5 on 5: First Round 2017 Edition

1. Who or what aspect of the Pacers scares you the most? Is it enough to make this series competitive?

Eli: The Pacers are a unique team and I believe while the outcome will be kind of similar to last year’s first round series against Detroit (a competitive sweep) the Pacers scare me a little bit more than Detroit did last year mainly due to Paul George and Myles Turner.  Paul George is a star who has recovered nicely from his freak accident during a Team USA scrimmage.  He was challenging LeBron’s Heat teams in 2012 and 2013 and considered to be a player that could get the Celtics over the hump.  Turner is a young kid who has come around recently.  He’s the kind of the big that can give the Cavs trouble with his size and offensive game (shooting over 50% from the field and 34.8% from three).

Despite all of this, I don’t think it is enough to make it competitive in terms of number of games.  I think the games will be close but the Cavs have enough offense to win in five games.  Paul George perhaps had his best game of the year two weeks ago against the Cavs which caused the Tristan and LeBron meltdown and still lost so it’s doesn’t seem that the Cavs would be in any serious trouble.

Cory: For Pacers’ fans, this looming series must feel like a series finale of Lost or something. They’ve spent the past seven seasons watching George grow into a superstar, then saw his leg explode on a stanchion in Vegas, then witnessed him return to form following that devastating injury, and now, this might be his final week and a half on the team.

This is going to be a fulcrum series for the future of the Indiana Pacers. If Paul George can challenge LeBron for the entire series like he did in their April 2nd duel, this sucker could go six games. If he succumbs to the outside chatter and the media speculation that he won’t make an All-NBA team, and thus his super-max extension with the Pacers is off the table, he’s probably as good as gone and they’ll trade him on draft night to the Lakers to rebuild a young core around Myles Turner and whomever they can lure in free agency.

The Cavs won the regular season series 3-1, with their only loss to the Pacers coming on a road back-to-back in November. There will be no back to backs this series, and the Cavs will bust out the brooms.

Nate: Uh, a guy named Paul George? Anyone heard of him? He only averaged 33, eight boards, and 4.5 assists during the six game 5-1 surge that led Indy to the playoffs (though every team’s final game was a joke). The problem is that unless LeBron learns how to play one-on-one defense again, the Cavs really have no one that can stop George. Teague doesn’t scare me. TT can contain Myles Turner. Someone will have to stick to C.J. Miles like glue, but Paul George? You might just have to give him his 35 and shut everyone else down.

Carson: This upcoming Cavs-Pacers matinee (coming soon to an arena near you) ain’t exactly a horror flick… but it does have a PG13 rating. After watching Paul George recently duel LeBron James into double overtime at the Q, it’s hard to find much scarier about this series than George. Let’s not overthink this. When you have a guy who can more or less play LeBron to a draw, things can get scary. The Pacers have underwhelmed this season, but George remains a bona fide superstar and one of the five best two-way players in the league. He can shoot, pass, run the floor, get to the rack, and defend at an elite level. This is a guy who essentially single-handedly forced the eventual Conference Finalist Raptors to seven games in last year’s first round. Will George be enough to make this series competitive? He and a scrappy Pacers squad will make the Cavs work, and George will get his numbers, but barring a major collapse or sudden gust of wind, this should still be over quickly.

Tom: Competitive?  The Cavs couldn’t beat Atlanta’s bench a few days ago, so I presume nothing.  If the Cavs sweep we’ll go “we expected nothing less of our Cavaliers after sweeping the 1st round the last two seasons.”  If they get swept we’ll go “well they gave up 400 points to a Jose Calderon-led Hawks team in 4th quarters last week, so, yeah, they were obviously sick.”  Every prediction surrounding the Cavs starts by wondering how closely the Cavs will play to their talent ceiling.  Since the uncertainty surrounding that first assumption is so high it makes any predictions difficult.  I guess to avoid copping out of the question I’ll say I’m mildly worried about how well the Pacers played at home this season and the boost that Lance Stephenson has given them.  They are 5-1 since he joined the team, the lone loss being the OT game against the Cavs and he’s generating over 4 dimes in just 20 minutes.  He’s been pretty disappointing the last few seasons and it just feels like this fresh start honeymoon period is going to last a little longer at least.

2. What is your biggest concern about this Cavs team going into the playoffs?
Eli: The biggest concern about this Cavs team has to be the defensive consistency, or lack thereof.  This team didn’t become a bottom third defense because of bad luck, they have really bad tendencies and lose focus easily.  The Hawks collapse last weekend is pretty much the Cavs in a nutshell, able to play really well for most of the game and then lose focus and give up 44 points.

I do think the Cavs are better than their defensive rating but by no means a true top third team in defense.  There was a statistic released by the Athletic that indicated the Cavs were near top ten status in half court situation defense which is fool’s gold because their transition defense is so trash that they sink all the way down to 22nd in total defense.  Against an inferior opponent like the Pacers, I don’t think it’s a back breaker but starting with the second round and on, this could be what leads to an earlier than expected demise.

Cory: The Cavs finding their defensive switch and duct tapping that sucker on for the next six weeks. The past two postseasons they’ve made the Finals with swarming defense and winning the 50/50 hustle stats. Other than their blowout of the Celtics a week ago, they haven’t been consistent on the defensive end in months. While Delly wasn’t a leader of the team, I do feel like he might have set the hustle example on the floor, and I fear that they might get complacent with leads and let opponents climb back into games.

Carson: I’m tempted to say defense, but I’ll extrapolate that issue a step farther to the Cavs’ broader concern: focus. This is a team that does not handle frontrunning well. After coming back from 3-1 against the Warriors to win last year’s title, these Cavs have themselves believing they can do just about anything. This is evident in the way Cleveland has eschewed the regular season, falling back on the ability to theoretically “turn it on” at will. Never has the Cavs’ up and down nature been more glaring than in the final week of the season, when they rolled into Boston coming off a terrible stretch of games, only to wax a Celtics team with a lot to play for in what was perhaps the most impressive win of the season, and then follow up that win by blowing the next two games against Atlanta in the most creatively embarrassing fashions imaginable. Can the Cavs maintain the singularly driven, cutthroat focus that will advance them through four rounds? That’s my biggest concern.

Tom: That they aren’t prepared for the postseason.  I think they believe in their ability to flip the switch and have been dominating the eastern conference for so long they aren’t going to know what hit them when other teams shorten their rotations, get more rest, scheme against them, etc etc.  Maybe the talent disparity will be the ultimate chip but there are some talented starting 5s in the East that didn’t win 60 games because of lack of depth.  I didn’t feel the Cavs were prepared last season either and they disposed of the East without much drama, so it could happen that way again, but I’ve just seen so many defensive breakdowns lately and even mis-aligned offensive sets.  The ones where Iman Shumpert is the recipient of a dribble drive or Deron Williams finds himself spotted up after a pick n pop.  Their were times in November and December where the Cavs offense just seemed to get any shot they wanted with ease.  Maybe it went away because Kevin Love got injured and isn’t back to 100%, but they just look like a team on their heels a lot.

Windhorst: The #Cavs need another "Lil Kev". They had fun with it and rallied around it last year. It was unlocked by "Lil Kev".

— ESPN Cleveland (@ESPNCleveland) April 13, 2017

Nate: Lil’ Kev – that’s who is missing. He was a catalyst. He tied the whole team together. He was such a great locker room guy, even if he was two dimensional. The Cavs need something ridiculous, fun, and stupid, to galvanize them – maybe even something to knock them all down a peg – make them less pompous and more hungry. Or maybe they need a pet. Stanley the flat earth turtle would be my suggestion. Or maybe they could peel pieces of clothing off of a giant cardboard cutout of Brian Windhorst every time they win a game, like the Tribe in Major League. Or maybe they need to just start playing basketball like they care.

3. Who will be the Cavs’ biggest surprise contributor?

Tom: I’ll go with Richard Jefferson.  That guy just did so many little things last year in the postseason to help the Cavs win.  He was very opportunistic and not afraid of the moment when the games got tight.  He’s had a lousy season but we all know Lue prefers veterans that had crappy seasons in big playoff moments.  For some reason I think Jefferson will shine a bit, maybe not with gaudy stats, but just solid play at crucial moments of the game.

Eli: The Cavs biggest surprise contributor will be…………………. D-Will. And no, not the point guard.  Derrick Williams.

Before the Heat game, Lue hinted that Derrick Williams may have a bigger playoff role than Deron Williams.  My rationale, the Cavs are going the run the “JUMBO” lineup of LeBron, Derrick Williams, Kyle Korver, Richard Jefferson, and Channing Frye A LOT in the postseason.  With all players being 6 foot 7 or taller, the Cavs will use this lineup to start the second and fourth quarters to give Kyrie and Love rest.  If this lineup controls the game, it may keep Ky and Kev on the bench.  Similar to last year when the Cavs employed the “bench guys with LeBron” group (Shumpert, Dellevedova, Channing Frye, Richard Jefferson, and LeBron), the new group will give the Cavs a bunch when the opposition has their bench guys in.

Cory: I’m going to second Eli’s proclamation of Derrick Williams. Perhaps Tyronn Lue was holding back the Jumbo lineup of chaos for the playoffs and it will make it’s grand return while Kyrie and Love catch breathers at the opening of the second and fourth quarters. In the 39 minutes court time the lineup of James, Frye, Jefferson, Korver, and Derrick Williams saw this season, it yielded a wicked plus-35 net rating. If you missed David Wood’s Wood Shop article yesterday on how vicious this lineup is, give it a gander.

I’m specifically going with Williams because he’s kind of playing for his NBA life at the moment, and I think he’s going to give it his all.

Nate: J.R. Smith will be the biggest surprise. He’s been unbelievably inconsistent offensively, and an abject disaster defensively, but if there’s anyone on the team who takes their cues from LeBron, it’s Earl Joseph Smith the third. When LeBron locks in and gets serious, so will J.R. I’ve made no secret of the fact that I think J.R. and Co. are partying a lot on the road. And I’m sure his home time is tough as he continues to try to care for his premature daughter, Dakota. IMO, Bron gives him a talking to, he gets it together, and returns to 2016 playoffs form.

Carson: Derrick Williams. We more or less know who we’ll be seeing in the Cavs’ rotation for playoff time. Aside from the starters, we can expect healthy doses of Deron Williams, Channing Frye, Kyle Korver, Richard Jefferson and Iman Shumpert. I think (or at least, hope) that the playoffs see the return of the Cavs’ jumbo package–featuring LeBron, Korver, Jefferson, Frye and Williams–that devastated backup units for a stretch during the midseason. Derrick fits the profile of one of the most valuable assets in today’s NBA: a long wing who can guard multiple positions, play off the ball and not brick open threes. It will be hard for him to crack the rotation of more proven and trusted commodities, but for a team that is defensively challenged, D-Will 2.0 (or 1.0, whatever they’re calling him) can in theory provide valuable spot minutes for this Cavs team.

4. What first round playoff series do you think will provide the most fireworks?

Cory: The Jazz and Clippers series has the most potential for offseason ramifications of any first round series. The squads are about as evenly matched as an opening round series can be. The teams flashed identical regular season records (51-31). This incarnation of the Clippers has never gotten out of the second round together, and both Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and J.J. Redick  are due to become free agents in July. If they get knocked out in the first round two years in a row, I’d assume that Chris Paul will make a legacy decision in free agency and head to San Antonio to form a new big three.

This Jazz squad is kind of what I had hoped the young Cavs would grow into before The Return. They’ve built the team organically through the draft, and the players all accent one another. If they get bounced in the first round, Gordon Hayward could look to move closer to home in a less competitive conference perhaps as Paul George’s running mate, or his replacement.

Carson: In the East, I like the Raptors-Bucks matchup. The Raptors might be one of the more underappreciated teams that never seems to earn any respect or credit. While it may or may not be deserved, this Raps team has certainly underperformed in the past couple postseasons. Will a six-game Conference Finals against the Cavs be this team’s peak, or are there bigger and better things ahead for Toronto? On the Buck’s side, I think just about all of basketball is salivating at the idea of playoff Giannis doing his best John Wick impersonation (Oh, I KNOW you didn’t just set a dirty screen on my wombat…) . The Buck’s length and defense could keep this series very tight, and it will be fun to see how a tested playoff commodity fares against a burgeoning lower seed. 

In the West, I’ve got my sights set on the grindhouse thriller that is Spurs-Grizzlies. We’ve come to expect the always-immaculate Spurs to be on top of their game, but the grit-n-grind Grizzlies have consistently been one of the toughest playoff outs in recent memory. These two teams play elite defense, and while it might not be pretty, these games should come down to the wire. Both teams are extremely smart and disciplined, and will push you for 48 minutes. The Spurs have swept the Grizz in three playoff series during this rivalry, but basketball fans will never forget Memphis’ shocking first round upset of the top-seeded Spurs in 2011, and surely neither has San Antonio. The Grizz’s potential absence of the Grindfather, Tony Allen, may put a damper on the series, but there should still be more than enough fireworks, if fireworks = long, calculated possessions and disciplined play.

Nate: Raps/Bucks for sure. This is one of those weird series where the favored team doesn’t have the best player. Giannis Antetokounmpo could be the NBA’s best player within two years. Meanwhile, the Raptors have gone 8-2 to close the regular season and have Kyle Lowry back in the fold. They’ve integrated Serge Ibaka, and aren’t just good, they’re very good at all five starting positions with solid bench contributors. But the Bucks do have a secret weapon who’s bound to a Raptor suspended for at least one game.

Tom: I’m thinking Celtics / Bulls is the best chance we have at an 8 over 1 upset in a long time, if that constitutes fireworks.  The junkie in me is looking forward to the Grizz/Spurs.  Playoff Spurs are a bit of an enigma to me in that they often seem to lack that extra gear to deal with an athleticism deficiency.  Playoff Grizz are an enigma because they always seem to be terrifying and then get submarined by injuries.  Right on cue, Tony Allen is not expected to play in the 1st round.  Alas, I’ll be tuned into two of the most electrifying players of my basketball-viewing prime, Obi-Wan Ginobili and Vinsanity.  Both born in 1977, I’m hoping for a some playoff veteran savvy from the oldest and second oldest active players in the NBA.

Eli: Rockets-Thunder: there are so many storylines in the series with Harden being a former Thunder player, the MVP Race, and the analytics vs. old school battle.  With likely MVP Westbrook entering the playoffs with the triple-double record, the Thunder want the respect of Harden and the Rockets.  I forsee an intense series that will have HUGE stats and ultimately Harden winning the series but Westbrook winning the statistical battle (Now that I’ve predicted this, it’ll go 5 games to Houston).

5. What outcome do you foresee for every first round series?

Nate: 
Cavs over Indy in 5
Chicago over Boston in 6
Toronto over Milwaukee in 7
Washington over Atlanta in 6
Houston over OKC in 6
San Antonio over Memphis in 6
Utah over L.A. in 7
Assuming Kim Jong Un doesn’t nuke the west coast, Golden State over Portland in 5 (Dubs always lose game three).

Eli:
Golden State over Portland in 4
San Antonio over Memphis in 5
Houston over Oklahoma City in 6
Los Angeles Clippers over Utah in 6
Boston over Chicago in 6
Cleveland over Indiana in 5
Toronto over Milwaukee in 6
Washington over Atlanta in 6

Cory:

Golden State over Portland in 4
San Antonio over Memphis in 7
Houston over Oklahoma City in 5
Utah over Los Angeles Clippers in 7
Boston over Chicago in 7
Cleveland over Indiana in 4
Toronto over Milwaukee in 6
Washington over Atlanta in 6

Carson: 

Golden State over Portland in 4
San Antonio over Memphis in 7
Houston over Oklahoma City in 6
Los Angeles over Utah in 7
Boston over Chicago in 6
Cleveland over Indiana in 4
Toronto over Milwaukee in 6
Washington over Atlanta in 6

 Tom:

Golden State over Portland in 4
San Antonio over Memphis in 6
Oklahoma City over Houston in 7
Los Angeles over Utah in 5
Boston over Chicago in 7
Cleveland over Indiana in 5
Toronto over Milwaukee in 5
Washington over Atlanta in 7