The OKC Model: A Referendum on Coaching
2012-12-21
Yeah, I coached Durant and Westbrook. What's it to ya?
At the tail end of the comments for Nate’s article yesterday; Tom, Mallory, and me briefly discussed the “OKC Model”. To varying degrees, thoughts on the frequency of this model’s success range somewhere between “finding a unicorn” and “eh, let’s wait and see”.
Occasionally though, I do marvel at some of the relatively inane similarities between the OKC and Cleveland re-builds. For example:
Step #1: Clear house. Following the 2006 – 2007 season, OKC traded Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. Beyond the obvious LBJ leaving, Cleveland spent 2010 – 2011 peddling Mo Williams, JJ Hickson, Delonte West, etc
Step #2: With two top-five picks secured, draft a perimeter player that looks poised for superstardom and a forward that appears destined for a more average spot in the NBA constellation (Durant & Kyrie, Jeff Green & TT, for those that aren’t trying very hard).
Step #3: Have another miserable season.
Step #4 With the fourth pick in the next draft, select a sophomore combo-guard praised for defense and transition play. Ensure the pick surprises most observers.
Step #5: In the same draft, using a late first round pick acquired via trade, draft a big man.
Step #6: Start the next season miserably. Fire your coach. Hire a fresh-faced, untested coach. Turn the season around.
Step #7: Make the playoffs the next year.
Well, the Cavs are midway through step #6. With five wins and twenty-two losses, they easily surpass OKC’s 3 and 29 start to 2008 – 2009…then the Thunder promptly rallied with 20 wins in their final 50 games.
Step 6b? The Cavs have not reached that point. They employ the reigning rookie-of-the-year; the best debuting point guard since Chris Paul. Acquiring their starting shooting guard was like “hitting the jackpot”. Starting at Center is a ball-of-energy averaging 14 points and 14 rebounds, rapidly declaring his bid for All-Star status. And currently the Cavs rank bottom-four in the NBA for offense and defense. The offense frequently acts as “every man for himself”; the fourth lowest share of their field goals are assisted, with the second lowest frequency of possessions including an assist. Players do not seem to understand their roles. On defense, they often play catch-up, chasing the opponent around, and ranking fourth-worst for percentage of opponent’s field goals that are assisted (and the opponent is making a lot of field goals).
It’s time to poop or get off the toilet. After Saturday, Cleveland receives a restful Holiday break. Starting December 26th, thee next ten games feature Washington, Charlotte and Sacramento. How about a referendum on the team’s coaching? Four wins in those ten, or the Cavs look for a new coach? Then the ten games after that…same thing.
The “OKC Model” has worked once. Based on their schedule, now is the time for the foundation to start showing signs of becoming a skyscraper. I don’t know how twitter works, but #TwentyMoreWinsorCavsFindaNewCoach
there’s a difference between pj carlesimo and bscott. pj was only ever good taking over for semi-good teams, got literally choked out by his own players, and looks like a monkey.
bscott turned around TWO defunct franchises and made serious title contenders out them. granted it was only after he got all-star caliber point guards, but he’s got that now!
give him some time. he took over a terrible team, and will turn it around if given the time.
The Cavs are less than the sum of their parts because they are playing without key players for extended amounts of time. Not having Anderson Varejao or Kyrie Irving for multiple games hurts/sucks. Having said that, it will be very disappointing if the team doesn’t win 25 games. I still think they can get to 30 wins, but I will admit it gets more difficult by the game
In OKCs 2nd season on December 21 they were 3-25 (Cavs are now 5-23 on December 21). OKC went on to be 10-18, and 10-16. In season 3 they won 50 games.
If the Cavs finish out their 2nd season in similar fashion it will feel a bit Erie. If they win 50 next year Ill start buying into the OKC formula.
It makes me sad to see Kevin writing an article that takes such a simplistic view of the OKC model. As I’ve stated before the OKC model is a lot more complicated than just rotely following the exact decisions OKC made in their rebuild. The plan is about having to make decisions year to year, while having enough assets and flexibility to make those decisions. So far the decisions the Cavs have made are similar to what Presti did, but they are only similar because the choices presented to Grant were similar to the choices Presti had. I truly believe… Read more »
JAG,
The last thing you said is exactly what I said. I just asked for noticeable improvement.
How did OKC’s bench compare with the Cavs bench at step 6?
Many agree with Kevin. Just go the Q and hear the groans from people on Scott. I’ve say it once again. Why do you bench Pargo when he is clearly the better scoring back up point guard? Pargo pts 24 Detroit, 13 Portland, 22 Atl, 16 Miami, 15 Orl, 28 Phily. Sloan the highest was 1 game was 10 all the rest is about 4 points. In close games it matters! It’s not fair to the other players working their asses off on the court that he doesn’t surround them with better rotation players. Is Kevin Jones really better than… Read more »
Would they really fire Scott midseason? I just don’t think they would.
I’m kind of getting tired of losing as well. But just like I can’t give up on Thompson just yet, I don’t think it is fair to give up on Scott just yet.
Actually my biggest criticism of Scott is he’s playing CJ too much the last 2 games. CJ seems to have taken a serious step back on D this week and he’s turning it over. I hope there’s a reason Casspi is riding the bench because to me he has a more limited but better ll around game
Yeah, the Pargo and Casspi benchings are confusing. I thought they had the stomach flu…or the end of the world only applied to Casspi’s and Pargo’s…is Jannergo playing?
Kevin I agree. I just think that if Scott was coaching in win now mode he could win thirty with no improvement. Play andy and KI 40 in winnable games and take them out sooner when the game is out of reach. Let Dion play even when he’s not going 100%. Those adjustments and others could be made, but I’m glad they are not, is my point. So I think me and you are on the same page but I do believe there are some who criticize Scott without realizing that he’s fully aware that some of his decisions are… Read more »
I do think they will win 25 games. But my point is that is what scott will be judged by. He will be judged by whether Dion’s shot selection improves. By whether Tristan turns into a great defensive player. By whether Zeller’s confidence and aggressiveness improve. Whether the young guys are listening to him or have taken the game for granted. If they trade Andy I expect to win 18. Otherwise 25-30. But if he wins 30 and Dion begins to resemble larry hughes then fire him. If he begins to resemble Harden but we win 20 i sy keep… Read more »
rodney mac,
Basically I agree with you, with a significant exception. If Waiters shot selection improves, and Tristan continues to grow on defense, and Tyler’s confidence and aggressiveness improve; then Cleveland will win 25 games. And then my referendum will say “Keep Scott”.
I think you are mis-using your last point. If none of those things happen, the Cavs won’t win 30 games. And no one will need to support him. If all those things happen, they will win 25 games, and everyone will be content.
I love Steve van Gundy but think that any talk about Byron getting fired this year is premature. At this point next year if they aren’t above 500 then lets talk. I find it odd that no one else has noticed but Byron Scott’s objective this year is not to win games. Which can clearly be seen by his rotations and how quickly he’ll bench Dion after a dumb mistake. His objective is to develop players. This sometimes comes at the expense of winning in the short term to win in the long term. Its not tanking either though. Its… Read more »
rodney mac,
I am literally asking for 25 wins this season.
If the Cavs win 19 games, will you really say, “I think the team is on the right track.”? A little improvement is completely worth expecting over the post-Christmas season.
Rich, saying that as a Rookie, Durant could only shoot, invalidates your entire argument. In 35 minutes he averaged 20/2.4/4.4 1 Block 1 Steal, with a very low foul rate, and shot 87% from the line, and played 80 games. It’s pretty on par with Kyrie’s rookie season. I also LOATHE Stan Van Gundy. I’d rather pick a coach like we draft: young guy with a good work ethic and a lot of upside… Previews to come.
Byron Scott has a gift with guards, and has coached Kyrie into a great up-and-coming player. He also got his “jackpot” prize in Dion Waiters. You can’t fire the guy who is in control of those two things just yet. Scott has a good plan, he just doesn’t know how to implement; the Cavs should consider hiring a flashy coordinator, offense or defense. Thibodeau was a master for the Celtics as D-coordinator — not to say another Thibodeau is out there, but if Scott isn’t finding ways to play with all his toys together, maybe a hire like this could… Read more »
Lately I have been thinking about the fine line between “patience” and “excuses”, primarily as it relates to myself. I definitely think patience is warranted, but I am starting to ask “how much longer?”
I’m excited for the Stan Van Gundy era.
Kevin, we’re on the same page a lot these days. Byron’s odd rotations – most notably Kyrie’s continued absence at the start of the 4th no matter the situation – his “insistence” on defense that never shines through in the games, and obviously the 5 win record has tested my patience with the man. He seems to say all the right things in post game and shoot around interviews, but the results just aren’t there. Did I expect Cleveland to compete for the 8th seed? No. Do I expect them to be able to defeat a Toronto team, at home,… Read more »
Eh, I don’t agree with that Tom. Kyrie, in his one full season, easily surpassed what Durant did in his rookie year, looking like a far more polished, well-rounded player (Durant could basically do nothing other than shoot, and not at a particularly high percentage). Now, I don’t know if Kyrie will ever be as good as Durant is now, but based on JUST the early parts of their respective careers, Kyrie has been better than Durant was. And this article is basically me. If they don’t show marked improvement the second half of the season, then I’ll be open… Read more »
The Cavs don’t have as much talent as OKC did at that juncture. Maybe that’s hindsight with Westbrook, but by every conceivable metric/eye test, Kevin Durant was always destined to become an MVP-like superstar, it was only a matter of time. Kyrie’s place in the pantheon of greatness isn’t as guaranteed as Durant. For this, I think B Scott gets more time before he becomes the focus of our disappointment. I think we should podcast on Byron’s leash.
Tom Pestak, DO you believe the thing about talent? The Thunders top-three minutes earners by far were Durant, Westbrook, Green. After that it is Collison, who is less than 2012- 2013 Varejao, right? Then 2008 – 2009 OKC is (by most minutes played): Earl Watson, Kyle Weaver, Nenad Krstic, Desmond Mason, Chris Wilcox (now you’re at 719 minutes). That doesn’t seem very good. Durant was the only player with a PER above 15.2. Weaver, Watson and Mason had PER’s between 10.2 and 7.1. That team sounds morbid…if they won 20 of their final 50, it sounds like a team where… Read more »