Reading the Tea Leaves.
2013-01-07
Claire Danes aka Carrie Mathison w "Homeland" (Fot. Kent Smith/Copyright: Showtime)
So the hot rumor on Cleveland sports talk radio this morning is that the Cavs are trading Anderson Varejao within the next 24-48 hours. According the Really Big Show, the rationale is that Minnesota has a newly renewed sense of urgency given that Kevin Love is out 5-6 weeks with his latest hand fracture (wish I could tell you what time to look on the podcast, but it was brief). Normally, I’d just read this as chatter, but the Carrie Mathison in me thinks there might be more to this, for the following reasons.
- The Kevin Love injury.
- Tristan Thompson has blossomed during Andy’s most recent absence, thus making the prospect of trading Andy more palatable..
- Samardo Samuels was waived yesterday. His contract was guaranteed after January 10th. Could the Cavs be clearing a roster spot?
- Anderson Varejao has not played for 7 games, a very long time to sit for a knee bruise. Could the Cavs be shelving him so that he does not get hurt before they can trade him?
- Daniel Gibson, in similar fashion to Samardo Samuels, has a contract that becomes fully guaranteed January 10th. He is scheduled to make $4.79 million this year, of which $2.49 million is guaranteed. This means that any team that trades for him can then waive him and save $2.3 million of their 2012-2013 salary cap, as long as they do it before the 10th. Plus, the Cavs have already paid a good portion of the guaranteed contract. Additionally, he has not played since his concussion. According to Mary Schmitt Boyer, he’s out tonight: “Just got out of shootaround at the United Center. Daniel Gibson is here but will not playing.”
- Luke Walton is scheduled as out tonight in order to take care of a “personal matter.” Could this be to take care of things before he gets shipped, especially because the Cavs are about to start a road trip? Might he be looking for an apartment in Minneapolis?
- According to Yahoo.com, Omri Casspi has requested a trade from the Cavs. According to the Plain Dealer, Casspi has no comment on the matter.
Added all up, it’s either a lot of chatter, or a perfect storm of trade winds. Andy may sit or play tonight. The Cavs might want to protect him, or show a prospective team that he’s healthy… We’ll know whether this was all rumor or prescience in 3 days. Enjoy the trade machine, my friends.
Isn’t Al Harrington a little past his prime?
I like Demarre Carroll, Dorrell Wright, Al Harrington, and Corey Brewer from that group, in that order.
Wow – buddinger or bust from that group of soon to be overpaid Vets. (I’d take Iggy near max if the last 2 years weren’t guaranteed)
Sooner or later, NBA trades are a game of chicken. It’s interesting that Hollinger seems to be influencing Memphis already. He has to be a voice behind the move to dump Gay, an inefficient player who has a very large contract. At some point someone is going to have to blink and be willing to give up something they don’t necessarily want to give up. I think everyone now is waiting for the first person to blink. Tom: Lots of small forwards available in 2013: Iggy, Corey Brewer, Demarre Carrol, Dorell Wright, Chris Copeland, Marvin Williams, Josh Smith, Korver, Francisco… Read more »
@grover – nothing like a entire arena Luuuuuuuuuuuuk-ing. As far as acquiring players through trades or FA – I think the Cavs are in an interesting situation right now where they already have 2 high usage shot creators. That’s a nice start, as the brunt of the LeBron-era Cavs FO were hell bent on finding a second high usage shot creators. Jeff McGinnis, Larry Hughes, and Mo Williams were the results. If Waiters can be better than the 1st 2 it means the Cavs can look more towards exceptional role players that can’t score on their own. Think of the… Read more »
Nate,
Your trade gets rid of two contracts that the T-Wolves could dump next year in Roy and Stiemsma. Ultimately they are in the same salary pickle and may alienate their fan base while not adding players that make them any better. I’m not sure I’d give up Love for Andy and Waiters if I was Minnesota. That is especially true since they already have several Waiters like players in Shved, Barea and Ridenour.
@Tom- I overlooked the Luke karma. So there’s that. Which is nice. I would love to get all jazzed up about a trade with Houston, who in theory has a lot of talent/picks they can part with, cap space, and looking for a guy to put them “over the top”….but I don’t see them making a play for Varejao- at least not for a price that we’l take- after just commtting so much money to Asik. I think Andy brings a bit more to the table than Asik does, but they would fill similar roles, and Asik is younger and… Read more »
JAG, very true. I think the better play is to try to get Love. http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=aob4ojn That move combined with a draft pick would make Minnesota think.
Pekovic is likely to make more than Andy as a RFA next year. It will take a multiple year contract to re-sign him also. Add in the possibility of the Cavs having to take on DW and the cavs would really have a salary dilemma in a couple of years when Irving, TT and DW were all RFA’s at the same time and they are already paying Pekovic big money. Kinda’ like OKC’s problem this year ecept instead of deciding between Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka and Harden the Cavs would be deciding who to pay out of a likely less talented… Read more »
Interesting take, grover. I tend to look at Pekovic’s salary implications, but you’re right. Talented BIG guys don’t grow on trees. So Kahn probably wants to package D-Will, Roy, and either Barea or Ridnour. Dumping Stiemsma wouldn’t hurt either. Getting enough money to re-sign Pekovic and stay under the tax next year would make him very happy. However, I’m not sure this is possible. Both teams would have to make sacrifices in a Minnesota/Cleveland trade.
A more interesting trading partner might be Houston who has a LOT of young, big talent, and some cap space, though few draft picks.
grover – if the Cavs get Luke Ridnour I will be ecstatic. It will mean the Cavs are one step closer to having employed every single guy named ‘Luke’ to ever play in the NBA with the exception of some Australian named Luke Schenscher, Luke Babbitt (who’s from Cincinnati) and Tyler Zeller’s brother (whom I’m confident will join forces with Tyler)
http://www.basketball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?search=Luke
I live in Minnesota- don’t count on the Wolves trading Pekovic. Even when the Wolves are healthy, he is their only post presence. All their other bigs are perimeter players. I think what’s more likely is Williams and Luke Ridenour. Ridenour is redundant as it is with a healthy Rubio; even more so now with Shved developing so quickly. Not a terrible deal if we land those two and a draft pick for Andy. Ridenour is a worthwhile backup PG, and has excellent range. While I agree D-Will falls into that dreaded tweener purgatory, and will likely not be the… Read more »
No way Kings would trade Cousins for Verajoa. They are building for the future too.
My interesting trade idea, but it only counts if Minny is just trying to get under the tax line and accepting that they won’t compete without Love healthy: Kings get: – Varejao Cavs get: – Cousins – Pick up Brandon Roy’s contract TWolves get: – Gibson (waive his contract) – Johnson (waive his contract) Cavs get younger at the center position, while taking on Cousins (high risk/ high reward move). Sacramento gets a quality veteran big with elite rebounding skill, who could potentially help establish a better culture for their young talent going forward, and also don’t have to deal… Read more »
I don’t mind sitting till the deadline but I think we have to trade Andy this year. His stock is as high as it will ever be and he just does not stay healthy. That being said I really like Andy and he does a lot for this team when playing. But I believe the best thing for this team is too get as many assets as possible. I think right now GM’s are reluctant to add picks but that should change the worse this draft class looks.
I think I might be the only person that thinks this but howabout we just sit tight until the deadline and see how desperate other teams get.
boozer is a totally average defender…and compared to TT’s former offensive prowess vs ghost defense…it looked pretty darn sweet, pete
I’m sorry. As thrilled as I am with Tristan looking better and better by the day, Boozer is NOT a good defender.
I really think Grant has been gunning for Gay since the beginning of the season. No inside info on this…but it just makes sense. Gay is a high volume scorer…but wouldn’t need to be the high scorer on a cavs team that includes KI and TT. BTW, TT will average 15 to 17 a game the rest of the way this year whether we trade andy v or not. He really has developed an instinct for scoring off those rebound he gets on the offense end, and boozer is a good defender and he ripped him a new one tonight… Read more »
How about a deal for Parsons and Houston?
I’m going to trust the articles over some anonymous commentor. No offense.
I think we need another high volume player and parsons clearly isn’t that. But if you think that Dion can can become that second scorer than Parsons is better. Obviosly the Jazz would be getting the cavs first round pick which could easily be the best chance for the 1 pick as well as minnesota’s which isn’t bad.
Second hand through some one that works in the front office. Maybe he’ wrong but I doubt it
Spots the articles you sight are wrong. I have heard this from Chris Grant
rodney, not only are you wrong regarding the pick (see posts directly above mine) but your trade ideas are horrible
minnesota gets andy by only giving up barea and stiemsma? rockets get andy by only giving up parsons? do you hate andy? why would you want such an overpaid, inefficient scorer like gay on the cavs? utah gives up their big man of the future for two bench players? just beyond horrible ideas.
Don’t know where you’re getting your info, Rodney, but I’ve heard multiple times that if the Lakers pick is in the top 14, it goes to the Suns. Sam Amico spread some pretty bad information early on…
http://www.fearthesword.com/2012/12/17/3778914/the-mysterious-case-of-the-2013-draft-pick-in-the-ramon-sessions-trade
http://www.latimes.com/sports/lakersnow/la-sp-ln-lakers-2013-draft-picks-protected-20121210,0,5209218.story
If you have contradictory information, Rodney, I’d love to see it.
I would rather have Chandler Parsons than Rudy Gay and it isn’t even close. Also, Rodney: http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/46851/analyzing-the-lakers-injury-apocalypse
Zach Lowe explains the pick about halfway down. If the Lakers miss the playoffs, the pick goes to the Suns and we get the Heat’s pick.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=a8dnbd5
3 way with memphis and Houston.
Houston gets Andy.
Memphis gets Parsons and picks from the Cavs and Houston. Which even if Memphis doesn’t want to use are useful for future trades.
Houston Andy.
Cleveland gets Gay. Both teams save boatloads of cash as well
3 way with Utah.
Utah get JJ Barea, Omri and cavs 1st.
Minnesota gets Andy.
Cleveland gets Favors and a couple bad contracts from them.
Mo williams is hurt and they need a PG
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=bfdgaqo
The Lakers pick isn’t protected in anyway shape or form all of the reports are wrong
Ughhhhh Gallo is so inconsistent and always seems like he could care less what’s happening on the count. Please, no gallo
Gallo isn’t going anywhere. But I like kufos brewer
@ scuzz
If the lakers don’t make the playoffs, then we still get the heat’s first rounder. And I agree with Jon that it’s a win-win situation. Get a higher pick or see the lakers in the lottery.
That being said, I think the lakers will make the playoffs. How they get there is a different story. They always seem to get it done.
Any chance we could pry Gallo+Koufos out of Denver for Andy+something?
Gay is reportedly being shopped yet again
Bye Andy. Too bad you weren’t good enough when you were younger to help us and aren’t healthy enough now to help us win.
It’d take a 3way, but Gay is the Grizz’s #1 scorer at an inefficient 18ppg. I doubt he’s going anywhere without a serious scorer in return. Memphis isn’t doing anything other than trying to squeeze under the tax. If they get bumped early in the playoffs, look at them to re-tool, but otherwise, I think they’re in a hold and wait mode.
S87 – I doubt we could get Gay. The Grizz already have a loaded front court.
Trade for Dwight? ;)
I don’t mess around much with the trade machine…but is anyone still thinking about Rudy Gay? I don’t know how we would work that one out…multiple teams obviously…but he doesn’t seem to be a center piece for that griz team moving forward.
I want the Lakers draft pick, but it would also be hilarious if they missed the playoffs. For me it’s a win-win situation.
ESPN just reported that Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are both out indefinitely with injuries.
1) They would make a perfect trade partner for Varejao, if only they had something the Cavs would want.
2) I think that draft pick the Lakers would owe the Cavs is in jeopardy.
Derrick Williams – can’t get off the bench, can’t guard anyone, young and athletic. Sounds like the perfect Omri Casspi replacement
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=ban8cpq I think the trade would look a lot like this, but I think Cleveland would want to get a third team involved to avoid having Williams, TT, and Kyrie: 3 players in the top 4 from the same draft class, leading to a VERY expensive/difficult set of extensions and restricted free agencies in 2014/2015.
If there is any truth to this, Minnesota’s logic for dealing Pekovic is reasonable. He’s a restricted free agent this summer and he’s going to command a good payday the way he has played the past two years. They probably can’t afford to pay him, and so it makes more sense to trade him now to a team that can for a guy who can give them slightly better production.
I think the trade is ok as well. I don’t think we are getting Pekovic, Williams, AND a pick. It would be the first two. Honestly, Verajoa’s numbers look sexy as hell this season, but he has seem to dipped a bit on defense, and with the way TT is playing, I think we’d be better this year and in the future with Pekovic and Williams. Derrick still has a lot of unreached potential and could still end up going to his share of all star games. He just needs to find a role and stick to it with consistent… Read more »
http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=400278214 Check out the box score from Saturday. Pekovic 21&15. Williams, 18 points in 18 minutes…
If it does happen, I’m guessing it’s for Pekovic, Williams, and (hopefully) a draft pick. Pekovic gives you low post scoring and would help the Cavs stop getting overwhelmed by sheer size. Of course, they would lose rebounding in a big way. With Williams, you’re banking on his jump shot improving. He’s been better this year, so it’s possible. Still, could they play him at the 3? Can he defend other SFs? Overpower, yes. Defend, eh…
I think this trade would be OK. Not great, just OK. But you have to wonder if this is the best offer out there.
It does sort of feel like things have been “quiet…TOO quiet” lately. Maybe something (relatively) big is about to happen.
Interesting, before this came out I was just trying to do the math on the cavs waiving Samardo after Leuer was shipped off to D-League. And activating Andy days before he’s “ready” when all they are required is 60 minutes.
The thing is Cleveland sports radio is pretty terrible and they need to create content. Actually most sports radio is terrible. LA’s is just as bad, maybe worse.
January 10th is the day all NBA contracts become guaranteed for the season. As far as who we’re trading for, the usual suspects of Williams, Roy, Peckovich come to mind, for Minnesota. I think anyone in the league is possible. If there’s anything I’ve learned about Grant is that he’ll play it close to the vest for as long as possible, and try to get the most advantage possible. For this reason he tends to irritate other GMs because he is hard to bargain in good faith with. I’m betting that at the very least, Casspi and Gibson are gone… Read more »
I was wondering about when Gibby’s contract switched. The sentimental in me thinks it would be rough to lose Andy and Gibby in the same trade…but for some reason at this point in the season it doesn’t feel as bad. Is it TT’s sudden improvement? In any case, what the heck do we get back? Are there other teams involved in the rumor besides Minny to get a deal done?