The First Noel (and other roster musings)

With the loss of Chris Birdman Anderson and the continued strange situation with Mo Williams, the Cavs’ roster now stands at 13 active players. There’s been considerable talk on this blog of the Cavs’ backup point guard situation, their lack of the ability to match large post players, and the need for an effective wing (sit back down, Mr. McRae). Through emails, we at CtB have been bandying about ideas on what the Cavs could do to solve these problems. Handicapping the Cavaliers is their lack of future assets. All that remains are the rights to second round picks in 2019 and 2020 and the rights to Cedi Osman. In our debates, a few themes have developed. (big thanks to Tom Pestak for co-writing parts of this piece and others for contributing their thoughts).

Should the Cavs Trade for Nerlens Noel?

On this question there’s been fierce debate. In the pro column is Noel’s considerable defensive ability. I myself gushed over his skills before he was drafted. “Noel is the only player since 1997 to average over 50% from the field (actually .590), 4 blocks per game, 2 steals per game, and 9 rebounds.” And indeed since he’s been drafted, he’s been a formidable defensive player with 2.0 blocks, 2.1 steals, and 9.7 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career. In addition, his defensive RPM has been very good: 3.35 in 2014-15 and 2.29 in 2015-16.

Unfortunately, Noel’s also been by many statistics a terrible offensive player. His career true shooting percentage of 52% is pretty weak for an inside player, and his propensity to jack up low percentage mid rangers inflates the value of his 12.6 points per 36 minutes. His plus minus stats offensively are putrid: -3.48 (11th from the bottom) last year, -4.58 in 2014-15 (second worst in the NBA, one spot ahead of Kendrick Perkins). In fact his oRPM is so bad that RPM creator Jeremias Engelman had this to say of Noel.

Ranks in the bottom 1% in offensive impact (of ~1,500 players since 2001)
Complains about playing time

— Jeremias Engelmann (@JerryEngelmann) December 17, 2016

Think about that. In the last 15 years, Noel is one of the 15 worst offensive players out of 1500 to play in the NBA. Yikes. That’s some rarified depths.

Further complicating the matter is the question: “Where would Nerlens play on this team?” Tristan Thompson plays 29 minutes a night. You certainly can’t play Tristan and Noel together, which leaves 19 for Nerlens. But then, where does 18 minute-per-game, NBA sixth man candidate, Channing Frye play? Sure he can play some at the four with Noel at the five, but then you’re taking away the 6 minutes a night LeBron plays at the four, and minutes from Kevin Love.

In addition, he’s a player who’s redundant to Tristan Thompson. Yes, Noel is a better shotblocker and all all-around defender at the rim, but who knows if he can switch the pick and roll like Tristan, or bring the relentless offensive rebounding Thompson does? Ben Werth sums up.

Noel isn’t worth Cedi. It’s not that he is necessarily a worse player, it’s just that he has far too limited a skill set to sacrifice for a guy with crazy potential. Noel is basically Jerami Grant plus. Put him next to Marc Gasol and he would probably flourish. Any other center, not so much.

Finally, the question is, what would Cleveland have to give up for Nerlens? The only things they have that Philly would want are the rights to Cedi Osman (more on him later), and maybe Iman Shumpert. Losing Shumpert would leave the Cavs thin on the wing and guard spots, and Cedi is too much to give up for a fourth center. But for every argument I make, there’s a rebuttal. Here’s a cogent one from EvilGenius.

It’s pretty early in his career to say that Nerlens isn’t very good… He averaged eight rpg last year in under 30 mpg and shot 52% from the field. I’m assuming you mean he doesn’t weigh enough when you say he’s not big enough to play center, cause the dude has length… His numbers are also a product of who he’s had to play with. He’s not a shot creator like Embiid… and name a decent PG the Sixers have had in the Hinkie era… The Cavs wouldn’t need him to do much other than affect shots, force turnovers and throw down dunks. I’m a fan of Cedi and his game, but there’s no guarantee that ever translates into NBA ability… In my most optimistic fantasy, he becomes the Toni Kukoc joining the Bulls for the second three-peat equivalent for the Cavs… but that feels like a pipe dream…

I’m higher on Nerlens than y’all are, and I don’t think the 76ers trade him for Cedi in a million years — would look too “process”-y for the new management. He’s 3 inches taller than TT, has 3 more inches of wingspan, and put up 11 and 8 with 1.5 BPG and 1.8 SPG with a 54.4% TS — TT put up 8 and 9 without the steals and blocks last year, although his TS% was over 60%. Nerlens was in a historically bad situation for getting good looks, while Tristan had LeBron feeding him — we know what LeBron can do for bigs.

I think it’s a moot discussion because the 76ers don’t make the move, and if they do, this is the last year on Noel’s rookie deal, so if he works out, the Cavs have to pay him, and even Dan Gilbert’s pockets have bottoms.

How good is Cedi Osman?

Cedi Osman would be a lottery pick in this year’s draft, and unlike any of the guys in the lottery, he’s going to contribute right away. He’s 22, and in 22 games with Andalou Efes this season he’s averaging 22 minutes, 11.9 points, 3.3 rebounds, and insane shooting splits of 49%/46%/93%  (FG%/3P%/FT%). Thats a 65 TS% an 128 offensive rating to go with a 109 defensive rating. His stats are really really good for a Euro.

This is what CtB’s Ben Werth said of Cedi pre 2015 draft.

 Though his 2014-2015 counting numbers were rather pedestrian with powerhouse Anadolu Efes Istanbul in the Turkish league, the 6’8″ 20 year old displayed his frenetic energy on a nightly basis. Osman is most easily described as a pleasant mix between Mathew Dellavedova and Chandler Parsons. Like Parsons, Osman is a terror in transition. He times his steps very well at full speed while maintaining good balance for a variety of finishes. His solid rebounding and handle let him start or end the break with equal skill. Like Delly, he plays with top energy at all times showing a good understanding of weakside positional help off ball, and a good chest up technique on ball. On the flip side, his jumper is as streaky as his two NBA counterparts and he gets caught in between on dribble drives. Still, he is first round talent that needs strength and seasoning. It will likely be at least one or two seasons before Osman even considers making the trip to America. That is the only reason why the Cavs would have a realistic shot at snagging him so late. If he is anywhere near their pick, the Cavs should grab him.

Since Osman hasn’t slowed down, still plays at a breakneck speed, has shown insane defensive moments (check out the chasedowns below), and oh, has become an elite shooter.

https://youtu.be/vB-dn90Qt8o?t=15

The Cavs have the opportunity to add a guy who can contribute right away on a rookie scale. We should all remember that the the Cavs have a window of greatness, and should be focusing on winning titles over the next four years, not mortgaging all future for marginal gains this year. They’ll have limited opportunities to add guys who can contribute across those years. They need to think longer than just the end of the bench this season. If they do move Osman, they should do it for a lot more than a six month rental.

Point Guard Options

As we’ve discussed ad nauseum, the Cavs have few options to pick up another point guard. They’re going to have to live with DeAndre Liggins and Iman Shumpert as backup combo guards fot the time being. And unless Tyronn Lue suddenly gets a wave of confidence in Kay Felder, he’s not going to be helping things any time soon. For Cleveland to add someone of impact would be difficult. We’ve thrown around he idea of Mario Chalmers, but an achilles injury is a  very hard one to come back from. So let’s look at some other ideas.

There’s Jameer Nelson. He can still shoot and run an offense, (37% from three, 4.5 assists, only two turnovers) and his defense while not great isn’t awful. Cleveland could get him for a second rounder or two and maybe these guys. His numbers have dropped of late, but that’s mainly because Denver is playing a 34 year old guy 26 minutes a night.

Then there’s the D-League… Canton’s Quinn Cook fits the bill, and more than one commenter has suggested dumping McRae for Cook. Cook is averaging 25 points, 5.9 assists, and 5.4 rebounds in 39 minutes a night with 47%/37%/89% shooting splits. The only other guys in the DL with Cook’s collection of playmaking skills, scoring, and shooting are Pierre Jackson (his five-foot-11 stature presents the same problems as Kay), Ray McCallum, Demetrius Jackson, and the cherubic Josh Maggette (10.4 assists, 2.3 turnovers!). Of those, Cook makes the most sense, since Canton runs the same offense, and at six-two he’s two inches taller than McCallum and Jackson. But his ability to contribute, as with all D-League players, remains a long shot. Color me intrigued with Josh Maggette whose playmaking numbers are eye popping, but he looks too angelic to be a good NBA point.

There’s also the buyout route. I’ve mentioned that Deron Williams might receive a buyout. He can still make plays, but he can’t shoot anymore (39%/30%/94%). His 12.9 points, 6.6 assists in 31 minutes a night are probably enough to keep him on the roster. Devin Harris? Not so much. He could probably be bought out, but he’s worse than Shump and Liggins at this point.

And then, around the NBA, it’s slim pickings. Not a lot of teams are keeping veteran guys around. I mean there’s Beno Udrih, but he’s 52, and Miami’s not trading with Cleveland. I suppose C.J. Watson is an option. He makes $5 million for the next two years to fill the Boobie role for Orlando. 42% from three and 27% from the field. Except C.J.’s is -3.41 RPM last year makes me think he isn’t a playmaker who’d move the needle in the positive direction.

Shabazz Napier is playing behind McCollum and Lillard for the Blazers. I didn’t love what I saw from him in Miami, but he might be worth a flier for a second rounder. He’s putting up a respectable -.92 RPM, (26th for point guards), but Shabazz lays more bricks than the third little pig with his 37%/30%/67% shooting splits. But hey, LeBron tweeted about him once.

The one guy who intrigues me right now is Utah’s Raul Neto. He’s absolutely buried behind George Hill, Shelvin Mack, and Dante Exum. I wouldn’t trade him for Cedi, but I’d trade him for Cedi and a protected first rounder. Neto posts a solid 15.7 PER and shot 44%/41%/75% last year. He had a PER36 of 11.4 points and 4.2 assists. But that’s with a not fantastic -2.03 RPM. Maybe I wouldn’t trade him for Cedi. Could Cleveland get him for a second rounder?

CtB’s Mike Schreiner proposed this trade for Langston Galloway.

Mike included Cedi Osman, so I immediately used my security council veto. I don’t love Galloway. He seems like a volume scorer on a bad team guy, with PER36 stats of 16.3 points and 2.5 assists with just 50TS% but his RPM is a respectable -.34 and on the right team maybe he doesn’t chuck so much. You’ll also notice that Mike included Alex Ajinca the seven-foot-one backup center from the Pelicans, which brings us to our next question.

How do the Cavs get another center, and what kind of center should they get?

Chris Andersen’s season ending injury put the Cavs in a tough spot. They don’t have a lot of depth up front, and Birdman was a guy who could at least bang with the larger centers in the league and lay some wood on guys when they came in the lane. The rest of the Cavs bigs are going to get beat up playing heavy minutes in the regular season and playoffs. And the the Cavs need a fourth big just to give guys some nights off and to provide six fouls in the playoffs. Ideally, they’d get a guy with size, who’d be happy playing 12 minutes a night, who could block some shots and not suck on offense. There’s not many of those dudes in the league. The days of needing a dominant big in the NBA are over, but there are still guys Cleveland could go up against in the playoffs who could give them some problems: Valanciunas, Dwight Howard, Andre Drummond, Al Jefferson, Greg Monroe… And it’s not as if I’m afraid of the Cavs losing to any of those teams in the playoffs, but could it mean the difference between dropping a game or two? Absolutely. The margin of error is going to be so tight that every bit of health, rest, and momentum will be key.

John Krolik disagreed with me.

The need for a mobile rim-protector is significant, because this is not a very good defensive team. Still, it’s about resource allocation, and the Cavs need another good wing (or a backup point who would allow Shump to slide back to the wing) for the Raptors and the Warriors more than they need another big, and those are the only two series that really matter.

He may very well be right, especially with the Cavs limited options. There’s not a lot of guys with size and skill. We did mention Ajinca earlier. Krolik had this to say about him.

The best MacGuyver big man plan I can come up with is grabbing Ajinca from NO on a salary dump. He’s got $15 million remaining over 3 years, he’s huge with soft hands, and he’s playing terribly. He’s pretty much only good at blocking shots, catching and dunking, and being really big, although he has surprising touch. This plan revolves around NOLA regarding Ajinca as dead money, the idea that he’d thrive switching from a team with no backcourt shot creation to a team that would only ask him to catch and dunk, and my constant willingness to spend Dan Gilbert’s money. And it is time to say it: I have JaVale envy right now.

Ajinca is posting a -2.56 RPM this year which is third worst among centers (Timo is last at -2.84). He’s also sporting an anemic 11.43 PER. But in echoing John, so much of the effectiveness of big men is based on the situation that they’re in. We’ve all seen what LeBron James and Kyrie irving can do with a huge target around the basket.

In Sacramento there’s our old pal Kosta Koufos, who’s appeared in Cavs trade rumors for four years straight, or Cleveland could attempt to rehab the bust label on Willie Cauley-Stein. Koufos makes $8 million and fits into the Varejao trade exception he’s sported an RPM around zero the last few years, and is a solid scorer, rebounder, and shotblocker, but he’s not fantastic at any one of those things. Cauley-Stein is a far cry from the dominant defensive player he was at Kentucky.

On his weekly “Hey Windy” Podcast, Brian Windhorst brought up to idea of signing Donatas Motiejunas.  Apparently he’s in a strange situation where he can’t wind up in Brooklyn (the team that initially signed him in restricted free agency) and he failed his physical in Houston.  He released a statement saying goodbye to the fans in Houston. It’s a long shot, and the Cavs would have to convince the 26-year-old big man to take a pro-rated minimum which seems highly unlikely.  They could, however, promise him minutes on a high profile team chasing a championship in an attempt to boost his value for free agency next year.

I’m fond of Walter (Edy) Tavares who’s currently in the D-League, but he was on the Hawks’ roster for a year and played 11 games for them. He’s currently averaging 9.2, 8.3 points, and 3.3 blocks for the Raptors 905 (wtf is that for a team name?). But the dude is a seven-foot-two foul machine, delivering 3.3 a night in that time span (in the D-League no less). But hey, as we said on the pod last night, the Cavs need a warm body at the center spot. Why not one with some upside? If they wanna go the D-League route, there’s Keith Benson and Dakari Johnson who are first and third in blocks, and can actually do something offensively.

There’s my favorite trade: the Cavs end up with Jeff Withey: shot blocker, adequate offensive player, and Raul Neto for Cedi and roster fodder, and the Cavs get a highly protected first round pick. Withey posts a 19 per and a not awful -.71 RPM to go along with his always elite shot blocking skills.

Finally, Windy said to keep an eye out for Portland.  The Blazers own the Cavs 2018 1st round pick but the upcoming 2017 draft is supposedly better. The Cavs can’t trade their 2017 pick to any team except the Blazers because if they get the 2018 pick back they won’t have violated the Stepien rule. Portland is an underachieving team with too many players.  The problem is they are way too loaded on the wings and not in the front court (well, they have a lot of front court players, but none of them are all that good).  Maybe they could be involved in a 3-team trade, or maybe Cleveland could get a wing… But that’s a discussion for another time. I leave you with parting thoughts from John Krolik

Alright. I’ll also just add that this team is flat-out thin, and I don’t know if there’s a great solution for that when all 5 of the starters are getting paid absolutely full price, with no high draft picks coming in. I mean, the team really does need another NBA-quality rotation guard, wing, and big to have a comfortable rotation for the 82-game season, and the going prices for those guys, as we saw this summer, are not cheap.

This is where I miss the Danny Ferry special — trade a vet who doesn’t want to be on a bad team for a good player on said bad team, then get him back when his team buys him out. I think they outlawed that because of him — he’s the UCLA Lew Alcindor of GMs!