Collin Sexton and the Eighth Pick in the Draft

As is often the case for rookies in the NBA, particularly rookie point guards, it’s been a roller coaster of a season for Collin Sexton. While he’s averaging 15 points per game, and shooting a surprising 39.5% from three, there are several concerns as well. Sexton has struggled to finish consistently inside the arc, shooting just 41% on two-point attempts. His defense, thought to be something of a strength coming out of college, has been abysmal. Perhaps most concerning, Sexton is averaging just 2.9 assists despite playing 30.4 minutes per game as the Cavaliers’ starting point guard.

Naturally, Sexton’s struggles have caused questions about his future to arise. Will his defense and finishing improve? Is he really a point guard? Can he be a core piece for the Cavaliers moving forward? While these are all valid questions, there is another one that Cavs fans could ask themselves, are these expectations fair?

Because he was drafted with the Brooklyn Nets’ first-round pick that was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Kyrie Irving to Boston, there seems to be an expectation that Sexton needs to be a star to prove he was worthy of that pick. The problem with that expectation is that the odds of landing a star with the eighth pick in the NBA draft is pretty slim. This isn’t the NFL where starting level players are routinely selected in the third round of the draft. In the NBA, players who are projected to be stars are typically taken in the first five picks of the draft. Yes, there are stars taken as late as the second round, but those players are almost always surprises when compared to their college expectations. When looking at the history of the eighth pick in the NBA Draft, it becomes obvious that it’s highly unlikely a team will select a star with that pick.

Want proof? Then look know farther than the Cleveland Cavaliers’ own roster. Sexton is one of FIVE current Cavaliers who were selected with the eighth pick in the NBA draft. The others are Channing Frye (2005), Brandon Knight (2011), Nik Stauskas (2014), and Marquese Chriss (2016). Of the four, Frye has had the best career, if only because he was an important part of the Cavaliers’ championship team in 2016, as well as their 2017 Finals team. He also played a big role for a Suns team that made the 2010 Western Conference Finals, and is ranked second to Dirk Nowitzki in three pointers made by a player listed at 6’11” or taller. Still, Frye has played for six teams in fourteen seasons and has career averages of 8.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in 22.3 minutes per game. Channing Frye has been a solid role player and great teammate who is deservedly loved in Cleveland, but he’s no star.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OHTO8iRCfKw

While a torn ACL caused Knight to miss all of last season and a good chunk of this season, he has had his moments in the NBA, and is a much closer comp to Sexton. He’s averaged nearly 15 points per game in his career, and was really good during the 52 games he played with Milwaukee during the 2014-15 season before he was traded to the Suns. During that span, Knight averaged 17.8 points and 5.4 assists per game while shooting 40.9% from three and sporting a PER of 18.5 and a VORP of 1.8. But even before tearing his ACL with the Suns and being traded to the Houston Rockets, and then the Cavaliers, Knight had already been traded twice before, and had played with three teams in four seasons. While Knight has certainly been a legitimate NBA player, he’s also a fairly inefficient one, shooting 41% from the field and  35.4% from deep for his career. He’s also a poor defender and doesn’t really have the court vision and passing skills of a true point guard. Knight has been one of those adequate players that teams are always looking to upgrade on. His best role (if healthy) is likely as a microwave scorer off the bench, similar Jordan Clarkson. It’s fair to wonder if the same is true for Sexton.

While Frye and Knight are role players and NBA journeymen, Chriss and Stauskas aren’t even that. Stauskas has played for five teams in five seasons, and that doesn’t count being traded to the Houston Rockets and Indiana Pacers, whom he never suited up for. Stauskas is known as a shooter, but his career mark from deep is just 34.8%. While Stauskas has been solid on stationary catch-and-shoot attempts for his career, he struggles with shooting off the dribble as well as when coming off of screens. He’s also a poor defender who has no other offensive strengths. While Stauskas has a reputation as an excellent teammate, his status as a top ten pick is likely what has kept him in the league for five seasons.

Chriss may not make it that long. While the 21 year old big man has played better since joining the Cavaliers, he remains inconsistent at best. With Chriss, the raw stats don’t tell the whole story. For every explosive dunk or smooth triple, there’s a missed defensive rotation or poor offensive decision. Chriss remains a terrific athlete, but he hasn’t added the necessary muscle for his position and simply has a poor feel for the game. Teams will likely continue to take chances on him, but rumors of attitude problems in previous stops make that far from certain.

The warts of former number eight picks aren’t exclusive to current Cavaliers either. Frank Ntilikina, Stanley Johnson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Terrence Ross, and Al-Farouq Aminu are other recent players who have been selected eighth overall. These players range from quite useful (Aminu) to solid enough (Ross and Caldwell-Pope) to projects with major concerns (Ntilikinia, and Johnson). This is typical of this draft spot, which also counts former Cavaliers Andre Miller, Larry Hughes, and DeSagana Diop among it’s alumni. The last number eight pick to make an All-Star game? Vin Baker, drafted way back in 1993. Yes, there have been plenty of All-Stars drafted after the eighth pick over the years, but history shows that teams drafting eighth are by no means guaranteed a sure thing.

Yes, Collin Sexton has his flaws. They’re definitely concerning, and he needs to address them to become a player who is capable of making a consistent positive impact when he is on the court. He also has shown a tremendous work ethic, competitive fire, and incremental improvement. His shot selection has improved as the season has gone on, and even his passing, while still a concern, has gotten better. Sexton likely won’t ever be a star, and may not even be a starter on a contender, but he could be a solid NBA player for a long time. Given the history of the players selected with the eighth pick in the NBA Draft, that would be a pretty good outcome for Sexton and the Cleveland Cavaliers.