We’re Back With Idiot Wonder
2012-09-23I’m glad the sportswriting world has embraced hackery. Or rather, we’ve embraced that everyone is to various degrees a hack. The knowledge that informs this sounds self-evident when stated in plain terms: you can’t know sports. That’s a nonsensical concept, and the people that hold fast to that idea tend to be ex-jock troglodytes or else just gigantic morons. You can only know things about sports. Writers like Bill Barnwell, Chris Brown, and John Hollinger demonstrate this, but the numerous stat and video analysis geeks remind us constantly: they don’t have predictive powers, and though math is sometimes involved, their use of it doesn’t produce well-wrought urns of analysis. They conduct themselves like sportsologists—the pseudo-scientific nomenclature is deliberate—constructing from data various models of how the games they analyze work. They’re not experts; they don’t hold pretensions to authority. (And when the rare sabermetrician or video analyst does write as if atop a sports knowledge throne, it’s every bit as insufferable as when Blowhard Broadcaster X sidles up to a microphone to condescend to you about how to defend pick’n’roll.) For the most part, they’re just obsessive people trying to figure stuff out.
If you’re reading this, there’s a decent chance you’re an obsessive person trying to figure stuff out about the Cleveland Cavaliers. You and me both, friend. I have figured out nothing. I spent forty minutes this afternoon figuring out which Thai place I wanted to order lunch from, and my brain’s still half-melted from finally watching the Bachelor Pad finale last night. We’re talking about a basketball team that might start four players who have played a combined 111 games in the NBA. I don’t follow college basketball; I haven’t been hanging out with Tristan Thompson all summer; and the only things I know about star formation are from watching Carl Sagan’s Cosmos a few years ago, so it’s not even like I could make an apt analogy about the Cavs being in their “red dwarf” stage or whatever. Consider this video of a baby elephant learning to walk my cogent analysis of the forthcoming Cavaliers season. Ponder the metaphor. Or perhaps just point at the screen and squeal in delight.
But here’s the thing: I think this season will be fun. Not fun in the ecstatic sense, but fun like a watching a David Attenborough documentary while being punched repeatedly in the left shoulder by a five year-old. Fun like learning something while accumulating bruises.
I think this is the year the Cavs will start to make some sense. Not individual players per se, but the team as an entity. Two years after shoving the post-Lebron roster through a rice thresher, Chris Grant has assembled something that resembles a professional basketball team. Or at least the best college basketball team in the country. We’re finally going to see talent interact with talent. Kyrie Irving, already one of the twenty or thirty best players in the league, won’t seem so out of place. There are arguments to be made about how good the Cavs’ offseason acquisitions can be, but they’re already markedly better than Luke Harangody and Ryan Hollins. They have motor skills much more advanced than that of the average toddler and don’t handle the ball as if it were an irate lobster. They’re basketball players—they know how to make lay-ups and everything!—and Cavs fans will be treated to something like basketball.
Bad basketball, probably. It’s not like this team fills me with evangelical fervor. But it arouses my curiosity in a way last year’s team didn’t. (You really only needed to watch 30-odd games before you figured out Irving’s great, TT’s a project, Alonzo Gee’s an eighth man, and everyone else is varying degrees of not-good.) Dion Waiters moves through the lane like a bowling ball on a hoverboard, and Tyler Zeller is the Cavs’ first athletic seven-footer since before Brad Daugherty’s back lit up like a Lite-Brite board of pain. They were both asked after the draft how they fit into the team, and I remember being confused by the word “fit,” which implies there’s an existing structure into which one needs to position oneself. Rookies need to fit themselves into teams with mostly-solidified rosters like the Spurs and the Celtics. The Cavaliers exist in a pocket of collapsed space-time wherein Kyrie Irving stands solitary, dribbling a basketball through his legs with a look of unease on his face, and Tristan Thompson flickers like a hologram. Do whatever you want, rookies. You might not be good right away, but at least you’re corporeal. Fill the emptiness with reverse lay-ins and mid-range jumpers. No one’s going to stop you.
So bully to anyone calling themselves an expert, but they can’t possibly be right. This team is one shade lighter than absolute black, and I just want to stare at it for a while and let my tempestuousness simmer. I want to embrace not knowing stuff and write about the darkness and what might be inside it. Then I want to write about the nascent light that hopefully emerges and what it illuminates. That’s what we’ll be doing this season at Cavs: The Blog. (Yes, we’re back in full and rolling out preseason coverage all this week. Wake the children.) This is all to say we’d be pleased if you would join us. It’s probably best if we travel in packs. Things are about to get weird.
Love the Ohio shout-out with a Bill Watterson(born in DC but an Ohio “native” in my heart) classic. Excited for this season, unless of course they get some of the same refs the NFL used last night. As a Cavs fan who didn’t really come into loving the team until LeBron’s second year (call me a bandwagon fan, that’s fair but I’ve never taken my fandom to South Beach and have loved them through all of this) I’m really pumped for an intriguing year. As an Ohio sports fan, i’m used to loss I just hope for some improvement and… Read more »
I actually think the Cavs could end up with a very similar record to last year. I think a lot of people forget that the Cavs biggest strength last year against opponents was their “bench mob” led by Sessions. He’s gone, Jamison’s gone – this team could look a lot like the team did at the end of last year -> BAD, plus Varejao -> MUCH LESS BAD but still blow average.
Bowling ball on a hoverboard somehow reminded me of Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 3 for the NES.
So, clearly lack of friction is the common denominator – so does that mean Waiters cannot be stopped or that he cannot change directions? Cus one is good and one is really really bad in today’s “slide in front of the defender at the last second” NBA.
Dotnetninja, stats lie all the time. Information can be used selectively, and certain variables cannot currently be accounted for. If they could be, the Houston Rockets would be winning titles left and right. Get off your high horse, and be a bit more civil. It’s more than fair to critique Colin’s work, but to call him naive is a bit inflammatory, don’t you think?
I’m a pretty stats obsessed guy, but they do have serious limits. If stats were the whole story, Hollinger’s draft rater would be right every time and the Cavs would be counting up the future championships right now. As it is, stats are only very mildly predictive, and the rest is basically random chance, which I think is what Colin’s getting at here. Stats are by far the best predictive tool available to us, but no matter how perfectly we analyze them our work is an intrinsically inexact science. For the Cavs, with so much youth, there’s not much data… Read more »
Humans are so predictable, as is the obvious naivety of intelligence that is on display in this post. I certainly hope that you are not the one making business decisions base on your site’s web analytics. What is “web analytics” you ask? It is, at it’s core the same thing as any type of analytics, including sports analysis. Analytics is the actionable insights from a huge list of “what”. We all know human beings tend to follow a pattern in anything they do. Those trends can be plotted, measured, and put to good use. You ignoring & denouncing those “what”… Read more »
pretty sure the cavs, unless both Dion and Zeller are busts (or play like it in year 1), will win at least 15% more of their games this year with relative health. Take into account Kyrie and Andy playing the majority of the season, CJ miles over Casspi, however much improved Thompson is, and no Tawn to play volume shooter/turnstile defender, and we should be a much better team on the court. Whether that translates into the playoffs or not remains up to the level the youngin’s can get to early on, and how well they cohere into a team… Read more »
Teams with star perimeter players literally always end up winning games one way or another. I’m sure I have another reason to be optimistic but I forgot what it was.
I’ll parallel this upcoming NBA season to the Cleveland Browns current one. The end result will be the same, losses, but they are much more fun to watch and root for. You tend to forgive mistakes when its young (and talented!) guys trying to learn the game out there.