Thoughts On the Cavaliers’ Rotation

The Cleveland Cavaliers have been a bit of a mess to start the season, and there are a lot of reasons for it. Whether it’s been lack of effort, poor defense (due to that effort), injuries, or the growing pains of adding eight new players, things haven’t gone smoothly for the Wine and Gold. They’ve lost games to the Brooklyn Nets, New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, and Atlanta Hawks, and there has been discontent among both the players and the fans.

Another major issue has been finding an effective rotation. Due to the multitude of injuries, Cavaliers coach Tyronn Lue has already used six different starting lineups this season, and that doesn’t count the lineups he used in the preseason, when LeBron James was out with a sprained ankle. So far, none of the lineups has had the balance the Cavaliers need. Some have lacked shooting, while others haven’t been able to rebound the ball well enough. None of have worked on the defensive end, where the Cavs rank among the worst in the league. Even if the Cavaliers do find a lineup they like, it’ll soon be shaken up with the impending returns of Isaiah Thomas and Tristan Thompson (By the way, can we stop pretending that the absence of these players doesn’t matter? Thomas is coming off consecutive All-Star Appearances and was Second-Team All-NBA last season. Thompson is an elite offensive rebounder and role man who is one of the better big man in the league at switching on the perimeter defensively. These guys matter.). This leaves us to ponder, what should the Cavaliers’ rotation look like when everyone is healthy? What is the best balance? Which players fit together best?

To figure out the best rotation, we’re going to break down the Cleveland Cavaliers, player by player, to see who deserves minutes, as well as which players fit together well, to determine the best possible rotation with the current roster.

Not Happening

Obviously, two-way players John Holland and London Perrantes aren’t figuring into this equation. Jose Calderon is also out (I wonder who’s more frustrated, Cavalier fans who watched their team get rid of Richard Jefferson and keep Calderon, or Denver Nuggets fans, whose team cut a steady (and needed) backup point guard in Jameer Nelson for a player who can’t get on the court in Jefferson?). Despite the desires of many fans, Ante Zizic and Cedi Osman are also unlikely to see much action on this veteran team. For better or worse, Lue is a players’ coach who tends to stick with his veterans.

On The Fringe

Channing Frye has had some run here and there, but even with Thompson out, he hasn’t been able to find a regular spot in the rotation. At this point, Frye seems to be a larger version of James Jones. He’s a great shooter and locker room guy, but his defensive issues seem to be keeping him from a real role in the rotation. There’s been a lot of speculation that Iman Shumpert will lose his spot in the rotation when Thomas returns. While Shumpert has played well to start the year, we’ve seen him do this for stretches in the past before falling off drastically. Still, Shumpert has played far better basketball than Derrick Rose, who has been both injury-prone and ineffective during his time with the Cavaliers. With Dwyane Wade proving to be a fairly effective ball handler off the bench, is there any reason to play Rose consistent minutes when Thomas returns? He’s already proven to be a poor fit with Wade, and his lack of defense, passing, and shooting make him an awkward fit with Thomas and James. At this point, Rose is what he is, a former star who never developed any role player skills. His ability to get to the rim can be useful, but there’s no reason he should get the ball enough to attack the basket consistently when everyone is healthy. Rose will likely stay in the rotation for a bit, but Lue has already shown a willingness to make tough choices come playoff time. While many have speculated that Jeff Green would lose his rotation spot sooner than later, Green has been quite effective so far. This may be the role for him, as the Cavaliers don’t rely on his offense as much as his former teams did, yet can still ride his hot streaks when they come. He also has to create less for himself than ever before, and his confidence seems to be growing with each game as he is used in more favorable matchups than he has ever had in his career.

Rotation Locks

This leaves James, Wade, Thomas, Thompson, J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, Kyle Korver, Jae Crowder, and Green as the nine players likely to receive minutes in Lue’s rotation. A tenth man will probably see some action—at least until playoff time—but who that is could vary based on matchups. Shumpert is the likely front runner if he continues his current play, but he’s by no means a lock. Rose and Frye will also get some run. Now we are down to arguably the most overrated question in basketball; who will start?

Starters

Obviously James and Love are locks to start, as is Thomas as long as he proves to be healthy and effective. Even if he’s 100%, Thomas likely won’t approach his numbers from last season with the Boston Celtics simply due to having the ball in his hands less often, but he should still be a very good player, which would make him an enormous upgrade over what Rose has given the Cavaliers so far. While Thomas’s shooting would allow for Wade to move back into the starting rotation at shooting guard, he’s been more valuable as the backup point guard. Wade would also have the ball in his hands less if most of his minutes came with the starters, limiting his usefulness. Additionally, Thomas and Wade would present a weaker defensive back court than the combinations of Thomas and Smith or Wade and Korver. That balance and the smart money says that Smith remains the starter.

This leaves us with the final starting spot, which comes down to Thompson and Crowder. Crowder has been a bit of a disappointment on both ends of the floor to start the season, but there’s no way the Cavaliers will give up on him. While his 39.8% shooting from deep last season may end up being a bit of a fluke, there’s still a good chance that Crowder settles in at around league average (35%) from deep. The second half of Saturday night’s game against the Mavericks showed how effective he could be when cutting to the basket and crashing the boards, skills this team needs from him just as much as his outside shooting. While he’s never quite been a lock down defender, Crowder is still the Cavaliers’ best defensive wing outside of a locked in LeBron James. A lot of his defensive issues seem to be based more on learning new schemes and overextending himself to compensate for his teammates’ poor defensive effort than any sort of significant slippage on Crowder’s part. He simply doesn’t have defenders like Avery Bradley, Al Horford, and even Amir Johnson on the floor with him anymore. The Cavaliers have also played better with Crowder as a starter than with him coming off the bench, and it would be totally understandable if they kept him in that role.

Still, it seems more likely that Thompson will return to the starting rotation once he is fully healthy. The Cavaliers have missed Thompson’s rebounding, and starting him means that Love doesn’t have to spend quite as much time banging with opposing centers. Since Love can move to center when Thompson is out the two players can essentially serve as each other’s backups, keeping an elite rebounder on the floor at all times, while effectively managing both players’ minutes. This is essential as the Cavaliers struggle on the boards without one of Thompson or Love on the court. Green, James, and possibly Crowder will soak up the rest of the minutes at power forward, which means the Cavaliers don’t need to play any other true big men. A starting lineup of Thomas, Smith, James, Love, and Thompson can also play the way the same effective style the starters have the last few years, with Thomas replacing Kyrie Irving. This allows Wade to play both guard positions, Korver to play at either wing spot, and Crowder to defend more perimeter players since he will likely spend most of his time alongside two of Green, James, Love, or Thompson. One could even make the case that the Cavs should start Crowder at shooting guard, but having Smith and Korver come off the bench together seems a bit redundant and would negatively impact the spacing of the starting lineup. This way, there is always at least one high-volume outside shooter on the wing for the Cavaliers.

The key to have an effective rotation is making sure that the players who are on the court together both fit well and have the best possible combination of offense and defense that a team can give. A starting lineup of Thomas, Smith, James, Love and Thompson, with Wade, Korver, Crowder, and Green coming off the bench allows the Cavaliers to spread out their shooting, ball handling, and defense, while still allowing flexibility for different matchups. Still, this may not be the way the Cavaliers see things, and it will be interesting to see what choices the Cavaliers make for their rotation and how effective the choices wind up being.