Preview: Magic at Cavaliers, February 11th
2010-02-11
Relevant Statistics:
Pace: Orlando 95.2 (14th) vs. Cleveland 93.2 (25th)
Offensive Efficiency: Orlando 106.7 (8th) vs. Cleveland 108.7 (4th)
Defensive Efficiency: Orlando 99.4 (2nd) vs. Cleveland 100.1 (5th)
Notes:
The notes for this one come from an exchange between me and Orlando Pinstriped Post’s Eddy Rivery, one of my favorite blogs and bloggers. I’m over there, here’s Eddy responding to my questions. (Crappy formatting is my fault, due to some issues with copy-pasting from gmail that I don’t have time to fix.)
1. The CW regarding the Magic is that they need to take less threes and feed Dwight more. Has Dwight advanced enough as an offensive player so that dumping him the ball and letting him work in the post is a winning strategy? If he can catch it in dunking range, it’s over. If he can get a true size or speed matchup, like he did against the Cavs, he can make the really close ones. But I’m not in love with the running hooks or quick lefty counter-hooks from 8-10 feet he tries to utilize when he’s actually defended in a post-up situation. I figure if he doesn’t make those 50% of the time (and I’m not sure he makes them 40% of the time, although I haven’t seen all his games), why not take a three instead?
According to Hoopdata, Dwight Howard shoots 42.6% from less than 10 feet so that answers the first part of your question.
In short: At this stage of his career, can an offense run through Dwight Howard be more effective than the Magic’s current offense?
Well, the Magic’s current offense has been a Howard-centric offense. Ever since Howard’s embarrassing performance against the Portland Trail Blazers roughly a month ago, where he allowed Dante Cunningham, Juwan Howard, and Jeff Pendergraph to hold him to 11 points, 11 rebounds, and 2 blocks, he’s becoming more and more the focal point of the offense. Howard wants the basketball, his teammates are giving it to him, and the results speak for themselves. The Magic have won 10 of its last 12 games. That’s no coincidence, though there are other factors for Orlando’s winning ways.
The key, and the Magic understand this, is that the team needs to play inside-out to maximize the offense’s productivity. Whether or not Howard scores is somewhat irrelevant. A perfect example of this is when Orlando played, arguably, its best quarter of the season against the Boston Celtics on Sunday. In the third quarter of the game, the Magic scored 36 points and did it by playing inside-out (executing 4-out/1-in offensive sets, for example). Howard only had 8 points in the period but Orlando was executing flawlessly on the offensive side of the ball.
Did I mention Boston is ranked 1st in Defensive Rating, by the way? I digress.
The point is, yes, it is a winning strategy to let Howard work in the post. An important factor is the fact that Howard is starting to score with more consistency this year against certain defenders that have bothered him in the past, like Kendrick Perkins. And Howard is improving as a passer on the low block, too (though the statistics don’t show that).
2. It’s cliche, but I gotta ask. What’s up with Vince Carter, and what’s been different this month?
The difference?
Carter is attacking the basket more and converting at the rim. To put things in perspective, Carter was 17-35 (48.6%) at the rim in the month of January (14 games) when his offensive numbers took a nosedive. In the month of February (4 games), Carter is 16-22 (72.8%) at the rim. Big difference.
Of course, Carter’s stats on offense have improved across the board the past few games but it helps when he’s getting layups because it means he’s not settling for jumpshots. It shows he’s being aggressive on the offensive side of the ball, too.
That and I think Carter is starting to feel more comfortable in the offense. Carter is content being the second option (Howard being the first option), but is willing to step up and dominate if needed.
3. Of Matt Barnes, Ryan Anderson, Brandon Bass, and Jason Williams, who are the keepers? Anderson’s been a beast on paper but hasn’t been getting many minutes; should he be getting more burn?
Keepers: Barnes, Anderson, and Williams.
I’ll keep it short.
Barnes because he’s the best compliment to the four All-Stars and he provides a physical toughness the Magic haven’t had in years. Anderson because, at the age of 21, he appears to be Rashard Lewis’ successor at power forward. Williams because he’s been the perfect back-up point guard for Orlando, teasing people with White Chocolate moments here and there.
Bass is expendable, in theory, because he hasn’t been a good fit for the Magic at power forward. Bass isn’t a stretch four and because of that fact, Orlando’s offense suffers when he’s on the court. On defense, it’s a similar story. With Bass on the floor, the Magic allow 7.59 more points per 100 possessions. The only solution, in my opinion, is to play Bass at center. Bass spent the majority of his time with the Dallas Mavericks at that spot last year and he played good, so there’s no reason why he can’t do the same thing in Orlando if it weren’t for Marcin Gortat being Howard’s primary back-up.
For those rare times Bass has seen minutes at center with the Magic, he’s presented a unique wrinkle when the team runs 4-out/1-in offensive sets because of his ability to shoot the mid-range jumper with efficiency. Plus, his defense – despite being undersized – isn’t as big of an issue. Rebounding would be a problem because Bass isn’t a good rebounder for his position but Orlando could remedy the situation by playing Barnes, someone that can rebound effectively as a small forward, alongside him. I can go on but I’ll stop.
As for Anderson, he should be getting more burn but not at the expense of Rashard Lewis, who’s been playing well the past few weeks and making clutch shots.
4. Jameer’s +/- has been bad this year, and his defensive numbers are flat-out ugly. Can he return to the way he was playing before he got hurt last season, and would you consider him a core piece of the team?
Jameer Nelson has shown flashes of the brilliance that made him an All-Star last season so sure, he can return to the way he was playing before he got hurt. The question remains whether or not Nelson can play at a high level on a consistent basis. At this point, it’s tough to say one way or the other.
The second part of your question is a good one. I would say yes, he’s a core piece of the team. But for that designation to remain as is, Nelson does need to play at or near an All-Star level. If Nelson does that, then the Magic have themselves a bargain player considering the contract he has. It’s a wait and see approach.
Hickson is just showing way too much potential. I realize that the night-in night-out results aren’t there, but his athleticism is off the charts and he’s figuring out how to use it.
Huge love for Boobie once again – the guy just hits clutch 3 after clutch 3. He’s GOT TO PLAY even when Mo comes back (but only with LeBron!)
Just keep repeating this line to yourself Jason “Next year, Hickson will be better than Murphy at the age of 22.” We can not make the trade the Pacers want…it would be a disaster.
It was indeed a fun game to watch. However, I’m really starting to be torn on Hickson. At times, he’s so good. Then, at other times he bricks a wide open jumper. I want to keep him, but he needs to stop shooting jumpers! On the other hand, Andy needs to take more of those little hook shots!
And Lebron… Wow. Dimes, ridiculous jumpers, anything and everything. Wow.
Was at the game tonight, and the Q was absolutely rockin’. During a timeout right around the 6-7 minute left mark in the 4th, you could absolutely see a switch click on in LeBron’s demeanor and he kicked it into massive take over mode. It was insane. Go cavs!
These next 6 games are going to be a real test for the Cavs. Denver and New Orleans at home, then Orlando, Boston, Charlotte, and Toronto on the road.
Jawario’s effort was stellar.
Not a single played poorly tonight either except for probably Jawad. Even Parker going 1-6 was ok because he played very stellar and very rough defense on Carter. He fouled when he needed to and wasn’t going to let anyone get easy buckets on him. He also got called for a couple (the one on nelson was a joke) of cheap fouls and never stopped playing hard even when his offense wasn’t going. Really, really like the way Parker played tonight.
I just want a video of LBJ’s turnaround jumper over Pietrus with 2 min left…
Simply can’t involve Hickson in a trade for Troy Murphy at this point. If a move doesn’t happen, then it’s ok, because we can’t just make a trade for the sake of making a trade. Hickson is going to be a better player than Murphy as early as next season and we have to think of the future.
That was a fun game to watch.
Nuclear assault from the 3 point line!
Anyone have a link to a live stream of this game? Thanks in advance.