30 Years Under the Wheel: An Oral History Pt.1 (1985-95)
2014-01-09
[Note: In the waning days of 2013, Grantland’s Zach Lowe delivered mankind The Wheel. Well, a discussion of it, anyway. The Wheel is the first replacement to the NBA’s draft lottery system that the league has been using since 1985 to receive, as Lowe says, high level support. The basics are simple: over a 30-year span, every team will receive each of the 30 picks in the first round once and only once. The article goes into more depth, so read it if you haven’t already. Since Lowe’s article, several “fixes” to the NBA’s tanking “problem” have been bandied about (including Lowe and Bill Simmons, who discuss tweaks to The Wheel on the B.S. Report). I have my tweaks. You probably have yours. But, instead of more of the same, I thought it would be fun — however terribly unscientific — to look at what the Cavs drafts would have been like had the league instituted The Wheel in 1985 instead of the lottery. I took the Cavs’ actual 1985 draft pick (number nine) and then let The Wheel take it from there, using the players actually chosen in the slots where the Cavs would be picking. Just like the real Cavs, the Bizarro Cavs of Wheel World had their ups and downs. Curious who you’d have spent your days rooting for? Take a look, true believers…]
Cleveland kicked off its new era choosing hometown boy Charles Oakley at number nine. Oak, while never an all-star caliber player, provided defense, rebounding and toughness. Scoring was addressed the following year when the Cavs, with the number four overall selection, took “The Rifleman,” Chuck Person. The 27th pick in 1987 yielded only Nate Blackwell, whose rookie season in the league proved to be his last. But the Cavs were able to find something in the lower part of the first round the next year, drafting combo guard Brian Shaw out of UC-Santa Barbara with the 24th pick. Oakley’s toughness rubbed off on his teammates; the Cavs were Oakley’s team. By 1990-91, Person’s scoring was down slightly, but he was still firing it in at an 18.4 PPG clip, Shaw, building on a solid rookie year, put up nearly 14/8 in his second go-around, and Oak was Oak, going for 11.2 points and 12.1 rebounds a game. The Cavs, though, while balanced, continued to just miss out on the playoffs, as the team whiffed on the 13th and 12th picks in back-to-back drafts, trying to help Oakley up front with PF Michael Smith and PF/C Alec Kessler, both of whom were not long for the league.
But the organization and its fans knew that the number one pick was coming. Ever since the Wheel was announced, Cavs fans circled June 1991 on their calendars. Oakley, Person and Shaw were good players, but 1991 was the Cavs’ one chance in this 30 year cycle to get their Jordan, their Bird, their Magic. Who they got was Larry Johnson, the 6-6, 250 pound jackhammer of a power forward out of UNLV. The Cavs were not a tall team, starting and ending games with 6-0 Mark Price (acquired a few years back in a trade with the Dallas Mavericks), the 6-6 Shaw, 6-8 Person, 6-6 Johnson and relying on the 6-8 Oakley or surprising rookie center, 6-10 Sean Rooks (13.5PTS/7.4REB as a rookie) to battle the Olajuwons, the Robinsons… hell, even the Bill Cartwrights of the league. But the team was fast. It rained three-point shots down on their opponents, allowing Johnson to explode through the space created by the defense’s attention to the perimeter. In 1992-93, the Cavs rode an all-star season from Johnson to their first playoff appearance since 1978.
14 years without a trip to the post-season and the Cavs made it all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals before getting bounced by Jordan’s Bulls. (Oh, yeah, Jordan entered the league the year before the institution of the Wheel. In that way, for all the equality professed by supporters of The Wheel, nothing was ever really and truly equitable.)
In 1993-94, Johnson hurt his back and ended up playing in only 51 games. This refocused attention on some of the Cavs aging and less dynamic pieces. Person’s scoring had dropped off precipitously (just 11.6 PPG in 93-94) and Shaw, while a player that the Cavs GM, Hugh Vestenberg, could see starting for a championship team was not, himself alone, a champion. Likewise, the front office decided that Oakley, while beloved by the people, was too much like the people, too workman-like, to ever take the team over the hump. So, they would blow it all up and find the pieces to fit around their new star, Johnson, who would keep this franchise afloat for the next decade. Rooks was a nice piece next to Johnson, after all (though his production was already in decline and would never again match that of his rookie year), and the Cavs had some decent selections coming up on The Wheel.
Vestenberg and the Cavs decided that the best way to keep Johnson near his all-star form was to flood the team with bigs. This, Coach Mike Dunleavy reasoned as the team took 6-10 center, Acie Earl, at 19 in 1993 and 6-11 center Eric Mobley at 18 in 1994, sometimes playing Rooks at the four and allowing Johnson to play further away from the basket where his troublesome back would take less of a pounding. Johnson was an all-star again in 1994-95, averaging 18.8 points and 7.2 rebounds, a noticeable drop from the 22.1/10.5 he posted in 92-93, but the team’s guard play was uninspiring and Dunleavy relied on defense and his bevy of centers to keep the scores low and, thus, keep them close.
But the Cavs got a bit more interesting after the 1995 draft when, with the 7th pick, they selected 5-10 point guard, Damon Stoudamire, out of Arizona.
Could a Cavs team with Stoudamire and Johnson at its core compete in the late-90s Eastern Conference? Or would the fact that the team’s “core” was rounded out by Rooks, Earl and Mobley, three mid-to-late round selections the previous years, be too little support to their talented one-two punch of Grandmama and Mighty Mouse?
Well, for that, true believers, and for the next decade and a half of Cavs revisionist history, you’ll have to wait until Part 2.
Ya not all of them. But it seems impossible to get them all wrong. There is no way they don’t have Carter or Jamison unless they fell in love with a 7foot sweet shooting Euro. There is no way they don’t draft the Greatest player ever drafted #1. Odds are they would of Drafted a slipping Tracey Mcgrady. Sure maybe they miss on Butler and Jefferson. Maybe they miss on Nash/Kobe/Big Z/Jermaine O’Neal/Peja but its also a pretty good chance they get one of them. There is no way they miss on Gallinari/Eric Gordon/Love in 2008. And I doubt that… Read more »
Ok then, so you’re assuming that their GM would have had the good luck to choose all of the “right” players that we know would have been good picks with years of hindsight? Seems like a stretch to me; no GM gets it right that consistently.
Ross I used the wheel the NBA is supposedly considering. It gives a top 6 every 5 years. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/86940/the-nbas-possible-solution-for-tanking-good-bye-to-the-lottery-hello-to-the-wheel The team with the 1997 4 th pick would of been able to acquire this roster.
Rodney, I don’t think you completely understand the wheel concept. No team would have that many high picks in consecutive years. Some of those years, they would have been picking in the late 1st round or mid 1st round. How do you have them picking in the top 15 picks every single year?
*how not who in first line of 2nd paragraph. That is a pretty insane fluke. but its real I had no idea I had found such a outlier when I started typing that. That franchise if they didn’t repeatedly blow it like worse than Kahn style would have one at least 1 title there is no way someone could miss that many times. If the GM was good it could be the greatest team in NBA history. If the GM was great it would be the greatest team in the history of sports. I mean its really not that much… Read more »
Jack the Wheel would lead to an insanely unbalanced league because the wheel isn’t equal at all. The wheel theory is supposed to make it equal giving every team an equal opportunity but does no such thing because NBA draft classes vary so much in quality. Just some examples of teams that very possibly could have formed if the wheel had been in effect for a while now. Team X draft 4st in 1998 and Has a choice of Antwan Jamieson (4) Vince Carter (5) and Dirk (9), 3 years later @13 in 2001 they get Richard Jefferson (13), Then… Read more »
My idea has three parts to it (I don’t really like the wheel and the auction is intriguing but seems complicated): 1. Place a hard cap like Cory mentioned and add a sweetener for the players union so they somehow approve of it (maybe combine all the fine money each year and spread it out throughout the players’ paychecks? Really anything to convince the players would do). 2. Make the lottery wide open. Instead of teams only having a chance at a pick around their original spot or the top three, give all non-playoff teams a shot at any pick… Read more »
Also, if there is some explanation out there for how The Wheel deals with expansion and I missed it – my apologies.
As cool an idea as an oral history of the wheel is, and as much as I like the comments – what about the idea the wheel is broken? Specifically, in 1985 there were 24 NBA teams. How does the wheel integrate hypothetical expansion teams? If 20th century pro sports taught us anything, it is no matter how improbable hypothetical expansion may seem on any given day, it is inevitable until the end of either pro sports or the world – whichever comes first.
Looking forward to part 2.
The auction idea is a good one. I can see various versions of it coming about. Maybe one of the simplest would be that teams under the salary cap can ‘bid’ on the top players based on the salary cap dollars they have. Only the top 10 players in a draft are ‘acutioned’ this way. Once the acutioned off players are removed from the board, then the above ADs are allocated or at that point in time a wheel or lottery is done. this approach obviously benefits teams that stay under the cap first and then bad teams second. Fundamentally… Read more »
Good call David
Corey I also think that this would improve the overall NBA product through trades would become more frequent and easier. Imagine earlier this year Houston could have had an actual auction for Omer Asik and teams wouldn’t have to be bad to get good.
Tanking has been around forever. It’s not new and it’s not isolated to the NBA. The reason it’s an issue now, is because the worldwide fluff machine needs content. There’s much more in-depth coverage of everything, if they don’t have a story, they’ll make one. These anti-tanking ideas are ridiculous. How about a hard salary cap so that big market clubs don’t have an INSANE advantage. The lottery is the only way for small market teams to build and they still lose their best players five to seven years later. I get that the Pacers did it without bottoming out.… Read more »
Also, bravo on that video, Robert. Though I liked Journey better back when they had that Filipino kid singing for them.
Wow, Nate. Hahaha, not what I was expecting at all. I’ll go with Rodney’s system over The Cones of Silvershire.
Wow, Rodney. I appreciate your ingenuity. I think your system isn’t quite robust enough, though. I prefer this system created by Tom Ziller at SBNation: The Cones of Silvershire.
If an auction type of thing did happen as suggested I think a good idea is the teams in order of record could nominate the players to be bid on, just like what happens in fantasy football auctions. It would add even more strategy, whether to nominate a player you like to get while you’ve got money left or to nom players you don’t like so other teams spend their money. It could be a very interesting system.
-I think The draft order could be determined by the league. They hire some scouts and try to get the best player 1st and once you get to players who are going under a certain price it becomes a silent auction just to speed things up. But for the top Players 30 teams at 30 podiums bidding to purchase the exclusive bargaining rights. It’d be great theatre. -Ya you’d probably still need a Ted Stepien rule. No more than 40 future Ad’s possibly? -You might be right on the Auction system needing a greater disparity in Ad’s for the best… Read more »
I really like that idea Rodney. I like the idea of bidding for players and trading ADs (or a portion of them) and it could remove the problem of bad drafts – for example the Cavs in my opinion would have just rolled over most ADs from last year, competed this year, and still had enough to make a run at a marquee player from this class. A couple of things that might need fine tuning: – I think that there should be a greater disparity in ADs between great and awful teams – Was there any reason you weren’t… Read more »
Sorry for the Grammar I was typing on a phone but I’ve been thinking of this Auction system for a while and really really think it’d be awesome. Maybe I’ll type it up and E-Mail to The Blog for a full exposé.
I propose they move to an Auction system. The NBa starts a new Currency I’ll call auction Dollars that I’ll call Ad’s from here out. Each team based on its Win Percentage% through 60 games is awarded a certain amount of Ad’s. The most you will receive is twenty in a given year if you win 15 or less through 60. The Least you will receive is 8 if you win 45 or more though 60. Every 3 wins after 15 subtracts 1 dollar. So 18 wins gets you 19 and 21 gets you 18 Ad’s. The dollars rollover year… Read more »
The wheel is a Stupid Idea. The biggest Problem with it is it assumes all drafts are created equal. But in reality a top 5 selection in 2003 was worth more than the first 5 picks of the 2013 draft combined. I realize Wade wasn’t quite as highly regarded as the first 4 guys coming out but he was still an elite prospect that in 2000, 2006, and 2012 would of gone first, first, second. And he probably would of gone first in 2011, and maybe a few of the early 2000’s but I honestly can’t recall. What if your… Read more »
I agree on both accounts: this isn’t scientific at all, but it is fun to think about. Stoudamire and LJ doesn’t sound like it would have been a real great combo to me, personally, but what do I know?