Trade Ideas: Non-Varejao Edition
2012-12-20
Why wait for free agency for Millsap? Let's get him now.
The cool idea is to acquire more draft picks. Â I am anything but cool.
It is time to start considering a different type of trade; the desired return no longer consists of unknown quantities, but instead, proven commodities.
Assuming the Lakers reach the playoffs this year and Sacramento evades the dregs of the NBA in the next five; Cleveland possesses 14 draft picks in the next four years. Unfortunately, only twelve guys wear the wine & gold every night. With Kyrie quickly climbing the NBA ladder, next year represents the time for a big move forward. And frequently, free agency serves as a bastion of disappointment. So what to do?
Time to turn palatable contracts and draft picks into contributors. Below, I present three trades where Cleveland helps a middling team turn their prospects in a more favorable projection.
Trade One
What a mess the Dwight Howard trade became for Philadelphia. Their payroll rests at $65 million this year, and $47 million next season, for nine players, none named Andrew Bynum. If they are a fringe playoff team, two of their next three first round draft picks are dealt. With that bloated payroll and dearth of upcoming draftees, they built a five-hundred team.
I can help. How about: Thaddeus Young for Luke Walton, Samardo Samuels, 2013 Lakers / Miami pick and lesser of 2015 Miami or Cleveland selection?
Why it works for Cleveland: At 24, Young combines youth, production, and a reasonable contract (3 years after this, for $28 million). In this season and the last two, his PER hovers between 18 & 19, while RAPM considers him an above-average defender. His most glaring weakness, rebounding, pairs well with the Cleveland contingent of Varejao and Tristan. Add in Tyler Zeller, and a strong, reasonably-priced rotation mans the frontcourt for several years.
Why it works for Philadelphia: Did you see the lead? Other than owning Bynum’s Bird Rights, the Sixers could not make a max-offer to a free agent this off-season. If they make the playoffs, their pick goes to Miami, which then triggers their 2015 pick towards Orlando. A lottery pick this off-season remains theirs and sets the dominoes back one year. Trading Young and abandoning this season turns them from a “first-round-exit with a future of perpetual mediocrity” into a team building around Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie, $20 million in cap space and four 2013 draft picks (probably around 10th, 20th, 35th and 42nd…not bad). Other than this season, future prospects appear brighter.
Trade 2
Paul Millsap sits near the top of many free agent lists. But what if Utah wants something in return? In Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter, Utah currently preps twenty and twenty-one year old top-three draft picks as their front-court of the future. It seems unlikely to re-sign Millsap to a deal extending into their next contracts. Rather than plow through another April playoff exit, Utah should trade Millsap.
How about: Paul Millsap (signing an extension) for Walton, Gee, 2013 Lakers / Miami pick, Orlando 2014 2nd rounder, and worse of Miami / Cleveland 2015 selection.
Why it works for Cleveland: Millsap is really good. Plus a contract extension amounts to his age 28 – 31 seasons, still very near prime performance. Based on PER, he always resides as a top-35 NBA player. RAPM, which loves his defensive contributions, ranks him as one of the NBA’s best-twenty from 2010 – 2011 through this season. An efficient scorer with a solid mid-range jumper, and an excellent rebounder, the Millsap / Varejao duo provides an exceptionally productive and underrated front-court to pair with Kyrie and whatever Tristan, Zeller, and Waiters become. Also, Cleveland still keeps all their picks, plus a future Sacremento first-round and two extra second-round choices.
Why it works for Utah: Assume that February approaches, and Utah stands embroiled in a four-team race for the opportunity to get thumped by the Thunder in the Playoffs. Their long-term plans strongly consider letting Millsap walk via free agency. Shouldn’t they look to get something in return? With this trade, they enter Summer 2013 with their young core of Favors, Kanter, Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks, combined with three first-round choices and $30 million in cap space. Gee brings veteran athleticism at a reasonable price.
Trade 3
Portland’s record currently resides at a mediocre 11 and 12. Their 2013 – 2014 payroll eclipses $44 million for nine players, with 2014 – 2015 touching $45 million for eight players. None of those players is J.J. Hickson, presently fifth on the team in minutes and pacing them in PER. At some point, they owe a top-12 protected pick to Charlotte.  Their best five players turned 27, 26, 24, 24 and 22 this season and have played in 96% of their games, against the League’s fifth-easiest schedule. Where is this team going? A fringe playoff team, minus one draft pick, with limited ability to add salary, and a bulk of their core already entering their prime? Maybe they win 8 of their next 10, but if not (Hollinger Playoff Odds are 7%), perhaps a shake-up is in order.
How about: Wesley Matthews for Alonzo Gee, Jon Leuer and 2013 Laker / Miami pick.
Why it works for Cleveland: As a third guard to pair with Kyrie and Dion, Matthews makes sense. Possessing good size, and as a 39% career three-point bomber, he will spread the floor for his new driving back-court mates. An efficient scorer, who tries on defense, there are a reasonable 2 years and $14 million remaining on his contract.
Why it works for Portland: Did you read everything above? Â If January passes with this team still winning half and losing half, it seems time to make a move. Â This move gives them the opportunity to make a max offer (similar to this off-season with Hibbert) and also restores their missing draft pick. Â Gee presents a serviceable replacement for Matthews; before being buried in Cleveland, Jon Leuer played well for Milwaukee; this move offers reasonable ‘now’ and ‘later’ situations for the Blazers.
Summary: Those are the three trades. Â Time to add some talent, using the plethora of picks the team accumulated.
@Brad
Toronto has already gotten their picks from Miami. The Cavs have the Heat’s 2015 pick, top 10 protected.
Believe Toronto has Miami’s 2015 and the Cavs have the Miami 2017 pick
oh and andy’s getting married
Z told me the lakers pick is unprotected
wrote that off my phone……….. bad idea..
Sorry our night clubs are NOT Miami like.
I thought about B Wright. I just feel he’s what we’ve got in TT. So I left him off. I agree with the JR and Millsap comments btw. Along with any decent vet really is that we will have to over pay, but at some point it would have to intrigue someone to come play with Kyrie that’s got to be a decent pitch to any of these guys. I sat next to C Brewer one time at a Cavs gm while he was on IR for Minn. He was amazed at how loud our arena was, told me he’s… Read more »
I agree with you, btw, Joe. I’d love Williams. He’s definitely talented, he’s just misused in Minn. They probably know that, too. I think they’ll end up keeping him just because he’s clearly more valuable than he currently looks. I’ve heard, though, that the Wolves aren’t interested in this deal.
But that’s probably the one Andy trade that I can get behind completely. If we can get a legit NBA center PLUS a talented young guy who clearly has some NBA-level skills then I’d do it. I just don’t know that it’ll happen.
Isn’t the Toronto pick top 3 protected?
@Mallory: I think the Wolves deal Williams in a heartbeat. He’s not happy, he doesn’t rebound or defend well, he doesn’t have a naturally defined position, and they don’t have minutes for him with Love and AK47. (He’s only cracked twenty minutes in a game once since Thanksgiving). Varejao improves Minnesota overnight and gives them someone to run the pick and roll with Rubio and help Love with the dirty work. Now with all that you might say ‘then why do the Cavs want Williams?’ because of he’s a born scorer, a natural compliment for Irving and we have minutes… Read more »
Haha thanks Carter.
So, uh, guys, I think Mallory wants a little validation.
Whatever people projected onto Hickson is on them. I am simply talking about the way he played in Cleveland, and the way Tristan Thompson plays in Cleveland. Kevin thats good analysis on the late picks. I honestly haven’t given them a ton of value. Thad Young would be an awesome fit, but I think Philly would want a bit more back. Not sure what though. Can you sign extensions in the season? That is the problem with the Millsap offer. If we were actually looking at a playoff berth than taking a risk for 3 months and trying to extend… Read more »
David,
Check out the discussion between Nate and I below. Yes, an extension could be signed during the season, but as Nate properly pointed out, a sign-and-extension could only include a couple of years after this one (plus only 4.5% raises instead of 7.5%). Millsap probably wouldn’t be interested in such a deal. My bad…
Kevin – I definitely get your thinking – don’t cry wolf until you’re sure it’s a wolf, blah blah. It’s totally true that bad teams have had awful stretches. But HORRIBLE teams have also had stretches like this. In fact, 9/10 these stretches are indicative of bad teams, not good ones that are struggling. The number is probably way higher than 9/10. Probably 99/100.
Mallory,
I’m not necessarily even saying ‘good’ teams, just ‘young’ teams. The one example I keep mentioning involved a team relying heavily on young players, basically three top-five picks in two years. They weren’t good yet; they were very bad, but they were on their way. The Thunder did fire their coach.
Agreed, Kevin. I’m probably pre-mature in this. But it’s my gut feeling paired with what I’ve seen on the court. We’d have to see Waiters suddenly stop taking contested jump shots, TT consistently get 8-12 points, and top tier production from Andy. Plus our bench would have to turn it on. I just don’t see that happening with any more consistency than it has this season. My guess is the first thing that happens is Scott gets canned, but this organization, for some bizarre reason, seems pretty happy with the way things have gone.
Kevin, I didn’t realize that non-restricted players can sign an extension at any time. From what I’m reading, the limit of a “extend and trade” contract is 3 additional years, which is probably one less year than Millsap is looking for. http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q9 So that might be a tough sell. But the idea isn’t bad.
Corey, Please review my free agents list from last week, as I think you’re missing some guys, most specifically Brandan Wright.
Nate Smith,
You are correct about the ‘extend and trade’. I didn’t realize this…the CBA is complicated. So, if Howard excepted an extension from LAL, it could have only been for three years? With that as the case, no wonder he chose to keep his free agency open.
That does complicate my proposed Millsap trade. Eh, if he wouldn’t accept whatever Cleveland can offer him, then there’s no trade.
Nate Smith,
Yeah, it looks like I messed up. Actually looking at the faq, it looks like this season counts towards the three seasons. So, only two years could be added to Millsap’s current deal. I am suprised by this. When disucssions of trading & extending Howard, Bynum, etc come up, it doesn’t seem like this is ever mentioned. Am I missing something? I guess these deals happen less than seems apparent.
I’ve mentioned this in comments before, but as an unpaid blogger, I disclaim responsibility for understanding every wrinkle of the CBA. Sorry, readers.
Unfortunately, Joe, I don’t think the Thunder or Twolves make those trades. Gee’s value is completely overstated here and Derek Williams, despite a mediocre beginning, is still supremely talented and very young. He hasn’t really been given the opportunity to shine yet, and I think MN knows that. They definitely wouldn’t trade him when his value is this low.
Swirving, I agree. There’s a lot of projecting of hopes onto these players. TT is fine at D and is young – he’ll probably get better. To what degree, who knows. But lets stop calling him a force. If TT was a defensive monster, Dion was a budding superstar, and Gee was a lockdown defeender and decent spot up shooter, we’d be a fringe playoff team. We’ve won five games.
Mallory,
While I agree with questioning unabated optimism, I think you’re a little premature with the “we’d be a fringe playoff team”. Obviously in 2008 – 2009, Durant and Westbrook were on their way to become two of the game’s best players. Durant and Jeff Green had played 31 of the first 32 games and Westbrook all 32. They were 3 and 29; half their games had been at home. If the team doesn’t improve as the season carries on, then the concern is more warranted.
Mallory,
Also I know you don’t think that Kyrie is the equivalent of Durant (almost impossible). And it’s not likely that Waiters is an Olympian in 2016. My basic point is just that this 5 – 22 start doesn’t foretell doom; really good teams had similar stretches.
ALSO Southwest – really, in what world is Waiters a star? It’s fine to remain hopeful, but be realistic. There’s a SLIVER of a chance he becomes a star – that’s the case with almost any draft pick. But right now he’s extremely flawed. If he puts it together, great, but lets not jump the gun here.
Its also unfair to point out how you felt about both players while wearing the wine and gold, as Hickson was our last saving grace to convince Lebron to stay, and thusly had hugely unfair expectations put on his shoulders, and was judged in a much different light. Then when lebron left, a fan base accustomed to 60 win seasons watched him lead a team to wins in the teens. Its an entirely different situation and mindset than watching TT, who has struggled as much or more than hickson, but on a team with next to no expectations. And I’m… Read more »
And Kevin, I definitely agree getting a decent-ish role player is a top priority. I’m actually of the camp that says if you’ve got one megastar, another fringe all star, and a lot of excellent role players you can compete. I actually like that formula way more than the “three big stars and a bunch of junk” theory because it actually gives you longevity. If Lebron and/or Bosh leave Miami, they’re suddenly pretty bad. But the Mavs continue to at least be competitive (despite last night) even though time and time again they let people walk.
Southwest FL here’s my question – what guarantee is there that we get a star in the draft? If we don’t get one this year, do we keep tanking?
I think my biggest issue with how bad we’ve been is that it feels so unnatural. Even though we’ve drafted four guys in the top 20 in two years, we’re still horrific. That’s not really natural progression of improvement.
No one is asking to ship TT out of town. What we are saying is that it is worrisome that our front office used the #4 pick on a player that might never be as good as the player we forced out of town because of that #4 selection. And if you’ll recall, before that pick happened, Hickson most certainly was part of our core moving forward, and didn’t play that badly for us either the year prior. He didn’t ever suck except for the year in Sacramento. I still hope TT becomes a much better player than hickson, and… Read more »
@ Corey: I think there were some great fits, some okay fits, and some places we’d disagree on the players. The problem I see is players saying “coming off the bench for a lottery team seems like a good career move” more than likely the JR Smith/ Milsap types would only end up here if it meant 1. An increased roll or 2. More $ or years. Also with the cavs unfortunately its teams would be in decussions with us probably jump to Andy, young talent, or future picks pretty quickly so dangling Gee might stop negotiations before they start… Read more »
Kevin’s point lends credence to those (including me) griping about TT. He’s not like Andy drafted late who you can afford to keep around for 6-8 years before it clicks for him. In 2015(QO), TT is due upwards of $7.1M. He needs to step it up to stick around. Which reminds me, remember when some people were ripping on Andy’s deal? Man, that thing is a gem. As for the parallels of TT to Hickson, Hickson always flashed offensive talent, it was he rebounding and work ethic that was the problem. Hickson decided to up his worth ethic, good for… Read more »
I agree that the Cavs need to acquire proven commodities in order to build a team that can contend not only in a 3-4 year window, but for the next decade. My problem with making these trades THIS year, is that the NBA is a much different animal than MLB or the NFL. Unless you are in a mega market in the NBA and can entice super stars to team up and sign/demand being traded to you, the only way to acquire stars is via the lottery, and really the top 1-5 picks at that. The only way to win… Read more »
side-note: how many techs get called in the pacers game tonight? If Andy plays, I say three. If he doesn’t, I say zippo. The pacers HATE andy verajao.
I think the best sales point we have us cap space. I don’t really think Gee is going to entice teams into a trade. The guy didn’t get any big offers in FA. If people wanted him, they would’ve offered him $. We’re likely going to have to part with TT/Dion/Zeller for a big-ish trade.
I love the Tyreke/Salmons idea, though. I think it’s actually a two-fold win.
I wasn’t considering a trade for Thad Young or Wes Matthews as biggish; salary relief, a reasonably priced role player and a few draft picks seemed sufficient.
Ok, so we disagree. I’m ready for more people to argue with me.
Interesting point, Kev. I still think a late first rounder probably won’t be enough to seriously entice teams, though.
But in each trade, it’s some combination of salary relief, Gee, multiple late first rounders, etc.
We need VETS for our bench. I was going thru the list. Came up with these by position in order. Personally would rather spend on JR than Millsap. If we keep Andy that is. Back up PG’s — If we can pay boobie 4.8 mill, we can spend 2-4 easily for a backup pg Foye(2-4 Mill) Ideal backup PG for the 2nd team. Mo Williams(4mill) 2’s JR Smith(4-6 Mill) (he’s done a lot of growing up and would be 6th man of yr for us.) Shannon Brown(4-6) Tony Allen(2-4) Great VET leader, would be ideal on a 2/3 yr deal… Read more »
I like option C. As much as I like Gee, Wesley Mathews 3point shooting would do so much for Waiters and Irving’s development. He could be our 3rd guard but still possesses enough size to guard most SFs in the league. At that point, we could overpay Millsap(10-12mil) and add another lottery pick this year, ideally Shabazz. Pg Kyrie Sg Waiters SF Shabazz PF Milsap C Zeller with Andy and Mathews as our first big/guard off bench. Throw in Tristan and an average backup PG and…we’d lose somehow because we are Cleveland(that part hurt). Though I wonder if Mathews starting… Read more »
The lakers need a stretch forward. Andy is not that. Do I think they become much better? You bet.
I think the desperate team at the moment is the Lakers. They would probably be willing to trade some potential assets. Jordan Hill and Ebanks for Gibson and Casspi and a pick could work.
I like your thinking Nate. Eat a bad contract to grab a player. Grant has used Gilbert’s willingness to eat bad deals to land Kyrie and Zeller. If they make a trade this year I think it will be something closer to these. He has an owner who is willing to spend and that’s his greatest bargaining chip. I doubt Gilbert’s patience will last much longer, but these are ideal deal. Sarver is like the guy who sucks at Monopoly and is going broke so he’ll trade you a primo piece of real estate for a couple bones. They obviously… Read more »
I see the Lakers trying to grab Andy as well, Nate. I think it will be discussed.
The more I look at NBA rosters, the more I feel like there just won’t be that many trades this season. I think a lot of rosters have been pared down, so that there will not be that many teams in Salary trouble next year. It’s really only going to be Lakers, Memphis, Golden State, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Chicago, Clippers, Boston, and OKC, and all of those teams are pretty locked into their rosters. There will probably be a Gasol trade, and we may be a third party to it, but other than that I think there are… Read more »
Have to agree with Dave. I do not want to give up on TT too early, because A) He plays hard. B) His sins are usually sins of execution, not effort or just being a general knucklhead C) He’s very engaging, and he’s just likeable as heck D) I see flashes, and more flashes than I ever saw from Hickson… He needs a better coach. Anyway, as for the trades. Trade 1 is ok… Thad Young isn’t a bad SF, but I’m wary of small forwards that can’t shoot 3s. Still, he’d be our best shotblocker and one of our… Read more »
Nate Smith, My Millsap trade was contingent on agreeing on a contract with him. If it’s a 3 month rental, then I agree, “no way”. It takes the uncertainty out of signing him, which is obviously not a given. For Utah, they are battling for the right to lose to OKC (as of this morning, they are out of the playoffs). If that is their goal this season, I guess that’s fine. The team never holds many chips in a sign-and-trade, so you don’t get much. As far as weak drafts, the last one was 2011. That produced Kyrie Irving.… Read more »
Nate Smith,
And for Portland, it’s $44 million next year, plus $45 million the year after (assuming they pick up Lillard and Meyers Leonard). That’s doesn’t include Hickson. So, if they re-sign Hickson, they basically have the mid-level exception left, with Lillard as the only player young enough to expect much growth from. I guess they can spin on the treadmill of mediocrity, but if they continue winning half their games, some change seems warranted.
Matthews isn’t a S&T candidate because he’s signed through 2014 – 2015.
Cavs need payroll. They will be seriously under the minimum next year. Baron Davis is being paid $12 million this year and it counts. There are not great free agents coming out next year. Draft choices get paid NBA-set salaries. Therefore, this type of trade makes great sense. Many Cavs fans seem to value late draft choices. In the NFL, a 6th round draft choice is probably a top 8 player at his position. (24 positions counting PK, Nickel, Slot WR, etc. 24 X 8 = 192/6 rds. X 32 = 192.) There are only 3 positions in the NBA;… Read more »
And wait, Brandon, c’mon, give me some credit, man. I don’t think ANYONE has argued stronger on here for vet presence than I have.
Alright that was over the top. But I think it’s what we need. haha
Brandon –
AMEN! PROVEN VETS. That’s what we need. It’s pretty dang clear.
@David, thank you for pointing this out… @Kevin, I completely agree with you that this team needs to start acquiring proven commodities. The lack of veteran presence on this team is uglier than I could have imagined (we still have only 5 wins?!). I want nothing to do with more draft picks at this point. Kyrie will be an All-Star next year (if not this season); we need to surround him with players that can actually roll with him. I don’t particularly want to watch a struggling rookie SF play catch up while we waste another year of Kyrie. It… Read more »
Does no one see the irony, as we do the Hickson watch, in being upset that a young big man figured it out when he left Cleveland, that everyone wants to run Tristan Thompson out at the same time?
I have watched 75% of Cavs games since 2002. Tristan has been so much more impressive through 80 some pro games than Hickson was.
Stealing a Tom moment – anyone see the game Hickson is having, again, through three?????
I like the players mentioned but I still think Grant will wait until after the season. Sports is full of the unknowns and that’s part of it’s appeal as a subterfuge. We have no idea which direction this bottle in the ocean is gonna go. What we do know is that teams are scared of stars leaving for no return. Teams are terrified that they will become…the Cavs. Since Lebron left Melo, Williams, Paul, Howard, Harden have been traded preemptively ….There will be other trades like this in the next few seasons. Through 2014-15 the Clippers, Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Nets,… Read more »
I completely agree with JAG – late first rounders hold pretty minimal value. And most these teams will have plenty of cap space. I just don’t see that being enough to get a deal done.
Mallory and JAG, I think you are undervaluing the value of late first rounders. Yesterday in a comment, I saw Mallory refer to an article I wrote last year about the eventual production of players coming from the various draft slots. One point of that article was that the 26 – 30 picks provided better “value” than the 11 – 15 picks. Looking at draft pick salary structure, #17 pick Tyler Zeller has a contract as follows: 2 years guaranteed at $3.2 million total, then 2 years of team options at $4.3 million total, then he becomes a restricted free… Read more »
cavs send varejao, kings pick, lakers pick, and samardo samuels to milwauke for ths years first round pick, john henson, doron lamb, and drew gooden
I totally agree that trading draft picks might become the best way for Grant to proceed in order to improve the Cavs roster. I think you might be a little optimistic about the value of the Cavs late first rounders. One thing to consider is that if the Cavs decide to trade out of the upcoming draft because of it’s lack of talent, those picks might not be as valuable to other team’s either. With Utah already having two mid first rounders, that plausibly could both become lottery picks, picks are not that valuable to them. That is especially true… Read more »
JAG, As far the value of the Cavs late first rounders, in every trade, I used the Lakers pick this year. Currently they are as bad or worse than each of these teams. The Lakers pick could be 18 – 20, which in the case of Portland or Philly is close to the value of the pick they lose if they make the playoffs. For Utah, I don’t know. It seems that Gee plus draft picks is better than nothing. Maybe they’ll play the season out, or maybe another team will offer a package of players that sways them. Maybe… Read more »
That first trade looks like a really good deal for both teams.