From Distance: Breaking Faces and Rotations
2018-03-30Four point play….
1. While I, like most NBA fans, am incredibly disappointed that Joel Embiid is out for the next two to four weeks due to an orbital fracture, there is a level of dark humor to be enjoyed.
Poor Markelle Fultz has been the target of much scrutiny during his strange rookie campaign. His case of “the yips“, brought on by his mystical shoulder injury combined with Jayson Tatum’s success in Boston has understandably made Fultz ripe for criticism.
After a miserable season, the young man finally made it back to the court and what happened? He broke the face of “The Process.” Sheesh.
That is rough all around. If I’m a Philly fan, Fultz sits somewhere between a 6 and an 8 on the Philly Love-Hate index. Rocky, of course comes in at number 1 with the 10 spot belonging to the Dallas Cowboys.
Fultz may prove to be a good NBA player. He might supplant Anthony Bennett as the worst number one overall pick in recent memory. We don’t know yet. Regardless of ultimate outcome, he has already made a huge impact on this current NBA season.
Had Fultz not been out, I doubt the Sixers would have enjoyed such a successful campaign. Rookies of his ilk rarely contribute to winning despite the occasional talent flash of the future. His unavailability allowed the Sixers to play solid veterans around their two young superstars.
Ben Simmons didn’t have to share point guard duties with another rookie. T.J. McConnell had a chance to siege his NBA destiny with heady and skillful play.
Had Fultz been in the rotation for the whole season, the Sixers would likely be competing for the seventh or eighth seed instead of pushing the Cavaliers for the third spot. Philly coach Brett Brown was liberated of having had to play a guy “for the future”. Until this week.
Fultz’s had a promising first game. What could go wrong? Ya know, other than potentially destroying Philly’s chance of getting out of the first round by accidentally headbutting a teammate on what should have been a routine dribble handoff? Impact player indeed.
Let me be clear. I don’t mean to pile on Fultz. It would just be really difficult not to hate the dude right now as a Sixers fan. Then again, this could end up working out in his favor. Someone couldn’t have written the first part of his potential redemption story more perfectly. If the kid goes on to great things, this first chapter is going to be a beautiful setup.
2. Also in a new chapter of his career is Jordan Clarkson, the Cavalier. It isn’t often that the writers here at Cavs: The Blog disagree rather vehemently, but trenches are currently being dug in our offices over Mr. Clarkson.
After trying to give the young man the benefit of the doubt post trade, I am decidedly not a fan of the Jordan Clarkson experience. It is clear that Jordan has great confidence, a varied and solid skill-set, and slightly above average athleticism. He can get buckets in a variety of ways. None of that is overlooked.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t shown an ability to consistently harness those skills into positive basketball action. Over the years, Cavs fans have grown accustomed to over-dribbling chuckers.
We have gotten use to defending or abhorring the likes of Jarrett Jack, Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert. Only Kyrie had the otherworldly talent to warrant such abject ball-stoppage.
It was frustrating to watch Kyrie consistently stop good offensive flow in order to establish his triple threat position. We consistently lamented Irving’s reluctance to make simple ball swings without hesitation.
Yet, when it came down to it, Uncle Drew was a straight magician with the rock. Even playing less than efficiently, he was able to be a positive offensive player. Still, he was never as positive in the regular season as he should have been.
Clarkson is more effective than Jack or Shump, but nowhere near the level of Kyrie. His talent and skill-set are impressive, but in order to be a legitimately good player, Clarkson needs a software overhaul.
I don’t see it happening. He’s 25 years old. Sure, he has plenty of time to make drastic changes to his game, but I don’t have great confidence that his entire mental approach is going be altered in such a fashion. I would be more inclined to assume that he is what he is.
3. With that in mind, many people believe that a team needs a few high variance players to reach an ultimate peak.
The idea goes something like this:
“The Warriors are so good at full strength that the only way you have a chance to beat them is by having some random microwave guy go crazy. You gotta steal a game!”
Yeah, maybe. Or maybe surrounding the best player in the world with guys who consistently make the right basketball play, every possession over the course of a seven games series would actually be a far better plan of attack.
When has LeBron been surrounded by guys that don’t mess up AND can shoot? Looking back at the 2015 Finals, LeBron did wonders with a squad that played smart hard ball. Even Shump was more or less locked in that year. I give Blatt the credit for that, but I digress.
Of course, that team couldn’t shoot. LeBron played heavy minutes with Mozgov, Thompson, Dellavedova, and Shump. Seriously, think about that for a moment. That team was up 2-1 with Delly as the only decent three point threat.
Now let’s give LeBron guys who understand team defense, are consistent in their strategy, don’t get caught up in moment, and can shoot the rock.
How about we let the only variance be whether good, open, three point shots fall or not, and/or whether the opposing squad has the patience to make the extra pass on every possession.
My nine man playoff rotation:
4. Honestly, I’d be fine if I didn’t see another minute from anyone else. There is already enough shooting, play-making and smarts with the above guys to win the East without a problem.
Osman and James can be moved to the backcourt or frontcourt as necessary. Let both Rodney Hood and Cedi handle more in PnR. Both, especially Hood, are being underused as creators. Every 15 dribble mid-range pull-up from Clarkson takes the ball out of these guys’ hands.
But what about Clarkson, Green, and J.R.?
Of the three, I still believe most in Smith. His playoff production has been far more consistent than his regular season play in recent years. Opposing teams still respect his three point shot, even when it isn’t falling. It wouldn’t be a travesty to let him roll.
As a small ball five, Jeff Green can be useful in certain match-ups. Nevertheless, he is too easy to guard for the opponents. Any three point shot attempted by Green in the playoffs is a win for the opposing team.
Returning to Jordan. I don’t trust him. He plays like he is Russell Westbrook. We have seen how effective that is in the postseason. Subtract 60 percent of the talent and you are left with a guy who can just as easily ball-hog a team out of a series as into one. The Warriors would welcome that.
My nine guy rotation above features zero players who aren’t mentally locked in both strategically and effort wise. They make open shots and rotate properly on defense. Everyone but Zizic can hit a three with regularity.
I admit Green, J.R. and Clarkson look much cooler at their best freewheeling best. Unfortunately, they frequently take more off the table as they put on the table.
What do you all think? Are you on the high-ceiling Clarkson train with Nate and Evil Genius, or do you want to sit next to me on high-floor island?
Fantastic piece, Ben. I didn’t get to read it till today, but really enjoyed it. So many of the Cavs problems in the regular season revolve around how bad their coaching is and the lack of accountability for players. Hopefully that improves in the playoffs, but ultimately, I think coaching, whether it be bad schemes, bad instruction, or bad rotations will be their undoing. Hopefully some really good coach inherits a great basketball team next summer. Or they figure it out and win it all again…
I’m in Ben’s trench for the most part. It doesn’t really matter what anyone wants, though, there is virtually zero doubt that Green will be playing big minutes in the playoffs. If the Cavs are fortunate enough to get to the Finals and face GS again, I have zero doubt that the coaching staff’s intention is to use Green as primary defender on Durant. Clarkson is what he is, but I don’t really want to see him in imortant moments in important games. I think Clarkson needs to reinvent his game…will he? Doubtful. The only thing I’m more sure of… Read more »
Seriously, how are so many people (as in more than 1 person) putting Zizic in their playoff rotation. The guy cannot keep up with playoff caliber offenses at all on the defensive end. He’s nice for changeup and some solid rim runs — and when you’re desperate for size and rebounding because all your other bigs are injured — but that’s about it at the moment. That said, can’t help but be impressed by how much better he got in the G-league this year. A full season of playing against NBA talent could take him up another level next year.
Starting lineup:
Hill
KK
LBJ
Love
Nance
Second unit:
Jose
Clarkson
Hood
Green
Zz
You are right. Calderon definitely needs to run point when Clarkson is in without lbj.
Swap KK for Hood for Length and setting the tone on D out of the gate, with KK the sharp shooter for the second line and when needed. I play an uncommon 12 in the playoffs swapping nance, green, cedi, and in the 4th quarter LeBron on K.D… harassing him… wearing him down after a though western conference series. Same tactic on a frail Step. Hill, J..R, make him work until the King can take over with the best 5 for match up ball in the final 5 mins. LeBron’s greatest accomplishment can be to win again over the super… Read more »
I guess the cavs finally “FREE’D OKRA “–10 day contract / expired —–GOING TO MISS YOU ‘OKRA “
a real question I guess would be —–have the cavs as an ENTIRE TEAM / UNIT —–really been locked in ALL 4 qtrs. of a game this year defensively——I think/ hope that is to come playoff time —if they do I believe their defense could be pretty damn good !!
To those hoping to give Green zero minutes: who are you suggesting will guard Kevin Durant?
One person I’d like to see the Cavs trade for who could defend Durant for extended minutes is Utah’s Jae Crowder. Wait, . . . what?
Crowder was never going to be able to guard KD anyway. KD has like 6 inches on him and Crowder isn’t Tony Allen physical or anything on defense. His rotations were atrocious this year also, but might have gotten better. Green actually did a decent job on KD one on one when they played this year, but he doesn’t get after loose balls or rebounds and much like JR, he’s always losing shooters and cutters. Personally, I think if they would have given Cedi consistent minutes all year, he’d already be giving them way more than Green is.
Guys who have a shot vs Durant: LBJ, Green, Hood, Cedi. Hill & JR for a different look but could be too small. As long as we don’t double often when he posts.
I think you’re living more on Fantasy Island with your playoff rotation, Ben… There’s absolutely no way Lue/Drew doesn’t play all three of the guys you’d leave out… As long as Green isn’t chucking threes, he’s been one of the better Cavs on the floor… He’s got enough length and mobility to guard wings (he did a nice job on DeRozan last week), even though he struggles with 4s and 5s… I wish he would rebound more, but he does shoot really well from the line, and can be really useful when attacking the rack. JR still has the ability… Read more »
I suspect any minutes Zizic would get are going to TT unfortunately.
I agree that there is no way that the coaching staff plays my lineups. Unfortunately, it is a fantasy. Though, it shouldn’t need to be. If Clarkson only shoots open shoots, and creates offense quickly without going into black hole mode, he can be functional on that end. His defense and fundamental floor game is still severely lacking. Green is fine against certain players as a one on one defender, but he is not a good team defender. In 2018, there is no way to hide a guy who can’t consistently nail defensive rotations. You can’t really play face up… Read more »
The difference with Tony Allen is that he was an all time great individual defender AND team defender.
FWIW, if I had to rank our roster:
1 = James; 2 = Love; 3 = Korver; 4 = Hill; 5 = Nance (that would be my 5 starters); 6 = JR; 7 = Hood; 8 = Clarkson; 9 = Calderon; 10 = Green; 11 = Osman; 12 = Zizic; 13 = Thompson.
My Playoff Lineups:
Starters- Bron, Love, Hill, Nance, Korver
2nd String- Clarkson, JR, Hood, Zizic, Green
Spot/Situational Minutes- Calderon, TT, Cedi
Short Leash- Clarkson, Green
My thoughts almost exactly.
I would give a 2nd unit with Jose at PG , Clarkson at the 2, Hood/JR at the 3, Green at 4 + Zizic some run. Could also small ball it with Green at the 5, both Hood & JR at forward.
Short leashes: JR, Clarkson, Green, Zizic, Calderon (if exploited defensively).
Yeah I think Calderon needs to play point in the second unit if just to limit Clarkson from becoming a black hole.
A little worried about Calderon’s longevity/stamina in the Playoffs. He’s been great/effective when called upon in spots and I think it’s partly because we’ve used him sparingly and he’s been able to go all out when he’s on the court. In general, when LeBron sits, we need scorers to score sprinkled with a little rim protection…
I mean you won’t need more than 10 mpg I think. Additionally, playoff games have a lot more time in between them unless series go to 6-7 games. Considering Clarkson will probably play 20-25 mpg and around 10-15 of those will likely be with LBJ, that should keep Calderon fresh.
High floor island for me.
Though I would note the following:
1) Nance has not made a 3 as a Cav.
2) With better coaching & if held accountable, JR, Green, & Clarkson would make less dumb plays. JR & Green have shown they can not chuck it for long stretches.
For me, I think out greatest advantage is we have 12 guys who can really play + TT.
I would play the high floor guys the most & supplement them with the 3 high variance guys. If they get hot, ride it out. If not, go with the others.
Clarkson’s ceiling is meh, but he should start making better decisions if he stays in a winning environment, and that’s half the battle for a guy like him. It would also help if he got put into a role that plays to his strengths. He’s a great catch and shoot guy from all over the floor, moves around well, can finish at the rim and still shoots a high percentage after 1-2 dribbles. Those are all Danny Green qualities, plus he is also at creating space off the dribble, and I don’t think it would be a huge stretch for… Read more »
I think the word “IF ” IS A VERY VITAL WORD —‘IF ” swish can be consistent / return to 2016 form —–“IF Clarkson can play under control ……….”IF” t.t. is healthy/ over his ‘Kardashian curse “—–“IF”–green can be “good green ” consistently …………I like cedi/ but him being off so long has stunted his growth –not sure if he is ready for BIG minutes …..I think at times you can play ANTE vs the dubs —–definitely against EASTERN conference teams ……..hoping HOOD hits a streak of games BEFORE the playoffs where his stroke is pure and confident —few 20+… Read more »
Maybe Zizc can play spot minutes against Zaza and Bell lineups. Since Pachulia starts, he won’t likely, he won’t likely get many minutes against him. Who am I kidding? He will likely be glued to the bench in favor of TT.
I am skeptical that JR isn’t just done. We will see. Green can be a decent mobile and physical defender on occasion. Though he isn’t a great defender, he has the potential to make some plays and has at least an athletic chance to guard some guys that no one else on the cavs save maybe LBJ can. Nance is mobile, but not Durant mobile. Let’s be real. The playoffs are a whole different animal than the regular season for rookies. Cliche, but true in general. You won’t likely be able to play Zizic at all against GS. Cedi is… Read more »
Watch slow-mos of Cavs defensive breakdowns and you’ll often see Jeff Green discombobulated in rotations and ball awareness. I hope he barely sees action in the playoffs.
Yeah, I don’t really want much of him. If it is between him and TT though…and I don’t think Zizic will be playable against GS.
He did a nice job recently against DeRozan…
let me go have a few beers / mull it over / and get back with you—–great write up as usual —!!!—————let me throw this at everyone—–is “the mighty Quinn ” having success with the dubs –due to “having finally matured as a player “—-getting the chance at solid minutes ——-finally -with a “professional” coaching staff / system that knows how to evaluate / coach talent ——just a good run right now—–scouting report/ teams will adjust / catch up to him—ALL THE ABOVE —/ SOME OF THE ABOVE —/ NONE OF THE ABOVE —–just curious on your thoughts—“did the cavs… Read more »