Dissecting Cavs-Warriors

It’s pretty common for sports fans to take their shots at ESPN. Despite delivering both detailed coverage and great analysis of sporting events around the world, and the athletes who participate in them. It’s not uncommon for the worldwide leader to draw criticism from multiple corners, and not without reason. For every Marc Stein or Zach Lowe who truly have the pulse of the sport they cover, there seems to  a Stephen A. Smith or Skip Bayless who seemingly use hot takes just two get a reaction from the masses, even if these takes are sometimes wildly off base.

One of the people who really does great work for ESPN is Ben Alamar, the Director of Sports Analytics at ESPN. Alamar has worked for NFL and NBA teams, including the Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder, and does a terrific job of sharing his information in a fan-friendly way. There’s no doubt that Alamar brings an unbiased perspective to his analysis and is simply trying to share what his analytics tell him about various teams and the potential matchups they may face.

That doesn’t mean that what Alamar’s numbers tell him isn’t up for debate. He recently published a pieced titled “How Kyrie, Cavs Can Beat Warriors“. In this piece Alamar discusses some of the strategies the Cavaliers could use to upset the Warriors if the two teams were to meet again in the NBA Finals. The strategies Alamar advocates for the Cavaliers focusing on include moving the ball, preventing the Warriors from getting their outside shooting, going, and crashing the glass to create extra possessions. These strategies are pretty much common sense, but it’s the odds that Alamar give the Cavaliers on upsetting Golden State that is the most sobering part of the story.

Without giving away all of the details of Alamar’s story, he projects the Warriors as extremely heavy favorites in a series against the Cavaliers, even with a fully healthy roster. It’s no surprise that Golden State would be the favored team, they’re the defending champions and are off to a historical start to this season. What is surprising is how slim of a chance Alamar gives the Cavaliers of pulling off the victory, even with a fully healthy roster. This is the part that is highly debatable.

It’s understandable that Alamar looks at Irving’s numbers and, as impressive as they are, doesn’t see how one man can make a significant impact towards stopping the juggernaut that is the Golden State Warriors. It’s not even a surprise that Alamar doesn’t see a significant change in the Cavaliers’ chances by factoring in both Irving and Iman Shumpert, a very good defenders, but below average offensive player. When you look at it in terms of adding adding numbers, few players will make the kind of difference needed to defeat a championship-caliber team.

But sometimes analytics don’t tell the entire story, and that could very well be the case here. Besides being a transformative offensive player, Irving is also one of the biggest factors in creating a truly balanced offense for the Cavaliers. Even more than LeBron James, Irving can truly score from anywhere on the floor, whether it’s from three, at the rim, from the free throw line, or even in mid-range. His handle—arguably the best in the NBA—makes him almost impossible to guard one-on-one. The problem for other teams is that they cannot double team Irving without compromising their defense in another area. Irving’s presence potentially forces the other team to have to guard LeBron James and Kevin Love one-on-one. They would also have to leave someone such as J.R. Smith or Tristan Thompson open. Considering the Smith is a good three-point shooter with no qualms about firing away, and Thompson is one of the better roll men in the league, you’re still dealing with a pick your poison situation to some extent. Richard Jefferson, Matthew Dellavedova, and possibly even Iman Shumpert are good enough players to make teams pay at shooting guard in Smith’s stead, and hopefully Timofey Mozgov can get his game back to where it was last year on the offensive end as he backs up Thompson and Love. Either way, Irving’s ability to command the double team in a way that Dellavedova and Mo Williams simply cannot is something that does not seemed to be measured well by Alamar’s system. It takes into account the jump from Williams and Dellavedova to Irving, but not the probable uptick in efficiency for the other players Irving shares the court with. In regards to Shumpert, his effect on the Cavaliers’ perimeter defense is obvious, but it must be pointed out that he is not nearly the outside shooter that Jefferson, Williams, Dellavedova, or Smith are.

Alamar also does not account for how the two teams matchup against one another. There is plenty of evidence that the overall success two teams had during the regular season is a much better predictor than when they played one another in the regular season for how a playoff series between the two will play out. That being said, the history of the NBA playoffs is littered with examples of the allegedly inferior team pulling off the upset because of it’s unique matchup advantages against the favored team.

Now, it’s hard to conclusively say that the Warriors are a matchup problem for the Cavaliers. After all, Golden State is a 6-3 against the Cavs over the past two seasons, regular season and playoffs combined. But nearly all of the games have come down to the wire, and when both teams have their big three—James, Irving, and Love for the Cavs, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson for the Warriors—healthy, they have split the two games they have played, the Warriors’ 89-83 victory on Christmas and the Cavaliers’ 110-99 victory last season in Cleveland. Even in their loss on Christmas, the Cavaliers were the first team to hold the Warriors to under 90 points at home since the New York Knicks beat them 89-84 on March 30… of 2014. While these are admittedly small sample sizes, the Cavaliers have shown in both the playoffs and the regular season the ability to dictate the pace of the game against the Warriors.

Countering the Warriors’ “lineup of death” would be incredibly difficult for the Cavaliers, but may not be impossible. A lineup of Irving, Dellavedova, James, Love and Thompson could present the Warriors with enough problems of their own. Dellavedova is fast establishing himself as arguably the Cavaliers’ best two-way guard, and his physical defense on Curry and Thompson combined with his ability to space the floor alongside the Cavaliers’ big three could make things difficult for Golden State. Love and Thompson both bring various strengths and weaknesses to this matchup. Love’s lack of physicality on defense would undoubtedly be an issue, especially because he would likely have to chase Harrison Barnes around the perimeter, but he could also destroy Barnes on the block as well as on the boards. The Warriors would likely ignore Thompson unless he has the ball at the rim, but he does have as good a chance at guarding Green as any player on the roster, and along with Love could destroy the Warriors on the glass.

The Golden State Warriors are an amazing basketball team off to a historic start. They deserved all of the accolades they have received, and are the rightful favorites to repeat as NBA champions. That being said, the strengths of the Cleveland Cavaliers, combined with the way they have played against Golden State the past two seasons, points to them having a real chance of pulling of the upset if they face the Warriors again this June.