in Europe? Also, I think Azibuike could turn into a very good piece. Didn’t he average around 14-16 points a game for Golden State? I know that says nothing about his defensive capabilities, but he could be good for 20 minutes an 10-15 points off the bench every night. I must also add that I think we’re in the right direction. Zeller was a solid pick, and I knew next to nothing about Waiters but have since done countless research on him and I actually… Read more »
Matt,
Haven’t heard anything on Erden.
Azibuike was solid in Golden State – the biggest issue is that he hasn’t really played in the NBA in 3 years.
Boobie is totally a solid veteran figure. I’m all for the Cavs picking up his option.
As a Xavier alumnus, I also would like to express my support of signing Derrick Brown to a two-year deal. He is an explosive athlete with a pretty decent shooting stroke (55% true shooting percentage in ’11-’12). He struggles to create his own shot, but can finish in transition and around the basket. Although he isn’t a great rebounder (awful 9.5 RebR in ’11-’12, good for almost dead last at his position), this weakness would be mitigated on the second unit with tenacious rebounder Tristan Thompson gobbling up every loose ball. Moreover, D.B. has the personality to fit in with… Read more »
The problem with being bad for one more year is that next year’s draft class is extremely weak:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog/_/name/nba_draft/id/8111253/an-early-look-2013-nba-draft
It’s ESPN Insider only, but this sums up what you need to know “The 2013 draft is so devoid of top returning underclassmen and has such a marginal freshman class, one NBA scout said our 2013 Top 100 list may be the weakest since the dreaded 2000 NBA draft…. When you remember that the best prospect out of the 2000 draft was 46th pick Michael Redd, you get a picture of what we might be in for.”
No. No. NO to Ilyasova. Overpay a guy who just *happened* to have his best year as a pro by far in an unrestricted contract year? The odds of him being yet another one of the many “awesome contract year before flopping back to reality” players is FAR more likely than him actually having “put it all together” last year. Especially in a compressed shortened season. A career sub-15 PER guy happening to have a 20 PER season right before becoming a free agent? No thank you… You’re all chomping at the bit to sign Spencer Hawes too, right? How… Read more »
The problem with Hickson is his defense. John Hollinger himself notes that the type of player most likely to be worse than his PER indicates is a PF that is bad at defense. That is JJ Hickson. Every team he has been with, the defense has been worse with him on the court than off the court, including this season with Sacremento and Portland. Based on 82games.com, he typically allows the player he is guarding to accumulate a PER of between 17 and 19. Adjusted plus / minus stats have always HATED Hickson (see this little post I made in… Read more »
Seems like the fans are thinking be patient, Kevin. I dunno, the only reason to bring in players over 30 is to teach the young guys some professionalism. Is T-Mac that guy? My guess is no. I never minded having AP here for specifically that reason. Even Jamison – although Jamison was almost too good, without him we would have had more ping pong balls. Cavs can NOT rely on splashing in FA. Players don’t want to come here. I don’t know why. Beautiful practice facility, good management, owner willing to spend at all costs, great home court advantage. I… Read more »
Tom Pestak, I teeter on top of a fence between patience and impatience. Which side I am on at any given time probably depends on my hydration level. To a large extent it has little to do with team management’s relatively inconsequential decision to extend a qualifying offer to Luke Harangody. Honestly, my bouts of impatience are more based on a cognitive disconnect with the gaming-the-system idea that “you need to be bad to eventually be good”. It’s just not a concept that I think is any fun. The lottery, tanking, etc are the NBA’s system, so I guess Cleveland… Read more »
Anyone have information on how Weems’s season overseas last year went? If he was still playing Toronto-style defense over there, i’ll have a hard time getting excited about these rumors connecting him to the Cavs.
Nathan, Weems played for Zalgiris in the Lithuanian League. If you go to Eurobasket.com, click on Lithuania on the left side, then find Zalgiris in the standings, you can track down Weems’ stats if so inclined. Zalgiris is a Lithuanian powerhouse, but that country’s league is not particularly strong – Zalgiris finished 21 – 1 and won the championship. His team did make the final 16 of the Euroleague; Europe’s top club basketball competition. In 15 Euroleague games, he scored well, but was very turnover prone and finished with a 16 PER (via draft express). So basically, an average-ish Euroleague… Read more »
Why would they have to play Ilyasova at SF? Have Andy and Zeller be your center rotation, Ersan and TT your PF’s.
Not tht it matters, since i’m sure they won’t so much s make an offer for him.
i wish my name was Shabazz.
Carry on….
It looks like they’ll try to suck for one more year. Looking at other teams that grew through the draft, OKC (3 years), Portland (3 years), Memphis (3 years), Atlanta (4 years), and the Wizards today (4 years) they all spent at least 3 years of relative bottom dwelling before becoming a 40 win team. If they are good this year, that’s great because it means Kyrie, TT, Waiters, and Zeller were much better than expected. If not, I won’t be that disappointed; then we’ll get a shot at a great big man (Noel, Cody Zeller, Adams, Gobert) or a… Read more »
If they get Ilyasova, that’d be great, but I think they are in “win now” mode if they do. Also, they’d have to commit to playing Ilyasova at the 3 for 15 minutes or so a night.
I think the Cavs should be offering a bunch of money at Batum. He is a great young player with elite athleticism and defensive skills. He would fit great into the Cavs system and would be good in transition too. In my opinion, he could become part of the young core of the Cavs. Kyrie, Waiters, Batum, TT, and Zeller would be a great team to build with
Aren’t we overlooking Lester Hudson?
I can’t believe that seven months after the lock-out ended; Roy Hibbert is getting offered max deals and Nic Batum gets offered 4 years & $50 million. $50 million!! That’s crazy…right?
“The Cavs don’t want to get tied up in slightly above average guys like Ilyasova or Jeff Green this year.”
If you think Ilyasova is just slightly above average, then i don’t think you’ve actually seen him play very much.
I don’t see many people suggesting big-money, long term free agents on here to begin with, so i have no idea where you’re coming from with that. And i don’t think there’s much chance that they’ll be bad enough this season to get a Top 5 pick again, unless they suffer an injury to Andy or Kyrie.
I know this isn’t a draft thread, so I apologize, but I never realized just how amazing Waiters advanced stats are. His PER, eFG% and AST%, ORtg, DRtg completely dominate Beal’s and Barnes’. Carry on.
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/dion-waiters-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/bradley-beal-1.html
http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/harrison-barnes-1.html
As a Wisconsin fan, Jordan Taylor is a stud. He may be undersized, but he’s extremely smart and doesn’t make many mistakes. As a junior, he also set the 4th best Assist:Turnover ratio in NCAA history, and would have been a first round draft pick had he come out, instead of staying for his senior year. I really hope the Cavs take a flier on Taylor and give him a chance to back up Kyrie.
Woah, we picked up Kevin Jones? Awesome. He can contribute immediately and be a rebounding machine.
Kevin, That’s the point of the one year guaranteed contact thing. In another year or two the Cavs will be ready to add whatever they need in FA or via trades that take back big contracts. If they add anyone now it has to be short term, like your plan, because they don’t really know what they need long term yet. After this year they will know what they have in Waiter’s and Zeller. This is a big year for TT’s evaluation also. If, as some people would like, they sign complementary FA’s now, and those three players don’t work… Read more »
JAG, I understand, it’s just that instead of the low-priced non cap-killers the Cavs are choosing, I strongly prefer slightly upgraded guys like Derrick Brown over Luke Harangody. In the long run, it doesn’t make a difference either way, but I am ready for Cleveland to win 40 games. Maybe Cavs management isn’t ready for that. Also, I’m going to give myself some props. At the start of this season, I wrote a fantasy article called Destination: 2013, where I espoused Cleveland going after Asik and Ryan Anderson in free agency this summer. I narrowly selected those two over Ersan… Read more »
Left a post about why the Cavs won’t be going after quality free agents this year for the comment monster. I do like Sonny Weems though. As for a 3rd PG, love to See Zack Rosen.
HoopsDogg,
I thought about including Zack Rosen in my 3rd PG discussion, but it appears that Harangody will be the third PG next year.
Hmmm. I am kind of baffled that you guys don’t seem to quite get Grant’s strategy for this year: he doesn’t want to be that good. Semi and Luke are terrible players. You don’t keep them for long term development if you want to be good. I think it’s obvious that the plan is: be bad for one more year, get another top 5 pick, leverage our other picks into a top 20, and then have a ton of money in the 2013 free agent class. LET all the other teams waste their free agent money this year. There will… Read more »
HoopsDogg, I understand Grant’s apparent strategy (I say apparent, because I don’t know exactly what they’re thinking). At this point though, I’m bored / frustrated with perpetually watching “terrible players”. At this point, I would like Cleveland to at least sign real NBA players to short-term & low-cost contracts. The potential flaw with the “Erden & Harangody strategy” that you don’t mention is “what if the (drafted) players don’t get good enough?” That is way more frequent than the issue of the players getting to good too fast. At some point, the team just needs to start signing quality players,… Read more »
Like the posted and the players listed. That being said from what it sounds like and with use picking up Luke and Erdin. The Cavs will probably get Sonny Weems and Jonny Flynn and call it a day. Don’t hate picking up ether because the Cavs core is young and will play alot of mins. Plus Dion Waiters will be cover some PG mins so no real need to have a 3rd PG unless someone gets hurt for awhile.
Again, I think this team needs shooting so I am proposing guys like Meeks and R. Butler and we can gripe all we want about potential but go look at FA Anthony Randolph’s PER last year. Just sayin…Oh and Meeks has a career TS% of .562 and an eFG% of .518 for his career. Dude can shoot…
Kj, I didn’t really look at Meeks for a few reasons: 1. As a starter on a playoff team and a quality shooter, my guess was Meeks might get a contract similar to what is being discussed for Gee. 2. Shooting isn’t what I was looking for. I thought a big wing seemed more critical on the team. Kyrie is obviously a great shooter – Gibson, too. Waiters maybe. Gee is 35% career from three and Casspi 36%. Zeller and DJ White (in my scenario) provide some floor spacing from the front court. I have a negative conception of Anthony… Read more »
For those still on the Valenciunus bandwagon Chad Ford recently made it clear that his agents threatened contract disputes if anyone but raptors took him. Apparently wouldn’t come over in that case.
What do you guys think of Jeff Green. I think he could be had at a bargain price and could still turn into a playoff caliber starter in my mind. He Has played on OKC and the Celtics behind Durant and Pierce. He adds side scoring and shooting.
rodney mac,
It sounds like a lot of teams are contacting Jeff Green. Assuming he has a choice, unless Cleveland significantly overpays, he’s probably not coming to Cleveland.
For cheap though, he would fit my “tall wing” criteria. He’s always been good at defending small forwards.
I like your choices Kevin but I doubt the Cavs really want to turn over half of their roster. The first sign of that reluctance is the fact they wanted to purge their extra draft picks. I just get the feeling that Scott likes having a group of players that are as familiar with his system as he is familiar with them. As far as signing FA’s to contracts I’ve noticed that Grant likes to keep as much of the bench as possible on one year guarantees. That gives him better flexibility with the CAP year to year for players… Read more »
JAG,
The “one-year guarantee” bench guy thing probably works for one more year, but when you have 5 or 6 of those guys…they’re not really end of the bench guys anymore. At the first sign of injury or foul trouble, suddenly you’re playing a couple of guys that essentially no one in the NBA besides you wanted.
I admire front office patience, but at some point as a fan, it would be nice to know that I never have to watch Luke Harangody play small forward again.
I don’t want anything to do with Johnny Flynn. He is mind-bogglingly terrible.
i really, really, REALLY want Ersan Ilyasova. That dude is a beast. Doubt there is any chance of hell that happens, but hot damn if that wouldn’t be the cat’s pajamas.
Wouldn’t mind trying to get Ian Mahinmi as another big.
Doubt there is any chance of getting Batum, but that would be might nice, as well.
I think we should go after that JJ Hickson fella. He looked pretty good with Portland, and i hear he has a ton of potential. Anybody familiar with him?
Cranky M,
I really like Ilyasova, but obviously went with a “small-ball” strategy for this post.
I came really close to including Mahinmi as the “Fourth Big”, but wanted a player with a jump shot, and White will also be cheaper. For two years, if White can play while Zeller is on the bench, the Cavs always have a big with a respectable jumper on the floor. White’s defense is pretty bad, but it’s not like I was trying to build a champion with the three pick-ups described here.
Unfortunately, our “tall wing” will probably end up as Luke Harangody and our fifth big will be Semih Erden.. which I guess is ok as they won’t be seeing much playing time anyway. At backup point I hope the Cavs look at Jonny Flynn or John Lucas III. Preferably Lucas, he could run a second unit well with Casspi and Zeller.
For some reason, I’ve always liked Kelenna Azibuke…he was a productive player @ Golden State…his per-36 stats would be impressive…maybe he can be the Cavs next diamond in the rough, a la Alonzo Gee this past season.
Derrick Brown and D.J. White ? Not so sure…maybe one of them.
McGrady….eh….NO.
4 x 8 and Tom,
Is there some McGrady related baggage that I am forgetting about?
At this point, he’s really reduced his usage, improved his passing, rebounding & defense, and even knocked down 46% of his threes last year. Surely an aberration, but as noted in the post, that’s 37% for the last two seasons. For 15 minutes a night, he’s turned into a quality role player. Better teams that Cleveland will definitely offer him to come play for the minimum.
Still waiting on the OJ Mayo comments….
Love the Derrick Brown idea. Not sure about T Mac. Don’t need any distractions from young guys developing. Glad you are on board with keeping Varejao. He isn’t slowing down for a few years.
Tom Pestak, Yeah, as I started looking at the available free agents, Derrick Brown really hit a nerve with me as a great short-term addition. I hope the Cavs consider some small additions like this. Can the team really go three straight off-seasons of free agency without adding ONE free agent that has even the slightest track record of NBA success. To keep belaboring this point; I’m over these situations where, as an example, someone gets hurt and Luke Harangody needs to play small forward for a game. Surely the team can bring in one player other through the draft… Read more »