From Distance: Cavs: The Vlog, Prediction Time
2018-06-29four point play….
1. I babble some more in these last few days of NBA Indecision 2018. Here are my bold predictions. Check out the video for my “reasons”.
2. Paul George signs a “one and one” contract with the Lakers.
3. Kawhi Leonard will not be traded to the Lakers this week, and probably not at all.
4. LeBron James stays and signs a max contract with the Cavs. (note: in the time it has taken to upload my video, Bron officially opted out of his deal. I find this to be a good sign.)
Bonus:
Luka Doncic will be the best player from the 2018 Draft. By a lot.
Midnight Madness Live Thread is live…
If LeBron leaves and the Cavs sign Jeff Green and Dwight Howard, I won’t be watching them next season.
They’re not signing Dwight…
Please no for the love of all that is holy.
Dwight wants to go ring chasing with the Warriors. Hilarious.
As many feared, stipidity reigns at the FO in Cleveland. If Bron goes, plan to keep Love. Interest in re-signing Green. Per Vardon. https://www.cleveland.com/cavs/index.ssf/2018/06/sources_cavaliers_intend_to_ke.html “No reason to go backwards.” Other than the Hawks owning your first round pick unless it is top 10 (in 2020 also if not in 2019) and the fact you have zero shot to beat Boston or Philly or Houston without LBJ, much less GSW. If Bron leaves, we should trade Love (though playing through him and trying to up his value is not a terrible idea). But pre-deadline for certain. Try to unload Korver &… Read more »
And hire someone off the Spurs bench to coach. Hammond or Ettore Messina.
Yep. Agree with all of this.
I like Kevin love. Therefore you are wrong.
I like the guy too. However, no way are we turning it around quick enough to justify keeping him or resigning him after two years. He also is probably going to want out this year or next anyway if James leaves. Nor does it justify the almost nonexistent lottery odds (picks 8-14 have less than 6% percent chance at a number one next year even with the odds changes, and 10-14 have less than 3%) we would have for the next two years if we kept him.
Yes. Though to be fair, resigning green and keeping lue is tanking.
Plenty of things get said at this time of year that never come to pass…
Agreed. Also, not in their best interest to announce a fire sale.
No, but since everyone worth trading has at least one full year of fully guaranteed and at least one year of partially guaranteed, they don’t have to, nor will they likely get many bites until 2019. Most of these guys have two years left fully guaranteed. Only a few have partials in 2019-2020. Look at trading guys like JR now and the guys without partials in 2019-2020.
Besides most of these guys probably wouldn’t get traded until the deadline anyway. Why would a team take on an expiring before they have to?
I think LBJ goes to philly if he goes anywhere at all. Makes the most sense bball wise barring LA getting both PG and Kawhi prior to James signing. Stays in the east and a beastly up and coming team gets more beastly. They go to the finals and maybe get a game or two off gs.
The only thing he’s said on the record is that the decision won’t be entirely about basketball… and that his family will have a say in things. Can’t see Bronny et al wanting to be anywhere but Cleveland or L.A.
Well if that is the case, then yeah he may be giving up on chasing the “ghost.” So LA it would probably be. That sucks. Oh well.
Gonna be harder for Bron to recruit this year with Houston, Boston, & maybe Philly are seen as more legit threats to GSW.
Any tidbits or tea leaves?
1) I think Bron is waiting to see if PG13 goes to LA first. Will be interesting to see who commits first. My $ is on PG13.
2) If Kawhi goes to LA, that whole dynamic changes & Bron bolts. Kawhi to Philly or Boston would also disrupt things.
3) Rumor had it Bron wanted to decide early, by the 4th. Four days.
I am sure LBJ wants to see a star there if possible before he signs.
Just listening to Windhorst the last week or so, I’m almost positive he’s going to LA. Windhorst hasn’t said anything definite, but just the way he’s talking/ tweeting, seems very likely he’s going. I’m sure Lebron would like to know for certain PG or Leonard will be there next season, but I bet he goes there even if he’s not certain about those guys. And, btw, screw the Lakers. If they make this happen, I hope they give away all their assets, and then it all blows up on them, like the Howard/ Nash ‘superteam’.
Or the Malone payton superteam.
Ugh. LA would be the worst. I hate the lakers. But I also hate GS. I think I will just stop caring about anything that happens outside of the young guys on the cavs.
Few thoughts: If LeBron does a 1+1 and Love opts out, Cavs actually are in a good (maybe great) salary cap situation for 2019-2020. I’m sure LeBron doesn’t want to waste a year, but if the team can somehow find a way to be competitive this year while avoiding mucking away the cap situation for the future, they could be in position to have room to attract another all star. LeBron could also do himself a favor by committing to Cleveland so other FAs actually know he will be here if they sign. With better coaching, the team theoretically improve… Read more »
+1 I was thinking the same thing. Even if Love opts in they should have lots of room to add talent.
One, opting in takes away his control of his situation. Two, I doubt he wants to place his chances for success on the the cavs ability to lure another top 10 player to Cleveland in free agency. Cleveland just is not the place these top 5-10 guys go to via free agency, even to play with Lebron. That became sickeningly clear when the cavs had cap space for a max contract during the LBJ 1.0 era. Instead, the cavs had to settle for third tier free agents and had to overpay for them.
I agree, he wouldn’t want to put his chances solely on the Cavs ability to lure another top 10 player to Cleveland… but I am sure he believes in his OWN ability to attract someone to come to CLE.
He’s already recruited Love and Wade for LBJ 2.0 – while they’re both not top 10 players, they are/were all-stars who came to play with him.
Wade is washed up. Doesn’t count. Love was via trade. Doesn’t count. He already wanted out of Minny and had very little control over where he went other than making his feelings about resigning known. So saying he would resign with Cleveland at the time of the trade could have been a way to get out. He did resign, but only after making it to the finals with LBJ. Not exactly the same as signing as a Free agent without ever having played for Cleveland or with LBJ.
But he did the same thing in Miami. So it is not just a Gilbert thing. Yes, it was not 1+1, but they mortgaged the future, got old, and could not get younger or recruit with Bron not committed.
Yeah, I get he wants control. My point is that it comes with a price that actually undermines the whole freaking reason he wants control in the first place: to win titles.
Hence, in my view, while I understand his reasoning, I find it short-sighted, self-defeating, and thus, in the end, none too bright.
I should note, when Miami did try to get younger (letting Miller go) it pissed Bron off and was one reason he left.
Not saying it is a good move strategically. Just that it is important. Also I think it was counterproductive in the first few years back. His window is running out now so it may be his benefit to be able to bounce around.
Important to LBJ
I never understand the geography/free agency argument. What are the supposed places free agents are willing to go? LA because Shaq went there 25 years ago? NY because Amare Stoudemire went there? Miami because a free agent went there once? Is there a team that has drawn more than one marquee free agent?
Miami drew two. Bosh before LBJ. Not saying it would always by NY, LA, or Miami. Could be another big market city in a sunny place with a good bball situation. GS is in San Fran basically and drew KD. Also I do think guys have a tendency to stay until the end of their second contract. However, given the choice after that, they probably bolt to a big market in a sunny place, or NY, if they bolt at all. When was the last time (never) you saw a Milwaukee, Minnesota, Indiana, Detroit, Memphis, Cleveland, or any other Midwest… Read more »
Do you really think that Bosh, LBJ, Durant, or even Shaq switched teams because of the weather or the size of the city? It’s not a coincidence that all of those teams had existing talent that immediately led to a championship. I can’t name a free agent who’s been LURED to the Midwest because those 4 guys are almost the only ones who have ever done it.
What? Get your facts straight. Shaq went to LA in 1996. It took three years. It took two for Miami. And that is the point, it doesn’t happen often, but when it does teams in the Midwest don’t draw outside top ten free agents. The cavs did in 2005. Chicago and Cleveland did in 2010. The limited evidence supports the idea that when top ten guys do switch teams they generally go outside the Midwest to big markets. Like I said it doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it almost never favors the Midwest. Lebron being an exception due… Read more »
Should say cavs didn’t in 2005 or 2010 nor Chicago.
And no I don’t think it is just because of the cities themselves. But when given winning situations/contending in both the Midwest and these coastal or big market warmer cities the Midwest teams seem to lose out based on past history.
So it happened 3 times in 22 years and that established a pattern? Get YO facts straight, dawg.
Only data available. What else can we go on?
There is nothing to go on. That’s not a reliable dataset. If you’re going to limit yourself to that then why wouldn’t you count LeBron coming back to the Midwest, or Love signing with the Cavs when he was unrestricted? Because he was already on the Cavs? Why does that matter? Both of them could have signed literally anywhere they wanted.
Because both had situations that they were familiar with and knowingly favorable. James had his hometown and the ability to return a hero. Love already had a year of playing with the team and a competitive finals appearance without himself and Kyrie to justify resigning along with what appeared to be an automatic way back barring injury. That history in both cases is huge. Secondly, it is more to go on than thin air and zero examples of the opposite. Most free agents going to a new team don’t have those kind of known factors. It is a complete unknown… Read more »
With better coaching…..
Hahahahahahaha!
With his constant 1+1 deals, LeBron undermines his team’s ability to recruit/sign/extend players because there is so much incertainty about his future. Which undermines his so called quest to win more titles.
Gilbert is also a horrible leader, despite his willingness to spend. He never re-hires a GM (Griff did pick Bennett #1 in Dan’s defense). He skipped exit interviews (would have been nice to know Kyrie wanted out earlier) & makes poor coaching choices.
If there is no Kawhi, lebron is going nowhere. There is nothing on the Lakers currently that makes basketball sense for Lebron. The cavs have the Lakers best piece from last year in Nance Jr, and they are still basically in charge of the east. Philly wont be as ready as some folks think they are unless Simmons gets a 3 point shot in the offseason, and the celtics dont have legitimate top 10 talent. If lebron wants to go to the finals with a chance again, he signs with cleveland and demands that Lue be gone for a real… Read more »
I’d call Ingram the best piece from last year
Celtics don’t have top 10 talent, but would have 5 of the top 7 players in a series against the Cavs. Plus top 3 coaching.
Kyrie is top 10. Stevens is top 3. Tatum, Horford, & Heyward all top 20.
No one has any clue if Kyrie can still play.
He might have been top 10 before it became clear that he is a head case. That knocks him out of the top 20.
If PG goes there, I think it’s a done deal. May be a done deal, anyway. I doubt Lebron thinks it’s likely they can beat the Warriors, but he may see it as the best of several non ideal choices. It’s already been reported that hordes of players would be eager to join Lakers on min deals if Lebron goes there. If he signs there, hope he’s ready for the media attention…he won’t get the hometown slides from the media, as well as the organization, that he is used to with the Cavs. He also won’t get to essentially run… Read more »
Not making the finals + LeVar is the best option?
I don’t think so.
He and his family may want go live in LA, and he may see brighter prospects for the Lakers…not hard to imagine either or both of those things.
Interesting take from Forbes… I’m inclined to agree. What’s the point of gutting the roster? Randle can be Draymond lite, Ingram could be a great 6th man or secondary wing starter. Seems like patience should be the Lakers strategy… Is a gutted roster with Kawhi and LBJ going to beat GSW or Houston? I’m not sure about that. https://www.yahoo.com/sports/m/cc914468-2dbc-3728-9a25-62ba02edd634/ss_the-lakers-are-moving-towards.html
I don’t understand why the Mavs are so gung-ho on getting DeAndre Jordan instead of going for Cousins/Capela… especially after what he did to them several years ago.
Yeah, it would be seem to make a lot more sense to go after young RFAs like Randle or Gordon and re-sign Noel on the cheap… DJ makes no sense. They aren’t winning short term and he’s not a building block long term (or arguably any term).
Had me till the Noel thing. He’s never re-signing there
Fine, then Looney, Amir Johnson, Baynes, whatever … there are options that don’t involve grossly overpaying a 30-year old center who doesn’t fit in the modern NBA.
What if they told DJ they were going to hook him up with a sweet deal. Then they drag the negotiations out until Capela gets signed. Then the night before they sign the deal they all go to Cubans house, text emojis at each other, and sign Cousins!
From a championship chasing perspective, it makes more sense for LeBron to do a 1:1 for the rest of his career until Bronny comes into the league and LeBron can join him.
Lakers either have to include Ingram now or spurs Gonna walk.
That’s what I was thinking.
I can’t think of a recent player who has been so much trouble with so little return.
A-freaking-men.
Makes the Lakers less likely to land Bron, PG13, or Kawhi this year.
Less appealing. Now perhaps PG13 does not care. But I would run it back with a healthy Robertson & see what happens.
If Lebron is going to stay here, only reason he would opt out is to sign the 5-year super max record setting deal with the Cavs. Otherwise, opting out likely means he’s headed to Lakers.
No it doesn’t. He could do a 1+1 etc. His best interest is to opt out even if he’s staying.
Yeah I pretty much see LeBron doing 1:1 contracts the rest of his career, no matter where he goes.
He would get paid less this upcoming year if he signs a 1+1 in Cleveland as compared to if he had just opted-in to the one year he had left on the contract. From a financial perspective as well as time committed perspective, it would not make sense to opt out and then sign a 1+1 back in Cleveland.
That’s simply not true.
Rachel Nichols said the exact same thing as BL on The Jump today. Another one and one with the Cavs actually costs LeBron money if he only intends to spend one more year in Cleveland. It does buy him time during the FA period to see how things shake out though, and flexibility might be worth more to him than a few hundred thousand bucks.
The ability to sign a 1+1 and give himself an extra year as injury insurance outweighs that entirely.
A five year would give him the ultimate injury insurance.
If locking in extra guaranteed money as injury insurance was something he cared about the most, he could have done that anytime during the last four years.
Collin Sexton will be the best player from the 2018 draft. Cedi Osman will be the best player from his draft class! He stroke looks legit, he learned so much from Kyle on release and form.
First is wishful thinking, second is facts!
The release on those World Cup highlights was verrrrrry Korver-ish!
So you really think Osman will be better than KAT or Porzingis.
Here come the trash articles about how Cleveland’s economy is based on LeBron James (instead of industrial paint manufacture or Office and Administrative Support Occupations).
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/743750002
it’s not as trash is the article claiming Dan Gilbert wants his team back
Think Cleveland Clinic is the largest employer in Cleveland now that has an hq in Ohio.
Lebron is 10 times better than who ever is the next best player in the league. Just needs a half decent roster around him and he can beat anyone, even the warriors
Lebron has opted out! It’s the Cavs, Lakers, or Sixers
Sorry from the resident Korean-American for ruining German soccer and their moods for the rest of 2018
No apology necessary. Germans were classless vs Sweden & deserved to go out.
Not quite as classless as Argentina was vs Croatia, however.
Go South Korea. I was living in Nowon, the last time they were in the World Cup.