Midseason 5-on-5

Hard though it may be to believe, after the Cavs host the Los Angeles Clippers at the Q tonight, they will have trekked all the way to the official halfway point of the 2015-16 season. We’ve learned a lot about this Cavalier team so far on this 40 game hike, yet it seems like we’re just beginning to get a true measure of where they stand on their journey towards a potential championship. Though there’s still much to be determined about the trail ahead, a few of us (including Mike, Cory, Ben, Tom and myself) decided to stop and examine the peaks and valleys of how this team got to this point… who has stood tall, and who has fallen short… muse on if there’s a need to pick up someone along the way… and discuss whether or not the wine & gold will be able to finally reach the top of the NBA mountain this season.

Before we head out, make sure you read David’s excellent recap of last night’s victory over the Nets. Once you have… grab your canteens, compasses and walking sticks, and follow along…

1. Are the Cavs meeting, exceeding or falling short of your expectations so far?

Mike: At 29-11 they’re pretty much where I expected them to be. Of course there are concerns, but with the exception of Monday night’s contest, the Cavaliers have been trending upward for some time, and there’s no reason to think that it won’t continue that way. Monday’s game to the Warriors was incredibly depressing, but it doesn’t mean all that much on it’s own. Remember, the 2007 Cavaliers swept the San Antonio Spurs in the regular season only to have Tim Duncan and company return the favor in the Finals. Of course, the Spurs were the heavily favored team then, just like the Warriors would be this June.

Cory: After the Warriors debacle, it’s natural to feel like the sky is falling. Looking back to last season gives us the perspective of how far this team can go from a much worse place than they are at now. Don’t buy the click bait spam. There’s no need to blow up the core. They are on pace for 60 wins, and that is with Irving and Shumpert missing a third of the season, and Mozgov struggling for months. I’m confident they will win 60 plus games in the regular season, and form Cavoltron by the time we reach June.

Ben: They are slightly falling short of my expectations. Before the season, I picked the Wine and Gold to have the best record in the entire NBA. The Warriors’ start has clearly made that prediction look ridiculous. That aside, I’m a bit shocked that they aren’t even at a 60 win pace as I write this. Still, they have played much of the season without Kyrie Irving, Shump and a healthy Mozgov. We haven’t had to watch Shawn Marion play the 2 guard. There hasn’t been any major bickering. The Warrior game notwithstanding, they are in fine position. I would give them a higher grade if they would consistently attack the rim. Without that action, the best I can give is a B minus.

Tom: I expected them to be a great team after they survived the first 20 games of the season. I didn’t expect them to regress in many areas as they got healthy and I never could have imagined the violence incurred at the hands of the Warriors. It was like watching the first half of Independence Day: everything we loved was blown to smithereens and our previously fearsome weapons of mass destruction were futile. We’re helpless, asking if there’s a way we can learn from the Warriors, if our championship window can co-exist. “What is it you want us to do?” “Diiiiiiie. Diiiiiiie.”

EG: Until the MLK Day Meltdown, this team was exceeding my expectations, especially given the various injuries they were recovering from to begin the season. Every starter was coming off of some level of procedure during the off season… Kyrie (knee) and Shump (wrist) missed most of the first two months… Kevin (shoulder) and Moz (knee) were working back from surgery… and even LeBron was dealing with another injection for his chronically painful back. Not to mention Tristan missing training camp with his contract holdout, as well as some nicks and bruises to J.R., Delly and Mo. They’ve had to adjust and adapt to guys returning from these various issues, and playing their way back into shape, yet they’ve posted a much better record than a year ago. Still, the losses to the only two teams that really matter are troubling, and show just how much further this squad still has to go. The bar is simply higher this year… and so the expectations are now mostly met, but not entirely yet.

2. Which Cavalier has most impressed you?

Mike: Iman Shumpert. Coming into the season, I often wondered if Shumpert was as good on the defensive end as he was said to be. It’s fairly common for players—see Afflalo, Arron—to be hyped as great defenders, when in reality they are anything but. This season though, Shumpert has been tremendous on that end, currently sitting fourth among all shooting guards in defensive RPM. The Cavaliers have also jumped all the way up to a tie for fourth in defensive efficiency since Shumpert’s return, showing his impact on the team. Shumpert is also shooting a decent 35% from three, and if he can bump that up a bit while cutting down his need to isolate and take terrible shots off the dribble, then the Cavaliers could have one of the better 3-and-D players in the league.

Cory: There can’t be an answer other than Delly. He’s shooting 44% from three, plays defense like a family members life is on the line, and is averaging a ridiculous 3.14 assists per turnover per game. My frequent criticism about Andy’s deal have less to do with having Andy on the team, than the fact that his salary handcuffed the team from locking up Delly on an affordable longterm contract.

Ben: Matthew Dellavedova still doesn’t get enough credit. I know some of you think the Cavs: The Blog is written by Delly’s parents, but really the kid is phenomenal. He has recently struggled a bit with this shot, and has had some high turnover games. But, there is no Cavalier who is as consistent with the gameplan as Delly. He always knows which opponents to leave and which to cover. His weakside crashdown on the PnR is hard and on time. His offensive game reminds me of Jamie Moyer. Yes the old MLB lefthander who won a game at age 49. I don’t mean this as a knock at all. Delly changes his speed on the Pick and Roll without giving away his pitch. He throws the lob (fastball) or the floater (changeup) with the same motion and it keeps the defenders off balance. Even though he doesn’t have the best stuff, he relentlessly pounds the strike-zone (attacks the paint). It scrambles the defense and leads to great looks. Try and find a PnR with Delly that doesn’t include at least one guy going to the rim. This is huge. If he pulls up, it is because the defense has gone with the Roller. If he hits the Pop guy, it is only after he has penetrated. He is a genius.

Tom: Delly, obviously.  I’ve always been one of the more vocal Delly supporters but I never would have guessed he’s be sinking 44% of his 3s or that he’d be around 20th in the entire NBA in raw Plus Minus and Per Minute Plus Minus.

EG: The popular answer here will be Delly… and not wrongly, but I’ve personally been impressed by this year’s version of J.R. Smith. He may not have all of the glowing stats to bear this opinion out, but I’ve genuinely liked what I’ve seen from Earl so far this season. He’s hustled and pushed himself on the defensive end, and even though he still commits the occasional poor foul (or gets a little frustrated with the officials), he seems more determined to put the team ahead of himself this year. He’s become a more willing passer, and even when his shot wasn’t falling earlier in the year, he focused on doing the little things to help out. J.R. has also developed an effective “pipe bomb” floater off the dribble to augment his three point sharpshooting. Plus, he was the only guy who played with any type of fire in his belly against the Warriors (even if that fire got him ejected on a questionable flagrant 2). He’s come a long way from being perceived as the “extra baggage” in the deal with the Knicks a year ago.

3. Who has most disappointed you?

Mike: Timofey Mozgov. Last week I wrote a post in defense of Mozgov, and I stand by it. Nevertheless, there’s no doubt that Mozgov’s inconsistency this season has been a disappointment for the Cavaliers, especially after the high level he played at after joining the team last January. Despite the recent rumors, it’s difficult to see how the Cavaliers can get another big man who is as good as Mozgov currently is in a trade. They need Timo to find his stride. Maybe he’s not the player he was last season, but he’s certainly better than this.

Cory: If Victor Frankenstein could conjure Delly’s heart and determination into Mozgov’s frightening frame, the Cavs would have a monster ready to strangle the life out of every pivot in the league. Unfortunately, Mozgov might be the most mortal Cav on the roster. I’ve advocated for months to give the big fella some time off to get his body and mind right. If he doesn’t, they won’t reach their ceiling.

Ben: Kyrie Irving. I know he is just now returning to form. I don’t expect him to immediately be an All-NBA player so soon after the injury. But his energy, desire, and intelligence have all been severely lacking. He spent the better part of six months watching Delly start for him. One would hope that he would try to emulate the work ethic and smarts that Delly exhibits. On the offensive end, his dribble game has stopped ball and player flow. I don’t mind that his shot is off. That will come. I mind that a he doesn’t give himself up to get easy baskets. Every PnR is a scoring opportunity for him. Great, but that isn’t always the best outcome. Kyrie should study Tony Parker. Parker is economical in his movements. He is always going downhill. Pop drilled that into his head from a young age. I don’t mean to say that Kyrie, the best dribbler in the league, should neuter his talent. I just want that talent to bend the defense on every possession. Stop snaking PnRs. Stop pulling up for deep jumpers with the roll man behind you and a slow-footed defender in front. Use your brain. Use your heart. Be the best PG in the league. Oh, and try on D. Please?!

Tom: Timofey Mozgov. He’s been almost unplayable this season after being one of the Cavs most important players during last year’s stretch run. Can’t catch, can’t finish, and isn’t doing a Ben Wallace impression at the other end to make up for it. Last season he flashed a 112 Offensive Rating with the Cavs. This season? 102.

EG: Again, the popular answer here will (rightly) be the man who went from being a Moz-erati to just a plain old late model Moz-da this season. Yes, there is no denying that the big man has been a large disappointment (outside of his winter hat giveaway and commercial), but I’m almost as equally disappointed in the Mo Williams situation. I say situation, because the disappointment (for me anyway) is spread between the player, the way the player has been utilized (or not in this case), and my own expectations for the player (probably unfairly influenced by nostalgia). When Mo was tearing it up last year for both Minny and Charlotte, I imagined what a terrific scoring punch he could give to the Cavs, and what a perfect fit as a backup PG he could be on this team. I was thrilled when the Cavs brought him back to take care of unfinished business, and was thankful he was there to help pull out some early season victories. Yet, I forgot just how bad his defense was… making him nearly unplayable against teams with good PGs. I’d love to believe that Coach Blatt could find spots to play him, but he’s gotten a steady diet of DNP-CDs since Kyrie came back. This has led to speculation of a sulky Mo, which just bums me out. I really had high hopes for his reunion with this team and this town… and I hope there are better days ahead. Play me some Mo Better Blues, Denzel…

4. What is the team’s biggest strength and weakness?

Mike: Shot selection is an underrated strength for this team. While their ball movement is poor, and there’s too many of the iso-LeBron fadeaways, the Cavaliers do a really good job of taking their shots at the rim, at the line, and from beyond the arc. A lot of this is due to the players they have brought in. For the most part, each player does a terrific job staying within their role on offense and taking only the shots that are within their skill set. Even J.R. Smith, a notorious chucker has done a solid job with this since joining the team. The biggest exception may be Shumpert, who takes far too many long twos off the dribble. The biggest weakness, other than the injury histories of several Cavaliers, is the amount of one-way players on the roster. Love, Irving, Smith, Jones, Williams, and to an extent, Richard Jefferson are plus offensive players who are poor defenders. Shumpert, Cunningham, and the rest of the big men are good defenders and limited offensive players. The Warriors and Spurs are built around terrific two-way players, that simply isn’t true with the Cavaliers.

Cory: Their biggest strength is that they can beat 28 teams in the league even on off nights due to their supreme talent advantage. Their biggest weakness is that they haven’t had much time together on the court due to their slew of injuries. If they could constantly play the way they did last Thursday against the Spurs in the first quarter, we’d feel much more comfortable about potential Finals match ups, no matter who the opponent is.

Ben: This teams’ biggest strength is currently its biggest weakness. The Cavs have the roster flexibility and skill flexibility to play a variety of styles. At the moment, it is making it difficult to get a consistent flow. Do they want to go defense first like in the playoffs, and bludgeon teams with their size and grit? Do they want to play Love, Bron, JR, Shump, and Kyrie and light up the other team from distance? Does the team initiate offense at the elbow with two superior PF passers in Bron and Love, or do they spread the floor and PnR teams to death? Really all of this comes back to how LeBron feels like playing at any given moment. The rest of the regular season needs to be devoted to perfecting those various lineups. The only thing that needs to be absent from all of the variations is the desire go say, “I got this.” I would prefer, “we got this!”

Tom: Talent and over-reliance on talent. They can show up and beat teams with minimal focus, discipline, and chemistry. It’s created a false sense of accomplishment. It doesn’t help that everyone just writes them into the Finals as a foregone conclusion. They are also missing a rim-protecting Dive-man (basically, the guy Mozgov was last season).

EG: The fundamental strength of this team as constructed is adaptability. They’ve shown they can play big or ultra small ball… they can play up-tempo or grind it out… they can execute crisp ball movement or go full on ISO-palooza. With the exception of a handful of games, they have proven they can adapt to handle most anything teams throw at them. The fundamental weakness of this team is mistrust. If they’re going to ultimately have a shot at the title in June, they’re going to need to trust in each other… trust in their coach… and trust in a system on both ends of the floor.

5. Do the Cavs have all the pieces they need to win a championship?  (if not, who should they go after?)

Mike: Most years the answer is yes, but this year the Warriors and Spurs both seem like two of the best teams thirty years, so maybe not. The problem is that, not only do the Cavaliers lack the assets needed to make significant upgrades, there are no obvious upgrades available right now. If the Thunder could be talked into a Love-Ibaka trade, that would tilt things for the Cavaliers. Ibaka is nowhere near the all-around offensive threat that Love is, but the Cavaliers use Love mostly as a stretch four, and Ibaka is his equal in this role. He’s also a far better defender who would help shore up the Cavaliers’ rim protection. Given the Thunder’s own defensive issues, it’s hard to see this happening, but maybe the opportunity to reunite college teammates Love and Russell Westbrook would be enough.

Cory: I genuinely believe that them reaching the Spurs, or Warriors’ current level is a shorter journey than the Cavs reaching the level we saw in last season’s playoffs from where they were in early January. They had the talent last season to nearly be up on the Warriors 3-0 in the Finals without Love and with Irving hobbled and Shumpert banged up. If Mozgov gets right, Kyrie is Kyrie, and they properly utilize Love, they can win the title this year without an addition. I’ve run the trade machine so many times on my iPhone that it’s become one of my frequently visited sites. That being typed, it’s going to be hard to add a major player without giving up one of their top 5 pieces. If they could obtain a talent like Markieff Morris, who was better than his #106 rank based on his play last season, without having to give up one of their top 6 players, I would do it. A player I would love to add is John Henson, who got paid in the offseason, and is playing just 16 minutes per night in spite of his ridiculous 4.3 blocks per 36 minutes. I have faith that Dan Gilbert won’t handcuff Griffin in the quest to make the home locker room smell like stale champagne. Spending $150 million on a team that wins the title is a lot easier to swallow, than spending $130 million on a team that doesn’t.

Markieff… Trick? Or treat?

Ben: Yes. The team is complete. Obviously there are some players around the league that would upgrade the roster, but ultimately it doesn’t matter. The success of the Cleveland Cavaliers is purely dependent on LeBron James. What does he want to be? How does he want to play? Will he ever truly internalize “the secret” of basketball. Adding a new teammate won’t change LeBron’s mentality. James simply has to decide that he wants to be more like Tim Duncan than Kobe. More like Bird than Magic. Don’t hunt for mismatches on the perimeter. Find them on the inside. Take that last thought as a metaphor for all things.

Tom: On paper, possibly. They’re pretty loaded, which is why their winning percentage is really nothing to write home about. I think they could still improve at Center but I’m not sure who they could land. I’d definitely be inquiring about Tyson Chandler. Phoenix isn’t going to compete in the next four years and would likely be interested in getting him off their payroll. He’s been pretty useless this season, but it could just be the situation in Phoenix. He posted a career high PER last season and posted a solid 1.7 DRAPM over the previous two seasons.

EG: Yes. This team has everything they need to win a championship on this current roster. The question will be if they are able to maximize the talent they have to fully realize their potential. There is no magic bullet rim protector out there that can be had without moving a major piece. The best remedy is to find a way to rehabilitate Moz into the man he was last year. There is no magic word to say to unlock the riddle of Kevin Love. The best answer is to keep feeding him the ball in positions on the court to succeed and continue to coach him up on defensive rotations. There is no magic trick to getting Kyrie to play better defense or run the offense more effectively. The best reveal is to get him healthy and encourage him to study the playbook. There is no magic spell to get LeBron to play more like Magic. The best solution is for him to regain the trust in the ability of his teammates to deliver. There are no magic beans for David Griffin to swap for another piece. The best outcome is to exhort David Blatt to get the players he has to buy into, believe in, and live and breathe a system.

One For The Road: 

At the halfway point, what’s your revised win prediction and season outcome for the Cavs?

Mike: I think the Cavaliers will win 62 games, tear through the Eastern conference, and then lose in a heartbreaking seven games to Spurs in the NBA Finals. Sorry for the pessimism folks.

Cory: 64 wins and wins the title over San Antonio in 6.

Ben: I stand by my mid 60s win total, and a championship won against a tired Warriors team.

Tom: 58 wins and a 4-1 drubbing at the bloody hands of the Warriors in June.

EG: 60 wins and an epic battle with the Spurs to capture the title in Game 7.