Five on Five: 2018 Free Agency Edition

As Decision 3.0 arrives, how are you feeling? Where is your stress level?

Excl – Surprisingly, my stress levels this time around are pretty low. Winning the title softens the blow, but I’m resigned to the fact that the franchise is handcuffed on the immediate improvement front. I’d prefer for LeBron to stay and cement his legacy Cleveland’s greatest athlete of all-time, but if he wants to bolt and lose to the Warriors elsewhere, he’s just hurting his own image.

Last season’s eye-popping stats aside, I think people are looking over the fact that he’ll be 34 in December and he has a ton of miles on his body. He could easily be an ACL tear, or a back injury away from being a contract albatross to whomever signs him longterm.

Mike – I’m mostly resigned to LeBron leaving, but acceptance isn’t easy. I’m upset with the Cavs for screwing up the Kyrie Irving trade, upset with LeBron for not allowing the franchise to build for the long-term, and upset with the impending remarks about Cleveland that will undoubtedly be made. My stress level fluctuates, but the thing that stresses me out the most is the fact that I have no faith in Dan Gilbert to provide the structure that the team will need to have a successful rebuild.

Nate: Annoyed. But pretty much everything annoys me these days. I’m annoyed that Cedi lit it up in international play yesterday. The ignorant among us would say he wouldn’t have made a difference, but again, the Cavs gave run to arguably the NBA’s worst regular season player (Rodney Hood, who was last in the NBA in RPM for players averaging over 25 minutes per game), and Jordan Clarkson who had arguably the worst NBA finals of all time. I’m annoyed at these divas who taunt fanbases with their “will he or won’t he?” free agency teases (yes, that includes you, Mr. James). I’m annoyed at the nonstop click trolling machine of basketball media. My stress level could be described as “agitated,” but that has more to do with the state of the world than basketball.

David – My stress level is really low. We won a title.  We won a freaking title. Again, the Cavs won a title, and they were the first Cleveland team to do so in a super long time. Even before they won the title, I was a fan. And, that’s the thing, I’m not a LeBron fan. I’m a Cavs fan. LeBron didn’t have the block. The shot. Or, the stop. The Cavs had those moments. If he leaves, he leaves. 

https://twitter.com/LullOnSports/status/485848038536413184?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E485848038536413184&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbnation.com%2Flookit%2F2014%2F7%2F6%2F5875299%2Finternet-freaks-out-over-cavaliers-owners-plane-flying-to-florida

“. @LullOnSports:Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is currently en route to south Florida.” I am? Sorry folks but enjoying weather in my backyard today

— Dan Gilbert (@cavsdan) July 6, 2014

Cory – I definitely won’t barf coffee bile at work like I did eight years ago, and I don’t anticipate that I’ll be researching if the color code #870038 matches our road jerseys, or that I’ll be tracking private jets on flightware.com like I pathetically did four years ago. This is the third act of LeBron’s ego endorphin trilogy. Remember Godfather III, remember how horrible Sophia Coppola was, and that creepy plot line where cousins get it on? These things don’t end well.

I honestly won’t be upset if he leaves. I’ll even root for him against the Warriors. I could probably rattle off ten reasons why I’m okay with LeBron leaving, but the gold (color code: #ffbb42) reason is that I think his cost will outweigh his value in the near future. There’s not much data for NBA preps to pros, but Kevin Garnett and Kobe Bryant broke down at the ages 36, and 34. For all of Kobe’s influence on the Lakers, he never had close the stranglehold LeBron does on the Cavs. within the next two seasons, LeBron’s cost will drastically outweigh his value.

If LeBron stays, what is your next realistic move you’d make as GM?

Nate – If I had Dan Gilbert’s checkbook, I’d probably talk to Ty Lue about moving into a “president of basketball operations,” non coaching position (more ceremonial than anything). Then I’d hire Becky Hammon, Ettore Messina, or throw crazy money at Ron Adams. Then, I’m taking on long term money to grab decent players other teams don’t want anymore and dumping Clarkson with it.  JR, Hill, and Perk will find their contracts in demand as teams try to trim the books for next summer. Delly/Bledsoe, Bazemore/Dedmon, Batum/Walker… Those are all deals I’d explore. There are lots of decent overpaid role players out there.

Excl – Fire Lue and replace him with a coach who might actually bring out the best in his team. One interesting possibility is Ettore Messina. He’s basically David Blatt, but with four years of experience as an assistant under Greg Popovich. When Pop took time off after his wife’s passing, Messina took over and did something that neither Lue or Pop was able to do this year—beat the Warriors.

Mike – If LeBron stays, even on a 1+1 deal, that gives the Cavaliers another year to prove that he should finish the rest of his career here. While it’s been frustrating to see the Cavaliers try to contend without a long-term plan, that doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision. When you have the best player on the planet, you need to maximize every single season he is a part of your organization. Because of that, I’d see what the Cavs could do to improve their roster for next season. Trade Collin Sexton, JR Smith, and George Hill for Kemba Walker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Marvin Williams. That move saves the Hornets roughly $30 million in the 2019-2020 season, and gives them a young building block in Sexton. Meanwhile the Cavaliers get another All-Star and offensive creator in Walker, as well as a pair of versatile defenders in Kidd-Gilchrist and Williams (who is a good shooter from beyond the arc as well). A lineup of Walker, Kidd-Gilchrist, James, Love, and Larry Nance Jr. with Williams, Kyle Korver, Tristan Thompson, and Cedi Osman coming off the bench could potentially have a nice balance on both ends of the floor.

David – The next realistic move is sending J.R. Smith, Rodney Hood, Tristan Thompson, or Jordan Clarkson somewhere else for a true contributor.  It’s gonna be difficult, but they’re expirings, young guys, or maybe able to re-signed and traded at a decent price guys in Hood’s case. Kevin Love seems like the obvious guy to be traded away, but he isn’t valued enough to get anyone better. The Cavs don’t have anyone with a decent money to skill ratio to send away with him either to net a better player.

Cory –  That of course depends on whether he commits to the Cavs longterm for the first time since 2006 when he inked a three-year, $60 million extension. If you are just now waking up from a twelve-year coma, you’ve missed a lot, and it got really dark there in the middle.

If LeBron commits for four or five years, I would immediately start working the phones to see if I could get any value out of J.R. Smith, and George Hill’s basically expiring contracts to a team looking to open up cap space for the 2019 offseason. It sounds ridiculous, but would the Wolves jettison Andrew Wiggins contract to open up room for Jimmy Butler, and to dodge the massive luxury tax payments they are eyeballing in two years. While the asset war chest has been replaced by an asset fanny pack, Dan Gilbert’s willingness to spend is an advantage the Cavs have over 25 teams in the league.

If LeBron leaves, what is your next realistic move as GM?

Excl – Fire Lue and replace him with David Blatt. I’m still curious what Blatt could do with a roster of younger players. That’s why he was hired originally, but then LeBron came back, and Blatt had to adapt on the fly from a mentoring role, to ego maintenance.

On the roster side, the answer is to trade whoever you can to inject more youth into the roster. Back in 2016, we hitched our wagon to LeBron, Kyrie, Love, Tristian, Shump and J.R., and it’s come back to bite us now. Tristan and J.R. are basically untradable at this point. Kyrie already left, and the timing of the trade forced us to take the Celtics deal. LeBron could bolt for no return. Our best hope is that there’s a general manager out there who thinks that Love could put them over the top.

Mike – I’d see what young players are available around the league via a trade. Would Charlotte trade Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and/or Malik Monk for salary relief? Would the Kings trade some of their youngsters for some veterans as they are motivated to win this season? I’d bet against this one, but would the Wizards be interested in an Otto Porter for Kevin Love deal? Draft picks are great, but young players on controlled salaries are arguably even better.

.@cediosman (20pts) was a man on a mission as @TBF 🇹🇷 advance to the 2nd round 🔥! #FIBAWC #ThisIsMyHouse pic.twitter.com/7OsgjIYZln

— FIBA Basketball World Cup (@FIBAWC) June 28, 2018

David – I keep the team exactly the same. The Cavs can compete for a playoff spot with Love, Sexton, Cedi, Zizic, and Nance. It will be all hustle and ugly, but it’s the right thing to do. It’s always better to have young guys that are playing for something, even if it’s a long shot, instead of roasting away in tanking hell where bad habits hang out in the gym all day drinking soda and updating their SoundCloud pages.

Nate: I’m not trading Love. At least not right away. Love’s value has never been lower. He needs a solid three months of being featured before shipping him to a playoff team for salary and lots of young assets. San Antonio will have some of those assets if they move Kawhi to L.A. And there’s no point in tanking anyway since the Cavs don’t have their own pick next year. Kyle Korver can probably be moved and slide into someone’s exception, and if not, he’s an excellent shooting coach. As I mentioned before, Hill, JR, and Perk will have value for a team trying to shed salary for 2019-2020, moving them for young assets will happen. I’m probably stretch paying Clarkson and only giving Rodney Hood a qualifying offer. They’ll pay him something stupid to suck though.

Cory – I’ll probably have ten shots of Jameson, not because of LeBron going to LA, but because it’s Two Dollar Tuesday at the townie bar on my way home from babysitting Baby Boomers. If LeBron bolts, I wouldn’t do anything drastic at first, other than hiring Craig Ferguson to reprise his role of Mr. Wick from the Drew Carey show and having Ty Lue pick a hand.

After firing Lue, and hopefully finding an innovative coach, I’d start rummaging through every teams dumpster to hopefully find an underperforming player still on his rookie deal that could be had for nothing. There’s a lengthy list of players  who struggled with their first team, and later on finding success elsewhere like Victor Oladipo did this past season. How about a flyer on Dante Exum? His career has been derailed by injuries, but none of them are related, and he had his moments last season. He’s still got some athleticism, and his length is appealing.

LeBron excluded, what do you anticipate to be the most meaningful move in free agency?

Excl – Paul George. He could cash in on a much larger max deal than the Lakers can offer him. Unlike LeBron, he doesn’t have a billion dollar Nike deal that he can fall back on. George staying in OKC might actually convince LeBron to stay in Cleveland for at least one more year.

Nate – Whoever Golden State signs. If they can get enough veterans to solve their depth problem, LeBron, Kawhi, or whomever can’t beat them because whatever team they’re on won’t have enough depth and shooting. The Dubs were vulnerable due to lack of depth/injuries. They won’t make the same mistake this year. Look for the Dubs to try to grab Seth Curry who was very good before his injury, to solve their backup point guard problem. Look for them to get Kyle O’Quinn on a midlevel to solve their “solid starting center” problem. Then, they’ll add lots of shooting. They’ll be like an anti Altman/Gilbert (who’ve done nothing but shed shooting). I could even see the Cavs trading Kyle Korver there if LeBron leaves. The Lakers will have to strip their team so bare, that it won’t matter who they add, they just won’t have the guns to keep up with Houston or Golden State. LeBron won’t even have the juice to get to the finals (if he goes).

Mike – I think the most meaningful move won’t involve a free agent at all, but rather where the Spurs trade Kawhi Leonard. It’s nearly impossible to see Leonard starting next season in San Antonio, and whichever team he lands with will be getting (when healthy) one of the top five players in the NBA, as well as it’s best perimeter defender. Leonard is one of the few players in this league who can truly change the status of the team he’s on.

David – Wherever Kawhi ends up will be the most important move this summer. Big name guys from a stacked contender, such as Boston, may be moved for him, and he will still most likely end up making them better in the long run. Or, he could go to a team such such as th Lakers and essentially gut the team of anyone worthwhile. It would be like when Melo forced a trade to the Knicks, instead of waiting a year to get signed with cap space and getting to play on a much better team. That move set the Knicks back in too many ways to count. This possible move will also answer a question I never thought I’d wonder about Leonard, “does he care about winning or does he care about popularity.”

Cory – The answer is Kawhi, but with the still murky condition of his right quad injury, and my belief that Pop and Buford won’t deal him to the Lakers, I’ll go with Paul George. While George is probably the third best player who could be on the move, he’s the one who could determine where other chips fall. If he stays in OKC, I can’t see how LeBron would go to the Lakers. If LeBron doesn’t go to the Lakers, do they settle for a brand name like Boogie, or do they wait a year for Kawhi to be a free agent?

What is your nuclear outcome for the Cavs?

Excl – The worst case is that LeBron leaves, we keep Lue, and Dan Gilbert trades away the little youth we have for more aging veterans in some sort of “See we can win without you!” ego trip. For me personally, LeBron going to the Lakers is the worst possible outcome because Lakers fans are insufferable already, and I’m surrounded by them.

Having defended LeBron for years against Kobe “count the ringz” fanboys, I won’t be able to handle those same fans turning face, and becoming his biggest supporter. I know that they’ll turn on him the second they lose in the second round of the playoffs, and I’ll hear a steady stream of them calling in to radio shows proclaiming that “Kobe would have got them to the Finals.” I could accept LeBron going to the Spurs and playing for an actual coach. Watching LeBron on the Lakers would be like seeing your best friend leave you so that he can run off and marry a gold-digger.

Guys, it's not exactly a shocker that the Cavs are operating as though LeBron is leaving. They've been doing it for some time. Operating as if he was staying would mean that they are trading their young pieces without a solid commitment from LeBron.

— Mike Schreiner (@Mike__Schreiner) June 26, 2018

Mike -The worst case scenario is undoubtedly the Cavaliers operating as if LeBron is staying without any firm commitment. Trading young players and draft picks to win now and then having James leaving anyways would leave the franchise in the worst possible position for the future, old and without avenues for improvement. Instead, they should focus on their younger players, but also have concrete plans for immediate improvement to present to James and Rich Paul if they are given a chance to pitch a future with the Cavaliers. This wouldn’t be all that different from knowing they could get Kevin Love, but only executing the trade when James committed to the Cavaliers. If he doesn’t commit, then they can continue with their youth movement.

David – The worst outcome for the Cavs is selling off the young hustle on the team for veteran talent with a higher floor but a ceiling mimicking a creepy basement. I’m talking about the type of basement where one jovial step means you’re cracking your head on something even if you’re under six feet tall. This move is the worst outcome if LeBron stays or goes. It’s only slightly more alright if he stays. At least the team would win.

Ultimately, the Cavs lost the Finals because the ceiling of the players the coaching staff played weren’t high enough, even at peak performance to steal a game. Sure, they challenged the Warriors, but no guy was wild enough to swing the momentum long enough for anything to happen.

Cory – LeBron doing another one and one. LeBron is the greatest athlete Cleveland has ever had, and even with all of his drama, he’s an infinitely better person than Jim Brown. I’m just kind of over him holding us hostage every couple years. I’m sick of him forcing the team to overpay Kluch clients. I’m over not being able to build for a future with him, because he’s always got one foot out the door. I’m over LeBron being on the Cavs.

My biggest fear is that he agrees to one year and the Cavs giving up Sexton, and eating Batum’s contract, and then LeBron could start the exodus next summer as Love, and Walker can both opt out. We’d be back to 2010 futility. Unless he commits longterm to the franchise, I’d wish him well. If he wants to maintain his Bird Rights, and no trade clause, he’ll have to be traded. In that scenario, the Cavs would have some control, and could at least get back some future first round picks.

Nate: I don’t even understand this question. The “Nuclear Option” is a dumb analogy that makes light of real awful things that could happen in the world.  Spin up those centrifuges, ‘Lil Kim  cause this is just basketball. As long as we’re rooting for the Cavaliers next fall, and there’s no actual nuclear war, we’re fine. I know. I’m a hit at parties.