Thoughts On Team Building

With the NBA Draft Lottery taking place tomorrow night, the Cleveland Cavaliers are about to take an important step in the team’s future. If Nick Gilbert is lucky again, the Cavaliers will be selecting Zion Williamson first overall in the NBA Draft. Williamson is the most highly rated college prospect since Anthony Davis and adding him to the fold would drastically change the franchise’s outlook for the future, both on and off the court.

That sounds great, but it likely won’t happen. While the Cavaliers are tied with the New York Knicks and Phoenix Suns for the best odds of winning the lottery, that still gives them just a 14% chance of doing so. Chances are the Cavaliers will draft lower than that, possibly as low as sixth, due to changes in the lottery odds that took effect this season. While that may be upsetting to some fans, it’s by no means the end of the world.

Obviously, there’s real merit to the idea of tanking to acquire star level talent, particularly if a team is not typically a free agent destination. The higher the draft pick the better a team’s chances of adding a player who could someday become an all-star. Tanking over a few seasons would give teams more chances at a high draft pick, and therefore increase their odds of adding a future star. Look no further than the Philadelphia 76ers who have drafted young stars in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, used some of their other assets to trade for Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris, and are now one win away from the Eastern Conference Finals. They had so many high draft picks, they were able to build a core of young stars despite missing on several of their picks, and while they aren’t championship favorites, it’s fair to call the Sixers title contenders. Considering how hard it is to be the final team standing at the end of the season, putting themselves into the elite group that survivor comes from is really all a team can hope for. After that, it’s simply a matter of health, a hot streak at the right time, and a bit of luck.

Still, for every Philadelphia 76ers, there are the New York Knicks or Phoenix Suns that have been terrible for years despite a plethora of high draft picks. This is a slippery slope that’s easy to fall into. Even the most talented young players tend to struggle when they first come to the NBA, and rarely contribute in terms of winning games. Teams have to be patient with them as they grow, but also need to make sure they build winning habits in terms of their style of play and work habits. Unfortunately, NBA teams are rarely patient, they often fire the coaches tasked developing a culture and helping these young players grow before they have the chance to do so. A parade of coaches ensues, giving the young players the feeling that no one in the organization holds them accountable for the losing, and they (logically, given the circumstances) don’t hold themselves accountable either. The draft picks never develop and the losing continues, a vicious cycle that only concludes if and when a new organizational structure is able to be implemented.

This cycle is possibly why the Cavaliers, as they researched how various teams have rebuilt over the years, had made a declaration that they would not tank last season. They had been in that cycle not too long ago themselves, as they were the worst team in the NBA from 2011-2014 while building around Kyrie Irving. While they wound up tied for the second worst record in the NBA this season in spite of their intentions, there are several teams the Cavaliers can look to as models of their rebuilding efforts. These are small and mid-market franchises that have built fun and exciting playoff teams without relying on multiple top picks.

The Brooklyn Nets have been seen as an example of maximizing player development, and with good reason. After making one of the worst in NBA history in 2013 when they acquired Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, and Jason Terry for three first-round picks and a pick swap. Despite having fewer avenues to acquire young talent than any other team in the league, the Nets were able to return to the playoffs just four years after initiating a rebuild with a team built around young players and cap flexibility. How did they do it? When looking at the Nets, two things come to mind; making shrewd trades and free agent signings for affordable young talent, and an emphasis on player development to maximize the potential of that talent. Whether it was signing players such as Joe Harris and Spencer Dinwiddie, taking on the contract of Timofey Mozgov so that they can acquire D’Angelo Russell, trading a solid veteran in Thaddeus Young for the rights to Caris LeVert, or selecting a promising young center in Jarrett Allen with the late first-round pick they did have in 2017, the Nets have acquired players who the majority of the NBA either undervalued or didn’t value at all and turned them into quality rotation players, and in the case of Russell, an All-Star. Head coach Kenny Atkinson and his staff deserve a ton of credit for the environment they have created. This process has allowed Brooklyn to build a solid young core that still has potential for growth, while also opening up significant cap space this summer. While it’s unlikely the Nets will become a title contender without acquiring a superstar focal point, they do have the potential to grow into the type of team that can make consistently solid playoff runs. That may not sound like much (although it’s better than two-thirds of the league), but is it really any different than what the Sixers or Boston Celtics have done the past few years with their abundance of high draft picks?

Obviously, the Cavaliers have the benefit of owning first-round picks that the Nets didn’t, but there’s no guarantee that these picks wind first overall like the 76ers picks did when they drafted Embiid and Simmons. In fact, with the new lottery odds, it’s less likely than ever. That also doesn’t mean the Cavaliers can’t build a sustainable contender based around a star player and other draft picks. Several other teams that aren’t free agent destinations have done so.

Despite playing in a larger market with no state income tax, the Houston Rockets have rarely been a destination for top free agents. Dwight Howard and Chris Paul are the only superstars to join the Rockets as free agents, and they did so to play with another superstar in James Harden. Hakeem Olajuwon and Yao Ming were taken first overall in the few times Houston had the top pick in the draft, and both times the Rockets nailed the pick. Outside of those few the Rockets have traded for the star level players they’ve had over the past 30 years, from Clyde Drexler, to Tracy McGrady, to Harden.

Prior to acquiring Harden in a trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Rockets had spent the previous three seasons after the Yao/T-Mac era just outside of the playoffs despite posting winning records in each of those seasons. General Manager Daryl Morey focused on acquiring young players who rated well analytically and were on team-friendly deals. These players had just as much value as moveable assets as they did as on-court players. Players such as Kyle Lowry, Goran Dragic, Trevor Ariza, and Jeremy Lin spent time with the Rockets as they constantly looked for the opportunity to add their next superstar. They moved some these players for draft picks and other assets until they finally struck gold in acquiring Harden, a young rising star who analytic models loved and whose team wasn’t interested in giving him a max contract. The Rockets were more than happy to do so, and since then they’ve built one of the best teams in the NBA around Harden. While they haven’t made it back to the NBA Finals, much less won a championship, they’ve been one of the few teams with a realistic chance of doing so. That chance is all a team can realistically hope for.

The Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz are two other teams that have built their teams around young stars and other promising players despite a lack of high draft picks. The last times the Nuggets drafted in the top five was when they selected Carmelo Anthony third overall in 2003. While the Jazz selected Dante Exum fifth overall in the 2014 NBA Draft, the foundational pieces of this Jazz team, Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell were selected with the 27th and 13th picks in their respective drafts. Joe Ingles was claimed off of waivers from the Los Angeles Clippers. Royce O’Neale was signed out of Summer League after starting his career overseas. They have committed to head coach Quin Snyder. The fact that they didn’t miss a beat after Gordon Hayward left to sign with the Boston Celtics in 2017 is a testament to the Jazz as an organization.

The Nuggets drafted Jamal Murray seventh overall in 2016, but Gary Harris was acquired during the 2014 draft after being selected 19th overall. Malik Beasley was selected in the same spot in 2016. Monte Morris was taken 51st in 2017. Will Barton was acquired (along with a first-round pick!) in 2015 for Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee. Most amazingly of course was Nikola Jokic, the Nugget’s All-Star centerpiece, being taken 41st overall in 2014. The Nuggets turned decent assets into young players who have developed into an All-Star and several very good players, with the potential to be something more. They were able to convince Paul MIllsap to join them in free agency, and built a team that just went to Game Seven of the Western Conference Semifinals with the majority of its rotation at 24 years old or younger. Head coach Mike Malone and his staff have done a great job with the youngsters and are very well-regarded. The future is bright in Denver.

The Indiana Pacers haven’t drafted drafted higher than tenth in the NBA Draft since 1989. They’ve consistently built winners through a combination of organizational stability, smart drafting, careful trades, shrewd free agent signings, and a clear identity on the court. That identity has gone through several changes over the years, but it’s always the right one for the players on the roster. Like the Jazz, they lost a superstar and followed it up without missing a beat, as the trade of Paul George to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis is a terrific example of a deal that has worked out for both teams involved.

Many people would say that the San Antonio Spurs are the model that mid-market teams (and all teams for that matter) should follow. While that’s a valid point, the Spurs’ foundation was built around a pair of number one picks. David Robinson was a former MVP who missed 76 games in the 1996-1997 season, allowing the Spurs the chance to win the 1997 NBA Lottery and select Tim Duncan with the first pick in the draft. Yes, these two Hall of Famers—arguably the two most selfless superstars in NBA history—combined with Gregg Popovich to create a culture of hard work and accountability that has set the standard in the NBA for two decades. Yes, the Spurs have made amazing draft picks outside of the lottery and even the first round in Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Kawhi Leonard. Yes, they’ve conjured up rotation players out of nowhere with likes of Stephen Jackson and Danny Green. There are so many things that the Spurs do in terms of scouting, player development, and organizational stability that the Cavaliers should emulate. They truly are the gold standard of the NBA. Unfortunately, acquiring two players who have both the character and ability of Duncan and Robinson, the foundation of that machine in San Antonio, is virtually impossible.

When looking at the teams mentioned above, there’s no doubt that high draft picks can help rebuild a team. Still, it’s not the only component needed to build a contender, and likely nowhere near the most important one. When looking what these teams, as well as other championship organizations, have in common, you see an emphasis on smart scouting, good value from draft picks, shrew trades, great asset management, stability in front office and coaching staff, and terrific player development. A culture of accountability is also a must. Whether or not the Cavaliers are even able to exhibit all of these traits is an unknown. Dan Gilbert isn’t exactly known for his patience. Still, if they are able to build the kind of culture and organizational stability as the teams mentioned above, then they will have a chance to build a team that can win at a high level for a long time, regardless of what happens tomorrow night.