Cavs: the Duels- To Rest Or Not To Rest, That Is The Question, Part I

A few days ago, I got pretty worked up about all the talk surrounding LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love resting against the Clippers. I did it to myself by listening to too much talk radio. I wanted some validation for my anger, so I fired off an email to the Cavs: The Blog team. And, this is the start of our dialogue. Over the next week or so we’ll post a couple parts of our talk about rest.

The esteemed Tom Pestak and myself are firm believers in rest. Nate Smith and Elijah Kim aren’t as down with it. We served up the first volley.

David Wood

Since Saturday the 18th of March, the Cavs have been subjected to some pretty hot takes about resting players. On the night in question, they were playing the Clippers in Los Angeles. It was an ABC prime time Saturday night game. The Cavs decided to sit Kevin Love, LeBron James, and Kyrie Irving. On first glance, it appeared all three guys were healthy scratches. That was not the case.

Kyrie pulled himself from the previous game against the Jazz with knee tightness, and Kevin Love made his return from knee surgery against the Jazz. Yea, he was “healthy” Saturday, but the team doctors said he needed to rest his knee, which made sense, since a little less than five week ago surgeons were cutting him open. And LeBron, the man who has already played more minutes than Jordan did in his whole career and will surpass Kobe’s minute total in the next year or so, was told to rest by Tyronn Lue. It should also be noted that the King is second in minutes played per game this season, with 37.6 per game(He’s the only player in the top ten for minutes over the age of 30. Kyle Lowry is 30. The next oldest players on the list are 27 and haven’t been to a Finals ever).

Despite all of those things, Adam Silver called Cavaliers General Manager David Griffin and admonished him.

A little later this statement was issued by Silver:

“Decisions of this kind … can affect fans and business partners, impact our reputation and damage the perception of our game,” Silver wrote in the memo, which was obtained by The Associated Press. “With so much at stake, it is simply not acceptable for governors to be uninvolved or to defer decision-making authority on these matters to others in their organizations.”

“Please also be reminded that under current league rules teams are required to provide notice to the league office, their opponent and the media immediately upon a determination that a player will not participate in a game due to rest,” Silver wrote. “Failure to abide by these rules will result in significant penalties.”

Silver’s basic argument is that the fans pay a lot for tickets and want to see the stars. And, on top of that, the sponsors of the league and broadcasters spend a ton of money for a top tier prime time national product. Every person in an NBA organization needs to be aware of that.

There are several reasons the NBA is in the wrong for commenting that players shouldn’t rest for certain games, mainly national ones, and trying to mandate when a player should or how a player should rest. Here are some of the big ones.

1. Circumstances need to be considered, and the league needs to let coaches be smart. In the case of the Cavs, they have the one seed in the East. And, they really don’t need to win anyways because they know they can run through the East with ease, no matter their seed.

On the night that sparked a thousand takes, they were going to be without Love and Irving. LeBron could have played. Let’s be honest though, the Clippers are a decent team. Even at full strength, the Cavs could have lost. Without two of their stars, it was almost a guaranteed loss. And, if they somehow were to win, the King would have had to play forty plus minutes. He’s already playing too many minutes, so it would have just been dumb to play him solo against the Clippers.

There’s also this caveat to consider too. The Cavs were playing the Lakers the next night. That game was an easy win and presumably wouldn’t stretch the stars too much. Lue was simply being smart resting the players against the tougher team regardless of the game being on National TV.

2. Personal days. Every one takes them. When I take them, I call work and say “I’m not coming in today.” They will usually ask why. I will say, “I’m just not coming in.” It’s my right. And, seeing as I like to treat all people the same because I’m all for equality, I want to ask you: why don’t NBA players get personal days? Yea, they make millions, but at the end of the day, the NBA is their job. It’s not their world. Is Adam Silver a dirty dictator who doesn’t believe his workers deserve rights? No, absolutely not, but he is being a bit too Stern-ish for my taste with all his talk about players resting hurting the league.

3. Fortunately for Adam Silver, it usually works itself out. The players and owners both love money. It’s not likely that the players will rest so much that the league starts to lose money. I’m no lawyer, but I’m pretty sure the 50/50 split the CBA speaks of means all basketball related income is split evenly. Why would players rest so much that the total amount of money available to them is much less than it could be?

4. I understand that Silver may be under pressure from the people holding national TV deals, but that’s too bad. Those deals are signed and pressuring teams to change how they rest guys is shortsighted. The best thing for all parties involved with the NBA is having the largest number of healthy superstars playing. Stars make the league money.

Stars and big location teams drive the league. Just look at NBA Finals ratings. 2003 and 2007 were the lowest rated Finals in recent history. 2003 featured the Spurs and Nets. There weren’t any big personalities. Jason Kidd, Tim Duncan and Richard Jefferson were probably the biggest names involved. 2007 was the Cavs against the Spurs. At that point, the only big name star for non-basketball lovers was LeBron. Now, imagine the ratings of that series if LeBron wasn’t involved.

The 2005 series between the Spurs and Pistons wasn’t even rated highly, and it was a series that went seven games. The only reason it rates higher than the other two low-points is because the Pistons beat Kobe in the Finals the previous year. People wanted to see the team that beat the “greatest scoring clutch man ever.”

5. True NBA fans want players to rest. I want to see the best players healthy and playing for a long time (It’s safe to assume that resting guys lets them play longer and stay healthy. Never go against Gregg Popovich.) As someone with disposable income, the rest pill is a little easier to swallow.  f I go to a game and my favorite stars aren’t playing, I can always go next year assuming said stars will still be playing, which they are more likely to be if their teams are properly managing their bodies.

6. And lastly, the true fans are the ones watching every game. They pay for league pass. If they’re like us (the writers on this blog and people who comment), they obsess over the games. They buy jerseys. They spent hours emailing about guys like Kay Felder. They write blog posts that ultimately raise the value of the NBA because Google values the keyword “NBA” that much more every article that’s posted on it. Much like Sixers fans trusting the process, true blue NBA fans want to win the long game.

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There’s no easy way to fix the rest issue. The season is going to be 82 games for a pretty long time. I’m almost certain TV deals are for 82 games and those contracts stretch years. There is no super lawyer that could somehow get teams out of their local TV deals even if owners wanted less games.

Yes, the league could lengthen the season and eliminate back-to-backs and four-in-five type situations. They could even work to reduce total air travel by giving teams longer road stretches, so they aren’t going home for a game and then traveling for another road game, which would probably help guys adjust and figure out how to live more efficiently on the road.

But, should they do any of those things? I’m actually serious here. I watch more NBA than most people and I’ve seen some awful games games due to the way the league schedules. I’ve also seen some very interesting games and watched guys I wouldn’t normally watch because of the way the league schedules. I’ve seen the Spurs quasi D-League team embarrass people. I’ve seen Richard Jefferson attempt to run an offense for a contender five years after he had any business doing anything besides shooting 3s and cutting baseline because of the schedule. It can be charming. And resource management is an important strategy of coaching.

If you’re one of the people that need to see a star play every single game no matter what, you can become a Thunder fan. Russell Westbrook is a robot that needs no rest and will always play at 100% because it’s not mathematically possible to play at any more percent than that.

Tom Pestak

In 2008 the NBA Champion Celtics defended the Boston Garden 13 out of 14 times, and were a paltry 3-9 on the road. That season, the Home Team won 74% of all NBA playoff games. In 2014, the San Antonio Spurs, after falling late at Home in Game 2 of the Finals, eviscerated the Miami Heat by 20 points apiece in Games 3 and 4 before taking the series in 5. That season the Home Team won just 57% of playoff games. Whether or not you believe those numbers are statistically meaningful or completely random, I’m here to tell you that in both cases I saw the immediate correction the next season. In 2009, a few months after Home Court Advantage seemed paramount to postseason success, the NBA finished one Orlando Magic victory shy of having its first ever season with four 60+ win teams. In 2015, on the heels of a 4-1 defeat to a team Chris Bosh described as the best teams he had ever seen, LeBron most certainly recognized three facts.

1.  Tim Duncan, at age 37, led his team in playoff minutes. (Duncan was second to only LeBron in Win Shares for the 2014 playoffs).
2. Duncan hadn’t played more than 35 minutes a game since the 2004 season when he was 27 years old, a full 3 seasons before Duncan famously told LeBron that the NBA would “be your league someday.” A decade later, it was still partly The Big Fundamental’s league. Meanwhile, best friend Dwyane Wade was breaking down right in front of LeBron’s eyes.
3. Home court advantage didn’t mean squat during that postseason run. So, in 2015, on the heels of a beatdown at the hands of a 37 year old center with only one working heel, LeBron James surprised everyone by taking 2 weeks off to chill in Miami in the middle of December. It didn’t matter that the Cavs were mired in a malaise and Bill Simmons was “I’m not saying/I’m just saying” aloud that SuperStar LeBron was a thing of the past. [pause for dramatic effect] It worked out.

Rest, that is, worked.

The NBA’s rest issue is fundamentally about competing incentives. Mike and Mike appropriately simplified the problem as such: there’s the business of winning championship, and the business of the business. Being a star-driven league lusting over global expansion, the NBA has some defining traits that primes it for this rest controversy.

Let’s consider the Big 3 professional sporting leagues in America: MLB, NBA, and NFL. Major League Baseball plays 162 games and the median ticket price is $32. Rest is fundamentally built into Pitcher and Catcher rotations and fans have no quarrel with this besides the occasional purist bragging on behalf of some long-dead hurler. The last pitcher to start both games of a double-header was Wilbur Wood in 1973. He was a knuckleballer. For the star sluggers, cumulative (not per game) statistics are a huge incentive to get as many at-bats as possible, and outside of those hoping to catch a Barry Bonds at-bat in 2004, few baseball fans are paying to see a particular player in the visiting dugout.

The NFL is at the other end of the spectrum. Median ticket prices were $86 last season. Star players would rarely sit out a game due to injury concerns from fatigue until a playoff bye was clinched, and then, they’d be almost guaranteed to sit once that incentive had been locked in. But the value of each game towards playoff success in the NFL is so high that there are very few competing incentives that could convince a coach to sit a difference-making player until that team’s playoff seeding was locked in. Rest in the NFL is a running back getting a breather after a 60-yard breakaway.  And NFL players are known for playing through injuries.

The NBA is in a strange place. If we dig into all the competing incentives around the decision to rest or not rest a star player in a regular season game, it becomes clear that what some teams are increasingly doing is rational and becoming more incentivized. In fact, after exploring all the facets of this issue, I hope Adam Silver sent a second, private letter, thanking the Cavs for being as liberal with LeBron’s minutes as they have and actually asking them to tone it down a bit, you know, for the long term health of the league, which, since 2002, has been inextricably tied to LeBron James.

The Incentives directing a decision NOT to rest:

1. Playoff Seeding (Team)
2. Rotations/Rhythm (Coach/Team)
3. Popularity (Player)
4. Respect (Player)
5. Accumulated Stats / Streaks (Player)
6. Streaks
7. MVP Consideration (Player)
8. $ from Ticket Sales (Mostly Owners)
9. Fans Don’t Feel Disrespected (The Commissioner/The Collective Owners)

I’m going to cap myself to one fact or tidbit about each of these to show how the total calculus is trending in a direction that’s going to require a fix beyond shaming, leaked plea letters, and 6-figure fines.

1. Playoff seeding: This chart shows that until last season home court advantage was evaporating in the playoffs.

2. Rotations/Rhythm: It’s hard to say how much of an incentive this is. Coach Lue mentioned it the other day, that he just wanted his team healthy so he could work on normal, playoff rotations. It’s hard to imagine this trumps some of the other incentives.

3. Popularity: Is LeBron going to become less popular in LA because he sat out a game against the Clippers? Not at all. His popularity had nothing to do with LA Clippers games before now.

4. Respect: This is the area that most pundits are trying to leverage, using shame and hyperbolic hot takes to bully players and coaches into not using DNPs on otherwise healthy players. Someday someone will use these DNPs against LeBron in an argument comparing him unfavorably to Michael Jordan. Will it bother LeBron? Actually, it might. Is it fair? Not completely. Jordan did bring it every night in a way anathema to “Chill mode”, but he also took two years off from basketball and started his NBA career three years older than LeBron.

5. Accumulated Stats: This is sort of a hard to lock down. If LeBron plays less games overall, he’s going to accumulate less stats, and have a lesser chance of catching Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the all-time NBA scoring record. But, less games overall doesn’t mean less games per season. LeBron’s not going to play into his 60s by only suiting up a couple times a season, but he probably doesn’t maximize total games by playing 82 a season as long as he can. LeBron has said he prefers less games to less minutes per game, so that’s probably going to be a self-fulfilling prophecy.

6. Streaks: The only streaks that end when a player gets a DNP is the active games played in a row streak, which is currently held by Tristan Thompson. It’s a powerful incentive for him, as he’s been battling tendinitis but still played in that Clipper catastrophe. The Cavs are actually planning to rest him by starting him and taking him out early to keep the streak alive.

7. MVP Consideration: It’s hard to know how badly LeBron wants another MVP trophy. Clearly, it’s orders of magnitude less important to him than a Finals MVP trophy, but it might be the strongest incentive for him to not miss too many games as a healthy scratch.

8. $ from Ticket Sales: Dan Gilbert paid $40 million dollars so that the Cavs, should they face Dwight Howard, could defend him without double teaming. He spent…(alright, you know the speech.) CavsDan didn’t buy the Cavs as an investment. He bought them because he’s competitive as hell and wanted to own a sports franchise since he was a teenager. He could care less about what the Cavs decision to rest LeBron means for ticket sales now or the perceived downstream affects it might have on the future of the league.

9. Fan Outrage: No one wants angry fans, and I’m sure LeBron and Dan Gilbert, both proud fathers, can sympathize with the Dad that shelled out a couple hundred bones to sit courtside to watch the brightest NBA stars yuck it up on the bench all game. Lots of NBA people care about this, in the same way they care about reducing fossil fuel emissions. It sounds great as long as it doesn’t affect your bottom line too much. Doc Rivers can virtue signal all he wants, but if Chris Paul isn’t 100% his team has a 0% chance of winning one game against the Warriors or Spurs. For the Cavs and other legitimate Championship contenders, the Larry O’Brien trophy is the bottom line, not TV ratings or courtside-fan-in-other-city’s happiness. You know what sucks more than shelling out a couple hundred bones to watch an opposing player rest in March? Shelling out a couple thousand to watch your team lose a game in June.

So the question is, do these incentives outweigh:

1. Avoiding Fatigue Injuries
2. Ensuring Fresh Playoff Legs
3. Extending Careers

It depends on the situation, but for teams with very little anxiety over their final playoff seeding, the decision to periodically rest stars to avoid injures and/or improve playoff freshness is very rational. In the case of the Cavs, Spurs, and Warriors, the three teams raising eyebrows over the last week, history vindicated their decision before they made it. The Winningest Team in NBA history believes it was defeated because it spent too much energy trying to set the regular season wins record.

The Winningest franchise in the post-Jordan era won titles 7 years apart with the same core players by meticulously managing their minutes and extending the career of their franchise anchor. And for the Champs? Our Cavs? Let’s see, they didn’t need home court to sweep the 60-win Hawks nor to become the first team in NBA history to overcome a 3-1 deficit, much less a 3-1 deficit with 2 of the next 3 games on the road against a team that hadn’t lost 3 straight games in 3 years. They believe they’d have won the title in 2015 if one of Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love had been healthy for the Finals.

For the league, this is going to get worse before it gets better. A couple years back, famous gambler Bob Voulgaris bragged on twitter that he knew more than NBA coaches and could prove that intentionally fouling bad free throw shooters was an irrational decision. Long before Kevin Pelton looked into the actual data (Voulgaris just modeled situations using expected value, instead of, you know, actually looking at what happened) proving it made a ton of sense, I already realized Voulgaris was wrong. Why? Because if someone has to be wrong between Gregg Popovich and Bob Voulgaris, it’s not going to be Gregg Popovich. That goes for the benefits of “DNP-Old”, reduced minutes per game, and trading regular season wins for fresh playoff legs. Everyone (including Adam Silver) is parroting this idea that health analytics point intransigently towards more rest being a good thing. I’m not going to waste Pelton’s time asking him to look it up. Popovich ain’t wrong, and anyway, there’s too much recent history on the minds of these teams. Remember, recency bias cost Dan Gilbert 40 million dollars in 2010. If Adam Silver wants to drop a million dollar fine on him for resting LeBron next week against the Spurs on National TV, at least it will be a million dollars for 48 minutes, and not 58 seconds of Andrew Bogut.

If the NBA wants to eliminate DNP-Old, or DNP-(fiction) without getting draconian, they can do two things. First, they can remove every “schedule loss” that teams face due to tough travel, 4 games in 5 nights, back-to-backs, etc. They will do this to some extent, but if they want the problem to go away it needs to be the maximum extent possible while keeping an 82 game season. A more fundamental change, and one that would immediately alter the incentive calculus, is to give the top 2 teams in each conference a first round playoff bye. Suddenly, Kevin Love’s arm stays in its socket, Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert get a week off to heal, and LeBron is guaranteed his rest. That is an immense incentive worth fighting for and it addresses one of the biggest disincentives to trying to win as many regular season games as possible – fresh playoff legs. In fact, you could argue that every seed becomes more valuable in this system if the ultimate goal is to go as far as one can in the playoffs. This is probably a pill too hard to swallow for the NBA. Playoff games are all nationally televised and the best teams get the best ratings. For the owners, more playoff games = more revenue.

So, does this make any sense? Not really. Why trade playoff games for regular season games? In my opinion, the larger problem is that the regular season is so inferior to the playoffs. How many times have you watched an NFL game in November and heard the announcers say “this game has a playoff intensity to it” when referring to the effort level and quality of play (as opposed to say a rowdy crowd)? Or a baseball game? You will hear this an uncomfortable number of times if you follow the NBA closely. Meaning, it’s worth pointing out every time both teams are playing with a sense of urgency, because it’s not the norm. Playoff basketball is a completely different level of play. It’s like the last half of the 4th quarter of a tight game, but, for 48 minutes instead of six.

The NBA has a regular season problem, and forcing teams to play their stars “or else” will only exacerbate the problem, leading to an epidemic of chill mode among the elite teams, mirrored by the #tankstrongs shortly after the trade deadline. As long as the NBA is selling (and the fans are buying) star players and not rivalries, coaches, or ball movement, expect these concerns to grow louder as more and more teams follow suit given the current incentives.

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