Draft & Coach-Search Talk
2013-04-23First, a quick note regarding the coaching search. While Mike Brown is a fine coach, I hope the climax of this endeavor is not him returning. I have crossed-my-fingers hoping for a top-name in assistant coaching; once upon a time, Greg Popovich and Phil Jackson received their big break, right? We recently witnessed a Byron Scott-coached team repeat a miniature cycle similar to his prior two stints: All-Star point guard; quick rise to prominence; equally rapid plummet accompanied by whispers of locker-room dissent. Well Mike Brown, while also a former coach-of-the-year and NBA Finalist, lists on his resume two experiences of being run-out-of-town to appease a superstar. If hiring Brown, do we witness history repeat itself five years from now, with the Cavs panic-hiring an ex-Laker B.S. (Brian Shaw) in order to placate a potentially evasive superstar? A lot of hypothetical there, but I don’t care to explore that parallel universe. I’ve seen the prequel. So, hire Mike Malone, Brian Shaw, etc; I have cast my vote.
(Edit: According to ESPN, the Sunday night dinner meeting between Dan Gilbert, Mike Brown and Chris Grant “went well…(Brown) is the only coach they are currently pursuing.” So, that’s interesting.
This guy looks familiar to me, but I can't put my finger on where I've seen him before.
The other big storyline of the spring is the upcoming draft. Cleveland looks towards June 27th with the third-best lottery odds, as well as the 19th, 31st and 33rd picks. As an intro to the upcoming ten weeks, a perusal of their options is in order. Starting with the lottery pick…
Cleveland’s odds stack-up to a 96% chance of picking in the top-five, 47% likelihood of selecting top-three, with 16% of choosing at the top. There are basically only two options here, right?
- Pick a top prospect. My current “big board” goes: Noel, Porter, Oladipo, Bennett, McLemore. Hitting the fifty-fifty proposition of a first-three pick would be awesome.
- Trade for Al Horford. David Zavac discussed this last month at Fear the Sword. I thought his offer was steep, but if Atlanta wants to tear down and tank for a few years, Cleveland could package the fourth pick, Varejao and spare draft picks for the Hawks’ Center. Atlanta could parlay one top-five pick in 2013 and a high-lottery choice in the hugely-touted 2014 draft towards an exciting future. The Cavs pick up a 27-year old All-Star with a reasonable 3 years, $36 million on his contract.
For the other first-rounder, options appear to be:
- If the likely first scenario from above is taken, my preference is to not bring-on another rookie for next season. The team needs to keep bolstering the young talent pool, but a combined push towards adding experience is also in order. A Euro could be picked as a draft-and-stash.
- If the lottery-pick is traded, then selecting a 2013 – 2014 newcomer at #19 is a solid option. As a Euro looking to come to the NBA next season, I can envision talking myself into Sergey Karasev of Russia. A 19-year old small forward with sweet scoring and passing skills and an accomplished start to his teenaged Euro-career, he is vaguely reminiscent of Evan Fournier. Last year, I declared Fournier a late lottery pick, and based on early returns, that looks pretty solid.
- Trade the pick. In 2011, San Antonio looked to get younger, more athletic, and less expensive. Indiana possessed cap-space to burn and needed to get a tad more battle-tested. George Hill and Kawhi Leonard crossed paths and both teams met their goals. Last week, I mentioned OKC as potentially willing to roll-the-dice swapping a $4 million role player for a $1.5 million first-rounder, provided there is someone they really like. Over the course of this season, on a few occassions, I mentioned Portland as a team that should look to make a trade. They: are not a playoff team; have $45 million in annual salary commitments for the next two seasons; and dealt away a future first rounder. Of the ten Western Conference teams finishing ahead of them, six have definitely or arguably better young cores at their disposal. Is this incarnation of the Trail Blazers maxed-out as future first-round playoff fodder? Perhaps they should trade Wes Matthews & LaMarcus Aldridge, keep Damian Lillard and Nic Batum, tank for the 2014 draft and start building a contender for 2019. The Cavs are way under the cap and could take Matthews off their hands.
- Trade the lottery pick and nineteen to move up a slot or two.
Finally, the second rounders. Obviously combining picks and trading up, or Euro-stashing remain options, but my early preference with those picks is take two players, and let them hover between the D-League and end-of-the-bench (depending on injuries) for 2013 – 2014. Even while trading second rounders in 2011 and 2012, the team brought in a bevy of undrafted rookies. As of today, my preference is draft the lottery pick, trade #19, sign four reliable, veteran free-agents to fill roster spots one through twelve, and go into next season with the 13th, 14th, and 15th men as Kevin Jones, and the thirty-first and thirty-third picks. Of name’s currently slotted towards the early part of draftexpress’s mock second-round, I am interested in Erick Green, B.J. Young, Mike Muscala, Nate Wolters or Adreian Payne.
Well, there is some kick-off to the draft coverage. Last year, I was writing heavily about prospects throughout the season; right now, I am late to that game. Rectifying that serves as a high priority over the next two months, so check back often for in-depth coverage leading to draft day.
It looks like this front office does believe Mike Brown is a great fit at head coach. Perhaps they do feel they made a mistake in firing him after the LeBron James fiasco. Look, Mike Brown has his criticisms, and justly, for his lack of offensive imagination. With that said, he did bring LeBron James and co. (with a TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE supporting cast) to the NBA Finals and Eastern Conference Finals. We are clearly on our way to building a much better/deeper team. While we lack the best player on the planet, our collection of young players, a budding superstar,… Read more »
http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/2013/04/nba-news-cleveland-cavaliers-mike-brown-head-coac/
Seriously though, these anonymous sources didn’t even claim that brown was the only target, they just said they weren’t aware of any other targets at the time, while including that Brown hasn’t recieved an offer. Why the Hell would Grant or Gilbert tell anyone who they were planning on contacting before they actually contacted them?!?! And why the hell are you surprised that gilbert, and yes, GRANT, had dinner with the most accomplished available coach willing to meet with them? Seriously, think before you freak, and stop automatically assuming the worst.
For the people who dislike brown. The kids got to learn defense and I believe he’s the best on the market unless you go into college ranks?? Which there isn’t much hope there either.
Vesus, maybe you just weren’t aware that the plan included something along the lines of “After being terrible for 3 years, it might be hard for the head coach to get through to the players, especially if there is no discernible improvement by the end of year 3. If this fear seems verified, it would be in the best interest of the team going forward to get a new coach, preferably the best one available, regardless of personal issues, and Gilbert and Grant will work alongside each other in performing this. Perhaps if some of those possible candidates are assistants… Read more »
Totally agree with Pesrak here. Furthermore, there is a decided lack of real evidence that Gilbert has been some kind of out-of-control meddlesome owner. He actually seems fairly deliberate…
And I agree with Tom 100%. Give me an invested, emotional, willing owner over some frugal bottom line guy or some idiot who signs any check his GM wants him to. Fact of the matter is, most horrendous contracts in the NBA get signed because the owner gives the GM complete control of basketball operations, and the GM starts to worry about his job security and what one bad year can do to it, and Boom, you have the Gilbert Arenases of the world signing max deals because the GM was freaking out and trying to save his own ass.… Read more »
KyrieSwIrving said: “I’m definitely glad that he’s more worried about getting the team to contention than about saving face.”
That’s exactly how I feel. If he does bring MB back it’s going to be like throwing raw meat to wolves. I’ll take an owner that wants to win and doesn’t care about how he is perceived.
@ Nate
The Explanation of “what a pretty good GM … would interview only one guy” is b/c that one guy is a close buddy that just so happened went to the same school and was sorry to see him go.
Yes? Pau to me is an effective post scorer who with the right change of scenary is capable of putting up 17 and 9 and drawing double teams. If we trade Tyler, the 19, and a protected future pick for that I’m all in.
So what you guys are saying is “let’s go find the next Larry Hughes, Ira ‘what’s his name’ and a few good role players”?
@ Nate
There WAS a plan in place. But the owner who has no basketball experience is now inexplicably making the decisions. And anyone who disagrees, explain why a pretty good GM like Grant wouldn’t want to interview more than one guy for the coaching job.. Gilbert is running the team now and that can only be a bad thing.
@Vesus – so because he had dinner with Mike Brown he’s “running the team”? That’s quite a conclusion. Is Chris Grant even running the team? If he was there is no way Casspi would never have played. That whole thing just made him look bad. Byron Scott had coaching autonomy, Chris Grant had FA/Draft autonomy. Two coaching changes and 1 GM change (where the GM was groomed for the position) in 7 some odd years doesn’t seem like some panic induced emotional puppet-mastering from the owner. And yet people on here are comparing the Cavs to the Browns. Total lack… Read more »
@ Joey Joe – the proposed trade you mentioned for Pau is god awful. Not that Gasol would be awful for us, but because he is an over-the-hill, injury riddled, unathletic big man that has stunk it up since winning a ring with Kobe. I’d be against trading only the #19 overall pick and Gee for Gasol, because unless I’m wrong, his contract would eat up a lot of our cap space for years to come.
I really do not feel he would be a good fit on a young team. Just my opinion though.
Eh, Tom. Just cause he’s rich and not afraid to spend money doesn’t mean I can’t point out mistakes he’s making.
As for the assistants in the playoffs, that’s totally true. I just would like some acknowledgement and sense that there is a plan in place and it’s not all Danny G flying by the seat of his pants. I feel I am owed that for the no money I spent on the team this year.
Another person pointed it out, but I’ll reiterate. A lot of the up-and-coming assistants we all seem to want are still trying to help their playoff teams compete. If they were assistants on non-playoff teams we likely wouldn’t want them! Patience guys, stop jumping to conclusions. Especially when reading between the lines when the lines are nothing but partial information from anonymous “sources” like the ones who also claimed no one wants to trade with Chris Grant anymore right before he robbed Memphis.
@ Joey Joe – You really want to give up young talent, draft picks and cap space for a 33 year old Pau Gasol (who seems to be almost as injury prone these days as AV)?
@ Tom – Notice I didn’t say those were bad things. To your point, he’s never been afraid to write the checks. He’s maddening at times with his apparent overreactions and overcorrections, but he runs the team like a genuine fan. Nobody who doesn’t really care would have written the infamous comic sans open letter. He was probably pissed off that Byron ended the year the way he did and decided it was time to move on. Dan Gilbert (like Mark Cuban and Jim Buss) will do whatever it takes to try and win. The Clevelander in me just wishes… Read more »
Point of parliamentary procedure!
Yes, I’m also upset at the “Brown is the only coach we’ve talked to” comment, as I don’t want him back. I don’t hate him, don’t think he’s a terrible coach….I just don’t want him back. I’m in the “let’s give a top assistant a shot” club.
But….all of those top assistants are in the playoffs right now. It stands to reason we’re not going to be making much progress with any of them until they start getting eliminated. So I think it’s a bit early to be in panic-mode on the coaching search front.
@grover – it’s never too early to be in panic-mode. C’mon
On the Horford potential trade. I like Horford a lot, However when I heard him on Scott Van Pelt he made the comment that he wanted to get back to playing his natural position of PF. I think this could be a problem because if he doesn’t want to guard the Howards, Drummonds, and Bynums of the NBA then we’d need to either teach Tristan ow to grow a few inches or really change courses on our front line. My point is I think Horford wants to be playing alongside a big guy and playing the high post, so he… Read more »
@Tom – I’ll take effective and frugal over rich and capricious
@Nate – you win the Phoenix Suns.
Hasn’t being haphazard, overly emotional and meddlesome been the trademark of Gilbert from day one? Outside of Mark Cuban, and maybe Jim Buss I don’t know if there’s been a more polarizing owner in the NBA in recent memory.
@EvilGenius – You mean NBA Champion Mark Cuban.
I was just thinking about this, and it isn’t something I’d really want to do, but I realized that if the Cavs so desired, they could probably start next season with a Gasol+Bynum front court.
My dislike for Brown has nothing to do with LeBron. He’s not coming back. Nothing I say is with the thought of trying to entice him. Mike Brown is a bad coach for this team for all sorts of other reasons that having nothing to do with LeBron James returning or not returning.
Tom,
You make some very good points, I pretty much enjoy reading everything you write.
It’s another case of us being amateur documentarians: we have a really incomplete picture of everything going on with the team, and for me at least, that’s maddening. Are the Cavs just slow getting into their coaching search? Are they taking their time and compiling a list? (I made one for you Dan Gilbert!) One thing is sure, it ALWAYS behooves you as an organization to interview multiple candidates for a job. Not only do you get a better idea of what different people’s skill sets are, and how they present themselves, but you get to hear their ideas, and… Read more »
@Nate – he also writes fat checks. I say count our blessings.
Nate Smith Said: I’m getting the sense that Dan Gilbert is haphazard, overly emotional, and meddlesome. It’s begining to trouble me. He’s an emotional guy. How is he overly-emotional? Don’t you want your owner emotionally invested (the way fans are) with a sports franchise? Gilbert was taking LOSSES when the Cavs were selling out 45+ games a season. Kyrie Irving is here because of Dan Gilbert – not because the Cavs #tankstrong campaign. He doesn’t run his team in a cold/calculated Sarver (good-bye Joe Johnson and a free championship) way. But rest assured, if the Cavs ever get back to… Read more »
I don’t think @ Mike is too far off base. If Gilbert is hellbent on overcorrecting the defensive approach of this team by bringing back Mike Brown, it wouldn’t be the worst idea to secure Mark Price as an offensive coach to help KI, Dion and the guards, and Big Z to continue to help coach the big men.
Yup that’s my point. The argument a lot of people have against Brown (and I agree with) is that he is not the man to lead us to the championship, he already failed at that with the best player in the world on his teams. I’m saying the argument for him is that he can teach these guys some D, get us into the playoffs and winning as many games as possible as soon as possible. With a little perspective (that I sure hope grant and gilbert have) you can also realize that 22 yos usually aren’t ready to win… Read more »
has* not is. Yikes!
Ctown – It’s almost impossible to look “down the road” 4-5 years. We have no idea if Wiggins, or any other rookie for that matter, will take hold of the league. We don’t know if Kyrie will stay, if Dion will mature, etc. etc. etc. You don’t hire coaches with the thought of what the move is in 5 years. The NBA is a reactionary league. Teams react to what other teams do. Unlike the NFL, where the trading of Revis, for example, means nothing to how New England puts together their team, or how the Carolina Panthers will act… Read more »
Only current candidate Mike Brown?
Well, it would be much more disappointing if he was already offered the job. Which would be a shame, because you can’t really interview the other top candidates: Mike Malone and Brian Shaw are still assistant coaching their playoff teams, among others.
what i have in mind is a coaching team with Mark price running offenses and brown on the defensive end Z as the big men coach and get a assistant coach from a winning team to be our head coach
I am not in favor of bringing Mike Brown back in general and I don’t think he is the man that will lead us to a title. However, I think you could make an argument for it. When you need to develop 19 year olds into a championship level team, several things need to happen and it’s possible that one coach is not the man for all of the jobs. The first few years players need to learn how to be professionals. The nba is a lot different from hs and college and guys need to learn how to put… Read more »
I’m losing a measure of optimism about our coaching search. Hopefully all this means is that Mike Brown is currently the only coach we have pursued, not that he WILL be the only coach that we pursue. I’ll be honest, if it didn’t make us look so dang stupid, I wouldn’t even hate the idea of bringing Brown back. Isn’t bringing back a fired head coach in 3 years or less unprecedented? And as much as I hate to admit it, a small part of me hates the fact that hiring Brown would probably seal our fate in LeBron not… Read more »
If we don’t land Noel, I’m 100% for trading for Horford. I think if the Cavs can either land a big man with the first pick (via draft or trade), then 2 guys come to my mind as being really interesting with the Lakers pick: Livio Jean-Charles (was low on the radar until his explosion a few days ago at the Nike Hoops Summit) or Cavs-blogs-favorite Giannis Adetokounbo. Both guys are long, tall athletes that will require seasoning but hold some crazy potential. I’m also interested in Rudy Gobert, Dario Saric, and Karasev. Basically, there’s a wealth of options for… Read more »
Kevin – I small edit to point 5 (and an addition of points 6 and 7):
5. Offer Mike Brown the job
6. Mike Brown turns down the job and accepts Sixers job.
7. Re-hire Byron Scott.
Let’s criticize Gilbert and jump to conclusions because he’s talking to Mike Brown. We have no idea what the terms would be if he did come back. They might require him to hire an offensive assistant. We just don’t know, so it really isn’t fair to lambaste Gilbert.
Question is, how great will Brown’s defensive schemes look like when he has Alonzo Gee as his best perimeter defender? Gilbert the egotistical jackass will apparently do whatever it takes to make sure Lebron isn’t walking through that door.
Is there anyone that will be satisfied with the outcome of:
1. Fire Mike Brown to persuade Lebron to stay
2. Lebron leaves
3. Three years later, fire the other coach
4. Embark on an exhausting one-coach search
5. Bring Mike Brown back
Isn’t the team painting a picture of themselves as having mismanaged this situation?
@Kevin – I think when the Cavs put all their eggs in the LeBron basket (what else could they do?) and the Decision happened, followed by the Letter, the painting was finished. I don’t know about LeBron, but I know his Mom certainly wanted Mike Brown fired after the Orlando series. The Cavs would not fire him. Ferry would not fire Mike Brown regardless of what LeBron wanted in June 2010. Most concluded that Gilbert thought a new coach might convince LeBron to stay. MB wouldn’t give the Cavs an extension to decide whether or not to extend his contract.… Read more »
Let’s not overlook the following irony that is happening right now within our own small circles. -We are upset that Mike Brown might be the next head coach because it will be embarrassing or look bad to the rest of the world. Some of us have alluded to this, others have outright said it. -Many of us blame Gilbert for being too emotional in his decisions. -We got into this situation in the first place because the only directive was “LeBron must be here” -Now we are worried that the following could prevent LeBron from coming back: sucking too much… Read more »
Thanks $. Didn’t see the part about Jackson earlier.
heres the link Evil:
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/9200329/meeting-cleveland-cavaliers-owner-dan-gilbert-mike-brown-went-well-sources-say
“Cleveland also reached out to Phil Jackson over the weekend, but Jackson’s representatives told the team that Jackson has no interest in the Cavs’ coaching job, sources said”
“While Cleveland has not yet offered Brown the job, he is the only coach they are currently pursuing, according to sources. They have not reached out to anyone else, besides Jackson.”
@ Vesus, was the ESPN report on MB being the only candidate on-line? Link?
If Cavs beat the odds and wind up with #1, they’d almost have to take Noel (who probably isn’t playing until at least the all-star break next year). In that event, I’d still want to see them keep the #19 pick and use it on someone who can play.
Alternately, if they did somehow get #1, would it make more sense to field offers for it and maybe get a lower first rounder this year and an extra first rounder in next years stacked draft?
Good article Kevin. Thanks for checking out the possibilities.
If the draft was like the last 2 years, we’ll all be surprised.
Sounds like Phil Jackson has no interest in the Cavs job. Mike Brown round 2 here we go…
@ Kevin
I guess what I’m saying is that those 2nd rounders may better serve the Cavs as part of a package with #19 to trade up and get someone that is less of a project and will see significant playing time.
@ Gordon
I agree that the Cavs shouldn’t have 4 rookies for next season. I think it’s unlikely. If they do draft Porter with their pick, I’d imagine (or hope) they would go after Gobert or Dieng. Either one could become the shot blocker/rim protector they need. They might have to trade up from 19 to land one of them. IF they do have a 2nd round pick left over, another wing …. C.J. Leslie, DeShuan Thomas… or a stash pick would make sense. Nogueira maybe?
Cody and Gordon,
If not the 31st and 33rd picks, then who are the 14th and 15th persons on the roster? Do they end up being undrafted rookies?
Vesus,
If Brown is the only person on the teams radar, that is disappointing.
Per ESPN, Mike Brown is now the “only coach being pursued” by the Cavaliers.
Great search, huh? Keep telling yourselves that Dan Gilbert isn’t going over Grant’s head on this one.
I don’t see Cavs trading Varejao, especially if Mike Brown is brought back.
Horford would be a nice acquisition, but I’m not sure that Atlanta wants to tear it down. In fact, to a degree, they’ve already done so. They moved Marvin Williams and Joe Johnson. Odds are that Josh Smith isn’t resigning. Their guaranteed money for next season is 18.5 mil. Seems pretty torn as is.
Along with the two second rounders* is what I meant at the end of my post.
I’m torn on the Horford trade, and I think it is because I am always overly optimistic. If AV plays out his contract healthy, he’s a 13-15 ppg, 12-15 rpg player – very similar to Horford (more rebounds, fewer points). Keeping AV at a team friendly contract and the top 3-5 pick could be more beneficial. Otto Porter + AV has more upside than Al Horford, IMO. But, then again, a core of Irving-Waiters-Horford-TT and a guy like Karasev is a heck of a foundation and less risky than keeping the top 3-5 pick (who could bust). I think my… Read more »