Northwest Division Preview

[Editor’s Note: This is the second installment of our annual six part series of division previews. If you missed the Pacific Division Preview you can check it out right over here.]

Utah Jazz

There was a brief two year window where I hated the Utah Jazz more than any other team in sports, including the scratch off n’at Stillers and the Ratbirds from Wireville. I would often get into ESPN comment section throwdowns about the Jazz and volley back low blow barbs that Utah is such an insignificant state that they used to test nuclear weapons there. I hated them. I hated everything about them. I despised their colors if for no other reason than purple is ridiculous, and outside of Angus, a man shouldn’t wear purple for any reason. I hated that they kept the swank Jazz nickname 30 years after relocating from New Orleans. Like most Cavs, my intolerance for them them came from plucking Carlos Boozer away. A man has got to have a code, and Boozer showed that he doesn’t. I bought lower level Cavs/Jazz tickets at The Q in 2005 and 2006 just to have the opportunity to scream at Boozer in person for his flimflamming of a blind man.

My vitriol waned after the Cavs Eastern Conference emergence in the late aughts. After LeBron left us for a sunnier sky and Deron Williams forced his way to Brooklyn six months later, I felt a kinship of shared suffering with blond haired and blue eyed folks 1,500 miles away in the mountains.

I grew to respect their rebuild from afar. They never had as many premium draft picks as the Cavs, but they handled their rebuild infinitely better. Sure they didn’t hit on everything, but they hit on enough of them to build a compelling organic core that could one day become a contender. Six years after Williams dumped them, their home grown star Gordon Hayward left them as well, this time for his college sweetheart, clam chowder, and 400,000 people who can’t enunciate word bar, even though they spend half of their paychecks there. This won’t be a page one rewrite though, the Jazz’s program is still stocked with tantalizing talent, and they’ll retool rather than rebuild.

Additions: Ricky Rubio (Timberwolves), Thabo Sefolosha (Hawks), Jonas Jerebko (Celtics), Ekpe Udoh (Clippers), Donovan Mitchell (Draft), Tony Bradley (Draft)

Subtractions: Gordan Hayward, Trey Lyles

Storylines:

.@Daanteee out here teaching a spin class. 🌪#MACatUTA https://t.co/ZkqjBVhSrJ

— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) October 5, 2017

1.  How do they replace Hayward? Hayward paced the squad in points per game (21.9) and usage rate (27.6%). I anticipate Rodney Hood improving on his 12.7 points per game. There will also be more shots for long range sniper Joe Ingles who shot a sizzling 44% last season. My biggest reason for optimism with the Jazz is that Dante Exum will finally show why the they invested the fifth pick in the 2014 draft on him. He had to transition to a foreign country at 19 his first year. His sophomore campaign was cut short by a torn ACL in international play. He received sporadic playing time last year. He’s going to prove that his Summer League domination wasn’t just a fluke… And immediately after posting this, the news. dropped that Exum separated his shoulder and may be out for the season –  and if not will miss a big portion of it. Dante is unlucky.

2.  Will Rudy Gobert make the All-NBA First Team and threaten to lead the league in RPM? Gobert’s 6.02 DRPM paced all players last season, and he was eighth overall in RPM. With all of the easy oops that Rubio is going to serve the Stiffle Tower, I expect him to reach the summit of the analytics mountain .

3.  Will they be better than they were without Hayward?  They were already the best defensive team in the league allowing just 96.8 per game last season and a versatile defender in Rubio and then two more in Ekpe Udoh and Thabo Sefolosha.

Player I’d Love to Have:

The Cavs passed over Gobert twice in the 2013 draft for a pair of guys who are no longer in the league just four years later. In a related story, Chris Grant will never, ehhhhhhhhver be an NBA GM again.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

Jonas Jerebko if for no other reason than he was a pesky Celtic and he has a hipster meets “alt-right” haircut.

Prediction: 46-36

Vegas currently has the Jazz’s over/under at 38.5, and it’s in the running for my favorite preseason wager. I like the over, A LOT. Sure the Jazz lost their best player in Hayward. They won 53 games last year, and I think that their remaining nucleus takes a big step forward, Favors stays healthy, and that their deep rotation uses Gordon’s defection to unify them. (Again, written before Dante got hurt).

Oklahoma City Thunder

Presti got back his hot chair at the blackjack table again this offseason. The Pacers could have squeezed a better deal for Paul George from the Celtics, and according to reports, he was nearly dealt to our Cavs. At the last minute, Presti was able to land PG for Victor Oladipo, a slightly above average wing on a max contract, and a prospect who’s father’s shadow will always poison our perception of him in Domantas Sabonis.

A month and a half later, Presti hit 21 again. Carmelo Anthony’s value has been down for years, but obtaining him for price of Enes Kanter’s albatross contract, was another landslide win. That would be like Koby Altman landing Melo for Shump and cap filler. While the Thunder traded away much of the their depth in the deals, dumping Kanter’s contract was a victory in itself.

Will three ball dominant stars be a mess together? Probably. Will they be better than a year long campaign to stay relevant by having Russell Westbrook chase stats just to average a triple-double and win the MVP? Probably. I don’t see a gray area with this squad. It’s either going to work, and they’ll be a legitimate contender in the minefield that is the Western Conference, or they could look to get whatever they can for George at the trade deadline because it fails miserably.

Additions: Paul George (Pacers), Carmelo Anthony (Knicks), Patrick Patterson (Trail Blazers), Raymond Felton (Clippers)

Subtractions: Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Enes Kanter, Doug McDermott

Storylines:

1.  Are there enough basketballs to feed three shot hungry egos? Last season Carmelo Anthony and Paul George each goggled up a hearty 29% usage rate with their former mediocre squads. During Westbrook’s 2017 MVP run he channeled his inner Joey Chestnut and established a gluttonous record breaking 41.65% usage rate, smashing Kobe Bryant’s ball hog hallmark of 38.74% from his 2005-06 season. Will three only children be able learn how to share?

2. Can they compete with the Warriors? This will be a common storyline for any other wannabe contender in the league. The Warriors were built through terrific roster construction and luck. So was this Thunder squad. They appear to be frighteningly shallow, but a starting lineup of Westbrook, George, Anthony, Steven Adams and Andre Roberson is probably the most fearsome starting five on the left coast outside of that team by the bay. If a key Warrior gets hurt, this squad could push them to the limit or take them down in a series.

3. Can they keep it all together? There’s been an assumption that George with leave the Thunder empty handed and head to home to LA next July; however, Westbrook committing long term has to improve their chance of retaining George as well. It’s easy to bash a team for trading for a rental, but it’s also the franchises opportunity for a season-long recruiting campaign. Maybe George will like the simplicity of Oklahoma, and that the city’s low profile will make him focus on basketball and reaching his full potential. Maybe he’ll learn to love tractor pulls and chick fried steak, which is really just pounded out crumby steak that they deep fry and drown in gravy. During George’s seven year career he’s never been paired with a player close to Westbrook’s caliber, and it’s possible that he’ll realize that being in a good situation long term that’s just a two-hour flight away from LA is better than dealing with LaVar Ball and Buss family drama full-time.

Player I’d Love to Have:

I’ve resisted putting stars in these because it just doesn’t seem feasible, and it’s silly in a way. I’d want Paul George though. The near Cavalier could be the perfect compliment to LeBron James as he ages. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Thunder could struggle feeding the shots and egos to their three ball hungry stars, and that they could drastically underperform. The Cavs could offer a luxury tax friendly, but valuable long-term asset package of the Brooklyn pick, Cedi Osman and filler for the remainder of George’s rental. If the Thunder want a guy who Westbrook has played with and would love to run with again, the Cavs can help them reunite the 2008 UCLA Bruins squad in the middle of corn country.

Player I’d Hate to Have:

Raymond Felton. Felton could be my NBA food soulmate and he and I would be able to bs about hoops while gorging on a Louie C.K. bang bang tour (eating at a different restaurant for each course) buffet on East 4th and hit Lola for the beef cheek pirogies, Butcher and the Brewer for the bone marrow, Mabel for spareribs and fatty brisket, and then the ultimate savage meal of the roasted pigs head at Greenhouse Tavern. You really know that you’re eating an animal when you plug your fork into its skull and eat its face on a brioche bun. I wouldn’t want that dude waddling up and down the court for the Cavs though.

Prediction: 52-30

I think it works. The Thunder won 47 games letting Westbrook play hero ball for 35 minutes a night. Vegasinsider.com currently has them at an over/under of 52.5, and that about right, and I wouldn’t touch that action, but I like the under slightly more.

Denver Nuggets (JMay)

One of the more exciting teams to watch this season, the Denver Nuggets seem to be on the path to success. The Nuggets will be looking to better their 2016-17 season which ended 40-42 and just missed making the playoffs due to Lillard, McCollum, and the gang. Denver was another team this summer that didn’t sit idle, adding Paul Millsap to their already talented squad.

If you’ve been paying attention to dark horse candidates out in the Western Conference this summer, Denver might be a good bet. With a good mix of young talent and savvy veterans, the Nuggets will likely continue their scorching offensive production from last season. The addition of Millsap to their front court probably won’t help them improve on the defensive end (they were abysmal), but boy should they be fun to watch on offense.

The young talent on this team is a highlight that will make the Nuggets a must watch on League Pass. Their season will depend a lot on the progress made by young guns Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Jamal Murray, but I think it’s safe to say it should be exciting to watch these Nuggets try to compete with the juggernauts out west.

Additions: Tyler Lydon (draft), Paul Millsap (Atlanta), Torrey Craig (R), Monte Morris (R), Josh Childress (From nowhere)

Subtractions: Mike Miller, Danilo Gallinari

Storylines:

1. Just how good will Nikola Jokic get? The big man averaged 16.7 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists on 27.9 minutes per game. I expect to see an increased workload this season as he will be starting from day one and won’t have his game influenced by Nurkic. He was effective last year from behind the arc, shooting 32% and showed excellent court vision and passing skills. Jokic was truly a threat from all over the floor as he showed up on a bunch of the leader boards across the league with an impressive list of rankings. He was eighth in PER (26.3), fourth in TS% (.640), sixth in EFG% (.605), ninth in RB% (19.5), seventh in ORtg (125.7), and the list goes on. Not bad for a then 21-year-old. Seriously, this guy is good and only getting better. Look for even more improvement this season as the now 22-year-old begins to make his impact felt.

2. Will their defense improve enough to sustain a run into the playoffs? While the Denver Nuggets were one of the most talented offensive teams last year (their ORtg of 113.2 was good for fourth in the league), their defense was truly awful. That’s after managing to watch almost all 82 games of disgraceful defense the Cavs displayed last season. Denver’s DRtg was 112.7 and good enough for second to last and only beat out the Lakers because they were actively trying to tank for Ball. Millsap has had some good defensive seasons but he likely won’t be enough to fix Denver’s defensive woes.

3. How quickly can Paul Millsap mesh with the team and will he be enough to take down one of the four Western Conference Goliaths? I do believe Millsap will fit-in pretty quickly on the Nuggets. His skills complement an offense that is already used to having a good playmaker in the front court. But let’s be fair and level-headed here; he won’t be enough to take down any one of Houston, San Antonia, or Golden State. However, if the Paul-Melo experiment fails in OKC, or even is just not quite as good, the Nuggets are the Western Conference team to take them down.

Player I’d Love to Have: Aside from the untouchable Jokic, Gary Harris would be a great addition to this team. He comes up lacking on the defensive end but he is young and athletic and has shown a willingness to work on the weak parts of his game. If he can improve on the defensive end, he would be an excellent combo guard for the Cavs. He’s efficient from all over the floor, great in transition, and shot a very good 42% from three last season.

Player I’d Hate to Have: Wilson Chandler is a below average three point shooter and a horrible defensive player. He had hip surgery which kept him out the entirety of the 2015-16 season and is only getting older as he crests the 30 year mark. This team doesn’t need anymore wings who try to do too much with the ball and can’t play a lick of defense.

Prediction: 47-35

The Denver Nuggets are good and have the best home court advantage in the Association with Denver’s altitude. On offense they are blistering. Unfortunately, their inability to play defense even a little bit will keep them from truly challenging the top tier of their conference. They’ll improve; they might even knock off the Thunder if OKC struggles to play basketball with only one ball and one hoop to score on.

Portland Trail Blazers (JMay)

The Portland Trail Blazers are stuck in the strange limbo between really bad teams and really good teams. They are better than your average NBA team but they aren’t good enough to compete once they reach the playoffs. All of Damian Lillard’s scoring power is good enough to get them to the cannon fodder round in which they get eviscerated by one of Golden State, Houston, or San Antonio.

Since last February’s trade deadline, they managed to shed Allen Crabbe’s awful contract, as well as Mason Plumlee. They added Jusuf Nurkic and still have C.J. McCollum, but I’m still underwhelmed. Their notable off-season movement was to rid themselves of the exorbitant Crabbe for Andrew Nicholson who was promptly stretch waived. It doesn’t get more unexciting than that. Don’t get me wrong, I love Nurkic and McCollum, Dame can score with the best of them. It’s just not enough. Any team that pays Evan Turner $70 million over four years is a team that is destined for mediocrity. And that’s coming from a former Buckeye.

Additions: Zach Collins (Draft), Caleb Swanigan (Draft), C.J. Wilcox (Orlando), Archie Goodwin (Brooklyn), Isaiah Briscoe (R), Anthony Morrow (Chicago)

Subtractions: Festus Ezeli, Allen Crabbe, Tim Quarterman

Storylines:

1. How long before the Blazers give up on the Damian Lillard era? Everyone knows that Damian Lillard is one of the most talented scorers in the league. When watching him last season, it was like watching a mirror image of Kyrie without the handles. He can rain it down on his opponents but he gives back everything and more to his opponents on defense. As we saw here in Cleveland, it’s tough to build around a player like that. There were rumblings last season that Dame could be on the move. We’ll see this season if there is any smoke to that fire.

2. Can Jusuf Nurkic stay healthy? Before Nurkic came to the Blazers they were sporting a very unenthusiastic 23-32 record. After the acquisition, not only did their offensive and defensive ratings improve, but they also started to win again, going 14-6 when Nurkic wasn’t injured. Lillard lets too many guards into the paint with his lackluster defense. The Blazers need Nurkic to be manning the paint to have any level of sustained success.

3. Can Evan Turner be who the Blazers want him to be? Last year Turner got moved into a starting role and showed moderate levels of success. Coach Terry Stotts has been quoted stating that he felt Turner had “turned a corner” before breaking his hand. I loved Evan Turner in college. He was a lot of fun to watch for the Buckeyes. He just hasn’t really panned out to be much in the NBA. That didn’t stop Portland from giving him a four year $70 million dollar contract. For both parties’ sakes, I hope it works out.

Player I’d Love to Have: Not much needs to be said about C.J. McCollum. The 26-year-old averaged averaged 23 points last season and shot a remarkable 50% from three in the playoffs. He’s not a great defender but he’s certainly better than a few of the guards currently on the Cavs.

Player I’d Hate to Have: Damian Lillard is more of the same thing the Cavs are used to seeing in their backcourt. Incredible scoring, incredibly bad defense. Cleveland has that in spades and I’d rather not double down on that characteristic.

Prediction: 44-36

Having a full season of Nurkic should help Portland get over the 50% mark for wins but not by much. The Western Conference is more difficult than ever. They will likely need to pick up all the Eastern Conference wins they can get. The Blazers should be glad the NBA did away with the divisional playoff spots because with a division that includes Minnesota, Denver, OKC, and Utah, they wouldn’t stand a chance.

Minnesota Timberwolves (JMay)

Talk about an explosive summer. The Timberwolves made a big splash this year when they acquired Jimmy Butler for 10 cents on the dollar. While I’m sure Butler is absolutely thrilled to be under taskmaster Thibodeau again, he should still be looking to replicate his success he had in Chicago. The Timberpups have suddenly turned back into Timberwolves. They finally ditched PG Ricky Rubio in favor of the more talented scorer in Jeff Teague. The Wolves still have the polarizing Andrew Wiggins and the absolutely stellar Karl Anthony-Towns so the additions should vault them into playoff contention or higher.

If Tom Thibodeau can get this team to play the defense it’s capable of playing and rightly should be able to play, this iteration the Timberwolves should be the best since KG left. The league seems to be back and forth on Wiggins’s effectiveness. Jimmy Butler is overrated, and I was disappointed Rubio didn’t work out, but this team has the tools to make a deep run into the playoffs if they can blend well this season.

Additions: Justin Patton (Draft), Jimmy Butler (Chicago), Taj Gibson (Oklahoma City), Jeff Teague (Indiana), Jamal Crawford (Clippers), Anthony Brown (Orlando), Marcus Georges-Hunt (Orlando), Melo Trimble (R), Amile Jefferson (R), Aaron Brooks (Indiana)

Subtractions: Ricky Rubio, Jordan Hill, Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, Nikola Pekovic

Storylines:

1: How will Jimmy Butler fit into the new look Timberwolves? It’s safe to say Jimmy Butler will fit in fine with the Minnesota players. There was tension with Tom Thibodeau and the Bulls’ team that featured Butler, though. Players felt Thibs was working them too hard. Tensions rose. Eventually the Bulls moved on from Thibodeau. Butler might be familiar with good old Coach Thibs, but do they like each other? No one knows what that locker room was like but the guys on that team. Time will tell.

2: Can Andrew Wiggins turn the corner? Up to this point in Wiggins’s young career, he has essentially become a volume scorer with low efficiency and drastically overrated defense. While Wiggins routinely draws the toughest assignment on defense, he routinely fails to live up to the challenge. Wiggins undoubtedly has the physical tools to be spectacular on both ends of the floor and the league has been waiting for his coming out party. With Butler on the team, will Wiggins be able to grow carrying fewer responsibilities on both sides of the court, or is Drew destined to just score lots of points on lots of shots?

3: Can Tom Thibodeau get this team to play defense up to their full potential? Last season the Timberwolves were underwhelming on defense. With Wiggins and KAT plus one of the best defensive guards in the league in Rubio, expectations were mighty high considering Thibodeau’s dominant defensive teams of his Chicago days. Unfortunately, they never quite rounded into form and were unable to display the type of defense everyone expected them to play. Anthony-Towns was never the rim protector we wanted, Wiggins gave up shot after shot, and the Wolves defense was lackluster. If this team can turn that corner, and I think they will, they will be a beast unto themselves in the Western Conference.

Player I’d Love to Have: Karl Anthony-Towns would be the perfect pairing to put in the front court with Love. He has the tools to be an excellent rim protector while also being able to contain the pick-and-roll. He’s young and he’s a building block. Should LeBron leave next summer, KAT would be the piece we want to build our future around.

Player I’d Hate to Have: Anyone who still thinks the Cavs lost the Wiggins-Love trade is, as they say, trippin’. Wiggins isn’t yet and may never be the player he was touted to be. Consider me another skeptic. I just don’t think he’s ever going to become more than an inefficient scorer.

Predictions: 43-39

The Timberwolves will be good but they will take some time to gel. Unfortunately, in the bloodbath of the Western Conference, that time will come at a cost. I think the Wolves will squeak into the Western Conference playoffs this season but I expect big things in 2018.

**All statistics courtesy of basketball-reference.com